Don't be long on T - yetWaiting for major support to go long. Till then all drama for T lawsuit on merge will be over as well.
Att
AT&T STRAIGHT UP OR ONE MORE CORRECTIVE WAVE?AT&T is in the middle of a correction. Look to the price action for a possible move down to complete this X wave and a bounce to the upside for the Y wave.
Trade the channel in TTrade the channel in T - till it get dividend cut - if it happens. If not, buy at lower channels and hold it up. In between collect dividends.
TMUS, VZ, S all eating away at the bottom lineCompetition from Verizon (VZ), T-Mobile (TMUS) and Sprint (S) has cut into T's margins and bottom-line earnings and the chart set up isn't looking good here
ES1!: Wedge Wedge Wedge for potential -10% Right, I have articulated previously on how I feel fundamentally about S&P500 earnings growth and think the anti-trade rhetoric is not going away till Nov mid-terms. ES1! is trading at the top of a mini-wedge tucked within a medium term wedge. Drawing on my Dr Suess instincts to try to explain this:
Wedge 1 is mini wedge which I believe is a continuation pattern from the short-term peak on 14 June
Wedge 2 is the medium term wedge which I believe is a continuation pattern from the Jan - Feb correction
If you recall, the Jan - Feb correction represents a trend line break of the seemingly improbable Fibo-busting 2-yr bull run from Feb'16.
So a breakdown from Wedge 1 will give us a -2% downside target to 2660 which happens to the the lower boundary of Wedge 2.
A breakdown from Wedge 2 will give us a -10% downside target to 2440/60 which happens to be the 38.2% retracement of the Feb'16 uptrend.
Follow me so far?
This reinforced the signal from my UST/SPX relative return model which is in deep buy territory for UST, hence my earlier calls to buy TY1!, TLT and did I talk about T US? Hang on to your breeches!
$TThis one has not broke the MACD yet, but this day over day gain is looking really positive. I think we could see it cross by the end of the week and see very good gains. Looks like there is a resistance around $37 and it is gaining volume.
Expected volatility in AT&T The final ruling in the anti-trust case against the proposed AT&T-Time Warner merger is expected on June 12. Either way the decision goes, price movement is likely. Current prices suggest a recovery from the recent decline. Options strategies that hedge against movement in any direction may be profitable.
ATT & T: took profits today.Has developed a negative reversal followed by a bearish divergence in the daily RSI which often leads to some decline.
Cup and Handle Pattern?We see a Cup and Handle pattern starting on the 10/30/17 selloff when they announced that the merger between NASDAQ:TMUS and NYSE:S was officially off after years of talk. Once price recovered and hit the $62s level again on 11/27/17, we see a slight decline, as people who bought in at that level were looking to get out. The price is finally back at the mid $62s finishing the Handle pattern. Will we see a breakout next week?
AT&T monthly corrective structure! pretty basic. Should be a great long term buy sometime after breaking A wave low!!
AT&T Buy IdeaW1 - Range
H4 - Price broke above the swing high at 39.35.
Scenario 1 - One more wave down then buys with TL breakout.
Scenario 2 -
H1 - Most recent high and TL was already broken up. We can go long as long as last low around 37.95 is holding. We can wait for another small correction and trend line to be created, and wait for a breakout to enter.
M 15 - Could it push from this level - Yes, most definitely. But it never hurts to be conservative.
ATTSo I have notice whether the estimates were made,missed, or spot on the stock price seems to move on its own. I did by the stock because of the low price on bad news, i believe over reaction by the big players. Over the last 5 days the stock has had a sell off @ 10:00 am. No doubt the big boys selling off. I have also seen buying in smaller lots. Lastly the 4:30 hour 2.3 million shares were purchased just prior to the real close of the market. moving the price from 36.20 to 37.35. I figured that the stock should not get much lower and, up to this point, lucked out and got a low price. I'm trying to expand my abilities technically evaluating charts. I don't use puts, call i understand them by definition but not well enough to bet on them. I make about 7-10 / trade but must learn more to earn more....no i cant afford a class. So teach me how to read this chart.
AT&T revenues dip as wireless equipment sales slideAT&T (T -0.2%) is up 1.2% now in choppy early postmarket action after reporting Q1 earnings that met profit expectations but recorded a billion-dollar miss on revenues.
Consolidated revenues slipped 2.8% on "record-low equipment sales" in wireless. EPS fell on a headline basis, but adjusted EPS grew to $0.74 (in line) from a year-ago $0.72.
Cash from operations was $9.2B; free cash flow came to $3.2B.
Revenues by segment: Business Solutions, $16.85B (down 4.3%); Entertainment Group, $12.6B (down 0.3%); Consumer Mobility, $7.74B (down 7.1%); International, $1.9B (up 15.7%).
It added 2.7M net wireless customers: 2.1M in the U.S. and 633,000 in Mexico. Postpaid phone churn hit a best ever 0.9% in the U.S., while overall wireless postpaid churn was 1.12% including tablet churn.
AT&T Still FallingOn April 13, 2017, AT&T ( NYSE:T ) crossed below its 150 day moving average (DMA). Historically this has occurred 223 times and the stock does not always drop. It has a median loss of 3.679% and a maximum loss of 21.351% over the next 20 trading days.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 32.0245. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is trending down and could enter oversold territory soon.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently -12.2241. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is moving down.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.8389 while the negative is at 1.1199. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock has been moving down, but the pace is slowing. Also the positive indicator is beginning to rise meaning price action could slow in the short-term leaving the door open for a price change in either direction.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 14.0197 and D value is 11.0155. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the price action is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the price action is trending down. The current reading declares the stock is in oversold territory, but it has been flirting around this point since the end of March.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to continue heading down. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop another 2% over the next 20 trading days. AT&T has crossed the 150 DMA in three of the last four sessions. The most recent similar flirtations with the 150 DMA have occurred in October 2014, November 2014, February 2015, August 2015, January 2016, and September 2016. The losses were 4.776%, 8.083%, 5.684%, 8.101%1.328%, and 4.355% respectively. This drop could ultimately result in a loss of nearly 4% to the bottom of the macro trend line (thick yellow line) 38.50-38.75 range, but the conservative play is around 39.40.
Buy The Coming Dip For AT&TOn March 31, 2017, AT&T ( NYSE:T ) crossed below its 50 day moving average (MA) while its 100 day MA crossed over the 200 day MA. Both events have never occurred on the same day. Historically the stock has crossed below the 50 MA 330 times and the stock does not always drop. It has a median loss of 2.239% and maximum loss of 25.170 % over the next 8 trading days. Historically the 100 MA has crossed over the 200 MA 20 times and the stock does not always rise. It has a median gain of 3.959% and maximum gain of 21.067 % over the next 20 trading days.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 45.0401. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is slightly moving down.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently 3.9504. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is slightly moving down.
The negative vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.0906. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is moving down.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 22.22 and D value is 18.62. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock is coming out of an oversold level, meaning the stock should go higher in the next few days.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to be heading down in the very short term, but up in the long term. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could lose another 1% over the next 5 trading days. After this drop, the stock could move up toward the resistance level around 42.50. From the close on March 31, the stock could gain 2% within the next four weeks. If bought near the anticipated dip, the gain could be greater than 3.5%.
A little more room for AT&T to run upHistorically when the VI reaches this level, the stock rises an average of 2.77% more with a minimal move of 1.22%. If either of those occur, it would be part of a new trend. The stock is now above the previous channel that I have drawn. A commonly hit level is my forecasted move but it is roughly 0.79% from the closing price on December 21.
Historics do not lie, but they are ever changing. If the market continues its rally to #DOW20K then anything is possible. I am personally anticipating a correction in the near term hence my conservative movement for AT&T below the minimal movement ever seen in this situation.
ANOTHER 1% GAIN IN THE CARDS FOR AT&T?Historically when TSI reaches this level the stock climbs an average of 4.93% with the minimal movement of 1.25% over the next few weeks. My technical analysis has T at the top of the downward trendchannel which would signal an immediate retreat.
Both options could still occur in the near future which ultimately lead down, but not before quickly breaching the top of the trendchannel and immediately heading down.
Based on my analysis, the stock could move up to around the 42.70 level which is a commonly hit level from earlier this year. I would expect it to provide a conservative resistance level.
at&t potential buying opportunitybuy @~36.00 zone (red). Previous structure aligning with 61.8% fib retracement making a good case for entry.
People who want to invest instead of trading can be happy for the 5%+ dividend yield.
