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Aud-usd

InvestMate|AUD/USD No time for growth to continue🦘🦘AUD/USD No time for growth to continue. 🦘 Once again I have to write this. After I predicted rises on AUD/USD with a slight slip the link to the post below, all based on the fundamentals I wrote about in my previous post on the dollar: 🦘This time it was time for a corrective scenario. 🦘I will describe each technical tool I used in turn. 🦘1. I determined an uptrend channel from the bottom We can see that it was respected with scalpel precision. 🦘2. I then measured the fibo waves from the bottom to the current peak, these were also clearly respected, will they also be so respected on correction? 🦘3. I measured the largest downward correction and determined the 1:1 level of equality of this correction. 🦘4. I determined a support zone based on the cluster of the 0.5 level of the upward wave and the 1:1 correction. 🦘5. I determined a resistance zone at current levels based on previous support and the fact that we have broken out of the upward channel. 🦘The scenario I am playing out is a correction to the area of support after which I expect the upside to continue, I don't think we could continue the current upside with bearish sentiment still prevailing. 🦘*Please do not suggest the path I have drawn with the lines this is only a hypothetical scenario for further increases. 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Short
by InvestMate
AUDUSD - Trend-Following Sell Setup!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst. AUDUSD is still overall bearish from a long-term perspective trading inside the brown channel, and it is currently retesting the upper brown trendline. Moreover, the zone 0.675 - 0.685 is a strong resistance zone . So the highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the green resistance zone and upper brown trendline. (acting as non-horizontal resistance) As per my trading style: Since AUDUSD is approaching the purple circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...) and of course, as it retests the blue support, I will be looking for buy setups. Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
1
AUDUSD Potential for Bullish Continuation | 11th November 2022The overall bias for AUDUSD on the H4 chart is bullish . In addition, price is above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. Looking for a pullback buy entry at 0.64893, which is where the 23.6% Fibonacci line and 61.8% Fibonacci projection line intersect. The stop loss will be set at 0.63864, where the previous low and 61.8% Fibonacci line are located. The take profit will be set at 0.67249 where the -61.8% fibonacci expansion line is located. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
7
Risk Off Dominates as concerns over China’s latest outbreak riseThe risk off tone dominated price action as growing concerns over China’s latest coronavirus outbreak remained in focus, keeping the antipodeans pressured while supporting safe havens. Alongside the risk off tone, AUD was further pressured by comments from RBA Deputy Governor Bullock, who stated that although rates would rise further, they are nearing the point where they could “sit and wait” for a while. Given the above, AUDUSD briefly slipped below the 0.64 handle, while AUDJPY fell below the 94.00 handle, and EURAUD reclaimed the 1.56 handle. Looking ahead, today’s main event will be US CPI in the upcoming US session. However, there are also central bank speakers scheduled throughout the day, including BoE’s Ramsden and Tenreyro, Fed’s Mester and George, and BoC Governor Macklem.
by thunderpips
1
AUDUSD Potential for Bullish Continuation | 10th November 2022The overall bias for AUDUSD on the H4 chart is bullish. In addition, price is above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Look for a pullback buy entry at 0.63869, which is where the 61.8% and 38.2% Fibonacci lines intersect. The stop loss will be set at 0.63310, just below the 78.6% and 50% Fibonacci lines. The take profit will be set at 0.65225 where the previous high is. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
AUD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Ongoing issues with China’s economy remain a question mark for the AUD. As long as China’s potential for recovery remains uncertain, the path for the AUD remains the same. The RBA took another 25bsp hike at their previous meeting, sparking some speculation that the bank could be finalizing their hiking cycle sooner than expected. But with Core Trimmed CPI >6.0% the hiking cycle is arguable not close to over just yet. For the week ahead, overall risk sensitivity needs to be kept in mind for the AUD, as well as any further developments regarding the recent rumours and speculation of a potential China reopening. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Data showing China’s growth outlook is improving or surprise announcement at the CCP congress that Covid-zero will end could provide upside for the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers recovery in key export commodities (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China) should be supportive for the AUD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Data showing China’s growth outlook is deteriorating or strong affirmation that the covid-zero policy is here to stay could add additional pressure on the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers further weakness in key export commodities (additional China restrictions, demand destruction) could be negative for the AUD. BIGGER PICTURE The AUD’s outlook remains neutral but is largely dependent on China and whether key commodities like Iron Ore and Coal can stop their bleeding. Until the covid situation and property issues in China improves materially, and until commodities and China’s growth stabilizes, the AUD is best suited for short-term trades in line with strong short-term sentiment. For the week ahead the main highlight will be the US CPI report which can have a big impact across major asset classes. Apart from that, overall risk sentiment and any additional developments on China’s side with regards to potential reopening will be important to watch. USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE With headline CPI above 8% and Core CPI seeing another acceleration in the SEP CPI data, the Fed is under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT. At the NOV FOMC presser, Fed Chair Powell shattered any big hopes of a pivot and warned that their SEP expectations for the terminal rate will have to be revised higher. The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD and US yields while bad data is expected to pressure the USD and US yields). The past week was a choppy one for the USD, with upside seen after the more hawkish Fed presser, but a unexpected and punchy move lower after Friday’s mixed NFP jobs report. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced for the Fed and USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a >5.5% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressively hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. The data dependent stance from the Fed means that short-term data surprises can pull the USD either way and would be our preferred way of trading the Dollar right now. The week ahead will give us the most recent US CPI data which will be the biggest focus for markets, and we also have UoM Consumer Sentiment to watch. The price action in the USD following Friday’s NFP was interesting, but not something to use with any real conviction to trade into the week ahead. Waiting for CPI and UoM Consumer Sentiment seems like the safest way to approach the USD in the week ahead.
by thunderpips
AUDUSD Potential for Bullish Continuation | 9th November 2022On the H4 chart, the overall bias for AUDUSD is bullish . To add confluence to this, price is above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish market. Looking for a pullback buy entry at 0.63869, where the 61.8% and 38.2% Fibonacci lines are located. Stop loss will be set at 0.63310, slightly below where the 78.6% and 50% Fibonacci lines are located. Take profit will be set at 0.65225, where the previous high is. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
5
AUD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Ongoing issues with China’s economy remain a question mark for the AUD. As long as China’s potential for recovery remains uncertain, the path for the AUD remains the same. The RBA took another 25bsp hike at their previous meeting, sparking some speculation that the bank could be finalizing their hiking cycle sooner than expected. But with Core Trimmed CPI >6.0% the hiking cycle is arguable not close to over just yet. For the week ahead, overall risk sensitivity needs to be kept in mind for the AUD, as well as any further developments regarding the recent rumours and speculation of a potential China reopening. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Data showing China’s growth outlook is improving or surprise announcement at the CCP congress that Covid-zero will end could provide upside for the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers recovery in key export commodities (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China) should be supportive for the AUD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Data showing China’s growth outlook is deteriorating or strong affirmation that the covid-zero policy is here to stay could add additional pressure on the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers further weakness in key export commodities (additional China restrictions, demand destruction) could be negative for the AUD. BIGGER PICTURE The AUD’s outlook remains neutral but is largely dependent on China and whether key commodities like Iron Ore and Coal can stop their bleeding. Until the covid situation and property issues in China improves materially, and until commodities and China’s growth stabilizes, the AUD is best suited for short-term trades in line with strong short-term sentiment. For the week ahead the main highlight will be the US CPI report which can have a big impact across major asset classes. Apart from that, overall risk sentiment and any additional developments on China’s side with regards to potential reopening will be important to watch. USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE With headline CPI above 8% and Core CPI seeing another acceleration in the SEP CPI data, the Fed is under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT. At the NOV FOMC presser, Fed Chair Powell shattered any big hopes of a pivot and warned that their SEP expectations for the terminal rate will have to be revised higher. The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD and US yields while bad data is expected to pressure the USD and US yields). The past week was a choppy one for the USD, with upside seen after the more hawkish Fed presser, but a unexpected and punchy move lower after Friday’s mixed NFP jobs report. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced for the Fed and USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a >5.5% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressively hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. The data dependent stance from the Fed means that short-term data surprises can pull the USD either way and would be our preferred way of trading the Dollar right now. The week ahead will give us the most recent US CPI data which will be the biggest focus for markets, and we also have UoM Consumer Sentiment to watch. The price action in the USD following Friday’s NFP was interesting, but not something to use with any real conviction to trade into the week ahead. Waiting for CPI and UoM Consumer Sentiment seems like the safest way to approach the USD in the week ahead.
by thunderpips
2
Selling AUDUSD at market.AUDUSD - Intraday - We look to Sell at 0.6478 (stop at 0.6527) There is no sign that this bullish momentum is faltering but the pair has stalled close to a previous swing high of 0.6492. We are trading at overbought extremes. Price action looks to be forming a top. Further downside is expected although we prefer to sell into rallies close to the 0.6470 level. Our profit targets will be 0.6330 and 0.6170 Resistance: 0.6650 / 0.6910 / 0.7135 Support: 0.6400 / 0.6170 / 0.6000 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Short
by OANDA
1
AUDUSD Potential for Bullish Momentum | 8th November 2022On the H4 chart, the overall bias for AUDUSD is bullish. To add confluence to this, price is above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish market. Looking for a pullback buy entry at 0.63982, where the 50% and 38.2% Fibonacci lines are located. Stop loss will be set at 0.63299, where the 23.6% and 50% Fibonacci lines are located. Take profit will be set at 0.65257, where the previous high and 100% Fibonacci line lies. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
AUD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Ongoing issues with China’s economy remain a question mark for the AUD. As long as China’s potential for recovery remains uncertain, the path for the AUD remains the same. The RBA took another 25bsp hike at their previous meeting, sparking some speculation that the bank could be finalizing their hiking cycle sooner than expected. But with Core Trimmed CPI >6.0% the hiking cycle is arguable not close to over just yet. For the week ahead, overall risk sensitivity needs to be kept in mind for the AUD, as well as any further developments regarding the recent rumours and speculation of a potential China reopening. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Data showing China’s growth outlook is improving or surprise announcement at the CCP congress that Covid-zero will end could provide upside for the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers recovery in key export commodities (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China) should be supportive for the AUD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Data showing China’s growth outlook is deteriorating or strong affirmation that the covid-zero policy is here to stay could add additional pressure on the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers further weakness in key export commodities (additional China restrictions, demand destruction) could be negative for the AUD. BIGGER PICTURE The AUD’s outlook remains neutral but is largely dependent on China and whether key commodities like Iron Ore and Coal can stop their bleeding. Until the covid situation and property issues in China improves materially, and until commodities and China’s growth stabilizes, the AUD is best suited for short-term trades in line with strong short-term sentiment. For the week ahead the main highlight will be the US CPI report which can have a big impact across major asset classes. Apart from that, overall risk sentiment and any additional developments on China’s side with regards to potential reopening will be important to watch. USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE With headline CPI above 8% and Core CPI seeing another acceleration in the SEP CPI data, the Fed is under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT. At the NOV FOMC presser, Fed Chair Powell shattered any big hopes of a pivot and warned that their SEP expectations for the terminal rate will have to be revised higher. The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD and US yields while bad data is expected to pressure the USD and US yields). The past week was a choppy one for the USD, with upside seen after the more hawkish Fed presser, but a unexpected and punchy move lower after Friday’s mixed NFP jobs report. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced for the Fed and USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a >5.5% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressively hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. The data dependent stance from the Fed means that short-term data surprises can pull the USD either way and would be our preferred way of trading the Dollar right now. The week ahead will give us the most recent US CPI data which will be the biggest focus for markets, and we also have UoM Consumer Sentiment to watch. The price action in the USD following Friday’s NFP was interesting, but not something to use with any real conviction to trade into the week ahead. Waiting for CPI and UoM Consumer Sentiment seems like the safest way to approach the USD in the week ahead.
by thunderpips
1
AUDUSD 4hour Analysis November 6th, 2022AUDUSD Beaish Idea Weekly Trend: Bearish Daily Trend: Bearish 4Hour Trend: Bearish Trade scenario 1: We have experienced some high volume last week which leaves us with a difficult chart to read this week. Looking at the chart we can see that overall we’re bearish until we see some structure above 0.65500 as that is where the last 4hour high plummeted from. Ideally, we can spot a nice reversal from this high and look to enter on lower highs below support levels. Trade scenario 2: If we are to consider AU bullish again we would need to see this bullish volume from last week continue and push AU above 0.65500. If this happens we can look for structure forming higher lows and comfortably enter long.
Short
by ForexLeague
1
AUDUSD for this week As the DXY weaken on Friday, reversing the gains through the week, the AUDUSD bounced strongly from the support level of 0.6277. In fact, the price rose very strongly to reach 0.6468, just below the 0.65 swing high level reached on 27th October. The AUDUSD is likely to continue climbing toward the 0.6550 price level and slightly beyond, especially if the DXY continues to weaken. However, with the anticipation that the DXY could strengthen later into the week, which could break about the reversal on the AUDUSD.
Long
by JinDao_Tai