Spacial Geons: Repeated Fractal Waves
The bull movement was considered reversed but the geons suggest otherwise.
ATR
Circular Decomposition of Harmonic Pattern & 3:1 Long of CD LegThe long position in XRP is merely incidental. The emphasis is on using clean line work to discover areas where price is more likely to reverse.
In this example, which includes a bearish harmonic pattern , decreasing volatility is visible to the naked eye, even without the compression of the MA ribbon or the decreasing ATR.
Some unusual arrangement of pitchforks suggests that a lower time frame trend is breaking out and may retest diagonal support. If this occurs, a long entry presents itself, which would complete the CD Leg of the pattern and set up a Short at the D point.
Trading the CD Leg is NOT recommended because it often fails the test that comes at this level; the pattern is NOT considered confirmed until reaching point D. The incidental long shown here AWAITS the resolution of the test, as suggested by the S-Curve.
Fibonacci ratios are used not only to establish a potential action space for longer range forecasts but also to measure a profit target at point D, on the 1h chart. Although less obvious, but they are used also to estimate Trend Exhaustion (diagonals) and, hence, time.
In addition to more common elements of a Volume Spread Analysis, a series of overlapping VWAPs interacts with the action space implied by the Fibonacci ratios to reveal what might be described as the "grain" in the price history. Of especial importance is how certain VWAPs anchored to real-world events (as opposed to swing highs and lows, or opening bells) predict otherwise invisible volatility when either price or other VWAPs cross them.
BTC TradePlan (14/10/2022)TRADE OVERVIEW:
This is a trading plan based on the symbol BTC/USDT in the Bybit exchange.
Market analysis and setup provided by Shade from 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲 𝗛𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀 .
All trading zones are marked in the chart (with all confluences/key levels noted in each zone).
Entries will not be placed automatically at the first line of the 'Trading Zone'.
Only enter trades if enough confirmations are present in the chart.
TH TERMINOLOGIES:
𝗩𝗦𝗥: 🇻🇪🇨🇹🇴🇷 🇸🇺🇵🇵🇴🇷🇹 🇦🇳🇩 🇷🇪🇸🇮🇸🇹🇪🇳🇨🇪; 𝗘𝗠𝗔: 🇪🇽🇵🇴🇳🇪🇳🇸🇮🇦🇱 🇲🇴🇻🇮🇳🇬 🇦🇻🇪🇷🇦🇬🇪; 𝗩𝗪𝗔𝗣: 🇻🇴🇱🇺🇲🇪 🇼🇪🇮🇬🇭🇹🇪🇩 🇦🇻🇪🇷🇦🇬🇪 🇵🇷🇮🇨🇪;
𝗩𝗭: 🇻🇪🇨🇹🇴🇷 🇿🇴🇳🇪; 𝗟𝗭: 🇱🇮🇶🇺🇮🇩🇮🇹🇾 🇿🇴🇳🇪; 𝗙𝗜𝗕 𝗚𝗣: 🇫🇮🇧🇴🇳🇦🇨🇨🇮 🇬🇴🇱🇩🇪🇳 🇵🇴🇨🇰🇪🇹; 𝗙𝗜𝗕 𝗘𝗫: 🇫🇮🇧🇴🇳🇦🇨🇨🇮 🇪🇽🇹🇪🇳🇸🇮🇴🇳;
𝗔𝗗𝗥: 🇦🇻🇪🇷🇦🇬🇪 🇩🇦🇮🇱🇾 🇷🇦🇳🇬🇪; 𝗔𝗪𝗥: 🇦🇻🇪🇷🇦🇬🇪 🇼🇪🇪🇰🇱🇾 🇷🇦🇳🇬🇪; 𝗣𝗦𝗬: 🇵🇸🇾🇨🇭🇴🇱🇴🇬🇮🇨🇦🇱; 𝗣𝗣: 🇵🇮🇻🇴🇹 🇵🇴🇮🇳🇹;
𝗙𝗩𝗚: 🇫🇦🇮🇷 🇻🇦🇱🇺🇪 🇬🇦🇵; 𝗣𝗢𝗖: 🇵🇴🇮🇳🇹 🇴🇫 🇨🇴🇳🇹🇷🇴🇱; 𝗩𝗔𝗛: 🇻🇦🇱🇺🇪 🇦🇷🇪🇦 🇭🇮🇬🇭; 𝗩𝗔𝗟: 🇻🇦🇱🇺🇪 🇦🇷🇪🇦 🇱🇴🇼;
LEGAL DISCLAIMER:
Trade at your own responsibility, this is not financial advice.
US TECH: Would you like butter on that toast?When US Tech stocks were heading in a northbound trend, nobody had a problem in 'predicting' anything.
Now we see the emergence of a death cross, and folk are struggling to believe what's happening. At each major bearish rebellion in the bear trend, there are shouts of hope.
Even slight increases in unemployment are now a cause for hope. Because hopesters 'know' that poor employment is a sign that inflation is being beaten. And if inflation is being beaten then the FED will back off with QT and interest rate hikes. Well of course it doesn't quite work like that - there is a more complicated relationship between employment and inflation.
So volatility in all markets drawing strength from US TECH has been up lately.
Two key things to watch:
1 - Amber daily ATR.
2 - 200 EMA in relation to daily ATR.
The markets have a lot of work to do before there is a clear reversal for the north. Most of them would have to break above a daily ATR and remain above for considerable time. No sign of that as yet.
Gold - Trading in RangeAfter FED Interest Rate Decision Last Night, Gold has reach lowest point of the year at 1653.87$ then rebound to the highest point of the week 1688.125 during Powell's speech time. The weekly range is now 1688.125 - 1653.87 = 34.25$ while the average volatility is about 53$ per week.
The possibility of Gold price by end of this week can be follow
1. Trying to do Lower Low (lower than 1653) : Trend following and Sell Momentum
- Considering weekly highest point 1688.125 - 53 = 1635$ shall be support zone
- However, 1650 is also quite strong support zone now. Gold has not reach and test yet at this level.
- Support condition from USD money flow. As DXY tends to reach new higher high 112 or above, gold has possibility to go down.
2. Trying to break resistant 1690 : Trend contrarian but toward strong buy momentum
- Considering weekly Lowest point 1653.87 + 53 = 1706$ shall be resistance zone
- Support condition from USD money flow. As DXY is doing the correction after higher high reach last night. While DXY drop, gold has high possibility to raise up.
Since this week it is quite move in range (sideway and base creation), it can be considered the direction to both side. Nevertheless, considering primary trend and Macro economics news, gold will be in preferably in decline stage.
Remember to Sell at High and buy at low level, you can use daily ATR or Weekly ATR to help you to understand where you are in the graph.
Just sharing opinion, not trading advisory.
XAUUSD - Awaiting for Lower Low CorrectionGold is ready to do a correction of lower low structure. Last week it had tested at 1654 on its lowest point of the year. This week, there will be the FED interest rate decision which will likely push USD value to do higher high, this makes negative correlation to gold. While the USD is raising up, gold will be down accordingly.
Referring to Technical and statistics chart. You can see on my chart that all TF referring to Trend Diamond phase (Top right table) are all in down trend. MACD-V momentum is also recently in down-ward. We are waiting for US opening session to see the short term momentum of the market.
Currently the strategy of trend following will bring more favourable. However, you need to wait the correction and confirmation from the chart. Gold tried to reach 1680 this morning in Asia session but fail and drop to 1665. Take a look on Daily ATR level it has been test at ATR -50% already and next support zone will be ATR 75% of Sep 19 (1658)
Be careful if you open sell position. Try to place the position when the chart is at highest limitation of the day. Similar to buy position, you need to confirm it before place the order and keep in mind that it is the trend contrarian. The economics news this week may bring high volatility to gold. (Last week it was ranging about 80$ while the weekly ATR is about 55$)
My sell position is from 1680 which is the level of Support flipped to Resistant zone. My TP is 1654 which is its last lowest point of the year. My Expectation is gold will make Lower low and can be end up of this week on Friday below 1650.
See the statistics of monthly chart (bottom right table). In average it moved around 112$ , while in September is has moved only now (High - Low) around 80$ which means there is a possibility to go from 1735 - 112 = 1623$ by end of the month.
Just sharing the point of view, not trading advisory.
It's a dip, not a drop (says ATR)
Price and range typically move in opposite directions (you will pay more for a less volatile asset). The bottom chart (Average True Range) looks like a mirror image of the top (Price). For a perfect example I'm appending the same chat but have scrolled back to the COVID drop.
The ATR is in a larger downtrend that remains intact.
** It did not break out today. **
Until that changes, a price reversal remains a distinct possibility..
This is not a prediction. It's a reminder not to assume anything .
NOTE
**Chart shows the combined 3 index. They are weighted so that a 1 point change will imply the same change in $ terms. (For weights see www.barchart.com
When price and ATR jive:
ATR bullish on stocksTodays ATR continues to ignore (not confirm) a downward move in equities.
Additionally, todays index/'VIX' move is best described as a sideways shift of the daily range.
ATRSL & ATRTPYou checked the daily pattern, today is a uptrend day. On 30m & 5m chart, you draw out support & resistance levels. Current price is at the middle.
You already have a good pattern price that has recenty formed a possible swing low.
You checked the ATR levels at 1.25.
You set the ATRSL (ATR + $1 SL, then the ATRTP (1 ATR). (Here you forgot to put the 2nd level ATRTP...is it even necessary?)
The price moves slowly.. Threatening to touch but did not and price move slowly towards ATRTP.
After a time, price still did not touch ATRTP or ATRSL. But moving towards ATRTP.
This means new buyers are entering the markets.
You can find new patterns and ATR levels after a while.
You can enter new positions now or increase/decrease your ATRTP levels now.
At the ATRTP, price can either reverse or continue. It depends on the price action most recently after you have entered the position. If there are obvious targets of ATRTP and S&R, price will go on. It is better to set the ATRTP level as it is difficult to catch sudden jumps in price that is only few seconds...
Average True Range... and BollingersATR is a great indicator designed to show you the previous ranges of the previous candles depending on the value chosen, in this example I have done 6 periods, so you can see in this chart I have highlighted when we have peaks and troughs and one thing to do is compare the times of day this activity happens, you can see at certain times the atr climbs, it stalls at others or can fall, so ATR is showing us previous candles range, so if you are in a trade you want the range to be growing usually so that your trade can head to TP, but the important thing to takeaway is the fact that price is moving alot, this is because it is experiencing higher level of trading activity price is trending, where as a falling ATR reading means typically things are slowing down or accumulating, remember this doensnt give direction though as price can still move up or down despite a falling range per candle. However what it can do is tell you good times to look for trades, you can filter down by time the best time to take trades based on your strategy winning or losing in the peaks of troughs. ATR can also be used to determine stop losses of TP, by taking the the reading and using a 2xreading stop loss or TP, the more volatile the market the bigger your stop losses and tp will be, but more volatility generally correlates well with that idea, not only does it offer greater protection it also prevents missing out on good moves. So 2nd part is Bollinger bands we can see how it works, it basically again is telling you the range of things, so Id like you to compare the reading on ATR to the Bollingers, and you can see when ATR falls and the Bollingers are squeezing tight we have very little to trade, energy is low and range is small, In crypto I have heard this term called the crab which I have to say... I do find quite amusing. When ATR is rising the Bollingers expand creating a wide cloud, so on the last box, where price falls despite ATR falling... what is the difference this time? That is right, Bollingers are not squeezed together, which tells us the ATR reading is acting like it is small and stuck in a squeezing formation but in fact we are just in an expansion of the Bollinger moving slowly. What do I want you to take away from this? Just a deeper thought about which market conditions are best for your strategy and how to avoid times which will not really offer a good trade yet ect, and have a look for patterns in how you trade around these volatility indicators! Happy trading... More to come
strategy over next 3 weeks should be profitable (volatility)INTRO
15 year old trader in England comment your ideas want to know what u think
Over the next 3 weeks I believe if you wait for volatility peaks or volatility consolidation trading sideways basically and then take a short or long position depending on economic data coming over this week this will create vol in the markets which will help the strategy create the ideal market conditions to take a position. This week many economic events are happening meaning markets will correlate to these events meaning there will be a reason behind the madness meaning before the data is released equites could trade sideway and then react to the data released going long or short. This strategy should be profitable while taking other fundamental and technical factors into account
IS THE STRATERGY GOING TO BE SUCCESFUL
volatility should increase over this week because traders will want to trade the economic data coming in this week which will mean either two things equites will consolidate or there will be a burst of liquidity over this week which could be crushed if the fed decide to hike rates even further which will cause liquidity to deuterate even further causing markets to consolidate. this means extended high volatility periods are inevitable which could mean a hard week for traders as there is no liquidity for them to exit their positions. the strategy i have outlined could be affected by this but by taking the money flow index into account before taking a trade it will mean if there is a extended period of volatility liquidity should follow but we could be trading sideways for the next few week. as i have shown here their are so many possible outcomes this week because of the pure amount of variables but if I believe this strategy will mean all of these possible situations will be tradable meaning it could be profitable over the next 3 weeks
MAIN ECONMIC EVENTS THAT WILL IMPACT THE STRAT
Over the next week we have the producer price index data this measures the change in input price of goods and services, it measures the input costs. if the input costs rises it will mean a decrease in profit margin for business and rising costs for the customer and if it falls decreasing costs for the customer and increasing profit margins for the business. this will impact the strategy because if the data is better investor confidence will increase in the current health of the business which will mean and increase of buyers providing liquidly to the market and of course the opposite for if the data is worse than we expected. as well as the core retail sales date which basically measures the sales at the retail level in the us which will be impacted by current consumer spending with credit spending be very high at the moment the forecast is higher than the previous. but it should be the opposite because of recessionary fears which shows a slight bit of compliancy by the American consumer. if the forecast is positive as expected it should be bullish for equites especially retail stocks such as WMT. As well as large decisions coming from the fed with the interest rate decision coming in which could completely change the markets liquidity and direction in addition to the FOMC economic projections which will affect investor confidence for the good or bad we will see. all off these factors will affect the market deeply. which will be a perfect condition for the strategy to operate
Gold BULLISH Target 1877 looks bullish for the next few days, the 200 ema is starting to turn upwards above the 500 ema. Most likely Gold will try to rise back up to the 1862-1866 area, if it breaks then it will continue to rise to the 1877 target. If for example it fails to rise then it is possible will go back down to 1836 if the immediate support at 1847 is broken.
Open Trade Buy in 1853.5-1847
SL 1844
TP 1877
Is the SPY carving out a bottom? A Bollinger and MA study. In this video I discuss the importance of the 3rd standard deviation from the 50 SMA on the SPY, QQQ, and NDX. Details in video.
TLDR:
The SPY has found itself at extremes: The Stochastic, the ATR, and the 3rd standard deviation (lower Bollinger Band) on the weekly timeframe all show this.
Pull up the weekly SPY, add the Bollinger Band - go to settings: change the period to 50 and the stnddv to 3, add ATR, add Stochastic, add the 50 SMA - these will paint a picture of the extremes
Study the corrections vs the crashes, 00', 08', 18', 20', 22' - ask yourself: is this a correction or a crash?
Consider the extremes and consider the history of corrections/crashes and how they uses these extremes.
I have heard this argument A LOT last week: " The NASDAQ and IWM are already at -30%.....if the SPY is to go lower that means the NASDAQ may go to -45% and THIS is not possible."
---> I beg to differ, but recognize the importance of the Bollinger bounce. Look at the dot com bubble and the housing market crash, extremes can be used as a trend line for extended periods.
Remember, nothing goes straight down or up, there is always trending days/periods and range days/periods. It is best to be able to quickly identify which type of day/period you are trading in in order to ultimately use your indicators correctly.
Although I remain in the bear camp, I am absolutely open to the idea of a huge massive bounce here before the 200 SMA is tested. This bounce may come with a test of the 50 SMA in the 440's - where is goes from there I am not yet ready to speculate on. Since though I am remaining bearish, I do see a higher probability of the 200 SMA being tested before the real rally to the 50 begins. Either way, I do expect a rally in the near term, news and catalysts aside.
Please watch the video for a more detailed look, and please chart this out yourself to draw your own conclusions.....as these are ONLY my opinions and NOT financial advise.
Long Scalp SPX/SPY May 04 2022We can see based on the yearly volatility , that the current expected movement is around 1.75 - 2% +-
Our top is going to be 4250
Our bot is going to be 4075
From the technical analysis point,
Volume was broken on the top side above 4150 and 4175 (yesterday and today POC volume) so thats a strong momentum indication for long opportunity.
At the same time we can see that on 15 min we got a long entry at 4155
I believe we can go towards 4200 minimum
From fundamental point of view
We have the PMI release and later on today we have FOMC -> interest rate decision.
This last movement is the one that bring the highest amount of volatility possible.
So I strongly recommend you to be out of the position before that happens, and once the market stabilize and takes a direction, re enter again.
Btcusd 29 April 2022TOP Side = 41000 - 41500 according to Implied Volatility and ATR
BOT Side = 38000 - 38500 according to Implied Volatility and ATR
Expected movement at 28April 00h between 3.5 - 4.5% movement during the day
In terms of fundamentals that can affect BTC
In terms of technical analysis, our product ONE TOOL TO RULE
For 15 min gave a short entry around 39500.
At the same time we can see that main concentred volume area is around 39600, so there is not so much
interest above that point
Conclusion:
After the "rally" from yesterday, I believe today we are going to have a correction(short) movement,
and close around 39000(or below)
SP500 28 April 2022Close candle of 27 April = 4180
Expected opening price for today = 4210(at least based on ES movement and volume)
TOP Side = 4280 - 4300 according to Implied Volatility and ATR
BOT Side = 4120 - 4100 according to Implied Volatility and ATR
Expected movement at 28April 00h between 1.5 - 2.5% movement during the day
In terms of fundamentals that can affect SP500
At 14:30 european time(in 4h) we have the release of :
US GDP
US Jobless claims
Both of the them are expected to lower than previous values -> Bearish Movements
So final decision:
Once SPX is going to get closer to 4280-4300 we can go into a short trade
with SL around 4325-4330 ? and aim for 4250-4200
However all of this can changed based on whats going to happen within the first hour
of SPX opening
The current intraday mood for SPX is fully bearish because of yesterday.
However there a high chance that within the first hour of opening we can get an
Iron condor SIGNAL, with 4280/4125 aproximatively.
Further update will come once the SPx opens
Potential Bearish entry BTC Based on the current market view, we have been in a sidemarket channel for the last week.
We can see that the channel was made from 41.000 as a top and 39000 as a bottom.
By using these values and taking a look at the same time on the ATR and implied volatility, we can with certain degree estimate the next movement of this asset.
This is a 1:2 Risk/reward ratio short entry
Key points :
Stop loss : 41500
Take profit : 39200
ATR and RSI in price actionI explain in this video how I view the relationship between ATR and RSI in true trend following situations. This is not about trend continuation or harmonics.
This is on the India50 - a 2H time frame. But always one has to look higher to understand the risk and rebellions that may be ahead.
Trading is not about investing. It is primarily about exploiting parts of trends. So you're in and out of the markets, to catch a slice of some trend.
There are bound to be losses. You absolutely cannot make profits without suffering losses.
The business of minimising losses and maximising winning positions - in trend following - has no strict formula. It is about experience in the markets. And each market/instrument has its own personality.
For tend followers taking some or all profits in a deep RSI trench is a good thing. The ATR can show important trend switches.
There are trading platforms that can be programmed to follow the ATR (or any other indicator), in trend following. (House rules do not permit me to mention here). On such platforms one can program a trade to close if price is above or below a certain figure on the RSI.
Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Watching for a breakWatching EURJPY for a longer term play anticipating a break of the consolidation zone.
Price has been on a run since March 7th so there is potential for a small retracement in price below 134.700 before further continuation higher. That 134.700 level + 1 ATR would be a my stop position on a positive break of the range here too. Downside move stop would be ATR above 136.000 whole number.
136.500 - 137.000 has been a key selling point for price action which as struggled to get much footing. If price moves into this zone on a break be very careful if volume starts to pick up. Once the level breaks however there could be a large upside.
As always we'll be using our Average Daily Range tool to plot potential intra-day moves if we layer in bids on the break.
DJI: More troubleWhat's happening here?
1 - There is a sharp ATR spike for the down side.
2 - Price has made a struggling rebellion (so far).
At each sharp spike of the ATR price has travelled south. That doesn't mean price is bound to do the same again.
However the latest spike down is even sharper than the previous two.
What this means is that there is a 51% chance of further movement south (leaving 49% chance for the opposite).
If price moves south, I do not know how far south as I cannot see into the future.
Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
GET READY - is the DJI setting up for a major correction?In this video, I compare the movements of the DJI with the DAX.
There are no predictions here. What I am saying, is to get ready.
Price can move in any direction but there is a 4H ATR trendline indicating that the trend strength is for the south.
As I cannot predict the future, this scenario is only relevant up to the time of posting. The markets can do as they like and prove me wrong.
Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
AUDJPY(1D) - KILLZONE AHEADIt's a killzone. It doesn't mean you're going to make tons of money.
In fact you have a better chance of losing money.
Unfortunately - I tend to talk more about losses, cuz it's the most important thing in trading to control. Sorry!
Assess your ATR, on this time frame. Know your acceptable loss. Control the loss if shorting in the killzone.
Prepare to lose! All traders need to do that!
Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
gbpjpygbpjpy
long zone
forex signal
price is reach daily level and creat a daily pivot and we can open long in this chart
GBPJPY
open long:149.700
tp:151.200
tp:152.378
tp:153.557
tp:154.734
tp:155.911
tp:157
tp:158
sl:148.700
