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ETHUSD At Top Of its Tree in Near TermETHUSD At the top of its tree in near term Although ETH has struggled for a large part of the last 30 days, it has now doubled from a low at 313 to today's high at 626. Not bad for a straggler. But it's probably at its upside limits in the near term here and needs to consolidate some more below the upper parallel before it can go again. May well hammer out a small flag for the next few hours, especially if 617 keeps stopping the next advance. To clear the way for the next advance from hereETH would have to find enough power to beat the upper parallel and then to turn it into support on the next retest from above once broken through. Can either close out longs here and lock in profits and be ready to buy on a successful near term break above the upper parallel or potentially to buy again from lower down, from 577-551 range.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by sumastardon
BCHUSD: Wait for this to come back to youBCHUSD Wait for this to come to you It's been a struggle today just keep around break-even here. At least the 1570 high and danger point was identified but we should have shorted there with stops above - kind of obvious now of course. The technical picture here has deteriorated today. It's broken below the parallel and this line is now acting as resistance to rally attempts. It's now likely to move sideways in the range bound at the top by 1539 line and at the bottom by 1476 spike low and 1456 blue line. It's full of whipsaw, traps, delays and broken hearts. It will encounter problems at 1539 and if it can manage to beat here at 1570 again.It's strictly for day traders playing inside the lines with two overhead dynamics bearing down from above. It has to clear all this now before it looks safe for swing traders to go long again - that space between 1572 and 1735 is the space to trade, if and when we see 1572 broken. Otherwise it's a buy on retests of 1477-1456 range with stops under 1450. Any fall below 1450 would be a very bearish outcome for BCH, triggering a short back to 1255 at least and more likely to 1182 before rallying again strongly. Pin bars are often created by wise old traders on fishing expeditions, laying buy orders at extremes days and even weeks in advance. You never know if they are going to get hit, just check the trap once day and maybe one day the big sell off (or rally) arrives and you get filled. This pattern is not positive whilst under 1570. It's carrying a lot of dreams trapped in at higher prices now. We're lucky not to be amongst them having banked profits at the weekend when they were still there to be taken. Hope above 1570, despair below. Put two orders in to buy at 1575 and another at 1185, both with stops 10 points below. One will get struck. Eventually. In nearer term it looks OK to buy dips to 1476 but 1514 is already beginning to become resistance by the look of it so the range to trade is getting smaller, but with a downward bias still. More hearts must be broken before a good rally can begin again here. Keep powder dry. Set traps. Wait. Let this come to you. And at one extreme or the other, it will do eventually.
B
by sumastardon
3
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Overall Still Still Positive at higher levelsOverall dull right now but with a positive undertone, still, at these levels. We look to buy from lower, closer to 7531 if touched or, if very lucky, on any sharp fast test of the lower parallel which would also be viewed as an excellent buying opportunity, should we be lucky enough to see it later in China/London on Monday. Unlikely, but it's Bitcoin. If unsuccesful from lower levels the next buy point will come on a break above that upper parallel with stops under 7700.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Pivot point for today looks to be 6450Bitcoin: BTCUSD Update/levels for longs This trade is in balance, but OK above 6450 The trend is overall positive right now barring super near term test of lower parallel and successful, so far, retest of the key level at 6450 - which looks to be the pivot for day on downside) So If broken at any point and our stop 50 points lower is struck we should look to reverse short again on the next rally attempt towards 6440 once it's broken - it must then fail there to trigger the short with stop 50 points above. But until the stop is hit, the trade is good and we stay long to target at 6940 and then we look to close out and get short again with stop 50/60 points above. We then need price to fall below the lower parallel of this impulse wave with some red candles appearing, bigger the better...so if don't see this, just some lazy backing and filling but held up by the lower parallel it means Bitcoin is stronger than anticipated and needs a plan B, again...the width of the parallels is 250 points, great for day-traders and maybe even for swing traders who are willing to sit with it for a while as one of 3 things occur, most likely: 1. It does what it's meant to, reaches target, get short again, red candles, quite big, a failed bounce and then break of the lower parallel about 250 lower at 6700 by this point in time and all's well with the short back to 6510 target and then reverse again, going long with stop under 6420. Sweet. 2. It falls below 6450 and then our stop below here and we're out with 50 point loss plus spreads and reversing completely. 3. It hits our desired target but It doesn't want to break the the lower parallel around 6700 when tested, it holds. In which case close out shorts and wait to see if the bounce is strong with nice green candles again or feeble and likely to fail ...if so short gain when failure is evident, on first retest of the failed lower parallel from underneath (with stop 50 points above), looking for 6510 target, as above from there. On upside, further out in time, and so we are prepared with straight-forward plans (for experienced traders, anyway) for any eventuality: Any break above 6960 which is then sustained on the next pull back would be very surprising (so could happen, it's BItcoin don't forget) and mean we have to long again with stops 50 points under 6940 level. So the pivot point on upsdie is 6960 by look of thins
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Extra care at 6300 level over the next few hoursBitcoin: BTCUSD Update Quiet: No Buyers/No sellers, yet So we got the rally from 6300 - the 6312 level has been constantly mentioned recently as a minimum downside target. And it so happens that 6301 is 20% exactly from the high, a text-book retracement. So am thinking that we need to pay it a little more respect next time we visit it, when this little counter rally ends and try to lay out possible scenarios to watch out for that might tell us when the down-wave is finished: it's struggling to move above 6560 as this is written...so not much more upside now, limited at tops by the middle parallel - before it comes off again. Then comes the next big test for Bitcoin: 6300 must hold, creating a loss of downward momentum and a double bottom, with another pin bar on the 1 hour chart, ideally. And then start studding 6300 with pinbar bottoms over the next 3 or 4 hours if things stay pretty dead, like now. Then it needs to make an intermediate double bottom at 6300 in a fews hours' time, when it gets knocked back from the parallel on the first test, most likely. And then, the second, confirming signal will be issued when Bitcoin manages to break back above the upper parallel and to hold up there on the first retest. That would be the confirming sign that selling pressure is finally over - don't think it is but the chart decides this, not me, more's the pity. Long story short: 6300 deserves a little more respect than it's been given in last post. We look for signs of a potential loss of downward momentum there ... but it's still touch and go...the only other way out of this jam is for Bitcoin to hold up off the medium term dynamic on the next decline and start tracking sideways towards the parallel to its right (on chart)...it's possble - still think that any encounters with the centre parallel will be met with rejection - so swing traders are advised to stay short with stops above 6630 - and if we do see a low made at 6300 and then see the upper parallel broken to upside it's time to get long on next pullback towards the same parallel. Don't think this looks over yet, though - and won't unless we price action similar to that just described. Otherwise, stay short for test of the lower parallel once 6300 gives way.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by sumastardon
1
Brent Crude: UKOIL Time to close out longs and consider shortsBRENT CRUDE: UKOIL Have closed out the long position finally as Brent touched the upper parallel. It's the fourth strike and should come back from here. Closed at 64.33 for 1833 pips profit on a trade that carried 30 pips of risk from the outset, taking under 6 weeks to achieve. Best win of year (apart from Bitcoin, obviously) Wondering about shorting here, think it's the right thing to do with stop above 64.70 in case Opec deliver a surprise for once. It certainly was last time we tried it. If they do, Brent could rally just above the high today, take out stops nearby and then have a problem again...need to be careful, therefore. But usually it pays to sell before the news...
FX:UKOILShort
by sumastardon
7.28.17 | BANK | Falling Wedge back to ResistanceBANK index: There is an enormous Adam and Eve double top forming inside the sideways channel. This may suggest that price is going to fall back to support. However there has been a lot of bearish divergence over the past two weeks and a corrective move bullish may push price into a breakout out of the sideways channel diverging from the bearish double top. As it stands right now price is in a very tight falling wedge at a major support zone which also is at the neckline for the double top. At the very least I expect price to breakout of the falling wedge to form the pull-back for the double top and anything more from this will be a corrective rally back to resistance and possibly through it. One thing to watch out for is capital moving out of the financial sector as APPL reports their earnings next week. There is a little bearish press in the market for Bank stocks right now but this may only reinforce the resistance of the channel it may not cause price to collapse completely. Again my expectations are a bullish pull-back to a rally back to resistance starting on Monday. Any bearish divergent price action and I will revisit the Adam and Eve Double top.
BLong
by TrilogyAnalysis
2
7.30.17 | AAL | Falling Wedge Break OutAAL looks like it has slightly diverged from its bullish breakout of a falling wedge. None the less Friday did close with a large bullish candle after a huge gap down divergent to the falling wedge pattern. Price has been trading with the support of accelerating fan lines and may have an overall target back to the lower support line. However oil this week looks like it is going to retrace out of a Rising Wedge which is going to be bullish for the Airlines. Also signaling a bullish retracement is the Stochastic Oscillator which has crossed over and trending out of Oversold as well as the Sentiment Zone Oscillator which has also bounced from Oversold and trending to break resistance of the 0 line. Confirmation of a breakout will be a bullish close on Monday, and increasing volume which is already on the rise as seen with the dashed trendline. The first target is drawn on the 31.8% line at about $31.50 | Place your stop just outside daily volatility or use the 8 EMA and place it just outside of that.
NASDAQ:AALLong
by TrilogyAnalysis
7.30.17 | BAC | Falling Wedge Breakout BAC is running into a major support line as well as nearing the support of the Upward Channel Price has been trading in for the past few months. The Falling Wedge is tightened up and will not fit another day of volatility in it. Stochastic's is in a long term up trend, the Stochastic's RSI is trending out of oversold and the Sentiment Zone Oscillator is going to makes it's bounce off oversold. I am speculating a minor trend bullish breakout at the beginning of the week and a possible rally to the resistance zone at the top of the range for a corrective move based on the bullish divergence the Bank Stocks have had for the past two weeks. There is some bearish press in the News right now but with Warren Buffet recently becoming the largest shareholder of BAC I do not see a bearish outcome for this particular Stock.
NYSE:BACLong
by TrilogyAnalysis
8.2.17 | BAC | Target 1 at around $24.90BAC | Going into the market for 8.2.17 price has already traded to Gap up above a major resistance line and currently is at $24.49 at the close on 8.1.17, indicating a rally. Price has broken the confluence between the Fibonacci Retracement and Fibonacci Extension tool, indicating a further rally. It has also broken the 61.8% line on the Fibonacci Retracement which is indicating that price is going to continue to trade higher. I have a Target set at about $24.90 at the top of the Fibonacci Retracement (100% Line) use daily volatility to set your stop or if price starts to trade too far below the trendline, which has been drawn directing the bullish move.
NYSE:BACLong
by TrilogyAnalysis
2
8.6.17 | INTC | Short Trade breaking out of a Rising WedgeINTC | Price has formed a rising wedge and has already began breaking out. Sellers have had control of the market for the past two trading sessions closing each day bearish, which is the indication the bearish breakout of the rising wedge has started. A large inverted Head+Shoulders pattern (grey) is forming as an underlying pattern to the breakout on the falling wedge. The first target of the selloff is the .382% line and the second target is the .5% line. It is doubtful that price will close below the .5% line, however if it does there is a major support line that price will pivot on and reverse to complete the form of the right shoulder on the inverted Head+Shoulders pattern. It is highly recommended to tighten your stop at the second target. The MACD has started to indicate a pull back to its signal line, Stochastics RSI is starting to tick out of Overbought, and the Awesome Accelerator has already started selling back to the zero line. Enter on mondays open, and if you're using stop's set it using daily volatility and the 8EMA.
NASDAQ:INTCShort
by TrilogyAnalysis
USDJPY 4H Bat at marketHey guys, Currently waiting to get filled on a bearish USDJPY Bar pattern on the 4 hour chart. This is a counter trend pattern so please be sure to follow your specific rules. The C to D leg did spike up towards the X completion before retracting, but didn't break below the C leg so it is still valid for me. 113% inversion stop loss and looking for 2 targets. Hey guys, Currently waiting to get filled on a bearish USDJPY Bar pattern on the 4 hour chart. This is a counter trend pattern so please be sure to follow your specific rules. The C to D leg did spike up towards the X completion before retracting, but didn't break below the C leg so it is still valid for me. 113% inversion stop loss and looking for 2 targets. Fibsii Team Fibsii Team
Short
by FIBSII