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ATR

Long Scalp SPX/SPY May 04 2022We can see based on the yearly volatility , that the current expected movement is around 1.75 - 2% +- Our top is going to be 4250 Our bot is going to be 4075 From the technical analysis point, Volume was broken on the top side above 4150 and 4175 (yesterday and today POC volume) so thats a strong momentum indication for long opportunity. At the same time we can see that on 15 min we got a long entry at 4155 I believe we can go towards 4200 minimum From fundamental point of view We have the PMI release and later on today we have FOMC -> interest rate decision. This last movement is the one that bring the highest amount of volatility possible. So I strongly recommend you to be out of the position before that happens, and once the market stabilize and takes a direction, re enter again.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by exlux
Btcusd 29 April 2022TOP Side = 41000 - 41500 according to Implied Volatility and ATR BOT Side = 38000 - 38500 according to Implied Volatility and ATR Expected movement at 28April 00h between 3.5 - 4.5% movement during the day In terms of fundamentals that can affect BTC In terms of technical analysis, our product ONE TOOL TO RULE For 15 min gave a short entry around 39500. At the same time we can see that main concentred volume area is around 39600, so there is not so much interest above that point Conclusion: After the "rally" from yesterday, I believe today we are going to have a correction(short) movement, and close around 39000(or below)
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by exlux
SP500 28 April 2022Close candle of 27 April = 4180 Expected opening price for today = 4210(at least based on ES movement and volume) TOP Side = 4280 - 4300 according to Implied Volatility and ATR BOT Side = 4120 - 4100 according to Implied Volatility and ATR Expected movement at 28April 00h between 1.5 - 2.5% movement during the day In terms of fundamentals that can affect SP500 At 14:30 european time(in 4h) we have the release of : US GDP US Jobless claims Both of the them are expected to lower than previous values -> Bearish Movements So final decision: Once SPX is going to get closer to 4280-4300 we can go into a short trade with SL around 4325-4330 ? and aim for 4250-4200 However all of this can changed based on whats going to happen within the first hour of SPX opening The current intraday mood for SPX is fully bearish because of yesterday. However there a high chance that within the first hour of opening we can get an Iron condor SIGNAL, with 4280/4125 aproximatively. Further update will come once the SPx opens
SP:SPX
by exlux
ATR and RSI in price actionI explain in this video how I view the relationship between ATR and RSI in true trend following situations. This is not about trend continuation or harmonics. This is on the India50 - a 2H time frame. But always one has to look higher to understand the risk and rebellions that may be ahead. Trading is not about investing. It is primarily about exploiting parts of trends. So you're in and out of the markets, to catch a slice of some trend. There are bound to be losses. You absolutely cannot make profits without suffering losses. The business of minimising losses and maximising winning positions - in trend following - has no strict formula. It is about experience in the markets. And each market/instrument has its own personality. For tend followers taking some or all profits in a deep RSI trench is a good thing. The ATR can show important trend switches. There are trading platforms that can be programmed to follow the ATR (or any other indicator), in trend following. (House rules do not permit me to mention here). On such platforms one can program a trade to close if price is above or below a certain figure on the RSI. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
I
by Captain_Walker
Watching for a breakWatching EURJPY for a longer term play anticipating a break of the consolidation zone. Price has been on a run since March 7th so there is potential for a small retracement in price below 134.700 before further continuation higher. That 134.700 level + 1 ATR would be a my stop position on a positive break of the range here too. Downside move stop would be ATR above 136.000 whole number. 136.500 - 137.000 has been a key selling point for price action which as struggled to get much footing. If price moves into this zone on a break be very careful if volume starts to pick up. Once the level breaks however there could be a large upside. As always we'll be using our Average Daily Range tool to plot potential intra-day moves if we layer in bids on the break.
by RuckSack
DJI: More troubleWhat's happening here? 1 - There is a sharp ATR spike for the down side. 2 - Price has made a struggling rebellion (so far). At each sharp spike of the ATR price has travelled south. That doesn't mean price is bound to do the same again. However the latest spike down is even sharper than the previous two. What this means is that there is a 51% chance of further movement south (leaving 49% chance for the opposite). If price moves south, I do not know how far south as I cannot see into the future. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30
by Captain_Walker
GET READY - is the DJI setting up for a major correction?In this video, I compare the movements of the DJI with the DAX. There are no predictions here. What I am saying, is to get ready. Price can move in any direction but there is a 4H ATR trendline indicating that the trend strength is for the south. As I cannot predict the future, this scenario is only relevant up to the time of posting. The markets can do as they like and prove me wrong. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30
by Captain_Walker
AUDJPY(1D) - KILLZONE AHEADIt's a killzone. It doesn't mean you're going to make tons of money. In fact you have a better chance of losing money. Unfortunately - I tend to talk more about losses, cuz it's the most important thing in trading to control. Sorry! Assess your ATR, on this time frame. Know your acceptable loss. Control the loss if shorting in the killzone. Prepare to lose! All traders need to do that! Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
by Captain_Walker
3
Idea about $ZSZscaler is a cloud-based information security company. The company has more than 100 data centers with clients in 185 countries around the world. Most of the clients are located in the United States. Revenue of $673 million (2020). Capitalization of $51.2 billion. A deal for a false breakout of the extremum ($376). 1) The closing of the daily candle is far from the extreme 2) Approach to the level on candles significantly exceeding the ATR Short: $376.2 Target: $361 Stop above $381 NOT IRR.
NASDAQ:ZSShort
by Trader_Ivankov
USDJPY - LONG POSITION, Break above previous structure.EHaving broken structure looking left, there may be cause to expect price to further rise. Daily Trend - Identified as Bullish 4hr - Previous structure highs broken, printing a doji currently however, end of trading will be affecting over the weekend. Entering next bar market if no engulfing candle is present, or large jumps. Stops placed an ATR below the minor level of structure, previous red candle. Targets currently at lowest Fibonacci level identified. - Try extending Fibs from previous extension, fib inversion, etc. Lots of matching levels. Risk/Reward currently above a 1:1 however, have to check before possible entry.
Long
by shprice
Tutorial | How To Calculate "Flush Zones" Using ATRHoly sell-off Batman. Today we finally had some volatility, and a 2-3% down day in the stock indices. This range expansion seems like a perfect day to come back with another lesson on market tendencies and using ATR to calculate flush zones. What's a flush zone you ask? It's where the weak hands get flushed. For this lesson, I'm using prior session lows as the levels to measure the zone, but you can apply this concept to any significant level. And remember, you can do this with any instrument. Try it in AAPL or BTCUSD or your favorite symbol.
CME_MINI:ESZ2021Education
by RodCasilli
7
SPY Average True Range, Rising Wedge, Volume and FibsAverage True Range Analysis Price action on SPY has been getting tighter and tighter as it comes deeper into this rising wedge structure. This is most clearly viewed on the Average True Range. I have taken the standard 14 period look back and times it by 7 to get the weekly look back and we can see clear divergence. A falling true range means that there is a tightening of volatility in the market which suggest a big move is pending. I prefer the ATR to other measures of volatility, such as the bollinger band width because simply, it is easier for me to visualize the ATR and the divergence thereof. Taking a wider view on just the Average True Range and price action we can see that for the last 5 years when the weekly ATR is declining while price action is increasing we have a very strong move to the upside but then a very quick spill once the rising support is breached. As the chart also shews for the last 3 times each spill was worse than the one before. Rising Wedge Analysis Bitcoin and crypto is its own beast, but a quick look shows that rising wedges have been performing violently in a separate part of the broader market. In the first green instance the cloned trend line completely failed to act as support for price action and instead was resistance when price action basically teleported to the bottom of the wedge. On the current blue wedge we see that the cloned trend line has begun to act as some support. I personally think that it has a high chance of becoming a bear flag, but that still remains to be seen. This diversion to look at bitcoin was to shore up my supposition that we will see some potential action at the cloned trend line of SPYs resistance. We cant tell yet if it will act as resistance or support just yet. Fib and Volume Analysis A look at the top chart shows there has been almost no volume participation in this uptrend since $390. That is about a 13% drop from here and if the wedge begins to perform as suspect it may that 13% will be gone rather quickly. Price action above the upper value area often goes away impulsively. From there I would look for retracements that align with fib retracements from the C19 spill and we see a lot of activity between the previous high at 339 down to the 0.618 area at $292. Quite clearly I can't predict if/when support will give. I have an assumption that the 1.618 to 1.66 level will hold as resistance and we will see a lot of profit taking at that level. Which means SPY could walk sideways out of this rising wedge and have a slow roll over. That would be a minority position of mine. What we do see from the C19 dump is a very technical ABC correction. The ABC correction often sees Wave C go to a 1.618 extention of Wave A or greater. We see from the chart below that price action began to find support the 1.618 level and had a final stab down at the 2 level. Very likely if this breaks down as I suppose we will see an ABC correction and point B will give people a last chance to get out before price proceeds downwards or will give shorter a technical place to deploy their strategies. Once we see a prospective B wave completing the time to do the fib extension will be upon us. And as I look for that ABC correction hopefully point C will line up with some of the target areas from the main chart, supported by volume nodes. Not to layer t0o many suppositions on top of one another but I suspect we may see a bear flag/bwave around the potential channel support at the 1.414 level and we can take our ABC wave fib extension from there. The target will of course depend on how much upside that B wave shows. The chart below shows the NQ1!/SPXUSD. That paring gives us the most price action we can get on the Nasdaq and S&P500 but it comes at the cost of not being able to do any volume analysis. In general NDX does what SPX does, just with more volatility and the chart shews that. So far the pair price action has not been able to get into the previous wedge structure that it was consolidating in. That suggest to me that people are distributing NDX holdings more than they are SPY holdings and we may see NDX go down quicker than SPY From there I would be watching for a potential higher timeframe bull trap. I expound on the NDX/SPY paring in my linked ideas which are a couple months old at this point.
AMEX:SPYShort
by This_Guhy
15
DAX Increase - Upwind or even less volatility ??Hello trader, The DAX is facing the biggest reform since it was introduced in 1988. In September next year, the German benchmark index is to be expanded from 30 to 40 corporations. In addition, companies will have to meet stricter regulations in the future - also in response to the Wirecard scandal. On the other hand, after protests from investors and armaments companies, Deutsche Börse decided against the previously discussed banishment of companies that do business in controversial weapons, for example. The new 10 stocks can be found in the diagram. 8 are already determined, the 10th candidate will be either beiersdorf or Qigen. While the US markets are behaving strongly, the DAX only moves 130 times a day, so I will concentrate on other markets in the near future. ETF investors can stay relaxed: The changeover takes place automatically, without any active intervention. ETF providers will purchase securities based on the weights. The index will be calculated on the new basis from the reference date. The new companies will make up almost ten percent of the total DAX volume. The switch is not a disadvantage for investors. A Dax ETF is suitable for optimizing your regional diversification in your portfolio - we recommend, however, a look at broader European indices such as the EuroStoxx 600, or take a look at the US markets, which are behaving very strongly the DAX only scores 130 points per day. I would like to mention that all I post are just options and my own opinion ! if you like my posts smash the like👍👍 button, comment or follow me. Thanks for reading my ideas, Trade save!!
OANDA:DE30EUR
by TR7z
10
The Nasdaq 100 (NQ1!) ATR Says It's Due For A Fall Everyone can see the Nasdaq 100 is extended. Heck, the index has added nearly 1000 points in only the last few weeks. But despite the price strength, we have a sign/signal that the mighty may be ready for a fall. The 7-Day Average True Range (ATR) of the Nasdaq 100 Futures Market (NQ1!) hit the lowest level of year, and is down over 60% since May 20. I've linked to a related Video Idea on ATR below. How we're expressing a short idea: Keeping it simple. When the NQ1! hit 15670, we bought the QQQ Sep10w 375 Puts for a 1.02 debit. We'll likely spread if the trade moves in our favor this week. Risk is 50% of premium paid regardless of underlying so we stop out around .50
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by RodCasilli
1
Tutorial | How To Use ATR & Volume Profile To Project Highs/LowsThere are many ways to project price levels when looking at un charted territory (e.g. new highs). Elliot Wave, Gann, fractals, Fibonacci, or a measured move, all are methodologies that can provide levels to watch to predict range expansion when there is no price to reference. In this lesson, I show how to use another approach, utilizing the 7-Day Average True Range (ATR) and the prior session Point of Control (POC). Settings ATR Period: 7 Day EMA P.S. I didn't mention in the video, but check out how well an ATR Projection worked leading into Jackson Hole Friday. 4470 prior day POC to a high the next day at 4510. I went to California schools, so math ain't my strong suit, but I think that's 40 points or 1 ATR.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by RodCasilli
5
Is Bitcoin in real trouble?Well, some sneered a few weeks ago when I pointed out the 1D trend switch, that created a probability of a 50% correction. It happened. There was a deafening silence thereafter. As I say too often trend switches create probabilities which predict nothing. In this chart I'm looking at the 3D time frame where price has moved up to touch the ATR line. This is usually a critical point. It doesn't mean that price is bound to reverse. If you believe Bitcoin is going to $500,000 this is your opportunity to put your money where your mouth is. If you believe price is likely to vacillate at this this level and travel further south then you short it - at your own risk of course. If you are a sensible trader and you want to wait - avoiding FOMO - then do that. The great thing about trading is that you can do whatever you want! Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Captain_Walker
How to Stay in a Risk Defined Trade: AMZNNASDAQ:AMZN tanked on earnings down to a Support level I liked for a long trade. I talked about the Support level and drew up the trade during my Livestream last Friday. This morning's price action breached the Earnings low and I was made aware by an alert. It did not trigger my Stop Loss though. A lot of new traders may try to play bottoms such as this but not have clearly defined risk. This can prove disastrous if price does break the level and continues to move against the trade. One way that a trader can define their risk is to use a multiple of Average True Range (ATR). ATR is a measure of the average range of a user defined number of bars in history. It is a great tool for assessing the volatility of the instrument being traded as it will be relative and responsive to the specific instrument. An instrument that moves in a tight range for a period of time will have a low ATR and an instrument that moves a lot will have a high ATR. If the instrument experiences a price movement that exceeds the recent ATR it can often signal a significant change. Using ATR for setting Stop Losses defines the risk at the start of the trade so that the position size can be calculated and standardized. Rules such as this are important for standardizing a strategy and making it consistently profitable. In the example of Amazon I used a Stop Loss that was set 65% of ATR below the Earnings Low. This allowed price to do a false breakout of the low but left enough space for the trade to remain active.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by norok
1