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Asx200

ASX 200 truncated fifth? Why the Australian stock market fails In my July 2019 analysis, I assumed ASX 200 was going through a Wave 3 and will go up to 8300 in a year. However, XJO failed epically, it did not even come close to the 1.618 projection at 8300, when the American stocks were strongly bullish. During the February and March 2020 corona virus panic, XJO dropped much more than Nasdaq Composite and some other American indexes. Comparing to American market, all those failures point to some underlying weakness in the Australian stock market and broad economy. Another alarming fact is that the February 2020 all time high is 7180, right below the 3.618 projection of the 1982 to 1987 Wave 1 at 7200. In Elliott's Wave theory, Wave 5 often has some fibonacci proportionate relation with Wave 1. The Australian market is hinting here, February 2020 is the top of a truncated, 'failed' wave 5, as it failed to go significantly higher than the November 2007 top of Wave 3. If we take inflation into account, 7180 in 2020 might be actually lower than 6850 in November 2007. Fundamentally, Australian stocks perform worse than their American counterparts because we have a crazy property bubble here, making many young and old Australians curb consuming and stock investing to save for mortgage deposits. My impression is that most immigrants or new Australians prefer to invest in real estate, not old fashioned shares. Australian immigration intake has been decreasing since 2017, corresponding neatly with the first wave of housing market crash. Unemployment caused by corona virus in 2020 make the rise in property prices since late 2019 look like a dead cat bounce, a Wave B. Unfortunately 2020 might be the start of a lost decade for Australia, featured with decreasing fertility, decreasing immigration, decreasing property and stock market, rising inflation, and collapsing Australian dollar. Indeed we are similar to the Japan of 1990, just awakening from decades of dreamlike growth, easy money and unrealistic confidence. In the short term, ASX 200 is likely to try to approach 6000, getting close to 10 and 200 week moving average as resistance. This short term recovery will probably not change the bleak big picture though. My bottom line is that Australian market will drop more when the American market drops, and rise less when the American market rises, so overall Australian shares are much more bearish.
ASX:XJO
by MarcusAu
2
XJO ASX200 Update - Bear Flag Pattern We have gone up 20%+ since 23 March, this is likely to be an oversold bounce or "dead cat bounce" in technical terms. Since 90% of Shops are still close, Corona Virus is still in the headlines around the world and death rates are not showing signs of slowing down. Therefore, it is very unlike that the bottom is in and we are exiting this bear market in the short term. By looking at the short term chart, we can see a BEAR FLAG pattern forming for ASX200. I am expecting lower levels and we drop toward the gap. (4700-4800)
ASX:XJOShort
by johninvest17
1
ASX XAO All Ordinaries to start an uptrend in AUGUSTASX:XAO dropped 39% from its high in Feb 2020 and has gained 15% in March 2020. With stimulus package announced earlier, Australian markets have rallied towards the month end. A clear uptrend will not be established until we have a month ( most likely AUGUST ) that closes above XAO 5400 which is the red Resistance line shown on chart. I do not see ASX close under 4400 again. Bar pattern in grey based on previous fractal / trend I can see develop in the next few months of volatility with ASX:XAO target of 6300 in March 2021 Blue vertical line in Oct 2021 is one of the fib time zones I will be watching for a likely pull back.
ASX:XAOLong
by secondavatar
3
ASX, H4 - potential inverted head and shoulders patternOn the H4 chart of the Australian stock exchange index ASX we may observe a potential inverted head and shoulders pattern. It seems that her right arm may have occur on the level at which the left arm appeared. It is therefore possible a strong level of support - 4811 points. If the horizontal neckline is broken (5355 points) then a path may open for further increases in the area of 6037 points. There may be another potential resistance level. ________ Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd. Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. 60% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
OANDA:AU200AUD
by Daniel_Kostecki
ASX 200 1st April BOOOM Look at this monthly wick it’s dying to bounce up 1st of April is the new wick all the stimulus etc,etc, #ASX200 #BTC buckle up this market has a bounce incoming Manipulated global panic cause the largest and most devastating destruction around the world and this market gonna go boom somehow 🧐 I’m somewhat dissapointed and a little saddened by the fact this literally all seems to be China controlling the world on a global economy and potentially doing it for BTC HALVING 🧐 just a theory far fetched but hey this year has been messed up enough, ❤️
ASX:ASXLong
by bennywayhard92
2
Daily Analysis on AU200 ( ASX ) by ThinkingAntsOkUse this as a guide to develop your view of the chart. Main items we can see on the Daily Chart: a) The main structure is an ascending channel b) After the price reached the Weekly resistance zone, we saw a huge sell-off on the index. c) Currently, the price is on a massive support zone d) From there we expect a pullback to the broken ascending channel e) From an Elliott Wave perspective, the movement we are expecting is a B wave (correction)
OANDA:AU200AUD
by ThinkingAntsOk
1
Why the ASX200 is going lower (March 25, 2020)The COVID-19 pandemic has spurred on a catastrophic 39% decline over 5 weeks in the ASX200 . Right now we're seeing the beginning of a bullish retracement as negative sentiments start to ease globally. But with most market crashes historically, nothing ever falls in a straight line. There are always retracements in a down market, otherwise known as dead cat bounces. This chart shows the ASX200 during the Global Financial Crisis ( GFC ) The full declines took an entire year and a half to play out 28 weeks in, the ASX200 had a 50% bullish retracement spanning 8 weeks. Be careful (protect capital) - wait for a solidified foundation before going long - don't try to catch falling knives.
ASX:XJOShort
by TomUnderwood
1
When will the Bounce happen? ASX The market looks like in complete meltdown, but for the short term the market is due for a bounce. 38% drop from peak to trough. Indicators: RSI, BFI, StochRSI overdone Though StochRSI still showing time for more downturn. So looking at a 2 week timeframe for that bounce which should be about 20%. But the weekly moving averages lets us know we are at the beginning of the fall. If we look at 2007-2009 there was an original drop of 26% that took about 5-6 months. This current drop about 1 month so 5-6 x quicker. Than we had another 46% drop that took 9-10 months.
ASX:XJO
by GlobalTrader_
My worst case scenario for ASX200 $XJO Hello investors and traders, Warren Buffett famously said, "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." I have seen this quote everywhere on social media last few days/week. Retailer investors are being so GREEDY right now and buying stocks because it is cheap...This tells me we are nowhere near the bottom. Learning from bitcoin, market bottoms when people are in depression and give up on investing because they are scared or have no money left. As mentioned last week, we need to close above the 200 MA LOW on the monthly chart in order to have a chance of a quick recovery (4885). Currently we are below this line, so let's prepare and assume we have close below this. Here is my WORST CASE scenario for ASX 200. We start the 3-9 TD sequential correction phase and head towards 2500. The catalyst for this to happen is an Australian recession or even a depression. What would you do if this is the case? What are you going to do to protect your portfolio/wealth?
ASX:XJOShort
by johninvest17
1