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Aud-cad

AUDCAD Close to change directionAlmost a month and a half ago, and the Australian dollar against the Canadian dollar is still on the rise. Will the trend change at the beginning of next week, or is there more rise for this pair? My point: It is an opportunity worth taking and risking (little risk) with a small contract and waiting two to three weeks. In your opinion, will the trend change in the coming days, or is there an opinion of the Australian dollar against the Canadian dollar? The four golden rules of trading 1 Don't be greedy 2 Always use stop loss 3 Never add other positions to the losing positions 4 Use a suitable lot for your account ❤️Please, support our work with like & comment!❤️
Short
by zaidhatem
AUD CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Ongoing issues with China’s economy remain a question mark for the AUD. But the continued rumours and speculation of a pivot away from Covid-zero policy has given Chinese equities, China-linked commodities and the Antipodean currencies a boost. The RBA took another 25bsp hike at their previous meeting, sparking some speculation that the bank could be finalizing their hiking cycle sooner than expected. But with Core Trimmed CPI >6.0% the hiking cycle is arguable not close to over just yet. In the week ahead, risk sentiment is always important, but the main driver to watch will be any further developments regarding the China’s potential reopening. We also have Wage and Jobs data, but both will take a back seat to China developments. Take note that positioning remains stretched short which could see outside upside reactions on good news. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Data showing China’s growth outlook is improving or surprise announcements of a reduction of strict Covid-zero policies could provide upside for the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers recovery in key export commodities (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China) should be supportive for the AUD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Data showing China’s growth outlook is deteriorating or strong push back from Chinese officials against speculation of a reopening could add additional pressure on the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers further weakness in key export commodities (additional China restrictions, demand destruction) could be negative for the AUD. BIGGER PICTURE The AUD’s outlook remains neutral but is largely dependent on China and whether key commodities like Iron Ore and Coal can stop their bleeding. Until the covid situation and property issues in China improves materially, and until commodities and China’s growth stabilizes, the AUD is best suited for short-term trades in line with strong short-term sentiment. However, the rumours of a potential move away from Covid-zero policy has been a key driver for the AUD. CAD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE Even though most recent jobs print offset all of the jobs that was lost in 2H22, the housing market still poses big risks for the Canadian economy. With a big increase in variable-rate mortgages after the pandemic, lots of consumers will be pressed on their disposable income after mortgages need to be reset (and that is happening while price pressures are still uncomfortably high). Furthermore, despite hawkish comments from Gov Macklem heading into the Oct meeting, the bank surprised markets with a 50bsp hike when markets were pricing in a 75bsp hike. The bank also stated there is increased risks of a recession during 1H23. As a result of this, as well as the fact that the CAD is still relatively close to its cycle high (at the index level), we have changed our bias for the CAD to weak bearish from Neutral. The CAD’s failure to gain any upside even after a slight re-acceleration in both headline and core CPI this week was a clear signal that our fundamental bearish bias for the CAD is correct and we’ll be looking for more short opportunities. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Catalysts that see upside in Oil (deteriorating supply outlook, ease in demand fears, OPEC developments) could trigger bullish CAD reactions. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CAD. A bid surprise miss in Wednesday’s CPI should seal the deal for a 25bsp hike and should put more pressure on the CAD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Catalysts that trigger downside in oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage, less supply constraints, OPEC developments) could be a negative catalyst for the CAD as well. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk offsentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CAD. A surprise beat in CPI this week could see markets lean towards a 50bsp and support CAD (but we’ll look to fade strength). BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the CAD has shifted to bearish. Given the clear risks to the growth outlook (recent negative econ data, high inflation, stress in the housing market, exposure to a slowing US economy) we think the bias is titled lower for the currency from here. Also, with the currency still relatively close to cycle peaks, and with the BoC close to terminal rate expectations, our preferred way of trading the CAD is lower on clear short-term negative catalysts.
by thunderpips
AUDCAD: Breaking out the major trend due to CPI data.Hey traders, Based on the recent CPI data we can understand that the market is calling for a pivot, soft CPI data tend to give us a bullish stock market and the AUDCAD pair along with NZDCAD is extremely correlated with indices, which means when we have bullish bias on indices we can consider AUD and NZD pairs longs, especially against USD and CAD and you can notice this correlation in current market. hence, in today's trading session we are monitoring AUDCAD for a buying opportunity around 0.876 zone. remember to respect proper risk management especially in this type of environment. 1% risk per trade will allow you to not get knocked from the market if you respect a proper RR too. feel free to leave your questions in the comment section.
Long
by JoeChampion
11
AUDCAD Rebounding with the 1D MA50 being the key to a break-out.The AUDCAD pair has on a 2 day rebound after the pull-back on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) rejection on October 27. This couldn't have validated better our previous analysis on September 20: As you see, the 1 year Lower Lows Zone is holding and as long as it does, the price should push for a new Lower High or at least a 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) test. Practically, we can only trade this based on how the 1D MA50 pivots. A 1D closing above the 1D MA50 would be a bullish break-out signal targeting the 1D MA200, while a further closing above it, would target the 1W MA300 (red trend-line) that had its most recent test on April 05. At the same time, the more the price fails to close above the 1D MA50, the stronger of a Sell Signal it becomes, targeting the 1 year Lower Lows Zone. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
by TradingShot
💵Australian Dollar/Canadian Dollar 💵 Analyze (Short term)!!! Australian Dollar/Canadian Dollar was able to make a Head and Shoulder Pattern on the resistance zone when it broke the trend line. I expect that the Australian Dollar/Canadian Dollar will go down at least to the support zone and target of the head and shoulder pattern. 🔅Australian Dollar/Canadian Dollar (AUDCAD) Timeframe 4H⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
4
AUDCAD LONGAUDCAD LONG Why are we entering? - Expecting AUD strength and CAD weakness - We in wave 5, and we are about to form subwave 4 which is a bullish correction which we are trying to catch - We are expecting rejection at our -0.618 fibonacci level which is also a structure level What is our confirmation? - Rejection of our -0.618 fibonacci level - Break of WFB trendline Entry 0.855 SAFE Entry: Rejection of -0.618 fibonacci level with a break of our WFB trendline RISK entry 1: Rejection of -0.618 fibonacci level RISK entry 2: Early break of WFB trendline Once entered, where will our Stoploss be? - Below the fibonacci level (below 0.852) 30 pips - Move SL to BE after running 30 pips Where do we take profits? - Secure profit multiple times along the way (30 pips, 60 pips, 120 pips, 200 pips) - First TP - -0.27 fibonacci level : 0.875 (200pips) - Final TP - Subwave 4 invalidation level : 0.891 (360pips)
Long
by Pips-Collector
AUDCAD LONGAUDCAD LONG Why are we entering? - Expecting AUD strength and CAD weakness - We in wave 5, and we are about to form subwave 4 which is a bullish correction which we are trying to catch - We are expecting rejection at our -0.618 fibonacci level which is also a structure level What is our confirmation? - Rejection of our -0.618 fibonacci level - Break of WFB trendline Entry 0.855 SAFE Entry: Rejection of -0.618 fibonacci level with a break of our WFB trendline RISK entry 1: Rejection of -0.618 fibonacci level RISK entry 2: Early break of WFB trendline Once entered, where will our Stoploss be? - Below the fibonacci level (below 0.852) 30 pips - Move SL to BE after running 30 pips Where do we take profits? - Secure profit multiple times along the way (30 pips, 60 pips, 120 pips, 200 pips) - First TP - -0.27 fibonacci level : 0.875 (200pips) - Final TP - Subwave 4 invalidation level : 0.891 (360pips)
Long
by Pips-Collector
AUDCAD - Rejection Zones!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst. AUDCAD is overall bearish trading inside the brown channel, however, it is now approaching the lower brown trendline acting as a non-horizontal support zone . Moreover, the zone 0.845 - 0.855 is a strong support zone. So the highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the blue support zone and lower brown trendline. (acting as non-horizontal support) As per my trading style: Since AUDCAD is around the purple circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) If the blue zone is broken downward, then further bearish movement would be expected. Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
Long
by TheSignalyst
3