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Aud-nzd

AUDNZD has more room to dropThe AUDNZD pair followed exactly the pattern we presented on our previous analysis on September 23 and after completing a standard +4.70% rise on the blue Channel Up, it broke below it: The pattern that was our benchmark on this accurate projection was the January - July 2021 Megaphone. After a rebound on the 0.786 Fibonacci level, the price got sold-off to a new Low on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. That extension on today's pattern is just below 1.07000. Only a 1W MACD Bullish Cross can invalidate the selling. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
3
AudNzd more downside to come?Should be looking at shorting this pair **Find out more from my Tradingview Stream this week** *************************************************************************************** Hello there! If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏 And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁 Thank you! Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared. Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
Short
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
AUD/NZD - pullback over? 1.10 back in focusAustralian CPI beat expectations by a long mile yesterday, as did inflation for New Zealand in their most recent report. But the key difference between Australia and New Zealand for currency traders to be aware of is their central banks. The RBNZ have been far more aggressive than the RBA - with the latter dropping to 25bp rate increases and their rate remaining relatively low compared with their peers. And whilst the Aussie and Kiwi benefitted from a weaker dollar yesterday and AUD was given a 'bump' following Australia's inflation report, the fact remains that the RBA are not as hawkish as the RBNZ. We’ve seen the desired pullback into a resistance cluster (lower trendline, 20/50 EMA and 1.1191 low) and a bearish pinbar has formed to suggest a swing high is in place. The RSI(2) reached overbought on Tuesday before turning lower yesterday, which backs up the bias of a potential swing high. The 200-day EMA / support zone just below 1.10 is now in focus for bears - and AUD/NZD is likely to be a tempting swing trade short whilst prices remain beneath yesterday's high.
Short
by CityIndex
2
InvestMate|AUD/CAD Monday play🦘AUD/NZD Monday play 🦘The Australian currency has begun to weaken sharply against the New Zealand dollar over the past month. 🦘The extent of the weakening since the peak has already been over 4% 🦘Friday's session did not leave a dry eye on the pair either. 🦘The weakening of the Australian currency is probably dictated by the interest rate differential which in Australia is 2.6% and in New Zealand 3.5%, almost 1% more. 🦘In my opinion, looking at the dynamics of the movement and the closing of the candle at new lows 🦘It is very likely that we will continue the downward trend on this pair on Monday. 🦘Bearing in mind that we have already made a sizable correction bouncing off the 0.382 level of the last major upward wave. 🦘As far as I can see from the levels, the road to the cluster of levels 0.382 of the largest upward wave and 0.5 of the more recent upward wave and the outer measure of the largest correction in the current downtrend at 1.618 is wide open. 🦘The zone has been respected by the price many times in the past. 🦘But I would stress that this is a long-term perspective. 🦘A more local level I would look for in the outer range of the wave of the last upward correction at the level of 1.272 of this wave. 🦘This is the 1.098 level which is a round price level. 🦘 A move to this level opening positions at current prices would be as follows. 🦘Stop order slightly above the 0.786 level. Take profit at 1.0979 level. 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Short
by InvestMate
6
AUDNZD could see some rebound...A minor Rebound can be in place bias will be to short this pullback **Find out more from my Tradingview Stream this week** *************************************************************************************** Hello there! If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏 And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁 Thank you! Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared. Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
Short
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
3
AUDNZD - Massive Resistance Ahead!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst. AUDNZD is overall bullish however it is approaching a strong resistance in green. (1.135 - 1.140) As per my trading style: Since AUDNZD is sitting around a resistance zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...) Of course, unless the resistance is broken upward, in this case it would become support and further bullish movement would be expected. Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
Short
by TheSignalyst
3
AUDNZD Testing Resistance. How to trade a breakout or rejection.The AUDNZD pair has been on a strong structured uptrend since September 16 2021 market low, within a long-term Channel Up. Recently, the pattern turned into a Bullish Megaphone according to the 1W RSI and MACD indicators, much like the one that started on January 2021. The price is currently testing the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Megaphone. A break above it, should target the top of the Channel Up and complete the +4.70% rise that has been done the two times that the pair rebounded on the Channel's bottom. A rejection either now or at the top of the Channel Up should be bearish medium-term, targeting at least the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). A break below the Channel Up, establishes the Megaphone as the dominant pattern, and should test its bottom, along with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoyed this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant and support me and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
by TradingShot
AUD/NZD Outlook (7 September 2022)Since the AUDNZD fell through the 1.1178 support level, price had been trading in a horizontal range 1.1125 and 1.1178. Price could continue to trade between the price levels for now. Look for price to break the support level of 1.1125 to enter into the new range of 1.1081 and 1.1125. However, for the AUDNZD to drop lower, the AUDUSD would have to weaken further and/or the NZDUSD strengthen significantly. And in comparing the previous analysis, the AUDNZD trading lower would most likely depend on the AUDUSD to break below the key support level to trade lower.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
1
AUD NZD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Despite a decent recovery from the start of the year, the AUD gave back most of its 1Q22 gains throughout 2Q22 due to China’s continued struggles with Covid breakouts, and more recently the big slump in key commodities (Iron Ore & Coal). China’s economy is always a key focus for the AUD. While other major economies are expected to slow in 2022, China was expected to grow (with monetary and fiscal policy very stimulative), but we are yet to see the new additional stimulus measures spill over into the soft and hard data. The expected recovery, if it happens, remains a key consideration for the AUD. Our view in 1Q22 was that China’s expected recovery would be enough to keep commodities like Iron Ore supported even while other commodities push lower on global demand concerns, but the market proved us wrong on that assumption. The RBA stuck to a higher pace of tightening with a 50bsp hike in August, but it wasn’t enough to provide the AUD with upside as the bank mentioned their policy is not on a pre-determined path and also expressed growing concerns about consumers. While Iron Ore prices stays pressured and covid lockdowns in China persists, we maintain a neutral bias for the AUD. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Positive Covid developments in China (easing restrictions, more fiscal or monetary support, or stopping their covid-zero policy) could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. Any catalyst that triggers some recovery in Australia’s key commodity exports (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China, higher inflation fears) should be supportive for the AUD. With the RBA just getting started with their hiking cycle, there is scope for them to turn more aggressive, which means any overly hawkish comments or overly bullish CPI , or wage data could trigger some bullish reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Negative Covid developments in China (increasing restrictions or adding new ones) could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD and remains a course of concern. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. Any catalyst that triggers more downside in Australia’s key commodity exports (additional China restrictions, demand destruction fears, and additional news on recent centralized iron ore buyers) could be negative for the AUD. Concerns about consumers & growth means the RBA have been cautious to confirm STIR market expectations. If they ‘only’ hike by 50bsp without higher terminal rate forecasts we would expect the AUD to push lower out of the meeting. BIGGER PICTURE The outlook for the AUD is neutral for now, but that is largely dependent on what happens to China, whether key commodities like Iron Ore and Coal can stop their recent bleeding, and how long China struggles to recover their previously expected growth trajectory. Until the covid situation improves materially, and until commodities and China’s growth stabilizes, the AUD is best suited for short-term trades in line with strong short-term sentiment. Also keep in mind that the AUD is currently the most stretched among the other majors versus the US Dollar , so AUDUSD could be considered on any decent positive catalyst. With a 50bsp fully priced, without an overly hawkish RBA policy statement the AUD looks vulnerable to more downside. NZD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Despite the RBNZ being one of the most hawkish central banks from 2021, it hasn’t been enough to provide any meaningful trending support for the NZD. The cyclical concerns for the global economy, alongside concerns from China regarding their struggles with their covid-zero policy as well as recent big falls in commodity prices has kept the NZD pressured. Even though the RBNZ is expecting to keep their hiking cycle intact as they proved at their August meeting, some mild economic concerns have been starting to show up in the recent data, something they alluded to in their statement as well by noting medterm downside risks for the economy. Consumer and business confidence from the start of the year has confirmed this view. Furthermore, a big focus for the RBNZ’s aggressive policy (apart from high inflation of course) has been to try and calm down a very hot housing market, and even though the fall is small we have seen YY house prices starting to cool down. These developments on the growth side are not expected to stop the RBNZ’s hiking cycle just yet, but some market participants are expecting a more dovish tone reflecting these concerns and a push back in hike expectations in the months ahead. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Positive Covid developments in China (easing restrictions, more fiscal or monetary stimulus, or letting go of the covidzero policy) could trigger bullish reactions in the NZD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the NZD. Any catalyst that triggers some recovery in commodity markets (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China, higher inflation fears; lower growth concerns) should be supportive for the NZD. With a lot of tightening already priced for the RBNZ it would take a lot to surprise markets on the hawkish side, but with growing calls of a dovish pivot, reluctance from the RBNZ on that front could prove supportive in upcoming meetings. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Negative Covid developments in China (increasing restrictions or adding additional ones) could trigger bearish reactions in the NZD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the NZD. Any catalyst that triggers more downside in commodity markets (additional China restrictions, demand destruction fears, further growth concerns) could weigh on the NZD. Since a lot of policy tightening has been priced into STIR markets, any negative catalysts that triggers less hawkish RBNZ expectations (faster deceleration in growth or inflation) could trigger downside for the NZD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the NZD is neutral for now, but that is largely dependent on what happens to China as the New Zealand economy is also very dependent on trade with China and Australia, and also dependent on whether the RNBZ sticks to their hawkish tone or pivots more dovish in the meetings ahead. Given the RBNZ’s current outlook, we would favour short-term opportunities in the NZD in line with short-term sentiment as opposed to med-term positions.
by thunderpips
2