ATVI potential long opportunitysimilar occurrence of events:
past event: 1. all time high reached
2. support level tested twice
3. the successful test turned out to be a nice buy point
potential future event: 1. all time high reached
2. support level tested twice
3. may be a good buy point if it successfully tests a third time
buy point can be both for a short term gain, or a buy and hold, depending on your perspective on this company's future potential. take this with a grain of salt.
things to look into if interested in this company's longer-term prospects: esports, overwatch league, call of duty ww2
ATVI
ATVI, Great relative strength inside day !I'm a big fan of HearthStone and Warcraft III was my favorite game back to my senior high.
That's not really important in terms of investment and trading, while it does create some preference bias for me lol.
Yesterday the market was slumped almost 1%, stocks that are able to have an inside day showed great relative strength, as most stocks may break the previous low in such a day.
For ATVI, it finished price correction to 8EMA and gives an inside day, I am willing to long the inside day breakout in such an uptrend.
THE WEEK AHEAD: AAPL, UAAEarnings
AAPL announces Tuesday after market close
Aug 11th 142/157.5 20-delta short strangle
Probability of Profit: 74%
Max Profit: $191/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: Undefined
Break Evens: 140.09/159.41 (wide of 1 standard deviation on both sides)
Theta: 19.34
Delta: .79
Aug 11th 137/142/157.5/162.5 20-delta iron condor
Probability of Profit: 70%
Max Profit: $115/contract*
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $385/contract
Break Evens: 140.85/158.65 (at 1 standard deviation, both sides)
Theta: 7.34
Delta: .56
* -- Paying less than one-third the width of the wings.
UAA announces earnings Tuesday before market open
Aug 11th 19.5 short straddle
Probability of Profit: 58%
Max Profit: $221/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: Undefined
Break Evens: 17.29/21.71 (between expected move and 1 standard deviation, both sides)
Theta: 8.82
Delta: -4.03
Aug 11th 15.5/19.5/19.5/23.5 iron fly
Probability of Profit: 53%
Max Profit: $199/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $201/contract
Break Evens: 17.51/21.49 (at expected move, both sides)
Theta: 5.11
Delta: .05
Broad Market Exchange Traded Funds
QQQ currently has the highest background implied volatility, followed by IWM, SPY, and DIA.
QQQ Sept 15th 136/149 20-delta short strangle
Probability of Profit: 66%
Max Profit: $177/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: Undefined
Break Evens: 134.23/150.77 (Wide of 1 standard deviation on the put side; between the expected and 1 standard deviation, call side)
Theta: 4.62
Delta: -2.01
QQQ Sept 15th 133/136/149/151 20-delta iron condor
Probability of Profit: 60%
Max Profit: $73/contract*
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $227/contract
Break Evens: 135.27/149.73 (at 1 standard deviation on the put; between expected and 1 standard on the call)
Theta: 1.08
Delta: -3.78
* -- Paying less than one-third the width of the widest wing.
ATVI Stock Technical AnalysisATVI is fundamentally set up for a HUGE fourth quarter. And the charts agree.
I would be in ATVI at ANY price below $60 as I believe $70 a share is a conservative target (13%).
I will try and snipe an entry at the BOTTOM of this current range to maximize gains... my limit order is set!
OPENING: ATVI COVERED PUTThis is a continuation of a trade that started as an earnings play iron fly (see post below).
There are a couple of reasons I went this particular way, as opposed to attempting to continue to work the setup "as is."
First, the March 17th 40 short call was deep in the money. Even assuming I could roll to improve that strike a bit, it would still be deep in the money. Deep in the money options are generally made up of a lot of intrinsic value, so you won't get that much time decay out of them.
Secondly (and relatedly), you can't get much of a credit to roll a deep in the money short option because you're basically rolling from a mostly intrinsicly valued option to, well, a mostly intrinsically valued option, and so you're not picking up that much premium such that you'll receive a credit for a roll. Just to make sure, I checked to see whether I could get a credit to roll out to the April 21st 40 short call "as is" and receive a credit -- no dice. Alternatively, I looked at how much a strike improvement would cost to roll from the March 17th 40 to the April 21st 41 to see whether I could sell a short put vert against for a credit which would exceed the cost of the roll; I wasn't happy with where I'd have to setup the short put vert to do that (basically, I'd roll into an inverted iron condor setup; far less than ideal).
As compared to a covered call: everything is "upside down" with a covered put: (a) you're looking to increase your cost basis in your short shares by selling puts against them; (b) if price finishes below your short by at expiry, your short shares get called away; and (c) you work to roll the short put out for duration and credit, attempting to keep it clear of current price action until you can exit the whole setup profitably. Here's I'm just looking to mitigate loss from the original broken trade or, ideally, get back to scratch.
TRADE IDEA: ATVI FEB 17TH 34/38.5/40/44.5 IRON CONDORATVI announces earnings tomorrow after market close, so look to put on a play in the waning hours of the NY sesh ... . Its implied volatility rank is >70%, and its background volatility is on the cusp of 50% ... .
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 50%*
Max Profit: $231/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $219/contract
Theta: 11.33/contract
Delta: -2.47/contract
BE's: 36.19/42.31
Notes: * -- The body of this is so narrow such that it's almost an iron fly; hence, the piss poor POP%. I considered doing the standard 20-delta iron condor here, but just couldn't squeeze out enough credit to satisfy me. I'll basically look to treat it like an iron fly, and look to take it off at 25% max profit.
Should You Add Activision Blizzard (ATVI) to Your Portfolio?The ATVI stock is a share in the ownership of Activision Blizzard, Inc., an American interactive gaming and entertainment company. Yet another tech stock we have added to our portfolio here at Invest Diva . Because, we are geeks. So if you wanna get geeky with us, let's conduct the IDDA approach on the ATVI stock to see where we stand.
1- Fundamentals
First things first, let's learn a bit about Activision Blizzard and their ATVI stock. They sure do have a cool name.
Who the heck are they?
Are you one of THOSE people who love Candy Crush? Guess what, Activision Blizzard acquired the maker of Candy Crush and home of 544 million monthly active users, King Digital Entertainment, back in 2016. So now they are officially a distributor of this ultra addictive game. Basically, they are turning into the gamer's dreamland. Headquartered in Santa Monica, California, Activision Blizzard, Inc., is one of the world's largest third-party video game publishers.
Besides Candy Crush, their franchise includes some of the strongest franchises in all of entertainment, including World of Warcraft®, StarCraft®, Diablo®, Hearthstone®, Heroes of the Storm™, Overwatch™, Call of Duty®, Skylanders® and Destiny® among others.
What are they doing differently?
Simply put, the Candy Crush owner is crushing it. Both Nintendo and Activision Blizzard achieved above $5 billion in revenue last year. However, that's where the relationship stops. When comparing recent profitability and growth, Nintendo's valuation relative to Activision Blizzard seems a bit out of whack.
In addition to Candy Crush makers, Activision Blizzard also owns four of the top 10 games on the latest consoles, including Call of Duty: Black Ops III. Blizzard users were up 23% year over year in its latest quarter. The company also notes that gamers on its platforms spent 42 billion hours in 2016, higher or in line with Netflix (NFLX), Facebook (FB), and all of the major U.S. professional sports leagues combined.
At the time of writing this article, ATVI stock market cap stands at 29.05B, versus Nintendo's 24.67B.
What's going on in their company structure?
Their CEO is 53-year-old Robert A. Kotick, who has been a director of Activision Blizzard since February 1991. His 2015 compensation was around $32,788,722. Neat.
Earnings Date: Feb 9, 2017
2- Long Term Technical Analysis
ATVI stock has been trading on the markets since June 1983. After a massive crash, it mainly remained a penny stock for almost 20 years. It wasn't until November 2004 that the share price broke above the key resistance of 4.15. Ever since, ATVI stock has turned into a growing stock, seeing the all-time high of 45.57 in August 2016.
Naturally, the market pulled back after hitting this level. It bottomed out again in December 2016, forming a Doji candle on the monthly chart, followed by a Bullish Engulfing in January 2017. It still remains above the monthly Ichimoku cloud, and is supported by the 23% Fibonacci retracement level at 34.85.
3- Market Sentiment
Read full article here .
ATVI- Short at the break of 42.43 for a longer term of 33.33 & 2ATVI started to breakdown from the upward channel. It has significant moneyflow divergence & moneyflow started to breakdown to the negative side. It has longer term downward potential to 28.13
Need to be aware of earnings on November 3rd for stock play, and for option play we are looking for $44 May Puts - $3.95
You can check our detailed analysis on ATVI in the trading room/ Executive summary link here-
www.youtube.com
Time Span: 5:40"
Trade Status: open (November 2nd)
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Trigger Finger Ready: Activision Blizzard When This Happens...I have my finger on the trigger to short Activision Blizzard, Inc. (NASDAQ:ATVI). $ATVI has had a monster run in 2016. In February 2016 the stock traded as low as $26.50 and currently is trading at $43.79. This is a whopping 65% move. The trigger is going to be the day it trades below the major up-sloping trend line. Once this happens, the stock crashes down hard to $35. I will be short the stock and profit in a major way.
ATVI - to short at the break of 39.23ATVI running within a upward channel. We think it will break down as there are Significant insider selling & negative money-flow divergence.
Break of 39.23 will be short entry confirmation. For Trade we are looking for Feb17- 34 put which are currently $1.35
Our target is 61,8% fib level at 32.85
You can check our detailed analysis on ATVI in the trading room/ Executive summery link here-
www.youtube.com
Time Span: 0:25'
Trade Status: Pending
ATVI - Short (#Priceaction_Swing_Trader)04JUN16 (Daily) - Was considering shorting the stock below the $39.61 level, for a rebound to $35.59 should we get bearish signs,
however while the stock has had a strong pin bar form from high 40s, we had stronger volume and a larger move to push the stock
into its upper trading range. Additionally we may find a base at $38.16 which limits out downside on the trade. Will continue to watch
and see how the trade unfolds.
Shorting "blizzard" - my favorite stock ;) *NASDAQ:ATVI
Always mind-blowing sell this gentleman ;) im taking a small risk, time to sink! :)
RSI is turning down, extremely overbought on monthly chart, weekly and daily chart also leaving the bulls territory with bearish divergence rsi;
*find a suitable entry on a lower time frame;
Note: Do not forget to Buy on next Earning Report ;)
Previous reports: 27 reports only 3 on red ;)
Safe trades;