Aud-nzd
AUD NZD FALSE CONSOLIDATION BREAKOUTThis trade setup is taking advantage of the Bearish Trend on the Daily and 4 Hour Charts, the Tweezer Tops of the Daily Chart and the False Consolidation Breakout on the 4 hour. These are supporting a bearish move in favour of the NZD that is expected to provide gains towards the major support of 1.0418.
AUD/NZD Signal - AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence - 10 Aug 2021AUDNZD is trending to the downside prior to the AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence data, which shows Wesptac's analysis of the consumer market. Technically the pair is trending to the downside and has pulled back into resistance at the trendline, the 200 moving average, and the structure zone. We anticipate continued downside.
AUDNZD a move the next support 🦐AUDNZD on the daily chart after the test of it closes the week below the support at the 1.05500.
During next week, we will check the market open at the beginning of the new month and, according to Plancton's strategy we can open a nice short order to the next support level.
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Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
AUDNZDGreat risk reward set up in AUDNZD, Ratios are in line and we can look for AUDNZD to make a big move up, this is not going to be done in a week however, this is a swing style of trade and patience is key to hit your targets.
AUD/NZD:BEARISH TREND|PRICE ACTION|SHORT SETUP CONTINUATION 🔔Welcome back Traders, Investors, and Community!
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AUDNZD testing a weekly support 🦐AUDNZD on the 4h chart is testing a weekly support.
The price after the last bearish impulse retraced to the 0.618 Fibonacci level and according to Plancton's strategy if the market will break and close below we can set a nice short order.
-––
Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD:
It’s important to keep in mind that since the RBNZ meeting took place on Tuesday, we won’t see a lot of the upside in the currency we had this past week reflected in the CFTC data as yet. After the hawkish tilt by the bank as well as the solid beat in Q2 CPI data, expectations for hikes this year have risen substantially, and barring any major risk off tones we would expect a favourable environment for the NZD going into the August meeting.
For the CAD, the fact that we it was one of the biggest position unwinds makes a lot of sense, as it shared a similar fate with the other two biggest net long currencies among the majors (EUR and GBP). The bias for the CAD remains tilted to the upside, but with a lot of the positives already reflected in the price, it will take a lot more positive news to see more meaningful upside in the currency.
For the AUD, the virus situation is a negative driver to keep on the radar. Two of the largest cities in the country is already in snap-lockdowns, and further aggravation of the situation could develop into a key sentiment driver in the short-term, so definitely one to watch.
JPY, CHF & USD:
The JPY saw quite a sizeable lift in terms of positioning, with another big batch of short positions being dumped. The hefty increases in short-term positioning over the past few weeks was arguably driven by the fundamental outlook, partly driven by summer liquidity ramping up carry trade activity.
Thus, the currency is always going to be vulnerable to see some of that unwind, especially when we have bouts of risk off flows as we’ve seen occur over the past two weeks.
For the US Dollar, as the fundamental bias remains neutral and as we are well within the summer liquidity period, the main driver for the USD has been the incoming economic events as expected. This past week we had Fed Chair Powell’s testimony where his persistent dovish tone, despite rising inflation data, saw some minor downside in the greenback, but retail sales also saw some additional excitement.
This week will be a very quiet one for the Dollar in terms of events, so be on the lookout for Fed speak, and also keep track of the overall risk sentiment.
GBP:
Doves turning into hawks. This past week saw some very interesting comments coming out from the more dovish leaning members of the BoE, with BoE’s Saunders paving the way expectations that the bank could announce an early end to their QE program at their next meeting.
This saw decent upside in Sterling, as it confirmed the market’s ongoing expectations that the BoE will be reducing accommodative policy in the weeks ahead, but also due to the fact that these hawkish comments came from a dovish member of the bank.
This week we look to comments from BoE’s Haskel who is considered as the most dovish member of the bank. If he paints a similar picture to that of Saunders, the markets will arguably be quick to price in a tapering announcement for the upcoming meeting.
Keep in mind the upside in Sterling occurred at the latter part of the week which means the CFTC data does not reflect it. The big reduction in net-longs is in line with more unwind in the biggest net-long positions versus the US Dollar.
EUR:
Despite the big reductions we’ve seen in EUR net-long positioning, the currency remains the biggest net-long position versus the greenback among the majors. With the Dollar’s fundamental outlook turning more neutral, the outlook for the EUR remains tilted to the downside.
Majority of the upside in the EUR from expectations about a EU economic recovery going in Q3 was already reflected in the price before the recent FOMC meeting, which left the EUR exposed to lots of downside from a positioning point of view.
Even though the bias for the EUR remains weak bearish, the amount of one-sided price action post the June FOMC meeting has seen the currency lose a lot of ground, which means we do want to be mindful of some reprieve from some possible mean reversion.
This week we have the July policy meeting which was made more important by comments from ECB President Lagarde who stated that markets can expect updated forward guidance at the meeting in line with their new strategic framework, even though Friday sources pieces suggest otherwise.
*This report reflects the COT data updated until 13 July 2021.
💡Don't miss the great sell opportunity in AUDNZD
Trading suggestion:
". There is still a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested resistance line (1.0656).
if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets."
Technical analysis:
. AUDNZD is in a downtrend, and the continuation of the downtrend is expected.
. The price is below the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic resistance.
. The RSI is at 31.
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 1.0617
TP2= @ 1.0600
TP3= @ 1.0564
TP4= @ 1.0540
TP5= @ 1.0509
SL: Break Above R2
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AUDNZD LONGprice has broken the Flag pattern, and the next anticipation is going for a LONG.. to 1.08000
Today's Notable Sentiment ShiftsAntipodeans/Safe-Havens – AUD and NZD remained pressured throughout Thursday, while safe-havens CHF and JPY remained broadly well supported as a bout of global risk aversion hit equities and lowered bond yields.
Commenting on the risk-off tone, Forexxtra noted that “the risk-off theme is clear across all markets, especially in currencies with the strongest risk DNAs including the Aussie, Canadian dollar and the Kiwi. This feels very much as though this is a washout of positions which could have some real potential in a market which has already felt very thin this week.”
Forexxtra’s views were confirmed by Reuters, who noted there was a broad-based unwinding of risky positions by some hedge funds.
AUDNZD Facing bearish pressure | 1 July 2021AUDNZD holding below the descending trendline. Having broken below the recent graphical swing low, a further drop below 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.07266 towards long term 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.06818 could be possible. Technical indicators are showing room for further bearish momentum as well.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
AudNzd BuyIt's been a while trading by myself and getting better after every mistake.
I see AN going to 1.10 by the end of the year but as of now, I see it going to 1.0800.
It broke structure on the 4hr tf to the upside and on the m15.
BUY AUDNZDHello, my fellow traders hope you all are making some profits. We are here with our new analysis so that we can increase those profits for you. Let’s get into it.
As we can see, the price given a breakout and done its retest.
Let us know your views on this in the comment section. Thank you all.
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AUDNZD , waiting for direction... If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏
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AUDNZD approaching resistance | 17th June 2021AUDNZD is approaching sell entry, in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension, where we could see a reversal and downside towards Take Profit, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension and horizontal swing low support. MACD and moving average are showing signs of bearish pressure as well.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
AUDNZD bearish breakout | 15th June 2021AUDNZD has seen a bearish breakout below the ascending trendline support-turned-resistance and is now holding below the moving average resistance. We could see price reverse at Sell Entry, in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8%, 100% Fibonacci extension, and horizontal pullback resistance, and drop further towards Take profit, in line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
AUDNZD Sell Trade Idea (My View)Nice Short Opportunity Presenting Itself With AUDNZD ... I Am Little Hesitant Though Because of The Gap With This Pair (Not Sure Why Its Not Visible On TV), The Market Might Decide To Fill It Up Giving It Some Momentum To Push slightly Further UP. Anywho, Trend-wise, This A Perfect Sell Trade Today With The Probability of A Nice Steep Drop. SL $ TP Indicated on Chart...
NZD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSFundamental bias: Strong bullish
1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook.
As a high-beta currency, NZD has remained broadly well supported in times of risk-on and as the overall risk outlook and tolerance of the market has improved over recent months. With coronavirus vaccines programs now underway in many countries, we expect the months ahead to see a further gradual improvement in the overall risk outlook and global economic outlook.
2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ
Going into 2021, the monetary policy outlook for the RBNZ were positive after the bank pushed back against the need for negative rates, as well as a string of positive economic data points showed the impact from the pandemic was less severe on the NZ economy than previously anticipated. However, optimism has diminished in recent sessions as new legislation by New Zealand's government to cool its housing market is expected to provide the RBNZ with more time before being forced to normalize policy. Consequently, that saw market expectations for the timing of future rate hikes being pushed back. However, at their May policy meeting the bank confirmed the market’s expectations that they will follow in the BOC’s footsteps to signal a move away from ultra-easy monetary policy, by bringing forward rate hike expectations to as early as 2022. Recall that during their February policy meeting the uncertainty was high enough for the bank to provide no guidance on interest rates past March 2021, so for the bank to provide guidance for rates to rise next year and for further higher rates running into 2024 shows a very hawkish tilt as it was a material change in the bank’s optimism for the economy, both now and going forward. After the RBNZ’s shift we have upgraded our bias for the bank from BULLISH to STRONG BULLISH as we anticipate the shift to provide a favourable sentiment for the NZD in the short-term.
3. The country’s economic and health developments
With the new macroprudential policies put in place by the NZ government, it will be very important to keep close track of the virus situation in NZ as well as the incoming data. Due to the recent Macroprudential policies put in place by the NZ government our focus has turned to the incoming economic data as a guideline for whether the RBNZ will potentially move forward with tapering QE this year or not. This week’s upcoming quarterly GDP data will be in focus for the currency, especially after the surprising softer price action we’ve seen recently. For now, the fundamental bias remains intact and agree with ING investment bank that the recent underperformance in the currency is not warranted by the fundamentals which still point to strength ahead for the NZD.
AUDNZD Sell Hi All ,
Following on from our previous sell analysis on this pair , as you can see we banked over 150pips!. Now price have broken the trendline and retesting that trendline, which gives us an opportunity for a final sell entry .
Entry and Sl marked.
Many thanks
AUDNZD testing the trendline 🦐AUDNZD after the last impulse is testing the trendline below a minor resistance.
According to Plancton's strategy if the price will break above we will set a nice long order.
--––
Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
AUDNZD approaching buy entry | 7th June 2021AUDNZD is approaching buy entry, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement , 127.2% Fibonacci extension , ascending trendline support and horizontal swing low support. We could see a bounce from here and further rise up to reach take profit level, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension and horizontal swing high resistance. Price is also holding above moving average support, in line with our analysis.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
