Gold Bullish PennantGold(GC1!) closed at $1,713.3 today for a $12.4(+0.73%) gain. Price has formed a pennant formation which given the fact that it has formed after a move to the upside makes it a bullish price formation. The expected move here is a push above the upper line of the pennant and re-test of the $1,800 level. A move below the lower line of the pennant would indicate a failed bullish pennant, with the current stop-loss for long trades resting just below there near $1,660 shown in blue.
The Relative Strength Index(RSI) shows the green RSI line trading just above the 50 level and indicates bullish short-term momentum behind price. An RSI reading above 50 indicates bullish short-term momentum while a reading below 50 indicates bearish short-term momentum. The purple RSI signal line is also above the 50 level which indicates bullish intermediate-term momentum behind price. Right now the green RSI line and purple signal line are overlapping with the green RSI line looking like it wants to push back above the purple signal line. The green RSI line rising and trending above the purple signal line would indicate healthy bullish momentum.
The Price Percent Oscillator(PPO) shows both the green PPO line and purple signal line above the 0 level which indicates intermediate-term bullish momentum behind price. A reading above 0 indicates bullish momentum while a reading below 0 indicates bearish momentum. While both lines are above the 0 level, they are declining with the green PPO line below the purple signal line and indicates a loss of upward momentum in the short-term.
The Average Directional Index(ADX) show the green trend line above the purple trendline which indicates that the short-term trend direction is bullish. The histogram behind the green and purple directional lines is declining though which indicates that the upward trend direction has lost strength. In general during an uptrend, you want to see the green line rising above the purple line with a rising histogram.
Volume has been low since late March, should price break out to a new local high above the pennant pattern we would want to see volume increase in order to sustain a move higher.
The overall view on gold remains bullish this year with the expectation that gold will test and make a new all-time high above $1,923 which was set in September 2011. In the short-term we want to see price hold above the stop-loss level in order to maintain bullish bias, as well as continue to trade above the short-term stop-loss level.
