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Aud-nzd

AUDNZD bearish breakout | 15th June 2021AUDNZD has seen a bearish breakout below the ascending trendline support-turned-resistance and is now holding below the moving average resistance. We could see price reverse at Sell Entry, in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8%, 100% Fibonacci extension, and horizontal pullback resistance, and drop further towards Take profit, in line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by FXCM
1
NZD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSFundamental bias: Strong bullish 1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, NZD has remained broadly well supported in times of risk-on and as the overall risk outlook and tolerance of the market has improved over recent months. With coronavirus vaccines programs now underway in many countries, we expect the months ahead to see a further gradual improvement in the overall risk outlook and global economic outlook. 2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ Going into 2021, the monetary policy outlook for the RBNZ were positive after the bank pushed back against the need for negative rates, as well as a string of positive economic data points showed the impact from the pandemic was less severe on the NZ economy than previously anticipated. However, optimism has diminished in recent sessions as new legislation by New Zealand's government to cool its housing market is expected to provide the RBNZ with more time before being forced to normalize policy. Consequently, that saw market expectations for the timing of future rate hikes being pushed back. However, at their May policy meeting the bank confirmed the market’s expectations that they will follow in the BOC’s footsteps to signal a move away from ultra-easy monetary policy, by bringing forward rate hike expectations to as early as 2022. Recall that during their February policy meeting the uncertainty was high enough for the bank to provide no guidance on interest rates past March 2021, so for the bank to provide guidance for rates to rise next year and for further higher rates running into 2024 shows a very hawkish tilt as it was a material change in the bank’s optimism for the economy, both now and going forward. After the RBNZ’s shift we have upgraded our bias for the bank from BULLISH to STRONG BULLISH as we anticipate the shift to provide a favourable sentiment for the NZD in the short-term. 3. The country’s economic and health developments With the new macroprudential policies put in place by the NZ government, it will be very important to keep close track of the virus situation in NZ as well as the incoming data. Due to the recent Macroprudential policies put in place by the NZ government our focus has turned to the incoming economic data as a guideline for whether the RBNZ will potentially move forward with tapering QE this year or not. This week’s upcoming quarterly GDP data will be in focus for the currency, especially after the surprising softer price action we’ve seen recently. For now, the fundamental bias remains intact and agree with ING investment bank that the recent underperformance in the currency is not warranted by the fundamentals which still point to strength ahead for the NZD.
by thunderpips
4
AUDNZD testing the trendline 🦐AUDNZD after the last impulse is testing the trendline below a minor resistance. According to Plancton's strategy if the price will break above we will set a nice long order. --–– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Long
by InkyGrip
2
AUDNZD approaching buy entry | 7th June 2021AUDNZD is approaching buy entry, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement , 127.2% Fibonacci extension , ascending trendline support and horizontal swing low support. We could see a bounce from here and further rise up to reach take profit level, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension and horizontal swing high resistance. Price is also holding above moving average support, in line with our analysis. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by FXCM
AUD NZD SELL (AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR - NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR)Rationale: *Last week the RBNZ made a material shift in their policy stance by providing forward guidance that they project a hike in the OCR to occur by September 2022. This was despite the fact that the bank still acknowledged that there is a long way to go for things like growth, inflation and the labour market and showed that the bank’s decision was not only due to the better-than-expected outlook but also part reaction function. The bank also dropped their prior comments which said that they were “prepared to lower the OCR if required”, which is a 180 degree turn from just three months ago where they didn’t have enough confidence to provide rate guidance past March 2021. *Contrast this to the RBA, which has opted to fall in line with the likes of the FED recently by choosing a more dovish stance on policy and especially forward guidance, by stating that they would only consider raising rates when they have met their goals and they only see those goals being met by 2024. Start contrast to that of the RBNZ. The RBA will also take longer to normalize compared to the RBNZ even if the economic data surprises because they have more easy policies currently in place that needs to be unwound first such as their Yield Curve Control. Furthermore, given their recent dovish inclinations, market participants are expecting them to announce an additional QE program. Trade Risks: *If the recent downside in commodity prices turn around and start pushing higher again that would benefit the AUD from a terms of trade point of view and could pose challenges for the pair. *Any major risk off flows across major asset classes (which is not inflation driven) can weigh on yields as bonds is also considered a safe haven, thus given the strange move lower in NZ10Y today that could create some further divergence in the yield spread to the upside. *Any bad news surrounding the virus situation in the NZ could also pose some downside in the NZD. *A surprise hawkish tilt from the RBA at their July meeting is arguably the biggest risk to further downside for the AUDNZD right now.
by thunderpips
7
AUDNZD testing the resistance 🦐AUDNZD after the test of the weekly trendline moved above to the resistance zone at the 1.07200 area. The price is now testing it and according to Plancton's strategy if the market will break above we will set a nice long order. --–– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Long
by InkyGrip
AUD on the rise after better GDP data!This is not a traditional type of trade we would normally take, swing trade that is, but with the much better than expected data out of Australia in Q1 of 2021, ofcourse the trade is supported with technical indications which we're about to list below. - 10 DAY EMA Price has moved above the 10 day ema, and is supported by higher lows leading to a rejection level, thus completing a pattern that would indicate a bullish break - PRICE ACTION As mentioned above, we see higher lows right now, which when supported with excellent fundamental data only increases the proability of a higher move on AUD vs the NZD As an overall we believe we should see gains on the AUD for the rest of the week, unless some negative data comes out the retail sales due tomorrow during the Asian session. Good luck trading!
Long
by PrimedGroup
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: No surprise for the CAD to see the biggest net long positioning change once again among the majors after the BOC’s recent hawkish tilt. The recent comments from the BOC about the CAD’s strength are a reason for us to pay attention to current levels in USDCAD. Arguably a lot of the positives for the CAD is already reflected in the price, and the market will want to see more and more positive surprises to justify further moves lower so keep that in mind. For the AUD, the focus in the week ahead will remain on commodities, more specifically Iron Ore. China has become uncomfortable about the rise in commodity prices and is stepping in to try and curb the rise. After solid moves in recent months for Iron Ore some pullback is to be expected, but will be an important negative consideration for the AUD. For the NZD, this week we do have the upcoming RBNZ policy meeting. Going into the meeting, markets are expecting an upgrade to the economic outlook from the bank, but most are of the opinion that it’s too soon for the bank to change policy direction, at least verbally (bond purchases has been slowing recently). If the bank does bring forward rate hike expectations like that of the BOC, which is a slim possibility, that could of course create some upside volatility for the NZD. JPY, CHF & USD: US 10-Year Yields and US Real Yields remain the biggest focus for the USD and the JPY. As the growth and inflation outlook remains positive for the US, the path of least resistance for yields remains titled higher which should keep the JPY lower apart from possible short-term risk off flows of course. For the USD, as we explained last week, the focus isn’t just on nominal bond yields but also on real yields, which has continued to remain very close to cycle lows as nominal yields have moved largely rangebound while inflation expectations have trended higher. Any change in real yields will be a very important consideration for the Dollar, as well as any further comments from FED members regarding tapering deliberations. GBP: The bullish bias for Sterling remains intact. The economic data last week (Jobs, CPI, Retail Sales and PMI’s) once again confirmed the market’s expectations of a faster and better-than-expected economic rebound in the UK. The wild card to track in the week ahead is the virus situation as new cases of the Indian variant has been a concern. PM Johnson has warned that the variant could pose a challenge to their reopening plans. For now, everything seems under control, but this is a development to keep close track of. EUR: Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. There are still issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency, but despite that the EUR has remained very well supported over the past few weeks as the Dollar has continued to lose favour and as market participants look towards a fast economic rebound once the vaccination efforts allow the EU to lift lockdown restrictions. If the EU can reach some of the targets it has set itself then we could well see a faster recovery playing out in the EU. However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials or compare the policy response between the US and UK or compare policy normalization expectations it seems the EU is still lagging behind the US and the UK. For that reason, we are staying patient with our med-term bearish view on the EUR for now and will wait for more information on the vaccine and data front before we change our mind.
by thunderpips
AUDNZD on a channel break ?🦐AUDNZD is moving in a descending channel. The price after a range move between 2 structures is approaching the upper descending channel. According to Plamcton's strategy if the price will break above we will set a nice long order, --–– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger. Leave a comment that is helpful or encouraging. Let's master the markets together
Long
by InkyGrip
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: No surprise for the CAD to see the biggest net long positioning change among the majors, moving into second place below the EUR. The fundamental outlook for the CAD remains intact after the BOC’s recent hawkish tilt. However, it seems like the BOC has taken notice of the rapid CAD appreciation and have fired a warning shot last week and given the markets an indication that USDCAD is approaching levels that could impact export competitiveness. Even though this doesn’t change the bullish outlook, it does pose a risk in the med-term. For the AUD, the focus in the week ahead will turn to jobs data but also the Iron Ore prices. After a stellar run to the upside, it seems that China has finally stepped in to try and cool down the meteoric rise by banning steelmakers in Tangshan City (14% of China’s steel production) from fabricating or spreading price-hike information. The move worked as Iron Ore prices took a tumble, but it’s worth noting that both Iron Ore and Copper saw some profit taking and overdue mean reversion earlier last week as well. With strong trends like these, seeing some pullback is to be expected, and as such they will be sensitive to potential bigger price reactions on news like this. For now, the med-term bias for the AUD remains intact, but this is something to keep in mind as a substantial correction in Iron Ore is expected to weigh on the Antipodean currency. JPY, CHF & USD: US 10-Year Yields and US Real Yields remain the biggest focus for the USD and the JPY. After the big beat in US CPI, we saw US10Y resume its med-term uptrend, and saw USDJPY push higher as well. As long as US10Y remains firm, we would expect that to put more upside downward pressure on JPY. As for the USD, a key focus point right now is real yields. A move higher in nominal 10-year yields will not be a lot of help for the reflation-battered Dollar if real yields continue to stay suppressed. GBP: The bullish bias for Sterling remains intact. Recent data has made it clear that the economic recovery is well underway, and markets are looking towards this week’s economic data to confirm that view. The wild card to track in the week ahead is the virus situation as new cases of the Indian variant has been a concern. PM Johnson warned on Friday that the variant could pose a challenge to their reopening plans. For now, everything seems under control, but this is a development to keep close track of. EUR: Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. There are still issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency, but despite that the EUR has remained very well supported over the past few weeks as the Dollar has continued to lose favour and as market participants look towards a fast economic rebound once the vaccination efforts allow the EU to lift lockdown restrictions. If the EU can reach some of the targets it has set itself then we could well see a faster recovery playing out in the EU. However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials or compare the policy response between the US and UK or compare policy normalization expectations it seems the EU is still lagging behind the US and the UK. For that reason, we are staying patient with our med-term bearish view on the EUR for now and will wait for more information on the vaccine and data front before we change our mind. *This report reflects the COT data updated until 11 May 2021.
by thunderpips
1