Potential key reversal bottom detected for JHXAwait signals for entry such as DMI/ADX and/or RSI swing to the bullish direction.
Stop loss for the trade involving ASX:JHX (and indication that this trade is an absolute 'no-go') is any trade below the low of the signal day of 21st March (i.e.: any trade below $45.52).
Asx200
Bearish potential detected for WHCEntry conditions:
(i) lower share price for ASX:WHC along with swing up of the DMI indicators and swing down of the RSI indicator, and
(ii) observation of market reaction at the support level at $5.55.
Stop loss for the trade would be, dependent of risk tolerance:
(i) above the resistance level from the open of 21st February (i.e.: above $5.80),
(ii) above the resistance level from the open of 13th January (i.e.: above $5.91), or
(iii) above the resistance level from the open of 30th December (i.e.: above $6.00).
ASX to turnaround?AU200AUD - 24H EXPIRY
Price action has continued to trend strongly lower and has stalled at the previous support near 7750.
Price action looks to be forming a bottom.
Further upside is expected.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
A move through 7900 will confirm the bullish momentum.
The measured move target is 8100.
We look to Buy at 7850 (stop at 7750)
Our profit targets will be 8050 and 8100
Resistance: 7900 / 8000 / 8100
Support: 7850 / 7800 / 7750
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Potential key reversal bottom detected for NHCAwait signals for entry such as DMI/ADX and/or RSI swing to the bullish direction.
Stop loss for the trade involving ASX:NHC (and indication that this trade is an absolute 'no-go') is any trade below the low of the signal day of 14th March (i.e.: any trade below $3.64).
ASX200/AUS200 "Australia 200" Indices Market Bearish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
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Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the ASX200/AUS200 "Australia 200" Indices Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish thieves are getting stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bearish loot at any price - the heist is on!
however I advise placing Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest.
Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at (8360) swing Trade Basis Using the 3H period, the recent / swing high or low level.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
Target 🎯: 8000 (or) Escape Before the Target
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📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Sentimental Outlook:
ASX200/AUS200 "Australia 200" Indices Market is currently experiencing a Bearish trend in short term, driven by several key factors.
⭐Fundamental Analysis
Earnings: Q4 2024 EPS growth strong for ASX 200 firms (e.g., banks, miners); Q1 2025 prelims suggest resilience—bullish.
Rates: RBA at 4.35% (stable, Feb 2025)—high yields vs. ECB (2.5%) pressure equities—bearish.
Inflation: Australia at 2.8% (Jan 2025)—above RBA’s 2-3% target, mixed impact.
Growth: GDP ~1.5% (Q4 2024 est.)—steady, mildly bullish.
Geopolitics: U.S.-China tariffs shift trade to Australia—bullish for miners.
⭐Macroeconomic Factors
U.S.: Fed at 3-3.5%, PCE 2.6%—USD softness aids AUD—bullish (Eurostat/U.S. data).
Eurozone: PMI 46.2—stagnation pressures global equities—bearish
Global: China 4.5%, Japan 1%—slow growth, commodity demand soft—bearish (ECB forecasts).
Commodities: Iron ore ~$100/ton, oil $70.44—stable, neutral for ASX miners/energy (global data).
Trump Policies: Tariffs (25% Mexico/Canada, 10% China)—benefits Australian exports—bullish.
⭐Global Market Analysis
Equity Markets: S&P 500 at 5,990, DAX ~19,000—range-bound, neutral correlation with ASX.
Commodities Influence: Stable mining/energy sectors (BHP, Rio Tinto) support ASX—bullish.
Liquidity: High trading volume reflects global interest—bullish stability.
⭐Commitments of Traders (COT) Data
Speculators: Net long ~60,000 contracts (down from 70,000)—cautious bullishness (global futures).
Hedgers: Net short ~65,000—stable, locking in highs.
Open Interest: ~130,000 contracts—steady global interest, neutral.
⭐Market Sentiment Analysis
Retail: 55% short contrarian upside—bullish potential.
Institutional: Mixed—optimism for miners, caution on rates—neutral.
Corporate: Firms hedge at 8,600-8,650—neutral.
Social media Trends: Bearish bias to 8,200-8,160—bearish short-term (
⭐Positioning Analysis
Speculative: Longs target 8,675-8,700, shorts aim for 8,080-8,000.
Retail: Shorts at 8,568-8,600—squeeze risk if price rises.
Institutional: Balanced, commodity-focused optimism.
⭐Next Trend Move
Technical:
Support: 8080-8000
Resistance: 8,675-8,700
Below 8,080 targets 8,000; above 8,675 aims for 8,750.
Short-Term (1-2 Weeks): Dip to 8,000 if risk-off persists; rebound to 8,700 if support holds.
Medium-Term (1-3 Months): Range 8,080-8,800, tariff-driven.
⭐Overall Summary Outlook
ASX 200 at 8,080.00 balances bullish fundamentals (earnings, tariffs, commodity stability) with bearish pressures (global slowdown, RBA rates, sentiment). COT shows cautious longs, positioning suggests short-term caution, and global trends support a dip before recovery. Short-term downside to 8,000 likely, with medium-term upside to 8,800 if macro stabilizes.
📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
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Potential outside week and bullish potential for RMSEntry conditions:
(i) higher share price for ASX:RMS above the level of the potential outside week noted on 31st January (i.e.: above the level of $2.48).
Stop loss for the trade would be:
(i) below the low of the outside week on 28th January (i.e.: below $2.26), should the trade activate.
ASX to find buyers at market price?AU200AUD - 24H expiry
Price action has continued to trend strongly lower and has stalled at the previous support near 8150.
Price action looks to be forming a bottom.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
A move through 8250 will confirm the bullish momentum.
The measured move target is 8300.
We look to Buy at 8175 (stop at 8125)
Our profit targets will be 8275 and 8300
Resistance: 8250 / 8275 / 8300
Support: 8200 / 8175 / 8150
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Bullish potential detected for QUBEntry conditions:
(i) breach of the upper confines of the Darvas box formation for ASX:QUB
- i.e.: above high of $4.04 of 28th November (most conservative entry), or
(ii) swing up of indicators such as DMI/RSI along with a test of prior level of $4.00 from 25th November.
Stop loss for the trade (based upon the Darvas box formation) would be:
(i) below the support level from the low of 13th December (i.e.: below $3.80).
ASX 200 futures (SPI 200) stablising around 8200The ASX 200 futures market has fallen close to 5% from its all-time high, with 5 of the 7 candles since the top being bearish. However, the daily RSI (2) reached oversold on Friday, a bullish pinbar formed on Monday and a small bullish divergence is now forming on the daily and 1-hour chart. The pinbar low also found support at a weekly VPOC (volume point of control) and weekly S1 pivot.
Given the selloff came in a relatively straight line, I cannot help but suspect at least a minor bounce is due.
The near-term bias remains bullish while prices hold above last week’s low, and bulls could seek dips towards 8200 / 8191 VPOC area. 8300 and the weekly pivot point at 8345 could make viable upside targets for bulls.
Potential outside week and bullish potential for HLIEntry conditions:
(i) higher share price for ASX:HLI above the level of the potential outside week noted on 17th January (i.e.: above the level of $4.65).
Stop loss for the trade would be:
(i) below the low of the outside week on 13th January (i.e.: below $4.44), should the trade activate.
ASX intraday dips continues to attract buyers.AU200AUD - 24h expiry
Trend line support is located at 8500.
Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 8500 level.
A move through 8550 will confirm the bullish momentum.
The measured move target is 8675.
Short term RSI has turned positive.
We look to Buy at 8500 (stop at 8440)
Our profit targets will be 8660 and 8675
Resistance: 8550 / 8600 / 8675
Support: 8525 / 8500 / 8450
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
ASX200 outlook ahead of RBA Rate Decision The ASX200 (AUS200) price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term prevailing uptrend. The recent intraday price action appears to be a corrective pullback. towards the previous consolidation price range and also the rising support trendline zone.
The key trading level is at the 8490 level, the previous consolidation price range, and also rising support trendline zone. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 8490 level could target the upside resistance at 8570 followed by the 8620 and 8650 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed loss of the 8490support and a daily close below that level would negate the bullish outlook opening the way for a further retracement and a retest of 8450 support level followed by 8420.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
ASX200 (AUS200) uptrend continuation retest 8460 level?The ASX200 (AUS200) price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term prevailing uptrend. The recent intraday price action appears to be a corrective pullback. towards the previous consolidation price range and also the rising support trendline zone.
The key trading level is at the 8460 level, the previous consolidation price range, and also rising support trendline zone. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 8460 level could target the upside resistance at 8570 followed by the 8620 and 8650 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed loss of the 8460support and a daily close below that level would negate the bullish outlook opening the way for a further retracement and a retest of 8400 support level followed by 8376.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
ASX 200: Why I don't trust today's 'record high'The ASX 200 reached a record high in today's session, but it's not a convincing record high in my books. If anything, it could signal yet another false break. Using the ASX cash and futures market alongside Wall Street indices, I delve into why we need to be on guard for another bull trap before the real move potentially begins.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
ASX200 H4 | Bullish uptrend to continue?ASX200 (AUS200) is falling towards a swing-low support that intersects with an ascending trendline and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 8,465.34 which is a swing-low support that intersects with an ascending trendline and aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 8,410.00 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support.
Take profit is at 8,569.74 which is a swing-high resistance.
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ASX 200 Futures: Finding a Signal Amid the NoiseWe're sandwiched between an incoming NFP report and the turbulence from Trump's tariffs. That could provide a double dose of 'fickle' price action, which we tend to see leading up to big events such as nonfarm payrolls or Fed meetings. With that in mind, I update my bearish bias on ASX 200 futures, using the intraday timeframe and a glance at Wall Street indices.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
ASX 200: Why I'm not banking on [an immediate] record highThe ASX 200 cash market is tantalisingly close to retesting its record high set in December. Traders are betting on an RBA cut in February (and 100bp of cuts this year) which is helping to support the market. Yet I doubt the ASX will simply break to a new high without a fresh catalyst. Comparing the ASX 200 cash and futures market and their key levels, I explain why.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Is ASX 200 waiting for a catalyst?Looking at the technical picture of the MARKETSCOM:AUS200 Cash index, we can see that the price remains on an uptrend, while balancing above a medium-term tentative upside support line taken from the lowest point of August 2024. Despite seeing a relatively strong correction lower throughout the whole of December, the index remains resilient to downside pressure. That said, in the short-run, at the time of writing, MARKETSCOM:AUS200 is struggling to break above a key resistance area, around the 8370 barrier.
In order to shift our attention to some higher areas, a break above that key resistance area would be needed. That’s when we may see some more bulls entering the field. If such a move occurs, we might start aiming for the current highest zone, near the 8522 hurdle.
For the downside scenario, we will take a more conservative approach and wait for a break below the previously mentioned upside line. Additionally, a drop below the current lowest point of January, at around 8131 area may invite more bears into the market, potentially opening the door for a move towards the 200-day EMA and the psychological 8000 mark. If that hurdle is unable to withstand the pressure from the sellers, further declines might be possible.
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ASX futures tease bearish with a potential swing highSanta's rally put in a poor performance this year. ASX futures sold off into Christmas before the 200-day SMA and 8000 handle came before the market eked out a weak comeback into the new year. Yet price action on the daily chart suggests we could be approaching a swing high.
It appears we're in a third wave higher from 8000, yet momentum lacks the legs of the initial bounce to suggest an ABC correction could be nearing an end. The 50-day SMA has so far capped today's rally and could leave a bearish pinbar should it close the day around current levels. A multi-week bearish divergence has formed on the RSI (14) and the daily RSI (2) is approaching overbought.
The bias is to fade into moves towards the 50-day SMA and target the November low. But if appetite for risk truly sours, we could see prices break beneath the 200-day SMA and 8000 level and head for the lower trendline of the rising channel.
MS
Potential key reversal top detected for GMGLevel of interest: $36.67 area level of interest proved problematic on 22nd July (key support/resistance area to observe). Observe market reaction around this level of interest.
Stop loss for the trade involving ASX:GMG (and indication that this trade is an absolute 'no-go') is any trade above the high of the signal day of 10th December (i.e.: any trade above $39.43).
Why on Earth anyone invests in the Australian Shares? (SPX)The last 16 years. The US S&P 500 index (in red) Vs the Australian All Ordinaries index. The US broad market index up by 607%, the Australian index up by 58%. The US S&P 500 index is a broad measure of the top 500 companies in the US, and the All Ordinaries likewise from the largest 500 companies listed in Australia. The US represents about 25% of Global GDP Vs Australia at 1.6%. The US S&P500 index companies also earn about 40% of their earnings from outside America (due to their Global reach). Their companies also lead in tech, banking, defense etc. Why does anyone invest solely in the Australian share markets? The Australian index is very narrowly weighted to the big 4 banks (mostly leveraged on Australian residential real estate), and the large miners (leveraged on the commodity cycle). Both very narrow, non-diversified risky strategies, and clearly over the long term a crap investment compared to the breath of risk and performance outcomes of the US multinational giants of expansion and leading edge innovation.
ASX dragged lower by the DowThe Dow Jones futures market fell for an 8th consecutive day on Monday, a bearish sequence not seen in over 12 years. And that's not good news for ASX 200 bulls, as the index tends to track the Dow very closely.
The daily chart looks like it wants to head to 8200, and it just 1 - 2 bearish trading days away from it looking at a typical day's range. The 1-hour trend has favoured bearish swing traders, who could seek to fade into moves towards the 20-50 hour EMAs.
Potential key reversal bottom detected for WORLevel of interest: Prior support/resistance levels in the past of $13.32 (17-Oct-2022) and $12.92 (10-Oct-2022) (key support/resistance areas to observe).
Await signals for entry such as DMI/ADX and/or RSI swing to the bullish direction.
Stop loss for the trade involving ASX:WOR (and indication that this trade is an absolute 'no-go') is any trade below the low of the signal day of 4th December (i.e.: any trade below $13.16).