AUD/USD:SELL From Pullback Flag Pattern for a SHORT SetupAUD/USD in the last hours after our Target on the Bat Pattern, the price is trying to recover value but, as you can see from our technical analysis, the price is still in a strong downtrend where the Dynamic trendline pushes the price down every time there is a trying for the price to grow. We have recognized a Bearish Flag pattern where the price has already broken the support of this one, our Idea is about a retest of the previous level on 0.63750 with a pullback in the direction of the main trend. If the price will grow over 0.6550 then a possible change in the trend will activate our alternative scenario.
Aud-usd
AUDUSD Potential for Bearish MomentumOn the H4 chart, as the price is breaking the ascending trendline and below ichimoku cloud , we have a bearish bias that the price may drop form the sell entry at 0.63496, which is in line with the 23.6% fibonacci resistance and overlap support to the take profit at 0.61699, where the swing low is. Alternatively, the price may rise to the 1st resistance at 0.64329, which is in line with the 61.8% fibonacci retracement .
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
AUDUSD Potential for Bearish Momentum | 4th November 2022On the H4, with the price crossing the ichimoku cloud and breaking ascending trendline, we can expect the price drop from the sell entry at 0.63351, which is in line with the overlap resistance and 23.6% fibonacci retracement to the take profit at 0.61921, where the swing low is. Alternatively, the price may rise to the stop loss at 0.64252, where the 61.8% fibonacci retracement is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
AUD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL
BASELINE
Ongoing issues with China’s economy remain a question mark for the AUD. As long as China’s potential for recovery remains uncertain, the path for the AUD remains the same. The RBA surprised this past week with a 25bsp hike, sparking some speculation that the bank could be finalizing their hiking cycle sooner than expected (STIR markets priced out close to 75bsp from the terminal rate after the decision). As always risk sensitivity needs to be kept in mind for the AUD, and that means Q3 earnings season needs to be kept on the radar this incoming week. The RBA meeting will also be in focus after the sold quarterly CPI print we had this past week.
POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES
Data showing China’s growth outlook is improving or surprise announcement at the CCP congress that Covid-zero will end could provide upside for the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers recovery in key export commodities (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China) should be supportive for the AUD. The RBA caught markets by surprise with their 25bsp hike this past week. If the bank surprises with a 50bsp due to the strong QQ CPI it would be supportive for the AUD.
POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES
Data showing China’s growth outlook is deteriorating or strong affirmation that the covid-zero policy is here to stay could add additional pressure on the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers further weakness in key export commodities (additional China restrictions, demand destruction) could be negative for the AUD. The RBA caught markets by surprise with their 25bsp hike this past week. With some participants expecting a 50bsp hike after the QQ CPI, another 25bsp hike could pressure the AUD.
BIGGER PICTURE
The AUD’s outlook remains neutral but is largely dependent on China and whether key commodities like Iron Ore and Coal can stop their bleeding. Until the covid situation and property issues in China improves materially, and until commodities and China’s growth stabilizes, the AUD is best suited for short-term trades in line with strong short-term sentiment. For the week ahead the focus will be on the RBA where markets want to see whether the RBA will be swayed by solid QQ CPI to hike by 50bsp. Our baseline expectation is that the bank will stick to a 25bsp, which could see downside for the AUD since a few market participants have changed their view to expect a 50bsp from the bank.
USD
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH
BASELINE
With headline CPI above 8% and Core CPI seeing another acceleration in the SEP CPI data, the Fed is under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT. Markets expect another 75bsp hike in NOV and currently prices the terminal rate at 4.89%. The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction with incoming data for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD while bad data is expected to pressure the USD). Our expectation for a softer USD this past week played to our advantage with a punchy move lower in the Dollar. The week ahead is filled with lots of US economic data and the FOMC policy decision which will all be important drivers for the USD.
POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES
With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced for the Fed and USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a >5.0% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside.
POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES
With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows.
BIGGER PICTURE
The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. The data dependent stance from the Fed means that short-term data surprises can pull the USD either way and would be our preferred way of trading the Dollar right now. We have a very excited economic calendar for the US in the week ahead, with lots of important economic data and the FOMC meeting. For the econ data our expectation is for a cyclical reaction where very good data is expected to support the USD and very bad data expected to pressure the USD. As for the Fed, the main focus will be on whether the FOMC confirms a downshift in the pace and size of hikes.
AUDUSD Potential For Bearish ContinuationOn the H4 chart, as the price is breaking the ascending trendline and below ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop form the sell entry at 0.63351, which is in line with the 50% fibonacci resistance and overlap support to the take profit at 0.61699, where the swing low is. Alternatively, the price may rise to the 1st resistance at 0.64329, which is in line with the 50% fibonacci retracement.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
AUDUSD Potential for Bearish Momentum | 3rd November 2022On the H4 chart, the overall bias for AUDUSD is bearish. To add confluence to this, price is below the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bearish market.
Looking for a pullback sell entry at 0.63934, where the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci lines are located. Take profit will be located at 0.62578, where the 23.6% and 78.6% Fibonacci lines are located.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
AUDUSD Potential for Bearish Momentum | 3rd November 2022On the H4 chart, as the price is breaking the ascending trendline and below ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop form the 1st support at 0.63351, which is in line with the 50% fibonacci resistance and overlap support to the 2nd support at 0.61921, where the swing low is. Alternatively, the price may rise to the 1st resistance at 0.64253, which is in line with the 50% fibonacci retracement.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
AUDUSD H1: Bullish outlook seen, further upside above 0.6330On the H1 time frame, prices are facing bullish pressure from the support zone at 0.6330, in line with the 78.6% Fibonacci level. A throwback to this area presents an opportunity to play the bounce to the next resistance zone at 0.6400, which coincides with the descending trend line and 50% Fibonacci retracement. Stochastic is testing the support level at 7.46 as well where we could see more upside above this level, supporting the bullish bias.
InvestMate|AUD/USD Perfect time to buy🦘AUD/USD Perfect time to buy.
🦘Can we say that with this pair we are in an ideal place to buy?
🦘It seems to me that in the case of this pair we have already reached the current lows.
🦘Following the 75 point hike in the US interest rate on 2 November, the market assumes that the next one will be only 50 points and looking at the economic situation the FED does not have such a push to raise rates anymore.
🦘Today, 3 November, we also got important data on the trade balance, which positively surprised investors with high increases, far better than what the market was pricing in.
🦘1 November we also had the interest rate decision in Australia, which rose to a level of 2.85%, far less than the market was expecting, with the increase reaching 3.1%.
🦘But looking at inflation which is already reaching new highs of 7.3% definitely more than most expected. Looking at this perspective of a small increase in interest rates, we can only expect further increases in the current economic situation.
🦘What's different in the US where inflation has been slowing for more than 4 months now and the next reading will be on 10 November. Which puts an effective brake on future rate hikes.
🦘Looking at the last few weeks, we see clear signs of a weakening trend of dollar appreciation and the market is slowly discounting a gradual weakening of the dollar against other currencies.
🦘Turning to the chart.
🦘We see that we bottomed on 13 October.
🦘The uptrend has already been in place since 5 April this year.
🦘More importantly looking at the current medium term outlook we have today found ourselves at a very important support line, which in the past has been almost unbreakable resistance, repeatedly tested from below currently could be a strong support zone for the price.
🦘This looks like an ideal place to play the upside.
🦘Looking also at the fact that it is a fibo level of 0.5 or 50% of the entire upward wave from the bottom to the current peak.
🦘Only confirms me in my assumptions.
🦘Taking long positions at the current moment the most sensible option would be to set a stop order below the 0.63 level where the next strong level of the 0.618 upward wave is located with profit potential at new highs and for the patient even above them.
🦘 The high risk ratio may compensate for the time to wait for the position to materialise.
🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
AUDUSD Potential for Bullish Momentum | 2nd November 2022On the H4 chart, the overall bias for AUDUSD is bullish. To add confluence to this, price is above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish market. With price tapping into our buy entry at 0.63934, where the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci lines are located. We are looking to take profit at 0.65224 where the previous high and 100% Fibonacci line are located. I have a relatively safe stop loss set at 0.63306, which is slightly below where 2 of the 50% Fibonacci lines are located.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
AUDUSD Potential For Bullish RiseOn H4, with the price breaking the descending channel and above ichimoku cloud , we have a bullish bias that the price may rise from the buy entry at 0.63885, which is in line with the swing low support and 38.2% fibonacci retracement to the take profit at 0.65335, where the 38.2% fibonacci retracement is. Alternatively, the price may drop to the stop loss at 0.63027, which is in line with the 50% fibonacci retracement .
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Buying AUDUSD close to market.AUDUSD - 13h expiry - We look to Buy at 0.6400 (stop at 0.6355)
Previous support located at 0.6368.
Buying pressure from 0.6377 resulted in prices rejecting the dip.
Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 0.6400 level.
Although the anticipated move higher is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
Our profit targets will be 0.6530 and 0.6650
Resistance: 0.6650 / 0.6770 / 0.6910
Support: 0.6400 / 0.6170 / 0.5945
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group.
Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
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AUDUSD on a retracement move 🦐AUDUSD on the 4h chart is trading at the recent lows.
The price has started a choppy move between an ascending trendline and a minor resistance and a retracement to the upside can be expected.
How can i approach this scenario?
I will wait for the break of the structure and if the price will satisfy the Plancton's strategy rules i will set a nice long order.
–––––
Follow the Shrimp
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger
AUDUSD Potential For Bullish RiseOn H4, with the price breaking the descending channel and above ichimoku cloud , we have a bullish bias that the price may rise from the buy entry at 0.64079, which is in line with the swing low support to the take profit at 0.65335, where the 38.2% fibonacci retracement is. Alternatively, the price may drop to the stop loss at 0.63027, which is in line with the 50% fibonacci retracement .
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
AUDUSD H1: Bullish outlook seen, further upside above 0.6390On the H1 time frame, prices are testing the support zone at 0.6390, in line with the Fibonacci confluence levels where we could see further upside to the resistance zone at 0.6480. The 0.6480 resistance zone coincides with the graphical resistance and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Stochastic is bouncing off the support at 8.24 support as well and seeing a bullish divergence as highlighted in green, supporting the bullish bias.
AUDUSD Potential For Bullish RiseOn H4, with the price breaking the descending channel and above ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that the price may rise from the buy entry at 0.64079, which is in line with the swing low support to the take profit at 0.66741, where the 50% fibonacci retracement is. Alternatively, the price may drop to the stop loss at 0.63027, which is in line with the 50% fibonacci retracement .
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
AUDUSD 4hour Analysis October 30th, 2022AUDUSD Bullish Idea
Weekly Trend: Bearish
Daily Trend: Bearish
4Hour Trend: Bullish
Trade scenario 1: AU is looking newly bullish as the 4hour timeframe recently broke above 0.64000 and is attempting to form a higher low.
Look for strong bullish rejection and target higher toward 0.65500
Trade scenario 2: For us to see AU as bearish again on the 4hour timeframe we need to see a break back below 0.64000 with a lower high below showing us strong bearish rejection.
AUD/USD incoming Retracement(80 pips)Hello Traders
2 major events will affect AUD/USD in the upcoming week.
First RBA Interest Rate decision.
Second FED Interest Rate decision.
So we should expect high volatility in the following week.
So here is why we are bearish on AUD/USD:
1- Iron ore price dumped hard.
2- 0.25 bps RBA interest Rate has been already priced.
3- 0.75 bps FED interest Rate will affect minor pairs like AUD & NZD strongly.
Technically:
1- RSI and Stochastic are dropping.
2- Price has touched a strong resistance at 0.65.
3- Also Price has made a lower low that indicates a bearish trendline in the short term.
We expect to visit ZONE 1 one more time in the next few days.
Targets have been shown in the chart.
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Thanks For Reading
Team Fortuna
-RC
(Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
The week ahead - AUD (31 October 2022)AUDUSD reversed from the 0.6520 high last week to sit just above the 0.64 support level, ending the 250pip swing last week.
The RBA interest rate decision is due on Tuesday and the expectation is for a rate hike of 25bps taking interest rates from 2.60% to 2.85%. In the previous meeting, the RBA conveyed that it was looking to tune back on the scale of future rate increases. However, recent CPI data from Australia indicated that inflation was still increasing, which might force the RBA to rethink the decision to slow down on the rate hikes.
From the previous RBA rate decision, the price spiked up but was not able to sustain a move higher, only to trade lower later into the week. (check the previous RBA interest rates analysis)
Check the DXY analysis, if the DXY does strengthen due to the FOMC interest rate decision, the AUDUSD could first fluctuate along the 0.64 price level before trading lower towards the 0.6170 support level.