WESTPAC my god.... short the banks and all that WBCAUDwestpac bank has been completely gutted buy the covid19 mania.... literally feels like 2002 out here ........... gonna catch a long on this soon but no indication of reversal yet
Asx200
Why the ASX200 is going lower (March 25, 2020)The COVID-19 pandemic has spurred on a catastrophic 39% decline over 5 weeks in the ASX200 .
Right now we're seeing the beginning of a bullish retracement as negative sentiments start to ease globally.
But with most market crashes historically, nothing ever falls in a straight line. There are always retracements in a down market, otherwise known as dead cat bounces.
This chart shows the ASX200 during the Global Financial Crisis ( GFC )
The full declines took an entire year and a half to play out
28 weeks in, the ASX200 had a 50% bullish retracement spanning 8 weeks.
Be careful (protect capital) - wait for a solidified foundation before going long - don't try to catch falling knives.
When will the Bounce happen? ASX The market looks like in complete meltdown, but for the short term the market is due for a bounce.
38% drop from peak to trough.
Indicators: RSI, BFI, StochRSI overdone Though StochRSI still showing time for more downturn. So looking at a 2 week timeframe for that bounce which should be about 20%.
But the weekly moving averages lets us know we are at the beginning of the fall.
If we look at 2007-2009 there was an original drop of 26% that took about 5-6 months. This current drop about 1 month so 5-6 x quicker. Than we had another 46% drop that took 9-10 months.
ASX Support and ResistanceWe are in uncharted territory now.
Never before have we broken below the Monthly 200 Moving Average.
Yellow is my current target for some stability. But unlikely to hold.
Orange are the next likely targets if we fail to hold around the 4050+/- range
Red and below, as scary as they are. Would be the greatest investing opportunity of our generation.
Descending wedge with indicator divergenceDescending wedge on H4 with divergence across all indicators. Could be primed for a little bull run.
My worst case scenario for ASX200 $XJO Hello investors and traders,
Warren Buffett famously said,
"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." I have seen this quote everywhere on social media last few days/week.
Retailer investors are being so GREEDY right now and buying stocks because it is cheap...This tells me we are nowhere near the bottom.
Learning from bitcoin, market bottoms when people are in depression and give up on investing because they are scared or have no money left.
As mentioned last week, we need to close above the 200 MA LOW on the monthly chart in order to have a chance of a quick recovery (4885).
Currently we are below this line, so let's prepare and assume we have close below this.
Here is my WORST CASE scenario for ASX 200.
We start the 3-9 TD sequential correction phase and head towards 2500. The catalyst for this to happen is an Australian recession or even a depression.
What would you do if this is the case? What are you going to do to protect your portfolio/wealth?
ASX bull trapLikely close below the 200MA on the weekly chart will lead to further downsides as the alligator indicator opens up bearishly. Also currently sitting under the ichimoku cloud, providing a resistance. We could be on the brink (early stages) of a recession.
ASX 200 in a descending triangle pattern ASX 200 as the possibility of being pushed back after hitting overhead resistance on the descending triangle. If the price pushes below the bottom support then increase position size as a significant move down is likely.
BUY and then BUY again - 161% FIBGood morning traders,
Crude oil is getting ridiculously cheap!
Whilst the global demand for oil is decreasing due to mass quarantine, this will only be short lived (1-2 months).
China is pretty much back online and working again as their outbreak has tapered off.
We are looking to start buying crude at the 161% FIB level roughly $23 per barrel.
Keep your stops below 10.00 and hold for the foreseeable!
Any thoughts or comments let us know!!
The opportunity to buy crude at these levels doesn't come around that often!! DO NOT MISS OUT
ASX200 HUGE MARKET REVERSAL INCOMINGHUGEEEE TRADING OPPORTUNITY
This is going to pop up for the stimulus package in Australia, I don’t particularly care about this but I am looking for an indicator for BTC and if BTC is still following traditional markets there is a huge bounce incoming
Weekly chart showing a very possible upwards direction
I’m guessing whenever Scott Morrison releases his beefed up stimulus this market will go straight back up to where it was
I think this is like the original BTC bubble from 2017 it’s just the start all the markets are going to make for amazing trading
2020
Not advice do not use this in anyway as investment idea
ASXASX looking very dangerous here
AB=CD objective hit
Price has reached the 1.618
Price has moved higher but volume is dropping off
Indicators sowing its overbought
With an impending GFC upon us, it would surprise me if we see a drop to the 618.
S&P and world markets signs of a short term bottomThe world is going crazy, countries in lockdown, flights being stopped, but at least we have people buying toilet paper from retailers to give this quarter a boost in profit numbers hey?
But really this is a short term bottom, Looking at the chart here it is very hard to see further falls right now. The candle has over extended the LinReg and the Stochastic RSI has turned around, while the bottom finder has pointed out a possible bottom. I am looking for a 25% recovery to give us time to exit our stocks and crypto etc. Selling now is not a good time.
Than in May and June is when we will see the real crisis. From it's peak I am looking for at least a 50% - 60% correction
So I am long for about 4-6 weeks here. taking it day by day.
A Look at the Australian EconomyAustralia Consumer Confidence has slid down to a 5-year low, dropping down to 91.9 from the previous month of 95.5. Officially called the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment, it fell 3.8%, and in its March report Westpac cited the coronavirus and the effect that it has had on the financial markets as the cause of this 5-year low. It is also the second lowest level that the Index has been, since the recession of 2008 when it managed to hit 79 points. The report also stated that while consumers were rightfully worried about short term economic impacts, they were not as concerned about the longer-term economic prospects, evidence of the notion that the coronavirus epidemic would be “large but temporary”.
This low confidence has also been reflected in the Australian dollar and stocks, as the AUD dropped 1.03% from the previous trading day, down to a low of 0.6492 against the greenback. It’s no surprise that investors are continuing to avoid high risk currencies such as the AUD in this volatile market, and instead place their funds into safe havens instead.
The ASX, or Australian Securities Exchange, has also been on a nosedive since the 20th of February, dropping 11.5%, from above 7,000 points to 5,700, reversing all gains made in the past 2 years.
This low confidence has also been reflected amongst the Australian public in such events as the now infamous toilet paper brawls, viral videos of women fighting over toilet paper in Australian supermarkets. The mass stockpiling of toilet paper has in fact become so bad that Woolworths, Australia’s largest supermarket chain, announced that they would be rationing toilet paper, and limiting the amount that people could buy down to 2. Another supermarket chain, Coles, has limited toilet paper purchase down to one per person.
This certainly seems to be an overreaction given that Australia’s coronavirus crisis has been relatively contained so far compared to other countries, with only 137. But the country appears to be preparing for the worst, as the first two cases of community transmission have now been confirmed within the country, and doctors are now bracing themselves for a proper outbreak.
Both cases of transmission were in the state of New South Wales. The first case was from a woman who had contracted it from her brother who had come from Iran. However the second case was the concerning one, as it came from a 53 year old health worker who had not been in contact with anyone infected or travelled to any countries with heavy infections.
Australia has also now placed a ban on travellers from Italy, in addition to its existing bans for Iran, South Korea, and China. For Australian citizens or permanent residents arriving from those countries, they will have to place themselves in self-isolation for 14 days. This move comes as the situation in Italy has become drastically more dire, as the entire country is now in quarantine.
It is now undoubtable that the coronavirus will cause an economic recession. And Australia’s economy will suffer a heavy blow, due to its trade connections with China. Even after a 25 basis point rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia to a record low of 0.5% and acknowledgement that it would ease monetary policy further if needed, Australia looks to be in for a rough time ahead.
For daily market updates, follow us on Instagram at blackbull_markets and Twitter at @blackbullforex.
ASX200 $XJO Are we heading for a bear market? Good Evening, investors and traders, the Asx200 $XJO went lower again due to market uncertainty with the coronavirus.
Last week, I said if we breach the 50 moving average, the first level of support is around 6300-6400.
The market went straight down to 6259.9 on Monday and traded sideways between 6259-6500 for a few days and eventually making a new low of 6216 at Friday's close.
Next week, I am watching 5800-6100 as a very important area of support. (Currently, I do forecast a dead cat bounce from there)
Furthermore, the ASX200 $XJO must close above or near the 200 MA (red line). If not, we are more likely heading for a bear market.
One important thing to keep in mind is that the VIX is at a bearish high reading.
This tells the mid-large fund organizations such as investment banks and hedge funds to reduce risk and exposure in their long/short portfolios.
The good news is that we do have a TD 9 coming for the Vix and this signal a likely top for the short term.
Therefore, like the hedge funds and investment banks,
I am still only risking a small amount of money in the market. I will go big again WHEN the Vix is below 15 and price level can close above all moving averages. At the moment this price area is around 6666-6800.
Glossary:
VIX
The S&P/ASX 200 VIX Index ( XVI ) calculates the amount of volatility expected in the market over the next 30 days.
• High readings indicate uncertainty ( bearish ) 20-30
• Normal readings suggest a slight bullish bias 15-20
• Low readings indicate low volatility ( bullish ) and strong investor confidence. <14.99
Bear market
A bear market is a condition in which securities prices fall 20% or more from recent highs amid widespread pessimism and negative investor sentiment.
ASX IdeaPotential short opportunity, can be seen to be hanging under the resistance line, with an immediate death cross on the daily chart in play, these are usually more effective on the weekly chart but we will see how it plays out. Aussies spending too much money on toilet paper..
Technical Analysis Education - Simple TA on Weekly Chart - XJOTechnical Analysis Education:
ASX200 (ASX - XJO) Weekly Chart
For those of you out there who are new to trading, I like to keep my TA simple and clean. I also like to look at the bigger picture to understand what's happening right now. There can be a lot of confusion when an event such as a market crash happens. We can be reactive and emotional, which is normal, but not helpful.
See below the #XJO which tracks the ASX200. On the weekly charts its a clean upward channel, going through from the end of the GFC to now. Strong bullish trend with healthy pullbacks (corrections) You will note that the points value moves within this channel, bouncing as it goes.
Some points to note on the chart:
1. We are still in a #bullish market trend on the weekly timeframe (exclude the smaller time frames)
2. We haven't broken any major support levels.
3. We can expect to keep falling at least another 6% to said support.
4. We are still within the key #fibonacci levels of 38.2, 50 and 61.8. These are healthy retracement levels.
When to be concerned?
If we broke through our trend lines and fell below 5,800 points, we could potentially fall to 5,000 points or lower.
Make sure to look at the big picture!
Hope this helps
The XJO Corrections are Quicker, as Interest Rates head to ZeroAs interest rates head to zero the bounce backs from corrections are getting quicker.
XJO is in a 10 year uptrend channel since the GFC and the first correction in 10/11 from top of channel to bottom was approx 426 days at 23%, the second correction in 15/16 from top to bottom was approx 285 days at 21%, the next major correction in late 18 ( wasnt from top to bottom of channel) lasted approx 104 days at 15%. Current donwtrend has started from top of channel. As interest rates get lower from 5% to 0.5% the corrections seem to be less time.
Higher Probability we bounce off the 61.8 fib level or bottom of channel.
High Probability Of Dead cat bounce at 6300 ?6000 is the next level of support, if not we head straight into a bear market to 5400, which i think is a lower probability!
XJO monthly and weekly levels.Keeping it simple.
Monthly resistance @6618--> next test: More outbreaks, Geopolitical tensions, Lower forecasts, supply chain issues, Profit taking, Uncertainty
Strong support @6380 --> Thanks to : helicopter money(eg- Hong Kong), Interest rate cuts, ' Buy the dippers' .
Not a trader(yet). Purely sticking to fundamentals of the companies I own/want to own.
ASX 200 Index is expected to cut deep into negative territoryThe Index is expected to fall to around 6482.50 and 6409.00 in today's opening trades following the continues sell-off in the U.S. and European markets.
The Index slipped below 6711.00 a critical price point highlighted in my previous update and closed yesterday's session at 6651.40.
The Index has slipped into the next stage of this sell-off at 6711.00 and 6409.00 price range. Critical price level to watch in today's session is at around 6482.50 and 6409.00
XJO ASX200, close above 20 MA (weekly) to be bullish againThe retracement that I was waiting for came this week and we went down fast and hard.
This has made me more bearish than before in the short term.
We could see an "exit pump" in the next few trading sessions by big investors/institutions and have the price level jump back toward the 20 moving average before going down further like the past. Therefore, for me to turn bullish on the Australia market again, I need to see the price level close above the 20 moving average on the weekly . "Green line" (around 6900-7000).
If we break the 50 MA yellow line:
-I will close all my open positions
-Be out of the market
-so I can buy great companies at a discount once this is over.
-I will be watching that box around 6300-6400 as the first level of support.
#cashisking. #warrenbuffet #valueinvesting
Short term ABC Correction For XJO ASX 200I am expecting an ABC correction in XJO in the short term.
I think we are about to see the start of a C wave this week unless we can break that trend line.
MACD indicates a " sell " signal.
At this stage, I am still bullish in mid to long term as long as we can STAY above or inside the triangle + above the 50 MA.
SOL - Potential Trade - Ascending TriangleOne to watch. Could be a decent trade here if the triangle breaks. May break out in anticipation of good earnings and or announcements.
