ASX - Bearish Divergence - SELLGood morning traders,
The ASX has reached a key level failing to break above the inclining channel.
There is currently a bearish divergence on the RSI followed by an inclining wedge formation.
With global indices looking very fragile at the moment due to the Coronavirus, Impeachment and earnings season in the US, the ASX could follow suit.
Any comments are welcome!
Asx200
Time to reduce risk Asx200 $XJO My forecast for the Hang Seng and Dow Jones are that a reversal back to the moving averages.
Now we are likely to see the same for XJO towards mid February.
The worst case scenario is we reversal back to the long term trendline support.
At this stage, it is unlikely that would happen.
Therefore, reversal back to 6800-7000 is more likely to me.
I have reduced my portfolio from 11 positions to 4 heading to next week.
Pro Medicus - Falling Wedge - new uptrend resuming?Looks like plenty of upside for PME now the falling wedge has broken out to the upside. Furthermore a fairly major resistance/support level has also broken through suggesting a bullish trend may resume. I'm thinking this could be a good spot to get in.
Australia Stocks and S&P/ASX 200 Drops At The End Of TradingOn Wednesday, Australia stocks were softer after the stock trading. It was due to the deficits in the IT, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials sectors that led the shares weaker.
At the end of trading in Sydney, the S&P/ASX 200 plunged 0.13%.
The best performers of the trading session on the S&P/ASX 200 were Independence Group NL , which soared 6.00% or 0.390 points to trade at 6.890 at the close.
Meanwhile, Newcrest Mining Ltd also increased by 4.03% or 1.240 points to end at 32.000 as well as Regis Resources Ltd that rose 3.70% or 0.160 points to 4.480 in late trading.
On the flip side, the worst performers of the session were Polynovo Ltd declined 8.13% or 0.165 points to trade at 1.865 at the end of the stock trading.
Pendal Group Ltd also dropped 5.32% or 0.480 points to end at 8.540 along with Pilbara Minerals Ltd that decreased 4.76% or 0.015 points to 0.300.
Meanwhile, falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones on the Sydney Stock Exchange by 761 to 402, and 333 ended untouched.
Moreover, shares in Independence Group NL grew to 5-year highs; up 6.00% or 0.390 to 6.890.
The S&P/ASX 200 VIX , which is measuring the implied volatility of S&P/ASX 200 options, strengthened 3.14% to 13.018.
ASX: Galaxy ResourcesFactors
1. Price has broken out of the recent ST downtrend (22/05/19 - 02/01/20)
2. There is a bullish candlestick printed with decent volume where price broke the recent downtrend (02/01/20)
3. Price made a higher low of 84c (06/12/19)
4. There is a gap at $1.29 which I would be looking to target.
Possible Reasons For Failure
1. Momentum may fade and continue downwards.
2. 13/48 EMA doesn't crossover, however it is slowly converging
ELD with highly compressed GMMA bandsELD has significant GMMA band compression on both the long and short sets of bands.
Note that the green shorter bands have been able to pierce the red bands are now retending upwards.
The last two similar situations for ELD circled in white, with compression of long EMAs of the GMMA following green bands piercing, preceeded significant uptrends.
To add a little more fuel to the ready-to-burst thesis, price is about to cross the 100period SMA (not shown, free account lol).
On the RSIMA the breach of the average above 50 could round into a bottom above the neutral 50 line.
Finally in volume terms the recent downtrend in Nov - Dec produced no fall in the OBV creating a divergence with price.
Stop loss placed near the established support level
Macquarie momentum studyJust a post for posterity to try out the awesome RSI Heatmap (and my RSI with RSIMA which is a more conventional much weaker visualisation of it.
RSI breaking RSIMA on the Daily chart, shown on the Heatmap as a flash of red on the shortest time frame RSI. RSI breaking its average is bearish, as would dragging that average down to breach the neutral 50 level.
In chart pattern terms we have an ascending triangle with price set to revisit support
If I were building signals out of the RSI Heatmap it would involve a shift from red to green at the lowest time frame radiating up in time scale...
BXB on the edgeBXB is hanging in there by a thread.
Note that the lower high and lower low, as well as the completion of a Demark Sequential sell countdown prior to reaching the support level after breaching the previous buy support level.
Breaching through the buy set up support would be a substantial lower low and could see a run much further down.
PME bull trend with DeMark Sequential levels on displayPME's uptrend over the 9 months of the start of the year is illustrated by the repeated completion of 9 count Demark Sequential sell setups, without a single completion of a 9 count buy set up over that period.
PME has recently completed its first 9 count buy set up, resulting in a run up of over 10% in the space of 3 days, which was well contained by the existing trend resistance line with strong sell pressure giving a long wick on today's candle.
Note that the resistance established by each of the sell set ups during an extended uptrend tended to be broken early in the 9 count.
Note repeated attempts of RSI to break its very low moving average being contained by strong sell pressure.
Long LNK? Strong open and strong close last Friday. So is it time to go long for Link Admin this week?
It is above the 20 and 50 moving averages.
MACD and RSI are bullish,
we are likely to see a breakout toward the 200 MA at 6.70-6.75.
Worth adding this to your watchlist.
ASX:APT STRONG Long Hello my dear
You can find all details on the chart above.
ASX:APT
Entry: 28 - 28.5
Targets:
First : 36.4
Second: 46.4
Stop: 25
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NAN Shorting Opportunity Short position opportunity for Nanosonic.
Trend changed to bearish after it failed to make a HL on the daily time frame. Bearish on the weekly with a big red candle at the top of the trend taking away all of the gains from the previous week, the week just gone showing another big red candle, suggesting the bears are completely in control. Also showing long wicks to the upside in the last three months of candles on the monthly, suggesting that the bulls are unable to hold this upward momentum that they've had since December 2018.
Also, this massive gap at $5.89 to $5.23 has been around since August, suggesting it may be time for it to be filled.
Short Price: $6.66
Stop Loss: $6.94 or 5.11%, pushing the risk limit I usually would want, although its a possible 21.62% gain down to the bottom of that gap, so it needs some room to let the trade play out.
Buy Price: $5.22 which pretty much sits at 78.60% fib level, which means it could take days to weeks.
Is the Market Finally Going to Crack?The RSI gave us a Divergence "a warning signal" on the monthly chart.
Today sell-off of 2.19% was going to happen anyway. Maybe more to come if the US Market continues to sell-off.
I am still bullish long term and have added support lines on where I expect the price to bounce back.
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Related ideas
Nov 30
TD Sequential is showing a Green 9. This could be a temporary top for the US Market.
We could see a small pullback towards the moving averages.
Watching #TLS #ASXCurrently not in Telstra, but they do again have the edge on the 5G game in Australia. But right now in the short term anyway we are overbought.
Lets take a look.
The Price is currently above both the Bollinger band and Linear Regression, which to my eyes if I was holding I would be watching the RSI MFI & Stochastic RSI very closely. I am expecting them to turn down very soon and that would be a sell.
What TLS has going for it is that, because the price has closed above the Linear Regression while it is in a downward direction tells me that the long term direction has changed and we will see higher prices and if 3.64-3.80 can hold it would be great for the bulls.
So expect a drop to those above levels, but higher prices over the years.... if we don't have a whole market turn
Inghams Group (ING) Potential for 13% gap upING getting squeezed tight into this corner, RSI holding above 50 showing change to bullish bias. Possible 13% profit if it breaks and gaps up.
Entry: $3.30 - Just above short term resistance/ breakout line
Target: $3.75 - 13.64%, this area is the top of the gap
Stop Loss: $3.07 - 6% stop loss as that would confirm that it was wrong and trend change
Relatively new to this so I welcome all feedback/criticism.