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Aud-jpy

AUD/JPY Outlook (6 July 2022)Anticipating further AUDUSD weakness, this could take the AUDJPY lower as well. Despite general Yen weakness, the Yen has found some strength over the past trading sessions as markets increased concern over a global recession, which could have led to the increase in demand for the safe haven currency. The AUDJPY tested and rejected the 92.50 resistance level, confirming the likelihood for further downside. Look for price to trade lower towards next support of 91.00
Short
by JinDao_Tai
AUD/JPY Outlook (28 June 2022)AUDJPY has been sitting just below the 94.00 resistance level. This level has been held since April and more recently in June, acting as a support turned resistance level. In lined with the AUD/USD analysis and the expectation for AUD to break lower, look for the AUDJPY to be resisted at the resistance level to trade towards the 92.50 support level. Although further Yen weakness is anticipated, I think that weakness in the AUD might frontrun this move lower. To be extra safe, look for a clear rejection of the resistance before trading lower. If price climbs higher and breaks above the 94.00 resistance, the current short would not be valid. Instead look to short from the next resistance of 95.50
Short
by JinDao_Tai
AUDJPY 4hour Analysis June 19th, 2022AUDJPY Bullish idea Weekly Trend: Bullish Daily Trend: Bullish 4Hour Trend: Bullish Trade scenario 1: We are still overall bullish on AJ and we can identify our key zone around 93.000. As long as we are above 93.000 we are generally bullish. Look for strong rejection off 93.000 with clear characteristics of a bullish trend. Look to ride the trend and only enter long on higher lows near support levels. Trade scenario 2: For us to consider AJ bearish we would need to see a break below 93.000 with a lower high below.
Long
by ForexLeague
AUD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BULLISH BASELINE Despite a decent recovery from the start of the year, the AUD has struggled in the midst underlying negative risk sentiment, but the bigger short-term negative driver has been China’s covid struggles. China’s economy is always a key focus point for the AUD. While all major economies are expected to slow this year, China (which has been slowing for the past 18 months) is expected to recover (monetary and fiscal policy is at a big divergence between China and the rest of the world). This expected recovery in China has been a key positive driver for the AUD. As long as China’s recovery expectations remain alive, that should continue to support the Australian economy as it means further support for key commodity exports like Iron Ore, Coal and LNG . There was some news out this past week that China is looking to set up a centralized iron ore buyer to counter Australia’s dominance. Iron Ore has not taken this news well and will be an important one to watch as Iron Ore is Australia’s top export and 80% of it goes to China. The RBA finally woken up from their slumber and starting their hiking cycle fairly aggressively is also supportive for the AUD. The short-term problem to the current bullish bias for the AUD is the continued covid dilemma facing China right now. As long as the covid situation stays bleak, and China continues to lock down parts of the country due to their draconian covid-zero policy, the AUD might struggle to take advantage of the other positive drivers and makes it more sensitive to underlying risk. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Positive Covid developments in China (easing restrictions, more fiscal or monetary stimulus, or letting go of the covidzero policy) could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. With the RBA just getting started with their hiking cycle, there is scope for them to turn more aggressive, and any catalyst that triggers higher hike expectations (RBA speak, inflation and wage data) could trigger a bullish response from the AUD. Any catalyst that triggers further upside in Australia’s key commodity exports (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China, higher inflation fears) should be supportive for the AUD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Negative Covid developments in China (increasing restrictions or adding additional ones) could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk offsentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. Any catalyst that triggers downside in Australia’s key commodity exports (additional China restrictions, demand destruction fears, and additional news on recent centralized iron ore buyers) could be negative for the AUD. With the RBA just recently shifting policy and hitting the ground running on hikes, there is more room for them to get more aggressive, but of course any RBA speak or info in upcoming meetings that talks down aggressive hikes could still be a short-term negative for the AUD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the AUD remains positive for now, but that is largely dependent on what happens to China. The short-term covid issues have pushed back but not removed recovery expectations, but until the covid fog clears and the Chinese economy shows recovery signs, the AUD might struggle to maintain upside short-term momentum. JPY FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BEARISH BASELINE The Yen has seen a lot of depreciation this year driven by very negative fundamentals. Yield differentials has by far had the biggest negative impact. With other major central banks starting aggressive hiking cycles, it has lifted yields quite dramatically, which has seen yields like US10Y push considerably higher than 10-year Japanese yields capped at 0.25% by yield curve control. That means dovish monetary policy remains a key negative driver. Despite inflation starting to push higher in Japan, and despite the lessons from other central banks now struggling with inflation last seen since the 70’s, the bank has once again at their June meeting stayed stubbornly dovish keeping yields capped at 0.25%. At this stage the bank is playing a very dangerous game by allowing the JPY to weaken, further adding to inflationary risks. Their dovish persistence remains a negative for the JPY. Even though the JPY is considered a safe haven, the inflows has been more limited compared to other cycles. The main reason for that is that the bank’s current account surplus (a main reason for safe haven appeal) has deteriorated due to the rise in commodity prices. Japan imports over 90% of their energy commodities, so the continued rise in oil prices has added to the downside and eroded some of the classic safe haven appeal. The BoJ and MoF’s reluctance to intervene to stop the rapid depreciation in the JPY in recent weeks has been noticeable. As long as they just voice their dislike but fail to act, the market will keep testing them and shorting the JPY. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Monetary policy is stubbornly dovish. Any catalyst that triggers speculation that the BoJ could drop YCC or hike rates or both (big upside surprises in inflation) could trigger upside in JPY, which means Friday’s CPI print will be in focus. Catalysts that trigger meaningful corrections in US10Y (less hawkish Fed, faster deceleration in US CPI, faster deceleration in US growth) or meaningful bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bullish reactions from the JPY. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in key commodities like Oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage) could trigger bullish JPY reactions as well. Any intervention from the BoJ or MoF to stop JPY depreciation (buying the JPY or giving firm and clear lines in the sand for USDJPY) could offer decent reprieve for the JPY. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With yield differentials playing such a huge role for the JPY, any catalysts that push US10Y higher (more aggressive Fed, further acceleration in US CPI, better-than-expected US growth data) could trigger further bearish price action for the JPY. Any catalyst that creates further upside in oil prices (further supply concerns, geopolitical tensions) poses downside risks for Japan’s current account surplus and could trigger further bearish reactions in the JPY. Further reluctance from the BoJ and MoF to address the concerning depreciation in the JPY is a continued negative driver for the JPY to keep on the radar. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture remains bleak for the JPY, especially after the BoJ once again stuck to the same overly dovish script this past week. As long as US10Y gains ground and as long as the BoJ stays unnecessarily dovish and no push back is made against the JPY weakness from the BoJ or MoF, the bias remains lower. Take note that positioning has been stretched (tactically and CFTC) for some time, which means we don’t want to chase the JPY lower from here.
by thunderpips
1
AUDJPY 4hour Analysis June 12th, 2022AUDJPY Bullish idea Weekly Trend: Bullish Daily Trend: Bullish 4Hour Trend: Bullish Trade scenario 1: We are looking bullish on AJ and we are currently seeing a pullback to our 95.000 support zone. How price action reacts at this zone will determine where we look for trades next. Ideally, price action forms structure and continues higher. Look to enter long on conviction after a higher low is confirmed. Trade scenario 2: For us to consider AJ bearish on this timeframe we need to see a break of support at 95.000 with structure below.
Long
by ForexLeague
1
AudJpy ready for short!Hello Traders, here is the full analysis for the pair AudJpy , let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions. The ellipse could represent a possible zone with good risk/reward to accumulate short position. Please note that all the information and publications here are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations. What you will find here, are only views of a Cat passionate about Finance.
Short
by TheForexMethod
AUDJPY 4hour Analysis June 5th, 2022AUDJPY Neutral idea Weekly Trend: Bullish Daily Trend: Bullish 4Hour Trend: Bullish Trade scenario 1: All timeframes are back to bullish as we saw a massive rally last week all the way up to 95.000 resistance. From here we’re expecting some sort of reaction but we are far from any trade scenarios. For us to consider long scenarios further on AJ we need to see structure first. Look for a retrace and higher low formation above 92.850 support. Ideally we can retrace, spot some consolidation and catch a clear continuation from price action. Trade scenario 2: For us to consider AJ for shorts we need to see a strong bearish trend present itself. We will entertain short scenarios once we break below 92.850 and spot some structure in the form of a lower high below. Look to target lower toward key support levels.
by ForexLeague
AUD/JPY SHORTShorting opportunity for AUD/JPY/ Having hit a strong Monthly Resistance level, there can be an idea of a perfect shorting opportunity. After the news of the Home Loans MoM. being forecasted at -1% and actually being -7.3%, has seen a large push to the upside for all pairs against the AUD pair. This price is tremendously high and the if the the Monthly S/R, can hold its strong resistance, should lead to massive profits from shorting. Have seen a market move in consolidation on the 15minute chart, look for a strong touch of the Monthly S/R or Cross of the MA and VWAP. Happy Trading.
Short
by darge_fin
1
AUDJPY forming a bullish patternThis is an update of the AUDJPY pair on my previous sell signal upon the 1D RSI Resistance rejection, as illustrated below: With the price now recovered from the sub 88.000 level, the pair is waving a buy signal as it broke above both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. Since it started trading on this long-term Fibonacci Channel back in 2020, this break-out combination has only happened twice (see the circles) and on both cases after a short-term pull-back, the price rallied strongly. For example see late June 2021, where the price failed to break above the 1D MA50 and 0.618 Fib. Consider also the important of the 1D RSI Symmetrical Zone. The RSI is now exactly on the same level (flag symbol) that it was during those two break-outs I mentioned (mid November 2020 and early January 2022). This further suggests that we may be replicating currently that exact same bullish pattern. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
6
AUDJPY 4hour Analysis May 30th, 2022AUDJPY Bullish idea Weekly Trend: Bullish Daily Trend: Bearish 4Hour Trend: Bullish Trade scenario 1: AJ is looking newly bullish as we broke back above 91.000 resistance. From here we’re looking for new structure in the form of a higher low close to 91.000. Look to target higher toward 92.850 Trade scenario 2: For us to consider AJ bearish we need to break below 91.000 and form a lower high, new structure. Target lower toward relevant support levels
Long
by ForexLeague
AUDJPY: A Broken Bearish Flag Confirms Further Downtrend -INTRODUCTION- After reaching a new low at the 87.50 level last week, AUDJPY retraced and retested the 91.10 resistance level. The price tested 91.10 level twice before dropping down to break the bearish flag channel. As we forecasted in our previous AUDJPY analysis, we expected a bearish trend continuation after a retracement and that price could retest the previous low at 87.50 level. -TRADING PLAN- In the chart, we can see a clear bearish impulse breaking the bearish flag channel. This is a good sign, indicating the bear has gained control. Our plan is to enter sell positions after a retest of the broken neckline area. Sell limit: 90.300 1st target: 87.57 2nd target: Will let it run SL: 92.00 1:1.5 risk to reward ratio 1% risk If the price failed to retrace and reach our sell limit order, then no trade will be taken. We will come back with more good setups :) Check out our recent trading ideas below :)
Short
by NicoBeau_Capital
AUDJPY: A Bearish Flag Pattern Provides a Great Sell OpportunityAUDJPY has been moving in a short-term downtrend. Recently, it has arrived at a new low at the 87.50 level. From 87.50, the price formed a bearish flag channel, aiming to retest the previous support area of 91.50 ~92.00. From that price level, we will observe whether the price would consolidate and then fall to break the uptrend line. After a breakout, we will prepare our sell entries at the trendline to capture the retest.
Short
by NicoBeau_Capital