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From Fiat to Crypto: A Pragmatic View on Cross-Asset USD Impact1. Introduction: Why Understanding USD Impact Matters The U.S. dollar (USD) plays a pivotal role in shaping global financial markets, especially for assets denominated in dollars, such as S&P 500 Futures (ES/MES). Its movements affect equity market flows, international capital dynamics, and, ultimately, price trends for USD-denominated instruments. However, traditional methods of gauging USD strength often fall short of capturing the nuanced interplay between fiat currencies and emerging digital assets. To bridge this gap, we introduce a pragmatic and dynamic solution: the USD Proxy. By combining a carefully weighted mix of key global currencies (Euro and Yen) with Bitcoin (BTC), this proxy provides a comprehensive and CME-specific lens for understanding USD strength. It is a modern approach to assess the dollar's “true” influence on equity markets, particularly the S&P 500 Futures. 2. The USD Proxy: A Pragmatic Cross-Asset Index The USD Proxy is built to reflect real-time market dynamics, offering traders a potentially more relevant measure of the dollar’s impact. Unlike static indexes, this proxy is dynamic, continuously adjusting based on three major components: Euro Futures (6E): Representing the largest fiat currency trading block. Japanese Yen Futures (6J): Capturing the Asian market's influence. Bitcoin Futures (BTC): Adding a layer of innovation by integrating cryptocurrency, which operates independently of traditional fiat systems. The weighting is determined by notional values, market prices, and volume-weighted activity as volumes change and evolve through time, ensuring the proxy adapts to liquidity and relative importance. This structure provides a balanced view of USD strength across fiat and crypto markets, making it highly applicable to modern trading. 3. Adjusting S&P 500 Futures Using the USD Proxy To uncover the “true” equity market performance, the S&P 500 Futures can be adjusted using the USD Proxy. The formula is straightforward: Adjusted S&P 500 Futures = S&P 500 Futures Price x USD Proxy Value This adjustment neutralizes the effects of USD strength or weakness, revealing the core price action of the equity market. By doing so, traders can distinguish between moves driven by dollar fluctuations and those stemming from genuine market trends. For example, during periods of a strengthening USD, the unadjusted S&P 500 Futures may appear weaker due to currency pressure. However, the adjusted version may provide a clearer picture of the underlying equity market, enabling traders to make more informed decisions. 4. Regular vs. Adjusted S&P 500 Futures: Key Insights The comparison between regular and USD Proxy-adjusted S&P 500 Futures charts could reveal critical divergences that may have been often overlooked. These divergences highlight how currency fluctuations can obscure or exaggerate the equity market’s actual performance. For instance, while the S&P 500 Futures have recently reached new all-time highs, some market participants may view this as an indication of the market being overpriced. However, when adjusted using the USD Proxy, the chart reveals a different reality: the S&P 500 Futures are far from their highs. This adjustment aims to neutralize the currency's impact, uncovering that the recent record-breaking levels in the unadjusted chart are likely largely influenced by USD dynamics rather than true underlying equity market performance. 5. Trading Opportunities in Adjusted S&P 500 Futures The adjusted S&P 500 Futures chart opens up new possibilities for traders to identify actionable insights and anomalies. By neutralizing the currency effect, traders can: Spot Relative Overperformance: Identify instances where the adjusted chart shows strength compared to the regular chart, signaling robust underlying equity market dynamics. Capitalize on Potential Anomalies: Detect price-action discrepancies caused by abrupt currency moves and align trades accordingly. Refine Entry and Exit Points: Use the adjusted chart especially during high-volatility periods influenced by the USD. 6. Trading Application: A Long Opportunity in Adjusted S&P 500 Futures Trade Setup: o Instrument: S&P 500 Futures (ES) or Micro S&P 500 Futures (MES). o Entry Point: Around 5900.00 o Targets: Primary Target: 6205.75 (aggressive traders, Fibonacci extension level). Conservative Target: 6080.00 (moderate traders, earlier Fibonacci extension). o Stop Loss: Below the entry, calculated to maintain a 1:3 reward-to-risk ratio. Rationale: The adjusted S&P 500 Futures chart highlights a technical setup where the price is reacting to: Breakout to the Upside: The adjusted chart is breaking out of a key resistance level, signaling potential continuation of upward momentum. The 20-SMA: Acting as dynamic support, aligning with recent price behavior. Technical Support Level: A key horizontal level. These converging factors suggest the potential for a bullish continuation, targeting Fibonacci extension levels at 6205.75 or 6080.00. The adjusted chart provides added confidence that the move is not overly influenced by USD fluctuations, grounding the analysis in equity-specific dynamics. Trade Mechanics: o Instrument Options: ES (full-size contract), with a point value of $50 per point. MES (micro-sized version), designed for smaller accounts or precision risk management, with a point value of $5 per point—10 times smaller than the full-size ES contract. o Margins (approximate, depending on broker): ES: Approximately $15,000 per contract. MES: Approximately $1,5000 per contract—10 times smaller than the ES margin. Execution Plan Example: Place Buy Limit Order at 5900.00. Set Stop Loss below the entry, maintaining a 1:3 reward-to-risk ratio. Take partial profits or adjust stop losses as the price approaches 6080.00 for conservative traders or 6205.75 for aggressive targets. 7. Conclusion: A Fresh Perspective on USD and Equity Futures By introducing the USD Proxy and applying it to S&P 500 Futures, traders gain a powerful tool to assess market dynamics. This cross-asset approach—spanning fiat and crypto—bridges the gap between traditional and modern financial metrics, offering unparalleled insights. The adjusted S&P 500 Futures chart neutralizes currency distortions, revealing the market's true movements. Whether identifying divergences, refining trading strategies, or uncovering hidden opportunities, this method empowers traders to approach the market with clarity and precision. As markets evolve, tools like the USD Proxy demonstrate the importance of integrating diverse assets to stay ahead in a complex trading environment. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by traddictiv
ChainLink Analysis For long-termHello Traders, here is the full analysis for Chainlink let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions. I suggest you keep this analysis on your watch list and see what will happen and will my analysis will happen!!! Today I want to talk about LINKUSD in a daily time frame Before that, I want to remember It's not financial advice. I'm just sharing my view and opinion of the chart. Please see and think about that. The situation is so complicated. I will tell you the best zone to buy and hold Chainlink for the long term to get a huge profit.so, please be patient. As you see in the chart, I want to explain everything by the Fibonacci Channel. Because it's so simple and easy to show you. I draw 3 Green Zone to show you all the support zones. I believe that the first green zone will be broken. Sooner or later but it's sure. So let's focus on the second one. I think it could be a strong zone to support the price but I think the market maker do anything to lose that to the third support zone. I'm sure the 3rd green zone is the best place to buy and hold link for long term. it's really my favorite place. I will put my orders in this zone. because I believe that the future of Chainlink is bright. If you have any questions, please don't hesitate to contact me. Wish you the best Sincerely Yours Ho3ein.mnD
BINANCE:LINKUSDShort
by Sticky-Stock
8
New Free Indicator: Correlation AnalysisAvailable in TradingView's indicators Library or directly from my profile (Correlation Analysis). As the name suggests, this indicator is a market correlation analysis tool. It contains two main features: - The Curve: represents the historic correlation coefficient between the current chart and the “Reference Market” input from the settings menu. It aims to give more depth to the current correlation values found in the second feature. - The Screener: this second feature displays all correlation coefficient values between the (max) 20 markets inputs. You can use it to create several screeners for several market types (crypto, forex, metals, etc.) or even replicate your current portfolio of investments and gauge the correlation of its components. Aside from these two previous features, you can visually plot the variation rate from one bar to another along with the covariance coefficient (both used in the correlation calculation). Finally, a simple “signal” moving average can be applied to the correlation coefficient. I might add alerts to this script or even turn it into a strategy to do some backtesting. Do not hesitate to contact me or comment below if this is something you would be interested in or if you have any suggestions for improvement. Enjoy!!
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by LucasVivien
2
LANDSHARE HAS THE STRONGEST AND THE BEST POTENTIAL.This is my technical analysis for this great project called LANDSHARE where a real asset are tokenized specifically real estate. The project offers an investment into the real estate " TOKENIZED ASSET " for only 50$ . This project has a great potential to reach 600$ based on the technical analysis and on the other hand the fundamental analysis say it has the potential to reach 1000$ . Also the crypto space may get involved in the real estate businesses where LANDSHARE will be the face of it. The team behind LANDSHARE project are doing amazing things to improve the project and developing it in the right way. Not financial advice.
Long
by hgpvfd132
3
uvxy short volume uptickweve slightly gained in vix, and the ftz from top of short leads out to where uvxy should make its low sub $4... if we examine the capitalcom vs finra we see that contango in vix is still coagulating around a major demand zone low into its decay. i still think split will be bullish for vix, but perhaps we clear the pop in fomc, and the loose steam is actually bullish in the long run i would still expect vix to lose weekly, as well as lose by the end of ftz.
UShort
by cerealpatterns
Selection & how to operateThe obvious part if you've understood all the previous posts. It's easier to start with how Not to trade . Wrong - cherry picking "strong" levels. Every level is a level, not better & not worse than another one. Choosing the supposedly strong levels is a subjective thing that reduces expected value & consistency. Right - operating at each level on a given resolution, you either expect a level to repel prices or to be consumed, you operate accordingly at every level. The more you operate, better for the market, higher your revenues. If there too many levels for you, instead of cherry picking you just move to a lower resolution. Some levels can be effectively skipped because of risk & sizing consideration, but skipping levels an cherry picking levels are 2 completely different mindsets. Wrong - stopping operation after N loosing trades. Right - controlling equity as explained in "Sizing & how to manage risk". If you're making loosing trades in a row, you don't stop, you just hit zero size, then you imagine trades or execute on simulator, when your size comes back to a non-zero value you come back to the real account. More you operate - better for the business. Wrong - waiting for a "confirmation". If you don't have a firm expectation whether a level will repel prices or will be consumed, you don't know what you're doing, read all the posts and understand how it all works. Right - knowing in advance what you gonna do at each level & keep reevaluating it in real time. Wrong - making reentries. The activity around levels, especially how levels get cleared, is very well defined. After the scaling in is complete, you either exit at loss/at breakeven when a level gets cleared / positioned in the unexpected side. Or, you scale out while being in the money. Right - unless there was a mistake caused by a misclick or smth like dat, reentries is an irrelevant concept. Wrong - working out insurance after the entry. Right - a hedge should be bought BEFORE scaling in, same goes about placing the stop-losses. How to operate Asset selection Not many people think about it, but it makes sense not only to provide liquidity when & where there's not much of it, but also to consume excessive liquidity when & where there's too much of it, because both cases are unhealthy for the markets. So, we have 2 types of trading instruments then: 1) overquoted ones, such as GE, ZN, or ES many years ago; 2) underquoted ones, such as CL, NQ; How to distinguish dem? One way is to take a look at volumes on highest resolution cluster/footprint chart, and compare em with the actual number of bid/asks in the DOM. ZN for example is hugely overquoted, you'll notice that: it has aprox 1000 contract at every bid/ask price, but when these limit orders start to get consumed at one price, the rest orders at the same price just gets cancelled, and you see lesser values on your footprint/cluster chart. The opposite happens on underquoted instruments, they need liquidity. Why it matters? You operate the same way on both under and overquoted vehicles, but: 1) on underquoted vehicles you mainly use limit orders, you provide liquidity; 2) on overquoted vehicles you mainly use market orders, you remove liquidity; Exits at loss vs attempting to get out around breakeven Both are legit, the latter gives more freedom, but implies not using stop-losses so you have to know 4 sure what's happening and what you're doing. That's how you trade with stoplosses. 1) In case of trading pops from positioned levels, you simply exit when the support/resistance gets cleared, in case of clearing by price it means you'll have an L, no big deal tho; 2) In case of trading pushes through positioned levels (aka trading clearings aka trading consumptions), same, you're getting an L if you hit the invalidation point. The invalidation point for these trades is the opposite border of the positioning sequence. This border is found the same ways as the front level, just at the opposite side; 3) Trading during a positioning itself. Makes least sense to trade with stop-losses, but in theory: taking an L at the next level past the level you expect to be positioned this or that way. If there is no level past you current level, you try to make a projection, smth like its shown on ZN chart of this post, imagine you were trading positioning of 112'19. Without stops it's almost the same, it's just instead of taking an immediate loss after an invalidation event, you exit at breakeven when price comes back to the entry zone (in most cases it does). If prices don't go back and hit another level, you simply continue trading there, if that new level you're working with now is supposed to act in the opposite direction from the previous one, you simply reverse your position. If that new level is supposed to work in the same direction as the previous one, you're holding your position further. This kind of operation assumes very high win rate, low RR ratio and very rare but significant losses. However, if the unexpected happens 2 times in row, chances are the problem is on your side xD Finally 1) Monitor non-market data in order not to be caught against the momentum surges (eg unless you're a DMM, trading at Jobless Claims release is a BAD IDEA); 2) Pick your main resolution that way you'll be satisfied with the frequency of your operations; 3) Work with all the levels there; 4) Never approach the next level while having a full position, always offload risk on the way, unless you expect the next level to be cleared/positioned in the same direction; 5) Always control risks; 6) Understand that it's all about doing the right thing, and it's totally possible to understand what is right by gaining all the info from all the data. You should end up trading 100% of positioned levels, trading 50% of positioning processes demselves, and rofl never try to trade smth that looks like "a new level is forming now".
CBOT:ZN1!Education
by gorx1
$10,000 Bitcoin In Play, Crypto Winter Is Here, $20k Resistance.In this video I am highlighting how we may see a $10,000 Bitcoin this cycle due to where we are at on the weekly oscillators and the very negative macro conditions effecting the market. We may get a retest back to the $19,000 level on the daily but $20,000 is now serving as a major resistance. I believe it is unlikely that we get above a $20,000 Bitcoin anytime soon but I could be wrong. These next couple of months are looking pretty weary for cryptocurrency right now. Especially the events around FTX could have cascading effects across the entire ecosystem. This is still the beginning. As bad as all this is it is good for cryptocurrency and will only make Bitcoin and the ecosystem more resilient. This needs to happen for us to get a major reset in the market. I do personally believe there will be very exciting buying opportunities in the near future and we will have another major bull cycle. But as of now we are heavily entrenched in this bear market and we're still going through this cycle. Be careful out there. Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency isn't dead. Much peace, love, health, and wealth! Trade safe.
by peacefuljustin
Short Term Profit Trade Idea - Check Stop Loss and Take Profit!Sentiment: Bearish (short term) Entry Price: Orange Line Horizontal Target Price: $42,000 Take Profit Price: $42,500 Stop Loss: $45,100 (just above resistance) *using Pionex reverse leverage grid robot, which lets me lock up my BTC and loan 5x USDT for my trade. I control the amount of grids and profit/loss per grid….highly recommend. Switching over to Margin grid as soon as BTC bounces off the support of $42K. From $42K, we are looking at target price of $50K-$56K with new support at $45K. Buy Dips and Eat Chips.
Short
by Fabreezio
What are stocks and how do they work?Stocks are exchange traded securities that give rights of ownership to their holder. Normally, they are bought and sold publicly on the stock market exchange; however, private transactions of stocks are also possible. Commonly, the purpose of issuing stock by a company is to raise capital needed for its operations. This process of raising funds allows for fast expansion of capital and company's businesses. Illustration 1.01 Picture above shows the weekly chart of Apple stock which is the biggest of all stocks in terms of market capitalization. Stocks are also called equities and their units are called shares. Owner of a stock is then called shareholder and emitent of the stock is called the issuer. Shares entitle a shareholder to the corresponding ownership of the company's assets and profit. However, a shareholder does not own the company itself; additionally, a shareholder does not take any legal liability for a company's actions. This is because a company is viewed as its own legal entity. Shareholders can be either major or minor. Major shareholders hold over 50% of outstanding shares in a company while minor shareholders hold less than 50% of outstanding shares in a company. Stocks and shares There is only a slight difference between the terms “stocks'' and “shares”. The term “stocks” is more general and can refer to a single company or broad group of companies. The term “shares'' usually refers to one particular company. However, nowadays, these two terms are used interchangeably. Separation of ownership and control Separation of ownership and control is associated with publicly traded companies. It refers to claims on management's decision making and claims on corporation's assets and profit. In publicly traded companies shareholders have limited rights to control a company; shareholders possess only legal claims to the company's profit and assets. Voting rights Voting rights represent a shareholder's ability to vote on policy matters within a company. These matters may include issuing new shares, appointing members to board of directors, approving acquisitions and mergers, etc. Common stock and preferred stock There are two categories of stocks: common stocks and preferred stocks. Common stocks entitle a shareholder to vote at shareholders' meetings and to receive dividends paid by a company. Common stocks have usually better yield over the long-term, however, at the cost of higher risk in case of liquidation of a company. Preferred stocks differ from common stocks in that they usually come with limited or no voting rights at all. In addition to that, preferred stocks have higher claims on dividends and distribution of assets by a company. This means that in case of liquidation of a company, preferred shareholders have priority over common shareholders. In such an event, common shareholders get paid only after creditors, bondholders, and preferred shareholders were paid. Illustration 1.02 Illustration above shows the daily chart of Philip Morris Inc. stock. It also shows quarterly dividend intervals above the timeline (blue D in circle). Dividends paid to investors were equal to 1.20 USD per share. Dividends Dividend represents the distribution of corporate profits to eligible shareholders. Many stock titles tend to pay dividends to their investors on a monthly, quarterly, semi-annually or annually basis. These dividends can be either in the form of cash or stock. Typically, common shareholders are eligible for dividend payments when they hold the stock before the ex-dividend date. Some companies choose not to pay dividends and instead they reinvest corporate profit back into the company. Stocks categorization 1. Growth stocks - Growth stocks have higher earnings and grow at a faster pace than the market average. They are normally bought with the purpose of capital appreciation. Growth stocks rarely pay dividends. 2. ncome stocks - These types of stocks pay dividends to their investors on a regular basis. Income stocks are commonly bought with the purpose to generate consistent income. 3. Value stocks - Value stocks are stocks that have a low price-to-earnings ratio. 4. Blue-chip stocks - Blue-chip stocks are the large companies that are well known and have a stable history of growth. 5. Penny stocks - These stocks are small public companies whose shares normally trade below price of 1 USD/per share. Illustration 1.03 Picture above shows the monthly chart of Tesla Inc. stock. It is an example of the growth stock which appreciated more than 20 000% since 1st June 2010. DISCLAIMER: This content serves solely educational purposes.
NASDAQ:AMZNEducation
by Tradersweekly
4
Price analysis 10/22: BTC, ETH, BNB, ADA, XRP, SOL, DOT, DOGE.Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) have each witnessed competitive income-reserving after hitting their respective new all-time excessive. This shows that buyers who had sold on rumors of a Bitcoin alternate-traded fund booked profits following the successful release of the ProShares’ Bitcoin Strategy change-traded fund (ETF) (BITO).The bulls tried to degree a recovery in Bitcoin after the release of the second BTC futures-connected ETF by means of digital asset manager Valkyrie on Oct. 22 however met with sturdy promoting stress at higher degrees. The promoting has pulled the greed stage on the Crypto Fear and Greed Index from eighty four on Oct. 21 to 75 on Oct. 22.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by Susan28100
VeChain (VET) Is Priming to Break Resistance At $0.14 Cents VeChain is a pumper. It was one of the altcoins to experience a very heavy loss in May officially going from $0.28 cents to bottoming out at $0.05 cents in July. An eye watering 80% loss from its all time high. As of right now VeChain has been trading sideways from $0.11 cents to $0.14 for the past 3-4 weeks. Currently we're oversold on the daily stochastic RSI and still have some run-up on the original RSI. I believe we can hit over $0.14 cents this month and flip this huge resistance in to support with all the positive momentum coming into the market. Once we break above the Fibonacci Level 0.382 there will be a great chance to run-up to the 0.5 level at $0.16 cents. Also the Bitcoin dominance has been dropping which is good for some positive altcoin price action. VeChain is still fundamentally a very powerful cryptocurrency with virtually no competitors. The amount of partnerships VeChain has is vast and will continue to expand it's use case into many different industries. VeChain will do well in this upcoming phase in the bull market. If the chance presents itself again to get in at $0.10 cents or below it would be a nice level to add to the bags. Support: $0.11 Cents Resistance: $0.14 Cents We're overbought on the 4 hour time frames to keep that in mind. Cheers! Much peace, love, health, and wealth!
Long
by peacefuljustin