Macro - Market Barometer UpdateHi guys, I wanted to take a look at the EUR on a large time frame and I was surprised at what I found. I figure I would look at the other currencies and post my results.
Here is a look at Macro on the Market Barometer. Keep in mind that we are looking at very large time frames, but... the long term trend predictions tend to be very accurate. I broke down each currency:
The GBP is recovering from a massive sell-off. We are still below up trending resistance, but we could see mild strength over the long term because we broke above short term down trending resistance. However, another dip into weakness is more likely. Based on how currencies tend to trend. We usually see double tops and bottoms in extreme ranges on the longer time frames.
The CHF is coming off the bottom of a huge wedge. We should see continued strength over the long term until it reaches the top of the wedge.
The EUR is flirting with down trending resistance. If the EUR fails, we will see massive weakness over the long term. If the EUR holds above, we will see slow continued strength.
There are a few ways to read the JPY. My take: recently, the JPY had a massive sell-off, the last leg 'up' is a fib retracement and we are getting ready for another push down. The chart says that we are at the bottom of a wedge and headed up.
The NZD is stilling on 50 and I'm not totally sure where to draw support. While it's sitting near the 50 level, anything is possible from this area. No bias detected.
The USD is right smack in the middle of a huge wedge. No bias is detected.
The CAD is also right smack in the middle of a huge wedge. No bias is detected.
The CHF is coming off the bottom of a huge wedge. We should see continued strength over the long term until it reaches the top of the wedge.
Aud-chf
Bull Hugging The Bear It's a good bullish indication, when you see one very bearish day (2017-03-16) being "hugged" by bullish days. Hoping to see a clear bullish day tomorrow as well by the end of day, to get the well known 'Three Bullish Soldiers'. Much as I like word play, I do not blindly follow that indication, yet, adding macro economics and several others indicators, it shows a bullish sentiment.
Daily AUD CHF potential opportunity to go short Analyzing AUD CHF we see market seems to be incline to go short this time. TK crossover is turning over as well as if price goes on as it is once it close current candle we will break Kijun and also bear fractal giving us green light to enter in the market.
If we zoomed in H4 the line market at 0.76303 show us a possible fractal zone where we can look for price action as all signs shows bearishness.
CHF With Strong Consumer PriceAUDCHF has been screaming 'sell' for a while now, I've just waited for the catalyst which I think we just got today. CHF just came out with strong numbers on the consumer price index. Helping this setup to take off. We just passed 25EMA (not shown on this chart) and a cross over on a midterm stochastic (not on this chart). Cash is building up with weak buying volume. I trust this one to fall today or tomorrow. Because of the short distance to the next support level, I would not go in with a huge position, but rather with a minor to small amount.
AUD/CHF breaks above 20-DMA, good to long on dips AUD/CHF resumes upside, has failed to close below 50-DMA, currently at 0.7505, which is strong support on the downside.
Intraday bias higher, the pair has broken above 20-DMA at 0.7540.
Price action holds above daily cloud, RSI is above 50 levels and biased north, Stoch have bounced off from near oversold levels.
We see scope for test of trendline resistance at 0.7630, bullish invalidation only on close below 50-DMA.
Support levels - 0.7540 (20-DMA), 0.7505 (50-DMA), 0.7480 (cloud top)
Resistance levels - 0.7585 (session high), 0.7630 (trendline), 0.7660 (Oct 26 high)
Good to go long on dips around 0.7540/50, SL: 0.75, TP: 0.7585/ 0.76/ 0.7630
AUD/CHF ShortPrice rallyed nearly from the bottom of this 4h "range" almost to the top...now we also see a rsi divergence while price pushes higher
i will look for an short entry after we close under the small trendline to ride it down to the bottom of this last swing low....i look for adding a position after breaking this area to the downside too
Selling AUDCHF. Target - 0.7467On the M30 timeframe of AUDCHF double top patter was formed. The price has already crossed the Alligator lines and MA(50). Indicator oscillator AO is in a red zone which add strenght to this signal.
Trade specification:
Sell-Stop: 0.7547
Stop-Loss: 0.7587
Take-Profit: 0.7467
AUD/CHF fails to hold below 200-DMA, long break above 0.7414AUD/CHF fails to hold break below 200-DMA.
The pair is on track to test 1H 100-SMA at 0.7414.
Break above could see gains upto 20-DMA at 0.7506.
Support levels - 0.7375 (200-DMA), 0.7370 (1H 20-SMA), 0.7342 (Sept 30 low), 0.7245 (trendline)
Resistance levels - 0.7412 (5-DMA), 0.7414 (1H 100-SMA), 0.7462 (100-DMA), 0.75 (20-DMA)
Good to go long on breakout above 0.7414, SL: 0.7370, TP: 0.7470/ 0.7500
AUD/CHF slips below 100-DMA, good to go short on rallies AUD/CHF trades with a bearish bias. Momentum studies support downside.
The pair has broken below major trendline support at 0.7460 and 100-DMA at 0.7464.
Price holds above 0.74 handle which is minor support level. Break below finds next support at 0.7375 (200-DMA) and then 0.7280 levels.
Support levels - 0.7402 (session low), 0.7375 (200-DMA), 0.7342 (Sept 30 low)
Resistance levels - 0.7448 (5-DMA), 0.7464 (100-DMA), 0.75 (Dec 19 high)
Good to go short on rallies around 0.7450, SL: 0.75, TP: 0.74/0.7375/0.7345