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AUD catches a breather as risk tone moderatesDespite the improvement in risk sentiment from Monday, it’s worth noting that significant concerns surrounding China’s coronavirus situation remain, keeping risks tilted to the downside. Nevertheless, the improved risk tone has provided a welcomed respite for the AUD, copping its recent decline with AUDUSD holding steady throughout the session above the 0.66 handle. Another beneficiary of the improved risk tone is NZD, which is receiving an additional boost from expectations for another aggressive rate hike from the RBNZ at its upcoming monetary policy meeting. Consensus looks for a 75 basis points rate hike from the central bank, taking the Official Cash Rate to 4.25%. Indeed, the RBNZ will be the next high impact risk event in the next Asia Pacific session. Before then, central banks will still remain a key theme and focus, with comments from a plethora of central bank members throughout today’s European and US sessions. Today’s speakers will include RBA Governor Lowe, Fed’s Mester, Fed’s George and Fed’s Bullard.
by thunderpips
7
AUDUSD Potential for Bullish Continuation | 22nd November 2022On the H4 chart, the overall bias for AUDUSD is bullish . Furthermore, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating that the market is bullish . We are looking for a buy at 0.65398, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be set at 0.64076, where the previous swing low is. I am looking to take profit at 0.67711, where the previous swing high is. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
1
AUDUSD Potential For Bearish ContinuationOn H4 chart, we have a bullish bias for AUDUSD with the price moving above the Ichimoku cloud. Looking for a pullback buy entry at 0.65473, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is located. Stop loss will be at 0.63864, where the previous swing low and 61.8% Fibonacci line is located. Take profit will be at 0.68842, slightly below where the previous swing high and 78.6% Fibonacci line are. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
AUDUSD Potential for Bullish Continuation | 21st November 2022On the H4 chart, the overall bias for AUDUSD is bullish . Furthermore, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating that the market is bullish . We are looking for a buy at 0.65398, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be set at 0.64076, where the previous swing low is. I am looking to take profit at 0.67711, where the previous swing high is. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
AUDUSD at a key support levelThe AUDUSD has continued its slide to the downside as the price approaches the near-term low of 0.6640. Look for continual strength of the DXY to weigh on the AUDUSD, bringing the price lower beyond the previous swing low (17th November) and 38.20% fib level. With no major news for the AUDUSD, if the price breaks beyond the current price level of 0.6640, the AUDUSD could fall significantly lower toward the next support level of 0.6520. Alternatively, if the price fails to break the support level, the AUDUSD could continue to range between 0.6640 and 0.68
Short
by JinDao_Tai
AUDUSD 4hour Analysis November 20th, 2022AUDUSD Bullish Idea Weekly Trend: Bearish Daily Trend: Bullish 4Hour Trend: Bullish Trade scenario 1: Overall we are still very bullish but price action has been consolidating near our 0.67000 resistance zone. Going into this week we want to identify structure before getting into a trade. Ideally we see price action retrace to 0.65500 and confirm a higher low. If this happens we can confidently enter long. Trade scenario 2: The other likely scenario is AU moving higher now without a more significant pullback. Look for higher lows above 0.67000.
Long
by ForexLeague
3
AUD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Ongoing issues with China’s economy remain a question mark for the AUD. But the continued rumours and speculation of a pivot away from Covid-zero policy has given Chinese equities, China-linked commodities and the Antipodean currencies a boost. The RBA took another 25bsp hike at their previous meeting, sparking some speculation that the bank could be finalizing their hiking cycle sooner than expected. But with Core Trimmed CPI >6.0% the hiking cycle is arguable not close to over just yet. In the week ahead, risk sentiment is always important, but the main driver to watch will be any further developments regarding the China’s potential reopening. We also have Wage and Jobs data, but both will take a back seat to China developments. Take note that positioning remains stretched short which could see outside upside reactions on good news. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Data showing China’s growth outlook is improving or surprise announcements of a reduction of strict Covid-zero policies could provide upside for the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers recovery in key export commodities (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China) should be supportive for the AUD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Data showing China’s growth outlook is deteriorating or strong push back from Chinese officials against speculation of a reopening could add additional pressure on the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers further weakness in key export commodities (additional China restrictions, demand destruction) could be negative for the AUD. BIGGER PICTURE The AUD’s outlook remains neutral but is largely dependent on China and whether key commodities like Iron Ore and Coal can stop their bleeding. Until the covid situation and property issues in China improves materially, and until commodities and China’s growth stabilizes, the AUD is best suited for short-term trades in line with strong short-term sentiment. However, the rumours of a potential move away from Covid-zero policy has been a key driver for the AUD. USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD and US yields while bad data is expected to pressure the USD and US yields). The Fed is still under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT, but last week’s decent deceleration in the OCT CPI report has given markets some solace from inflation angst. Money markets shed about 30bsp off the implied terminal rate. As a result of this the USD saw intense selling but has largely stabilized this week. Like we’ve said many times, right now is all about the data. The data will lead the Fed, which means the data is what we should follow for high probability short-term directional flows for the USD. In the week ahead, the only major data highlight is the S&P Global Flash PMIs and perhaps the FOMC meeting minutes. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced for the Fed and USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a >5.5% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressively hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. However, it’s also important to remember that the data leads the Fed. That means, even though the USD remains fundamentally bullish in the currency negative cyclical environment, it’s short-term direction will largely be determined by the incoming data. Thus, in the current context, we prefer trading the USD in the short-term with scalps out of key US economic data points.
by thunderpips
4
AUDUSD Potential For Bullish ContinuationOn H4 chart, we have a bullish bias for AUDUSD with the price moving above the Ichimoku cloud . Looking for a pullback buy entry at 0.65473, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is located. Stop loss will be at 0.63864, where the previous swing low and 61.8% Fibonacci line is located. Take profit will be at 0.68842, where the previous swing high and 78.6% Fibonacci line is. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
1
AUDUSD Potential for Bearish Momentum | 18th November 2022On the H4 chart, the overall bias for AUDUSD is bullish . Furthermore, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating that the market is bullish . However we are looking to play the pullback sell. Price has tapped into our sell entry at 0.67711, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 0.69161, where the previous swing high is located. Take profit will be at 0.65398, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
by Rockqet
AUDUSD Potential For Bullish ContinuationOn H4 chart, we have a bullish bias for AUDUSD with the price moving above the Ichimoku cloud. Looking for a pullback buy entry at 0.65473, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is located. Stop loss will be at 0.63864, where the previous swing low and 61.8% Fibonacci line is located. Take profit will be at 0.68842, where the previous swing high and 78.6% Fibonacci line is. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
1
AUDUSD Potential for Bearish Momentum | 17th November 2022On the H4 chart, the overall bias for AUDUSD is bullish . Furthermore, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating that the market is bullish . However we are looking to play the pullback sell. Price has tapped into our sell entry at 0.67711, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 0.69161, where the previous swing high is located. Take profit will be at 0.65398, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
AUDUSD H1: Bearish outlook seen, further downside below 0.67200On the H1 time frame, prices are testing the support zone at 0.67200, in line with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement where a break below this zone could provide the bearish acceleration with further downside seen to the next support target at 0.65500. This 0.6550 support zone lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Failure to break below the 0.67200 support zone could see prices push higher to test the resistance at 0.68000. Prices are holding below the Ichimoku cloud as well, supporting the bearish bias.
Short
by T3-Consultancy
AUDUSD Potential for Bearish Momentum | 16th November 2022On the H4 chart, the overall bias for AUDUSD is bullish . Furthermore, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating that the market is bullish . However we are looking to play the pullback sell. Looking for a sell entry at 0.67711, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 0.69161, where the previous swing high is located. Take profit will be at 0.65398, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
AUDUSD Potential For Bullish ContinuationThe overall bias for AUDUSD on the H4 chart is bullish. In addition, price has broken out of the descending trend line and is now above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Look for a pullback buy entry at 0.65473, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci line. The take profit point will be at 0.68842, which is the 78.6% Fibonacci line. The stop loss will be set at 0.63864, which is the previous swing low and the 61.8% Fibonacci line. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
2
AUDUSD Potential for Bullish Continuation | 15th November 2022On the H4 chart, the overall bias for AUDUSD is bullish. Furthermore, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating that the market is bullish. Look for a pullback buy entry at 0.65398, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci line. Stop loss will be set at 0.64076, just below the 61.8% Fibonacci line. Take profit will be at 0.67711, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
1
AUDUSD M30: Bearish outlook seen, further downside below 0.67150On the M30 time frame, prices are showing bearish order flow and facing bearish pressure from the resistance at 0.67150, in line with the graphical resistance zone and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. A pullback to the resistance zone at 0.67150 presents an opportunity to play the drop, with further downside seen to the support zone at 0.6630, which is the H4 demand zone. This 0.6630 support zone lines up with the graphical support and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Stochastic is testing resistance at 96.33 as well where we could see a reversal below this level, in line with prices.
Short
by T3-Consultancy
AUDUSD Potential For Bullish ContinuationOn the H4 chart, the overall bias for AUDUSD is bullish. To add confluence to this, price has broken out of the descending trend line and is above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish market. Looking for a pullback buy entry at 0.65473, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is located. Take profit will be at 0.68842, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is located. Stop loss will be set at 0.63864, where the previous swing low and 61.8% Fibonacci line is located. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
1
AUDUSD Potential for Bullish Continuation | 14th November 2022The overall bias for AUDUSD on the H4 chart is bullish . In addition, price is above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. Looking for a pullback buy entry at 0.65398, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is located. Stop loss will be at 0.64076, slightly below where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is located. Take profit will be at 0.69161, where the previous swing high and 78.6% Fibonacci line is located. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
1
Wouldn't it be nice if....As the DXY fell through the week, the AUDUSD continued to rise to reach the round number and key resistance of 0.67 on Friday. With no major news events on the horizon for the AUD, the price is likely to continue trading higher, especially if the DXY continues to weaken. It is most likely that the price could trade beyond the 0.67 resistance level to signal a continuation of the uptrend, with the next key resistance level at 0.69. However, wouldn't it be nice if the AUDUSD could retrace from here? If the DXY recovers, the AUDUSD turning from the 0.67 resistance level toward the support level of 0.6540 could be a great R:R and countertrend trade.
Short
by JinDao_Tai