ASML Holding | ASML | Long at $680.00NASDAQ:ASML Holding, a developer and servicer of advanced semiconductor equipment systems for chipmakers, dipped backed into my overall, long-term selected simple moving average (SMA). From here, stocks typically bounce or drop, but given the AI boom is far from "over", I anticipate another bounce to eventually close the gap near $1,060. It may show some minor weakness to close the gap in the low $600s and get the bears excited. But, unless the economy further shows major weakness in the semiconductor space, NASDAQ:ASML is in my personal "buy zone" at $680.
Target #1 = $730.00
Target #2 = $915.00
Target #3 = $1,060.00
Asmlholding
ASML KEY S/R ZONE ON THE WEEKLY! MOAT COMPANY! 55% UPSIDE! NASDAQ:ASML just did a Wykoff under it's key Support/ Resistance zone over the last 5 years on the weekly chart! If we hold here and start to bounce upward on the chart, MACD, Stochastic, and RSI we could be in for a major upward move back to All time highs! I don't believe the sell off has been way over done for such a solid MOAT company!
ASML (ASML): Massive Sell-Off - What's next after the $50B loss?We are sure you’ve heard about ASML’s massive drop yesterday, erasing $50 billion in market value within hours following a technical error and the earnings report published a day earlier. ASML, Europe's most valuable tech company and a critical supplier to chipmakers, is now facing doubts—not about its long-term prospects but regarding short-term sales and whether it can continue to outperform the market in the long term.
As always, we’re not focused on intraday trades but are looking for bigger, high-risk-to-reward swing trade setups. To assess this, we’re turning to the Weekly chart to analyze ASML’s most important levels. Our most likely scenario at this point is that the All-Time High represents a wave B, after exactly respecting the 138% Fibonacci extension level. Coupled with the bearish divergence on the RSI, this pullback was expected.
While it's difficult to predict the exact point of reversal, we see $600 as a major psychological support level that could hold in the short term. To reverse the current downtrend, ASML must break above the resistance zone of $850–$895. However, as this is a potential wave ((ii)), even reaching the All-Time High is not out of the question. Merely reclaiming this resistance zone might not be enough to signal a trend change.
We’re keeping an eye on all major support zones, but the largest position we plan to open would be between $250 and $140. While this is still far off, and there will likely be opportunities along the way, this zone would provide the most textbook setup according to Elliott Wave Theory. The recent dip has also opened up more potential plays for the future.
Stay tuned as we monitor the situation for further developments! 🔥
ASML Holding Falls! Short Trade Hits TP1, More Targets AheadASML Holding has shown a strong bearish movement, reaching Take Profit 1 (TP1) at 742.16.
Key Levels
Entry: 792.37 – A short position was initiated at this level, guided by the precision of the Risological Swing Trader.
Stop-Loss (SL): 832.99 – Positioned above recent resistance to protect against a potential reversal.
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 742.16 – Already achieved, confirming the effectiveness of the short setup.
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 660.92 – The next target in line as downward momentum continues.
Take Profit 3 (TP3): 579.68 – A further target if the bearish trend persists.
Take Profit 4 (TP4): 529.48 – The ultimate target, indicating a significant decline.
Trend Analysis
The price is moving firmly below the Risological Dotted trendline, indicating a strong downtrend. The sustained bearish pressure suggests the potential for further declines towards TP2 and beyond.
With TP1 already hit, ASML Holding continues to show promise for further downside, guided by the Risological Swing Trader. The short trade remains positioned to capture additional opportunities as the trend continues to favor the bears.
ASML Perhaps the most structured buy in the market!ASML Holding (ASML) has been trading within a 2-year Channel Up pattern since the October 13 2022 Low. The recent September 10 2024 Low has been at the bottom of the pattern, technically forming its new Higher Low.
Yesterday it broke and closed above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in 3 months, which has been a solid bullish break-out signal on both previous Bullish Legs. Those then went on huge rallies that rose by +87.94% and +91.92% respectively.
As a result, with the 1W MACD about to form the final buy confirmation with a Bullish Cross, we set a 1380 long-term Target on a minimum +87.94% rise from the bottom, that will form an ideal Higher High on the Channel Up.
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ASML supported on the 1D MA50. Bullish unless it breaks.ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) has been trading within a long-term Channel Up (blue) and after it broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) more recently on November 01 2023, it went on a more aggressive (dotted) Channel Up.
The 1D MA50 is the key to its price action as not only did it hold on the previous Higher Low (January 17 2024) but also two days ago, which is technically the latest Higher Low. Technically, as long as it holds, the trend remains bullish and we will be targeting the top of the blue Channel Up at 1200.
If the stock however closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA50, we will take the loss and open a sell instead, targeting 900.00 (-15.57% decline as the March 12 2023 Low).
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ASML: Riding the Wave of AI Innovation in Chip TechnologyASML (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ASML ) emerges as a standout player with a unique position in the AI value chain. The company's recent announcement of next-generation high-NA EUV machines signifies a significant leap forward in chip technology, solidifying its position as a key enabler for semiconductor manufacturers. This article delves into NASDAQ:ASML 's pivotal role in the AI revolution, its technological monopoly, financial performance, and the intriguing dynamics shaping its future.
NASDAQ:ASML 's Cornerstone Role in AI Innovation:
At the heart of AI advancements lies the intricate world of microchip manufacturing, and ASML stands as the linchpin connecting various facets of this industry. The company specializes in lithography machines, particularly the groundbreaking extreme ultraviolet (EUV) machines that etch microscopic patterns on microchips. These machines are integral to producing high-performing, energy-efficient chips as small as 3 nanometers – a critical requirement for AI applications.
Unraveling the Technological Monopoly:
ASML's (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ASML ) prowess lies not only in its cutting-edge technology but also in its unrivaled position as the sole producer of EUV lithography machines globally. This technological monopoly sets ASML apart in today's fiercely competitive landscape, with no real contenders in sight. The recent unveiling of the next-generation high-NA EUV machines reinforces ASML's commitment to innovation, creating a substantial barrier for potential competitors.
Financial Landscape and Market Dynamics:
Despite the immense promise of ASML's (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ASML ) technology, the stock's valuation reflects the challenges associated with its business model. The company's Q4 results showcased robust revenues of 7.2 billion euros, underlining the demand for its products. However, the high cost of its EUV machines contributes to fluctuating sales figures, making quarterly results susceptible to variations in machine sales.
Investor Patience and Future Growth:
ASML (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ASML ) investors face a unique scenario where the company anticipates a plateau in sales for 2024, contradicting the expected trajectory associated with the booming AI industry. Management attributes this to a "transition" year, with 2025 projected to bring robust growth. The strategic foresight of ASML (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ASML ), coupled with the inevitability of continuous AI innovation, positions the company for sustained success, albeit with a need for investor patience during the transitional phase.
Technical Outlook and Investment Considerations:
From a technical standpoint, ASML (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ASML ) Holding has broken the rising trend in the medium to long term, indicating a potentially stronger upward momentum.
Conclusion:
ASML's (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ASML ) role as a pivotal player in the AI value chain, coupled with its technological monopoly and ongoing innovation, paints a compelling picture for investors. While the stock may be trading at a premium, the company's strategic positioning and the undeniable demand for advanced chip technology in the AI era make ASML (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ASML ) a compelling long-term investment.
ASML Holding Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold the regional top on ASML:
nor entered the dip before the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ASML Holding prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 770usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-1-26,
for a premium of approximately $15.85.
And looking at the chart this would be probably the final leg of the Double Top.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
ASML Surges on Record Orders and EarningsNASDAQ:ASML , the chipmaking equipment giant, witnessed a soaring 10% surge in its stock value following the announcement of its fourth-quarter earnings. The company reported record orders, outstripping analysts' expectations, and achieved a net profit of 2 billion euros ($2.2 billion) with sales reaching 7.2 billion euros ($7.8 billion). While this stellar performance delighted investors, a cloud of uncertainty looms as NASDAQ:ASML cautions about potential impacts on future sales to China due to new export restrictions.
Record-Breaking Performance:
NASDAQ:ASML 's stellar financial results for the fourth quarter showcased the company's robust performance in the face of a challenging economic landscape. Net profit increased by an impressive 9% from the previous year, reaching 2 billion euros, while sales hit 7.2 billion euros, surpassing analyst estimates. The star of the show was the record-breaking net bookings, soaring to an unprecedented 9.2 billion euros, primarily driven by robust demand for NASDAQ:ASML 's cutting-edge equipment.
Dividend Increase:
Despite the uncertainty in global markets, NASDAQ:ASML expressed confidence by announcing a dividend for the year of 6.10 euros ($6.65) per ordinary share, signifying a 5.2% increase over the previous year. Shareholders will also receive an interim dividend of 1.45 euros ($1.58) per share in February, underscoring the company's commitment to delivering value to its investors.
China Export Concerns:
While basking in the glory of its impressive financial performance, NASDAQ:ASML did not shy away from addressing potential challenges ahead. The company warned that future sales to China could face headwinds due to new export restrictions. NASDAQ:ASML anticipates a 10-15% decline in deliveries to China in 2024, signaling a potential impact on its revenue from this critical market. The specifics of the export restrictions remain unclear, but they highlight the growing complexities in the global trade landscape.
Investor Response:
In response to the mixed signals from NASDAQ:ASML 's earnings report, the stock price soared to $860.04, reflecting a 10.6% increase as of midday on the announcement day. The market's positive reaction indicates investor confidence in NASDAQ:ASML 's ability to navigate challenges and capitalize on the strong demand for its advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
Conclusion:
NASDAQ:ASML 's remarkable performance in the fourth quarter, marked by record orders and earnings that exceeded expectations, showcases its resilience and dominance in the chipmaking equipment industry. However, the cautionary note about potential challenges in the Chinese market adds an element of uncertainty to the otherwise positive narrative. Investors will closely monitor how NASDAQ:ASML navigates these hurdles and sustains its growth trajectory in an ever-evolving global economic landscape.
ASML Holding Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold the top here:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ASML Holding prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 140usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-10-20,
for a premium of approximately $16.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
ASML Holding Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain of ASML Holding prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 760usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2023-7-21,
for a premium of approximately $20.55.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
ASML Holding in a daily flag.ASML Holding - 30d expiry - We look to Buy a break of 591 (stop at 559)
Daily signals are bullish.
There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end.
Short term momentum is bullish.
This stock has seen good sales growth.
A break of the recent high at 588 should result in a further move higher.
The bias is to break to the upside.
The previous swing high is located at 581.
Our profit targets will be 669 and 689
Resistance: 588 / 600 / 620
Support: 552 / 540 / 520
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group.
Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
Selling AMSL at 50% pullback.ASML Holding - 30D expiry - We look to Sell at 484.65 (stop at 501.10)
Trade idea is provided by a third FCA regulated party.
Daily pivot is at 496.30.
The primary trend remains bearish.
The 1 day moving average should provide resistance at 480.00.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
We look for a temporary move higher.
Levels close to the 50% pullback level of 491.50 found sellers.
Break of yesterdays low would confirm bearish momentum.
Our profit targets will be 445.55 and 437.51
Resistance: 472.00 / 485.00 / 500.00
Support: 455.00 / 445.00 / 430.00
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses