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Aud-cad

AUDCAD potential for dip! | 25th Jan 2022Prices are on bearish momentum and abiding to a descending trendline. We see the potential for a dip from our sell entry at 0.90490 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement towards our Take Profit at 0.89805 which is a graphical swing low and in line with 100% Fibonacci extension. Prices are trading below our ichimoku cloud resistance and also MA and RSI is at a level where dips previously occurred, further supporting our bearish bias. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsRisk Tone – Safe-haven currencies (USD, CHF, JPY) rallied on Monday, while their high-beta counterparts (AUD, NZD, CAD, GBP) sold off as rising tensions between the West and Russia over Ukraine resulted in a risk-off wave which dominated price action. Indeed, Reuters reported that “NATO said it was putting forces on standby and reinforcing eastern Europe with more ships and fighter jets, and could also send additional troops to its south-east flank, in what Russia denounced as an escalation of tensions over Ukraine.”
TVC:DXY
by thunderpips
3
AUDCAD pullback before continuationAUDCAD has seen a significant decline since meeting the upper trendline resistance, as predicted in the previous idea shown below. Price has seen a pullback to an area of previous support but in my opinion we are still in a bearish wave and this small correction is an opportunity to get in before the wave continues down. We are already seeing rejection from this area, this is an opportunity to look for price action signals for a short position. On the chart is a conservative target but with a stop loss above this area of previous resistance around the 0.91600 mark, this would still represent approx 1.5 R trade. NOT financial advice, make your own trading decisions.
Short
by HayeTrading
30
AUD CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL 1. Monetary Policy In Dec the RBA kept rates at 0.10% and weekly bond purchases at A$4bln until mid-Feb, as expected. They reiterated their commitment to maintain highly supportive monetary conditions and won’t raise rates until actual inflation is sustainably within their 2%-3% target range. They noted that the economy is recovering from the Delta slowdown and is expected to return to pre-Delta path in 1H22. The positive take from the meeting was that the RBA did not think Omicron will derail the expected recovery and sounded more optimistic than markets anticipated. They also said they will consider the future of their QE program at the Feb meeting and outlined their criteria for that which includes actions of other central banks, bond market functioning and actual and expected progress towards the goals of full employment and inflation consistent with their target. All in all, the bank still had a dovish stance but was more optimistic about the economy than expected. Furthermore, out of the 3 criteria set by the bank, the first two is arguably a green light already, which means the only thing we are waiting for is incoming employment and inflation data to see whether it’s good enough to stop QE. 2. Idiosyncratic Drivers & Intermarket Analysis There are 4 key drivers we’re watching for Australia’s med-term outlook: The virus situation – so far, the RBA has been positive about a post-Delta recovery, but incoming employment and inflation data will be crucial to see whether that optimism is justified. China – Even though the PBoC has finally stepped up with new stimulus & some fiscal support is expected in 1H22, the Covid-Zero policy in China does pose a risk to their expected 2022 recovery so the recent rapid rise in cases is one to watch. Politically, the AUKUS defence pact could see possible retaliation from China against Australian goods and is always something to keep on the radar. Commodities – Iron Ore, (24% of exports) and Coal prices (18% of exports) are important for terms of trade, and with both pushing higher on PBoC easing, that is a positive for the AUD as long as they maintain their recent push higher. Global growth – as a risk proxy, the global economy is an important consideration for AUD, which means the expected slowdown in growth and inflation globally is an important point to consider, but if China can put in a solid year that should limit the fall out if the global economy slows faster than expected. 3. Global Risk Outlook As a high-beta currency, the AUD usually benefits from overall positive risk sentiment as well as environments that benefit pro-cyclical assets. Thus, both short-term (immediate) and med-term (underlying) risk sentiment will always be a key consideration for the AUD. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed positioning change of -2120 with a net non-commercial position of -91486. As outsized net-shorts are usually seen as a contrarian indicator we want to be mindful of potential squeezes higher for the AUD, which also means that the AUD is most likely going to be more sensitive to positive data compared to negative data because a lot of the bad news associated with the currency has arguably been priced in. The recent downside in equities have seen an additional increase in AUD net-shorts with the positioning hitting a new record low which means the risk to reward of chasing the AUD lower from here isn’t very attractive. 5. The Week Ahead The most important data point for the AUD in the week ahead is the upcoming employment data scheduled for Thursday. Recall that the RBA gave us three criteria they will be watching to determine the future of their asset purchase program, and with 2 of those 3 criteria arguable already confirmed, the only thing left is the economic data. Market consensus is looking for a much lower number in Dec (43.3K) compared to the massive surprise beat in Nov (366K) and expect the Unemployment Rate to drop to 4.5% from the prior of 4.6%. A solid beat in the data should see markets pricing in a higher probability that the RBA announces an end to their QE program at the Feb meeting and could see some of that very stretched net-short positioning seeing a bigger unwind. Alternatively, money markets have been very aggressive in their policy expectations for the RBA with 4 hikes priced by the end of the year, which means a much bigger than expected miss could see some of that pushed out to 2023 as a delayed end of QE means less optionality for the RBA later in the year. CAD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL 1. Monetary Policy In Dec the BoC left rates at 0.25% as expected and maintained forward guidance where it expects rates at current levels until the middle quarters of 2022. This disappointed some participants who were looking for the bank to announce that the output gap could be closed in 1Q22. On inflation , even though the bank still thinks it will ease from 2H22, they did drop ‘temporary’ when referring to price pressures, similar to the Fed’s removing the word ‘transitory’. The bank took a slightly bleaker view on growth, pointing to both the new Omicron variant and flooding in British Columbia as possibly drags on growth and something that could elevate supply chain issues. What disappointed markets a bit was that the bank said none of the recent developments warrants any further adjustments to normalization, which disappointed the bulls looking for a possible hawkish tilt. The bank noted that employment is back to pre-covid levels, and economic momentum in Q4 were solid, but the overall tone wasn’t enough to convince markets of a Jan hike at that time, but markets have since then continued to ramp up hike bets with money markets pricing in a >70% chance of a hike at the Jan meeting and pricing in close to 6 hikes for 2022. Keep in mind that the bank was already concerned about growth before the recent Omicron restrictions, which means the likelihood of them brining forward output gap projections seems unlikely and for that reason we think is setting up for a disappointment and possible repricing lower in money market expectations in the upcoming meetings. 2. Intermarket Analysis Considerations Oil’s massive post-covid recovery has been impressive, driven by three drivers: supply & demand (OPEC’s production cuts); improving global economic outlook and improving oil demand outlook, even though slightly pushed back by Delta concerns; higher for longer than expected inflation . Even though Oil has recovered a lot of its recent downside and have proven our caution wrong, we are still cautious going into the first two quarters. The drivers keeping us cautious is expectations of a more hawkish Fed, slowing growth and inflation , lower inflation expectations (due to the Fed) and a possible supply surplus in 1Q22. If our concerns do materialize into downside for oil prices it should put pressure on the CAD. There have however been shortterm drivers supporting Oil prices and has kept the CAD more supported than we would have expected. 3. Global Risk Outlook As a high-beta currency, the CAD usually benefits from overall positive risk sentiment as well as environments that benefit pro-cyclical assets. Thus, both short-term (immediate) and med-term (underlying) risk sentiment will always be a key consideration for the CAD. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +3649 with a net non-commercial position of -7376. Recent price action has seen the CAD take a very similar path compared to April and Oct 2021 where markets were way too aggressive to price in upside for the CAD only to see majority of it unwind. We think the CAD is setting up for a similar disappointment with money markets way too aggressive on rate expectations for 2022.
by thunderpips
10
AUDCAD on bearish momentum! | 19th Jan 2022Prices are on bearish momentum and abiding to our bearish trendline. We see the potential for a sell entry at 0.90698 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension towards our Take Profit at 0.89773 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci extension. Our bearish bias is further supported by prices trading below our Ichimoku cloud support and also Death Cross formed by our MA 50 & 200. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
AUDCAD Analysis I Bounce from DemandWelcome back! Here's an analysis of this pair! COMMENT BELOW and let us know your thoughts or questions! **Price is re-testing previous demand from Dec. 21 and now due for correction on the daily after impulse move to the downside. Potential tp target 9025 zone, respectively. We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support! Brian & Kenya Horton, BK Forex Academy
Long
by BKTradingAcademy
4
AUDCAD bearish continuation | 14th Jan 2022Price is abiding to the descending trendline resistance, signifying an overall bearish momentum. We can expect price to drop further from pivot level in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement towards potential take profit level in line with 127.2% Fibonacci projection and previous swing low. Our bearish bias is further supported by the stochastic indicator where the %K line is at the resistance level and Ichimoku cloud indicator acting as a resistance. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
AUDCAD should be continuing to go down..*************************************************************************************** Hello there! If you are keen to learn more on the technical setups,do visit my website at www.shadowingthebb.com ! If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏 And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁 Thank you! Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared. Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
Short
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
AUDCAD - A pitstop before further fall? In our previous idea we predicted a drop after bouncing off the upper channel line, which we've seen the beginnings of. AUDCAD still appears bearish, but we are entering a Demand Zone that could create a bounce or choppiness, which might give those who didn't get short the chance to do so at a better price, if they also believe that price is likely to head toward the bottom of the channel, in line with the overall bearish trend on the higher timeframes. Those already short may choose to take some profit off the table to reduce risk, with a plan to re-enter at a better price.
Short
by HayeTrading
22
💡Don't miss the great buy opportunity in AUDCADTrading suggestion: ". There is a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested support line (0.9204). . if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets." Technical analysis: . AUDCAD is in an uptrend, and the continuation of the uptrend is expected. . The price is above the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic support. . The RSI is at 70. Take Profits: TP1= @ 0.9248 TP2= @ 0.9273 TP3= @ 0.9301 TP4= @ 0.9331 TP5= @ 0.9351 SL= Break below S2 ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your support is very much 🙏 appreciated!❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader? Now, It's your turn! Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Long
by ForecastCity_World
4
💡Don't miss the great buy opportunity in AUDCADTrading suggestion: ". There is a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested support line (0.9204). . if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets." Technical analysis: . AUDCAD is in an uptrend, and the continuation of the uptrend is expected. . The price is above the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic support. . The RSI is at 69. Take Profits: TP1= @ 0.9248 TP2= @ 0.9273 TP3= @ 0.9301 TP4= @ 0.9331 TP5= @ 0.9351 SL= Break below S2 ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your support is very much 🙏 appreciated! ❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader ? Now, It's your turn ! Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Long
by ForecastCity
3
AUDCAD rejected at resistance and headed lower. Since it's multiyear high in Feb, AUDCAD created lower lows and lower highs in April and has continued bearish ever since with a string of consecutive lower highs and lower lows. We have 2 clearly defined and repeatedly respected trendlines headed lower, created a broadening descending channel. Price has has multiple attempts to break through this resistance since December 23rd and has failed, most recently with a tweezer top. Overall this looks like a great opportunity for a high R short with a stoploss above the trendline/tweezer high. This is not financial advice, you are responsible for your own trading decisions. *** LEAVE A LIKE AND FOLLOW IF YOU ENJOYED THE IDEA *** I will respond to any and all comments below
Short
by HayeTrading
AUDCAD bearish continuation | 29th Dec 2021Price is abiding to the descending trendline resistance on the daily, signifying a bearish momentum. We can expect price to drop from pivot level in line with previous swing highs and descending trendline resistance towards the take profit level in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci projection . Our bearish bias is further supported by the RSI indicator where it is abiding to the descending trendline resistance. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by FXCM
AUDCAD bearish continuation | 29th Dec 2021 Price is abiding to the descending trendline resistance on the daily, signifying a bearish momentum. We can expect price to drop from pivot level in line with previous swing highs and descending trendline resistance towards the take profit level in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is further supported by the RSI indicator where it is abiding to the descending trendline resistance. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
AUD CAD Short Idea AUDCAD has been in a decent uptrend for most of December, however, it has started to approach a key resistance level on the 4hr time frame. The key level mentioned is the 0.925 level which is the high of early November. The RSI indicators on the daily/4hr time frame show an overbought bias, coupled with the approach to the key level mentioned above leads me to think that the price will drop from here. The initial target of this trade is located at the 0.9175 area, following this then the next target lies at 0.9143. The stop-loss area for this trade is at the 0.93 level. A likely scenario that I'm looking for sells near to the 0.925 area.
Short
by Orion-Markets