Gold - XAUUSD shows more resilience than initially expectedOver the past four months, gold has shown strong resilience. Despite the U.S. interest hike, gold failed to drop substantially. Instead, it moved close to its all-time high value; however, it halted its rise at 2075.63 USD. After that, gold fell below 1900 USD. Although, this drop did not last long, and gold retreated to the 1950 USD price tag a few days later. We remain bullish on XAUUSD, and our medium-term price target of 2100 USD stays in place. Our long-term price target of 2300 USD also remains active.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI and MACD are neutral. Stochastic stays bullish, and the same applies to DM+ and DM-. ADX declines, suggesting no significant trend is present. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI and Stochastic are neutral. MACD remains bullish. DM+ and DM- are bullish too. ADX continues to increase, which suggests the trend of higher degree is bullish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bullish.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows additional support/resistance levels.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
AU
AUDUSD 4hour Analysis April 10th, 2022AUDUSD Bullish Idea
Weekly Trend: Bullish
Daily Trend: Bullish
4Hour Trend: Bearish
Trade scenario 1: AU is currently experiencing a pullback that we’ve been waiting for.
Price action is falling to our 0.74000 zone where we are looking for structure formation.
Look for strong rejection around 0.74000 support followed by confirming bullish candlestick setups to enter long on.
Trade scenario 2: For us to consider AU full bearish we need to see a break of support around 0.74000 with a lower high below.
XAGUSD SILVER Supply And Demand AnalysisSee picture for top-down analysis:
-Short Term Downward ML Break
-opposing zones removed
-People might think it's a great demand setup
which I agree but taking a look at the overall
price action over the last 7 days, you can see
price is making overall LL/LH by about .6%
-If someone bought at this demand then using a
structure SL is recommended.
-Low risk reward but higher probability for a 1:1 or
0.5:1 R:R.
-NO TRADE FOR ME
AUDUSD 4hour Analysis April 3rd, 2022AUDUSD Bullish Idea
Weekly Trend: Bullish
Daily Trend: Bullish
4Hour Trend: Bullish
Trade scenario 1: We are overall very bullish on AU but we are seeing some consolidation in the form of a range at this high.
From here we need to see structure. Look for price action to pullback to support near 0.74000 with a confirmed higher low before entering long.
Trade scenario 2: For us to consider AU bearish we need to see a break of 0.74000 with a lower high below.
AUDUSD 4hour Analysis March 20th, 2022AUDUSD Bullish Idea
Weekly Trend: Bullish
Daily Trend: Bullish
4Hour Trend: Bullish
Trade scenario 1: We are very bullish on AU recently but now price action is right near key resistance around 0.74000.
We know that price action is overextended and without structure so our best play is to wait for our next structure point.
Our ideal scenario is if price action pulls back now to form a higher low closer to 0.73000. Look for strong bullish entry candles and target back toward 0.74000 resistance.
Trade scenario 2: If price action continues to rally and we see price action break through 0.74000 resistance we ideally need a structure forming higher low above 0.74000 to even consider longs.
Price action is just too overextended to take a trade without key structure.
AUDUSD 4hour Analysis March 13th, 2022AUDUSD Bullish Idea
Weekly Trend: Bullish
Daily Trend: Bullish
4Hour Trend: Bullish
Trade scenario 1: We are also looking very bullish on this pair, AU. We can consider our support level around 0.73000 as the key zone.
As long as price action is above 0.73000 we will generally be looking for long scenarios. Ideally we can spot a strong reversal above 0.73000 with entry confirmations to enter long on.
Trade scenario 2: For us to consider AU bearish we first need to see a break of 0.73000 support with a lower high below.
Gold - Gold is on its way to new ATHGold broke above 2000 USD price tag. Geopolitical tensions and weakness in the general stock market continue to act as bullish catalysts for gold. Positive outlook for gold is also supported by a combination of bullish technical factors. Because of that we would like to set a new short-term price target for XAUUSD to 2025 USD. Additionally, we would like to set a medium-term price target to 2100 USD; and long-term price target to 2300 USD.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI reached a strongly overbought condition which reflects extreme strength of the bullish trend (this phenomenon is similar to one that is occuring in the oil market and we warned about this previously). MACD and Stochastic are also bullish. DM+ and DM- show bullish conditions in the market as well. ADX exhibits steep growth which indicates the prevailing trend is getting extremely strong (however, it also shows a warning signal). Overall, the daily time frame is very bullish for gold.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI reached an overbought condition which signals a warning. MACD, Stochastic are bullish. DM+ and DM- are bullish too. ADX shows strengthening of the prevailing trend. Overall, the weekly time frame is bullish.
Please feel free to express your own ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering trade.
AUDUSD 4hour Analysis March 6th, 2022AUDUSD Bullish Idea
Weekly Trend: Bullish
Daily Trend: Bullish
4Hour Trend: Bullish
Trade scenario 1: We are looking bullish on all timeframes as we saw a major break of the 0.73000 resistance level.
From here we’re looking for our next structure point in the form of a higher low as close to 0.73000 as possible.
Trade scenario 2: For us to consider AU bearish we would need to see a break of 0.73000 with a lower high below.
AUDUSD 4hour Analysis February 27th, 2022AUDUSD Bullish Idea
Weekly Trend: Bearish
Daily Trend: Bearish
4Hour Trend: Bullish
Trade scenario 1: We are looking pretty bullish here on the 4hour timeframe and price action is holding a steady bullish channel.
The most likely scenario is that price action will continue bullish and we will look for higher lows established above 0.72000 to enter long on.
Trade scenario 2: If we are to consider AU bearish we would first need to see a 4hour transition with price action forming a lower high below 0.71450.
AUDUSD 4hour Analysis February 20th, 2022AUDUSD Bullish Idea
Weekly Trend: Bearish
Daily Trend: Bearish
4Hour Trend: Bullish
Trade scenario 1: The 4hour timeframe is looking bullish while the higher timeframes are still majorly bearish.
From where price action is right now we’re looking for a higher low near 0.71450 with bullish setups to confirm.
Look to target back toward 0.72000 and look for a break.
Trade scenario 2: If we are to consider AU bearish on this timeframe again we need to see a break of support near 0.71450 with a lower high below.
AUDUSD 4hour Analysis February 6th, 2022AUDUSD Bearish Idea
Weekly Trend: Bearish
Daily Trend: Bearish
4Hour Trend: Bearish
Trade scenario 1: Looking very bearish here on AU and last week we saw a significant bearish leg form.
From here we’re looking to continue with the bearish trend and we will be looking for lower high setups to enter short on.
Trade scenario 2: For us to consider AU bullish again we would need to see a break of resistance near 0.71000 with a higher low above.
Technical analysis update: Gold (31st January 2022)Gold took a beating after the last FOMC. It plunged below three important support levels: 1850 USD, 1835 USD and 1800 USD; additionally, this drop invalidated the recent bullish breakout above 1835 USD. The FED's commitment to raise interest rates multiple times in 2022 poses a substantial threat to gold price. The FED's aggressive stance towards raising interest rates forces us to reassess our views. We are currently inclined towards a bearish scenario as it is being signaled by bearish technical indicators and fundamental outlook for gold. We will closely watch 1775 USD and 1750 USD price levels. Previously, the 1750 USD support level acted as the lower bound of the neutral zone. If this price level is penetrated to the downside then it tremendously increases bearish odds for gold.
Illustration 1.01
Picture above shows the daily chart of XAUUSD. It also shows the neutral zone that spans between 1750 USD and 1835 USD. Gold has been trading within this zone for most of the time for the past 6 months.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI is bearish with signs of flattening. MACD points into the downside, however, it remains within the bullish zone. If it manages to cross below 0 then it will further bolster the bearish case for gold. Stochastic is bearish as well. Additionally, DM+ and DM- show a bearish trend is present. ADX increases which suggests that this trend strengthens.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI is neutral. MACD undergoes reversal just slightly above 0 points. Stochastic is bearish. DM+ and DM- are bearish too. ADX declines which signals a trend of higher degree remains neutral.
Support and resistance
Short-term resistance lies at 1835 USD. Immediate resistance lies at 1800 USD. Closest support sits at 1775 USD. Other support which has great importance lies at 1750 USD.
Please feel free to express your own ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering trade.
AUDUSD 4hour Analysis January 30th, 2022AUDUSD Bearish Idea
Weekly Trend: Bearish
Daily Trend: Bearish
4Hour Trend: Bearish
Trade scenario 1: We are looking very bearish here on AU as last week we saw huge downside movement. Currently, price action is resting at support near 0.70000, our monthly level.
Ideally, we see price action continue to form structure and are able to spot some lower highs near 0.71000 for potential short opportunities.
Trade scenario 2: If price action fails to react at 0.70000 support look for a clean break and retest with a confirmed lower high below before entering any sell positions.
AUDUSD 4hour Analysis January 23rd, 2022AUDUSD Bearish Idea
Weekly Trend: Bearish
Daily Trend: Bearish
4Hour Trend: Bearish
Trade scenario 1: Overall we are looking bearish but we need to see how price action reacts near 0.72000 first.
Ideally, we can see price action push lower then form a lower high below 0.72000. We can then look for short opportunities and target lower support levels.
Trade scenario 2: For us to consider AU bullish we would need to see a higher low above 0.72000.
AUDUSD 4hour Analysis January 16th, 2022AUDUSD Bullish Idea
Weekly Trend: Bearish
Daily Trend: Bearish
4Hour Trend: Bullish
Trade scenario 1: Higher timeframes are still holding an overall bearish trend while the 4hour trend is bullish and looks promising for the week ahead.
We’re looking for higher lows near 0.72000 support with strong bullish candlestick setups to enter long on. Look to target higher toward key resistance levels.
Trade scenario 2: For us to consider AU bearish we need to see a break of 0.72000 support with a lower high below. Target lower toward major support levels.
AUDUSD 4hour Analysis January 9th, 2022AUDUSD Bearish Idea
Weekly Trend: Bearish
Daily Trend: Bearish
4Hour Trend: Bearish
Trade scenario 1: We are back to bearish! We saw a nice bearish transition on the 4hour timeframe around our 0.72000 zone.
From here we’re looking for this lower high to confirm before entering short. Look to target lower toward 0.71000 support.
Trade scenario 2: For us to consider AU bullish again we would need to first see a higher low back above 0.72000
AUDUSD 4hour Analysis December 26th, 2021AUDUSD Bullish Idea
Weekly Trend: Bearish
Daily Trend: Bearish
4Hour Trend: Bullish
Trade scenario 1: Looking very bullish on the 4hour and we could be continuing this way if we can confirm a higher low above 0.72000.
With the right confirmations and candlestick setups enter long after the higher low and target toward 0.73000
Trade scenario 2: For us to consider AU bearish again on the 4hour look for a lower high below 0.72000.
Technical analysis update: XAUUSD (16th December 2021)Gold responded pretty well to yesterday's FOMC meeting. It soared from as low as 1753 USD yesterday to as high as 1798 USD today. We continue to maintain a bullish view on gold as we expect the tightening cycle (with presence of high inflation) to be very bullish for gold. Additionally, we expect gold to break above the resistance level at 1835 USD. We expect this breakout to be accompanied by resumption of the uptrend that will culminate in a new all-time high for gold in 2022.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI started to grow slightly (after a long period of sideways moving action) which is bullish. Stochastic is also bullish. MACD tries to reverse its direction to the upside. DM+ and DM- are due to perform a bullish crossover in the following days. ADX remains low which suggests that the prevailing trend remains neutral.
Final note - daily time frame
Overall, no trend is present. Price remains stuck between 1750 USD and 1835 USD. We continue to await a bullish breakout above the 1835 USD price tag followed by subsequent resumption of the bullish trend.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI and Stochastic are neutral. MACD remains in the bearish area; however, it needs to be observed closely in the following weeks as we expect it to perform a bullish crossover above 0 points. DM+ and DM- continue to show bearish condition. Though, ADX is very low which suggests no trend is present.
Final note - weekly time frame
Weekly time frame shows similar conditions as the daily time frame. No trend is present and price remains stuck between the support level at 1750 USD and the resistance level at 1835 USD.
Support and resistance
Short-term resistance sits at 1835 USD while short-term support sits at 1750 USD. Other resistance levels sit at 1877 USD, at 1916 USD, and then at 1965 USD. Another important support level can be found at 1676 USD.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.