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ridethepig | Australian YieldsThe gridlock continues with CB's keeping Yields interlocked for as long as possible. An attack on the highs is inevitable if you ask me, sellers base is just not strong enough. 📌 Recession Strategy US will lead for the purpose of these flows, buyers may still make concessions and allow a retest of 0.82% lows but anything else looks very difficult. The counter-play here to the topside will cause severe damage to the economy as inflation enters back into the game. I will be doing a detailed post on inflation as there have been a number of questions coming in around how it will develop. We need to keep tracking the supply side to really get into the heart of the matter. The post is going to cover much more about the reversal of globalisation , government intervention, more protectionism, productivity taking another hammer via covid, less tech and etc and how to work with these moves.
TVC:AU10YLong
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | Australian Yields breaking out? Smells like it...I would have preferred it if Aussie Yields could have sought the break for the close last week, the decision to hold up here, rather than forcing the pass is notable that Yield curve control is really coming through. Which is an appendage to the following position in AUD: Those aiming for this macro swing position are effectively trading the artificial Fed control over USD supply side . As long as the printers are on full blast, the move from Fed towards a more lenient Yield curve control playbook will be done in broad daylight, as I have been saying for some time, they were faced with a decision as to whether they wanted a stronger currency or stronger equity market. After witnessing the Whitehouse policies being funded by Keynsian economics it is a disaster for confidence in the LONG RUN for the US. Capital is beginning to slowly migrate towards Europe and Asia. Get used to China and Russia having a larger seat at the table; hence we need to keep a close eye on Australia - China relations as the elephant in the room. What is important in the positional play is not the attack, but rather how price responds at support levels. We are wanting to only add exposure in periods of consolidation, calm waters. Do not let the loud noise and sharp spikes affect your decisiveness.
TVC:AU10YLong
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | Aus 10yr Holding SupportA noteworthy breakout in Aus 10yr with the technical damage already done as bulls remain supportive at the lows. The 38.2% from the impulsive leg, although still yet to be tested will cap any further downside in the coming weeks. Here we are dealing with the capture of the pinned retrace. We have heaped up the size of our attack, but have to face up to the disappointment that said 38.2% cheerfully remains open and unlocked for a further test. The rascal was not locked yet, at the most only 'partially' ...however the issue of how to execute the impulsive nature in the attack is easily solved with the technical break. The risk to reasoning here comes from the final diagram: AUD is becoming supported by the improvements in capex intentions which is picking up faster than expected. Government infrastructure is too important and remains high before expiry in 2021. As long as the consumer re-leverages and we activity in the corp sector improves AUD will present the correct procedure for bulls and with the intention of avoiding a loss in momentum, we must track the breakout in this case the AU 10yr. We can update the thread over the coming Weeks, Months and Quarters so feel free to jump in with your idea generation and we can further the discussion for all. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
TVC:AU10
by ridethepig
1