ridethepig | Australian Yields for the Yearly Close📌 @ridethepig AU02Y Market Commentary 18.12.2020
This position which arises after the telegraphed breakout from the 10Y and thus creates space for the front end. A typical manoeuvre for the AU and NZ yields:
The analysis of the starting position shows us that the control now exists on the bid; because we know that it is the path of least resistance, so the rule is; when the market is strong we are buyers and when weak, we are sellers.
The AUD which is being "flanked" from all sides (FED, RBNZ et al) now has commodity shortages entering into play to put the cherry on top. Remain bid AUD for as long as possible; maintain contact with commodities for this cycle.
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AU30Y
ridethepig | Australian Yields breaking out? Smells like it...I would have preferred it if Aussie Yields could have sought the break for the close last week, the decision to hold up here, rather than forcing the pass is notable that Yield curve control is really coming through. Which is an appendage to the following position in AUD:
Those aiming for this macro swing position are effectively trading the artificial Fed control over USD supply side . As long as the printers are on full blast, the move from Fed towards a more lenient Yield curve control playbook will be done in broad daylight, as I have been saying for some time, they were faced with a decision as to whether they wanted a stronger currency or stronger equity market. After witnessing the Whitehouse policies being funded by Keynsian economics it is a disaster for confidence in the LONG RUN for the US. Capital is beginning to slowly migrate towards Europe and Asia. Get used to China and Russia having a larger seat at the table; hence we need to keep a close eye on Australia - China relations as the elephant in the room.
What is important in the positional play is not the attack, but rather how price responds at support levels. We are wanting to only add exposure in periods of consolidation, calm waters. Do not let the loud noise and sharp spikes affect your decisiveness.