XJO ASX200 update -Pay attention to the 200 MA low monthlyGood morning,
I want to show you an important trading indicator today and it is the 200 moving average low on the monthly. (currently at 4885)
This indicator acted as major support during the GFC (Nov 2008, Mar 2009) and we tested this level last Friday and bounced strongly.....
I will wait and watch the monthly close to see if this is an excellent buying opportunity from a risk/reward strategy.
Asxshort
ASX200 $XJO Are we heading for a bear market? Good Evening, investors and traders, the Asx200 $XJO went lower again due to market uncertainty with the coronavirus.
Last week, I said if we breach the 50 moving average, the first level of support is around 6300-6400.
The market went straight down to 6259.9 on Monday and traded sideways between 6259-6500 for a few days and eventually making a new low of 6216 at Friday's close.
Next week, I am watching 5800-6100 as a very important area of support. (Currently, I do forecast a dead cat bounce from there)
Furthermore, the ASX200 $XJO must close above or near the 200 MA (red line). If not, we are more likely heading for a bear market.
One important thing to keep in mind is that the VIX is at a bearish high reading.
This tells the mid-large fund organizations such as investment banks and hedge funds to reduce risk and exposure in their long/short portfolios.
The good news is that we do have a TD 9 coming for the Vix and this signal a likely top for the short term.
Therefore, like the hedge funds and investment banks,
I am still only risking a small amount of money in the market. I will go big again WHEN the Vix is below 15 and price level can close above all moving averages. At the moment this price area is around 6666-6800.
Glossary:
VIX
The S&P/ASX 200 VIX Index ( XVI ) calculates the amount of volatility expected in the market over the next 30 days.
• High readings indicate uncertainty ( bearish ) 20-30
• Normal readings suggest a slight bullish bias 15-20
• Low readings indicate low volatility ( bullish ) and strong investor confidence. <14.99
Bear market
A bear market is a condition in which securities prices fall 20% or more from recent highs amid widespread pessimism and negative investor sentiment.
XJO ASX200, close above 20 MA (weekly) to be bullish againThe retracement that I was waiting for came this week and we went down fast and hard.
This has made me more bearish than before in the short term.
We could see an "exit pump" in the next few trading sessions by big investors/institutions and have the price level jump back toward the 20 moving average before going down further like the past. Therefore, for me to turn bullish on the Australia market again, I need to see the price level close above the 20 moving average on the weekly . "Green line" (around 6900-7000).
If we break the 50 MA yellow line:
-I will close all my open positions
-Be out of the market
-so I can buy great companies at a discount once this is over.
-I will be watching that box around 6300-6400 as the first level of support.
#cashisking. #warrenbuffet #valueinvesting
Time to reduce risk Asx200 $XJO My forecast for the Hang Seng and Dow Jones are that a reversal back to the moving averages.
Now we are likely to see the same for XJO towards mid February.
The worst case scenario is we reversal back to the long term trendline support.
At this stage, it is unlikely that would happen.
Therefore, reversal back to 6800-7000 is more likely to me.
I have reduced my portfolio from 11 positions to 4 heading to next week.
ASX:APT STRONG Long Hello my dear
You can find all details on the chart above.
ASX:APT
Entry: 28 - 28.5
Targets:
First : 36.4
Second: 46.4
Stop: 25
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The Trend Is Your Friend, more selling to come for BUBS AUST?Trade the trend, "the trend is your friend".
All three indicators MACD, RSI and CMF are pointing downwards which tells me this stock can break the support line.
Thus, going down fast!
We could go as low as 85 cents at this stage.
A good buying opportunity coming soon.
I will keep it on my watchlist.
Australian SP200 looking for a drop. ie: short AustraliaPitchforks are handy for predicting future trend directions. The longer term has been directed by that big upward facing pitchfork over the last few years, but I have a feeling once this upper resistance level is hitexpect to see some serious headwinds. Aussie bond yields are dropping like rocks at the moment and the currency is failing against all peers. Plus every Hedgefund manager and his dog are lining up to short the Aussie housing market which is at levels that no other part of the world is experienceing. In terms of commodities, of which Australia’s economy is made up of the exports thereof, all are dropping except for the one that is most crucial; iron ore. However, I cant see how the price of this can remain high for too much longer. If a drop happens there expect a rough landing for Australia; if im not mistaken about 40% of Australia’s economy is based on iron ore exports to china, and a further 30% of the economy after that is the housing market.
So looking back at the technicals, if this peak is not to turn into support, I’m tipping a drop and then a fall in line with that smaller pitchfork. Trade accordingly.
BHP Resistance and Support zonesAs you can see the price is getting very close to the fibonacci zones drawn on the chart. We can expect to see a pullback to the lower box if we do not break above the upper resistance box. That being said If my short does not go to plan and we break above we are targetting higher highs. Check out my youtube channel at aweeboneshTV for more ideas :D
ASX - Limitedupside with Head and ShouldersOANDA:AU200AUD
ASX200 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 6693 (stop at 6713)
The dip was bought and the rally sold resulting in the market posting little net change. An overnight positive theme in Equities has led to a higher open this morning. A bearish Head and Shoulders is forming. Trend line resistance is located at 6708. The previous swing high is located at 6705. Bespoke resistance is located at 6993. The formation has a measured move target of 6460.
Our profit targets will be 6490 and 6460
Resistance: 6673 / 6693 / 6760
Support: 6611 / 6490 / 6460
ASX approaching support, potential bounce!ASX is approaching our first support at 6238.2 (horizontal swing low support, 50% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension) where a strong bounce might occur above this level pushing price up to our major resistance at 6306.1 (horizontal swing high resistance).
Stochastic is also approaching support where we might see a corresponding bounce in price.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
ASX approaching support, potential bounce!ASX is approaching our first support at 6238.2 (horizontal swing low support, 50% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension) where a strong bounce might occur above this level pushing price up to our major resistance at 6306.1 (horizontal swing high resistance).
Stochastic is also approaching support where we might see a corresponding bounce in price.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
ASX approaching resistance, potential drop! ASX is approaching our first resistance at 6230.9 (50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance where a strong drop might occur below this level pushing price down to our major support at 6151.0 (100%, 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, Horizontal pullback support)
Stochastic is also approaching resistance where we might see a corresponding drop in price.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
ASX approaching resistance, potential drop!ASX is approaching our first resistance at 6226.6 (horizontal swing high resistance, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement , 61.8% Fibonacci extension ) where a strong drop might occur below this level pushing price down to our major support at 6146.0 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement , 61.8% Fibonacci extension , horizontal overlap support).
Stochastic (89,5,3) is also approaching resistance where we might see a corresponding drop in price.
ASX approaching resistance, potential drop! ASX is approaching our first resistance at 6226.6 (horizontal swing high resistance, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension) where a strong drop might occur below this level pushing price down to our major support at 6146.0 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap support).
Stochastic (89,5,3) is also approaching resistance where we might see a corresponding drop in price.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
ASX approaching support, potential bounce! EURCAD is approaching our first support at 6102.4 (horizontal overlap support, 23.6% fibonacci retracement) where a strong bounce to our major resistance at 6226.6 (horizontal swing high resistance, 61.8% fibonacci retracement) might occur.
Stochastic is also approaching support where we might see a corresponding bounce in price.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
ASX set for Trend Reversal. Bearish Divergence WeeklyHi all,
as you can see on the weekly time frame (also monthly) we are witnessing positive price action for the ASX. Although positive price action is generally celebrated, it needs to be backed up with positive movements in relative strength, which in this case is not happening.
As you will see on the chart published, despite the positive price action we experienced a lower high on the RSI, which during an uptrend can often be an early indicator for a trend change. This is commonly known as an RSI Bearish Divergence.
Due to this, I am opening a long term short position in which I expect significant downside movement, and since being so close to the recent weekly high, I only have to risk a minimal % of my position.
Anyone who follows me will know that these are my ideal trading set ups and I will more often then not open positions when these set ups occur.
ASX 200 - In trouble After falls in the index in the last quarter of 2018, we have see a rally back into the sell zone(87.5% fib).
My target would be around the 5000 handle, which is nearthe 75% fib level on the monthly chart . This area is where the bulls should turn up,
as the index is in a very strong bullish trend on the monthly chart.