Auction
Es for 21-22 Dec 2017, Volume analysisFor purchase
— impulse in 1 week, 1 day
— no additional sellers volumes in tue and Wed
— Wed was closed without sellers pressure
— 2681 - as a support + POC of WED and Tue is down
Complicates purchase
— restraining volumes on historical high 2696
— in 15 minutes 2672 was not repositioned up
— weekly POC is under resistance of this week 2696
Conclusion: 2680 - support on Wednesday without moving Weekly Poc down. Overnight volumes are empty + closing near 2681. But 1 week +1 day - impulse up, so on no additional sellings yestarday inside intraday trading market gets again under higher timeframe influence. To keep growth need to move weekly POC down on 2684 ( Tue and Wed volume core)
Task of the Thursday: fix 2684 as a support ( better with moving there weeklly POC) + realization after fixing the 2681 as a support to 2693 - 2697
Positive scenario: 2684 - fixed as a support and keep growing to 2697 - no reaction lower 2693 - may achieve 2704
Negative scenario: achieving 2693 early - sellings to 2484 and all day volatility in that range
Cancel purchase: big sellers presssure under 2693 - so market can't hold 2684 as a support - the next level will be 2677-2672
Key: check how market reacts on 2693 and what scenario will go further
buy aggressive 2684 buy conservatively 2693 take profit 2693-2697-2704 reversal priority 2681
2.Auction Bidirectional Trade IdeaWait for a voluminous breach of the purple triangle, and place shorts/longs in the same direction.
I provided a couple targets for both directions.
Small green arrows are 1.618 extensions of the big green arrows.
They nicely land into existing key support/resistance levels.
I prefer the upside as it would be a good point (in the context of the 2. auction) to break the long-term resistance diagonal (blue dashed line) and go into a new uptrend with new highs above 1k :]
Bitcoin 2 Weeks Forecast until the Silk Road Auction - Update 4Not a lot of volume the past few days leaves Bitcoin in a CONGESTION phase until June 27 to June 30 just fluctuating without any clear direction. TA cannot be very helpful in such a immature market but a forecast can still be done.
The congestion range is mainly between 582 to 621.
My opinion is:
(1) technically the chances of seeing 550 is unfortunately slimming down BUT we might still be able to drop to 550 around June 26-27 and quickly rebounce upwards.
(2) BUT another scenario (not pictured in the above chart and which is also VERY LIKELY to happen) would be not to see 550 and the market just moves UP PAST 621 to 635 after rumors of the last price paid for the auction are LEAKED and you have to expect for sure that the price will be ABOVE the CURRENT MARKET PRICE. There are a lot of big players bidding on those coins and this is a very bullish sign that newbie traders do not see since they trade with their emotions. Given that China has been bullish more than other regions would point to that scenario to be most likely to happen. Also the fact that the Silk Road news is on the news more and more will bring more new investors in the next few days and weeks which will fuel the next rally.