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Aud-cad

AUDCAD bearish continuation | 17th Dec 2021Price is abiding to the descending trendline on the daily timeframe , signifying overall bearish momentum. We can expect price to push down further from the pivot level in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection towards take profit level in line with 127.2% Fibonacci projection and previous swing low. Our bearish bias is further supported by the stochastic indicator where the %K line dropped from the resistance level . Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by FXCM
2
AUDCAD bearish continuation | 17th Dec 2021 Price is abiding to the descending trendline on the daily timeframe, signifying overall bearish momentum. We can expect price to push down further from the pivot level in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection towards take profit level in line with 127.2% Fibonacci projection and previous swing low. Our bearish bias is further supported by the stochastic indicator where the %K line dropped from the resistance level. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
1
AUDCAD is on bearish momentum! | 14th Dec 2021Prices are on bearish momentum and abiding to our bearish trendline. We see potential for a dip from our sell entry at 0.91310 in line with 200% Fibonacci projection, 50% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards our Take Profit at 0.90741 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Technical indicators are showing bearish momentum. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
1
AUDCAD Bearish Continuation | 14th Dec 2021Price is abiding to the descending channel on the daily, signifying overall bearish momentum. We can expect price to drop from 1st Resistance in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement, 78.6% Fibonacci projection and graphical overlap resistance towards 1st Support in line with previous swing low and 100% Fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is further supported by a stochastic indicator where the%K line is at the resistance level. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
AUDCAD Sell ideaAUDCAD is currently trading around the 0.91 regions after it found support in early December at the 0.897 level. This has been an increase of the price of about 1.5%, but it has been unable to push past the resistance zone of 0.913. On the 4hr time frame, the RSI indicators are currently in overbought levels of 95.3 which indicates that the buying pressure may have faded at this level. The initial target of trade is at the 0.906 level, proceeding this is the support area of 0.897 support area.
Short
by Orion-Markets
AUD CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL 1. Monetary Policy The RBA’s Nov decision was hawkish in deed but dovish in word. The bank abandoned YCC as markets suspected as the bank didn’t defend their 3-year AGB target in the days leading into the meeting. They also abandoned their date-based forward guidance that said a lift off in rates would only be appropriate in 2024, by rather saying that conditions for a hike will take ‘some time’. However, Governor Lowe tried his best to sound as dovish as possible saying they are prepared to look through temporary spikes in inflation and that market pricing for a hike by 2022 is far away from where their outlook is and is highly unlikely. Even though not all market participants would agree, we think the outlook for growth, inflation, employment, and wages suggest a late 2022 hike could be possible, especially if the economy sees a solid bounce after covid. However, for now, the bank has stuck to an overall dovish tone. Given the importance of wages to their inflation outlook, keeping close track of incoming macro data for both will be important. 2. Economic & Health Developments There are 4 key drivers we are watching for Australia’s med-term outlook: The virus situation – with Q3’s contraction out of the way, markets are watching Q4 data looking for signs of a strong rebound. Any good news of reduced restrictions will be important. China – the slowdown in China is important as it’s Australia’s biggest export destination. Markets are watching to see whether the CCP or PBoC steps up with stimulus for the economy which will be seen as a positive for the AUD. Politically, the recent AUKUS defence pact could see retaliation from China against Australian goods. Commodities – Iron Ore, (24% of exports) continues its decline, and Coal prices (18% of exports) are down from YTD highs as well. This is negative for terms of trade and a risk to keep on the radar. Global growth – as a favourite risk proxy, and closely tied to China, the market’s current question about whether we see reflation in Q4 will be an important consideration for the AUD. 3. Global Risk Outlook As a high-beta currency, the AUD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the AUD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the AUD in the med-term, but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -16920 with a net non-commercial position of - 80185. With the recent risk off rout in markets the AUD has once again shifted to the highest held net-short among large specs and the 3rd largest net-short for leveraged funds. As outsized net-shorts are usually seen as a contrarian indicator we want to be mindful of potential squeezes, which means the AUD is likely to be more sensitive to positive data than negative data. 5. The Week Ahead The main calendar event for the AUD in the week ahead is Tuesday’s upcoming RBA meeting where markets are largely expecting the bank to stick to their overall dovish tone, especially with the recent Omicron variant giving the bank enough reasons to stick to a patient and accommodative stance. Also keep in mind that recent incoming data has been fairly mixed with better-than-expected Q3 GDP at -1.9% versus expectations of -2.7% and Retail Sales topping estimates at 4.9% versus expectations of 2.5% BUT the latest jobs data disappointed with the Employment Change revealing a surprise contraction and Unemployment jumping to 5.6% from 4.6%. So, no reason for the RBA to change much for the upcoming meeting. CAD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy At their Oct meeting the BoC surprised by putting an early end to QE purchases and updated forward guidance to suggest an earlier lift off in rates by projecting economic slack to be absorbed by the middle quarters of 2022. The initial reaction was bullish as one would expect but the biggest risk to further upside for the CAD from here is the fact that a lot of these positives that was confirmed by the BoC has already been reflected in both the CAD and rates markets over the past few weeks. The CAD has seen a similar run to the upside back in 1Q21 with the BoC’s hawkish tilt, and similarly to that we feel current prices for rates and the CAD already reflect a great deal of the positives. Thus, even though the med-term outlook remains tilted to the upside for the CAD, there is the risk of seeing some unwind of the recent upside and is something to be mindful of when making any medterm allocations to the upside in the CAD. Last week’s Oct CPI data was a good example of this where the currency saw outsized downside on an uninspiring print. It’s not that CPI was bad, it was broadly in line with expectations, but with all the positives already priced it would have taken a really exceptionally strong print to keep the CAD’s upside momentum going. Another interesting driver for the months ahead, which could put a break on the BoC’s hiking path, is the close to 350% debt to GDP for Canada, which will make it very painful if rates start rising and for some like HSBC means the hike cycle could be very short. 2. Intermarket Analysis Considerations Oil’s massive post-covid recovery has been impressive, driven by three drivers: supply & demand (OPEC’s production cuts); improving global economic outlook and improving oil demand outlook, even though slightly pushed back by Delta concerns; rising inflation expectations. Even though further gains for Oil will arguably prove to be an uphill battle, the bias remains higher in the medterm as long as current supportive factors and drivers remains intact. Oil prices rallied after the US’s SPR release failed to spark any meaningful follow through, but last week’s covid scare was enough to see WTI drop over 12% in the session. Thus, this week’s upcoming OPEC meeting will be very important, as any announcement to pause planned productions cuts could spark some additional upside again. 3. Global Risk Outlook As a high-beta currency, the CAD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the CAD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the CAD in the med-term, but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -10940 with a net non-commercial position of - 14075. A lot of the previous froth that was priced into the CAD just a few weeks ago has arguably been substantially reduced given the oil and Omicron related downside in risk assets over the past few sessions. That means buying opportunities is starting to look attractive again. 5. The Week Ahead The main calendar event for the CAD in the week ahead is Wednesday’s upcoming BoC meeting. At the meeting markets will be focused on whether the recent Omicron variant is of any major concern to the BoC and whether the bank is also growing more concerned about inflation like the Fed. With the overall economic outlook evolving broadly in line with the bank’s MPR, there is expectations that the bank could err on the hawkish side despite the Omicron concerns, which should be positive for the CAD. Attention will be placed on any comments regarding the output gap to see whether the bank sees the gap being closed earlier (possibly Q1) which would imply the bank is bringing forward hike projections.
by thunderpips
58
AUDCAD bearish continuation | 7th Dec 2021 Price is abiding to the descending channel, signifying bearish momentum. We can expect a drop from the pivot level in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection towards take profit level in line with 161.8% Fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is further supported by the price holding below the Ichimoku cloud. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
AUD CAD short idea AUDCAD has seen some solid movement to the upside this morning, with the price increasing by just under 0.4%. This movement happened when the price came down and reached a confluence zone where price has reacted too in the past. On the 4hr chart, the RSI levels are very overbought and have just crossed, indicating a drop-in price is likely. The initial target for this trade is at the zone mentioned above,0.9172 level, following that secondary profit targets is at the support zone of 0.91396.
Short
by Orion-Markets
AUDCAD short moving nicely along 🙌POW reversal strategy in use here for this trade. Trade details for current trade are shown on the chart. Working a straight forward 1:1 RR and looking for 39 pip move to hit target. We are working the 15M time frame on this strategy. We're looking for the green line which is take profit target. Little red arrow is entry point and purple line is stop loss. Previous trade can be seen on chart also for reference. As with every idea trade history and log can be seen at the foot of this trade idea too for full transparency. The report box tabs when pressed it shows all you need to know about the strategy performance. You as the viewer of this idea can also do that so go ahead and have a play. ------------------------------------------ I try and share as many ideas as I can as and when I have time. My trades are automated so I am not sat in front of a screen daily. Jumping on random trade ideas 'willy-nilly' on Trading View trying to find that one trade that you can retire from is not a sustainable way to trade. You might get lucky, but it will always end one way. ------------------------------------------ Please hit the 👍 LIKE button if you like my ideas🙏 Also follow my profile, then you will receive a notification whenever I post a trading idea - so you don't miss them. 🙌 No one likes missing out, do they? Also, see my 'related ideas' below to see more just like this. The stats for this pair are shown below too. Thank you. Darren
Short
by pow_removetheguesswork
1
AUDCAD can break the support? 🦐AUDCAD on the daily chart is testing for a 4th time a weekly support. The price is in a downtrend and tested the 0.382 Fib level after the last bearish impulse. According to Plancton's strategy if the market will break below and satisfy the ACADEMY conditions we will set a nice short order. ---- Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger
Short
by InkyGrip
4
AUDCAD sell has alerted 🔔📳POW reversal strategy in use here for this trade. Trade has just alerted and details are on the chart. We are working the 30M time frame on this strategy. We're looking for the green line which is take profit target. Little red arrow is entry point and purple line is stop loss. Previous trade can be seen on chart also. As with every idea trade history and log can be seen at the foot of this trade idea too for full transparency. The report box tabs when pressed show all you need to know about the strategy performance. You as the viewer of this idea can also do that so go ahead and have a play. ------------------------------------------ I try and share as many ideas as I can as and when I have time. My trades are automated so I am not sat in front of a screen daily. Jumping on random trade ideas 'willy-nilly' on Trading View trying to find that one trade that you can retire from is not a sustainable way to trade. You might get lucky, but it will always end one way. ------------------------------------------ Please hit the 👍 LIKE button if you like my ideas🙏 Also follow my profile, then you will receive a notification whenever I post a trading idea - so you don't miss them. 🙌 No one likes missing out, do they? Also, see my 'related ideas' below to see more just like this. The stats for this pair are shown below too. Thank you. Darren
Short
by pow_removetheguesswork
AUDCAD Long Entry AUDCAD has just had a -0.91% correction towards the support level of 0.914. When the price had done this previously the pair shot up by 0.97%. As the price fell towards this level there has been some buying activity, indicating that this support level has been respected. The RSI levels also comply with this long idea, as currently on the 4-hr time frame the price is extremely oversold. The target for this trade is at the recent high of 0.922, the stop loss area for this trade is just below the support level at 0.9113.
Long
by Orion-Markets