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AUDUSD 4hour Analysis July 17th, 2022AUDUSD Bearish Idea Weekly Trend: Bearish Daily Trend: Bearish 4Hour Trend: Bearish Trade scenario 1: We are clearly overall bearish on AUDUSD but price action has been bouncing between 0.68000 resistance & 0.67000 support for a while. The most likely scenario is a bearish continuation. Look for strong reversals from 0.68000 to then target lower. We are technically in a range so high quality price action setups only will be considered close to 0.68000 Trade scenario 2: For us to shake the bearish trend and consider AU more bullish we would need to see a massive rally that breaks 0.68500. This is where we have significant 4hour bearish structure that needs to be broken. After a break of 0.68500 we want to see bullish structure above 0.68500 in the form of a higher low.
Short
by ForexLeague
1
AUDUSD a turn at the 0.786 🦐AUDUSD on the 4h chart after the recent low over the daily support retraced to the 0.786 Fibonacci. The price is now creating an inversion after a double test of the resistance sructure. How can i approach this scenario? I will wait for the EU market open and if the market will break below will set a nice short order according to the Plancton's strategy rules. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger
Short
by InkyGrip
AUDUSD remains under pressure, lower prices expectedAUDUSD - Intraday - We look to Sell at 0.6840 (stop at 0.6890) Buying pressure from 0.6730 resulted in prices rejecting the dip. The current move higher is expected to continue. The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower. Our profit targets will be 0.6700 and 0.6540 Resistance: 0.6970 / 0.7130 / 0.7230 Support: 0.6540 / 0.6000 / 0.5845 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
Short
by OANDA
Double Top Pattern On AUD/USD - 4 Hour Hi Traders, Happy Tuesday. Today we are looking at AUD/USD Before we get into it, can we all just acknowledge the fact that the Euro and the US Dollar is officially one-to-one. The last time this was seen was in 2002. Twenty years ago. It's quite something to see. We are living in interesting times. The DXY is still rocketing upwards. Other markets are falling. As a trader, we love volatility right. That’s our bread and butter. And because we trade constantly, we’re the first people to see these moves before the rest of the world finds out. I think we should remember not to take this ability for granted. You’ve worked hard to be where you are and thankfully if you are a consistently profitable day trader, then you can take advantage of price swings like this. The rest of the world cant. So, let's remember to be grateful every day. Ok, let's move on to AUD/USD We are on the 4-hour time frame. The price has been bearish and still is. However, we may have a Double top playing out in this time frame. As you can see I have placed two arrows indicating where the tops are. I have also highlighted the neckline in yellow. The price moved straight through this neckline and is currently sitting way below it. We have very strong bearish volume at the same time. So what I would like to see is the price slowly come back up to the neckline, which is also the previous Support flipped resistance. This is a zone that has a lot of interest so I'm happy with it being a neckline zone. Moving to Volume, we have seen nothing but bearish volume, but what I would like to see with that possible retrace up to the neckline, is bullish volume, but we don’t want overpowering bullish volume with the retrace because that could indicate a possible reversal and we would most likely be stopped out. So we want to see bullish volume lower than this previous impulsive bearish volume we have been seeing. Moving to the MACD, we have divergence across the two tops of the Double Top. We can see this on the Histogram. Buyers were weakening and this just confirms our bearish bias because as we are trading with the trend remember. So we are looking for opportunities to go short. So on that note, let's watch and see what happens. I will be seeing you all on the next one. Hope you all have a great day! The Vortex Trader
Short
by TheVortexTrader
2
AUDUSD 1330 PIP LONG!AUDUSD LONG Why are we entering? - Expecting AUD strength and USD weakness - We have completed our bullish corrective wave and we are now at point C & our 1.272 fibonacci level where we are expecting a bullish impulse - We have completed our 5 subwaves down to our channel support where we are expecting strength What are we waiting for to happen? - Price to reject our 1.272 fibonacci level zone - Rejection of structure level Entry SAFE Entry: Rejection of structure level & 1.272 fib level zone with a break of descending WFB trendline Risk Entry 1: Rejection of structure level & 1.272 fib level zone Risk Entry 2: Early break of descending WFB trendline What is our confirmation? - Rejection of fibonacci, structure level and channel support - Break of WFB trendline Once entered, where will our Stoploss be? - Below the structure (above 0.674) 30 pips - Move SL to BE after running 30 pips Where do we take profits? - Secure profit multiple times along the way (30 pips, 60 pips, 120 pips, 200 pips) - First TP - Structure level : 0.726 (490pips) - Final TP - Structure level : 0.81 (1330pips)
Long
by Pips-Collector
2
AUDUSD LONG 1330 PIPS!AUDUSD LONG Why are we entering? - Expecting AUD strength and USD weakness - We have completed our bullish corrective wave and we are now at point C & our 1.272 fibonacci level where we are expecting a bullish impulse - We have completed our 5 subwaves down to our channel support where we are expecting strength What are we waiting for to happen? - Price to reject our 1.272 fibonacci level zone - Rejection of structure level Entry SAFE Entry: Rejection of structure level & 1.272 fib level zone with a break of descending WFB trendline Risk Entry 1: Rejection of structure level & 1.272 fib level zone Risk Entry 2: Early break of descending WFB trendline What is our confirmation? - Rejection of fibonacci, structure level and channel support - Break of WFB trendline Once entered, where will our Stoploss be? - Below the structure (above 0.674) 30 pips - Move SL to BE after running 30 pips Where do we take profits? - Secure profit multiple times along the way (30 pips, 60 pips, 120 pips, 200 pips) - First TP - Structure level : 0.726 (490pips) - Final TP - Structure level : 0.81 (1330pips)
Long
by Pips-Collector
3
AUDUSD 4hour Analysis July 10th, 2022AUDUSD Bearish Idea Weekly Trend: Bearish Daily Trend: Bearish 4Hour Trend: Bearish Trade scenario 1: We are looking bearish here on AU and price action looks to be setting up for a nice short opportunity pretty soon. Ideally, we can spot a clear reversal around 0.68500 with strong bearish setups to enter on. Look to target lower toward major support levels. Trade scenario 2: For us to consider AU bullish again we would need to see a break of 0.68500 resistance with structure in the form of a higher low above.
Short
by ForexLeague
2
AUDUSD a turn at the 0.618 🦐AUDUSD on the 4h chart after the recent lowe retraced to the 0.618 Fibonacci The price is now creating an inversion and is trading above the 0.5. How can i approach this scenario? I will wait for the EU market open and if the market will break below will set a nice short order according to the Plancton's strategy rules. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger
Short
by InkyGrip
6
AUD/USD Outlook (6 July 2022)The AUDUSD tracked lower from the 0.6850 level due to pressures from the DXY climb. The DXY strength was primarily due to the weakness in the Euro and the increasing concern of a global recession. Look for further downside as the AUD continues to be weighed down by depressed commodity and the expectation of lower economic activity and demand from a recession. The RBA hiked rates by 50bps taking Australian overnight rates to 1.35%. However this move had been signalled early on and is likely to have been priced in. A rate hike is also likely to bring the Australian economy onto the path of a recession. Therefore, AUDUSD could retrace towards 0.6850 but look for a reversal from the current level of 0.68, down towards support level of 0.67
Short
by JinDao_Tai
4
AUDUSD at the bottom of long-term Channel Down. Critical test!The AUDUSD pair has been trading within a long-term Channel Down pattern since the February 25 2021 market top. As we pointed out on our previous analysis on this pair, the trend remains bearish unless we get a candle closing above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line): In fact as you see, we got an emphatic rejection on the 1D MA200 instead, the 2nd within this 1.5 year long Channel Down pattern. Right now the price is on the Lower Lows (bottom) trend-line of this pattern, having marginally broken below the 0.67780 Gap. A closing below the Channel opens the way for the next Gap around 0.64000, in a similar sell-off fashion as the March 2020 break-down. As a result, a tight SL buy here is most optimal with low risk, targeting the 0.5 Fib (middle of Channel Down) and then break-out but if we close above the 1D MA200. But if the SL gets hit be quick to reverse to a sell targeting the 0.6400 Gap but take no risk, constantly moving the SL on break-even/ then on profit. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
2
AUD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BULLISH BASELINE Despite a decent recovery from the start of the year, the AUD has struggled in the midst underlying negative risk sentiment, China’s continued struggles with Covid breakouts, and more recently the big slump in key commodities (Iron Ore & Coal). China’s economy is always a key focus for the AUD. While all major economies are expected to slow in 2022, China is expected to recover (monetary and fiscal policy very stimulative). The expected recovery is a key input for our bullish AUD bias. China’s recovery and planned infrastructure spending should support Australia’s terms of trade due to key commodity exports like Iron Ore, Coal and LNG . However, the expected recovery in China has not been enough to keep key Australian commodity prices supported, and the big flush lower in those markets saw chunky downside for the AUD in the past week. The RBA that has finally starting their hiking cycle (fairly aggressively as well) should be supportive for the AUD, but as markets were well prepared for the RBA’s departure from their unnecessary dovish stance the pivot has not been very supportive. The short-term problem to the current bullish bias for the AUD is further virus concerns in China and further drops in commodities . As long as the covid situation stays bleak, and commodities continue to fall, the AUD might struggle to take advantage of positive drivers and makes it more sensitive to underlying risk sentiment. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Positive Covid developments in China (easing restrictions, more fiscal or monetary stimulus, or letting go of the covidzero policy) could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. With the RBA just getting started with their hiking cycle, there is scope for them to turn more aggressive, which means any overly hawkish comments or actions from them in the week ahead could trigger some bullish reactions. Any catalyst that triggers some recovery in Australia’s key commodity exports (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China, higher inflation fears) should be supportive for the AUD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Negative Covid developments in China (increasing restrictions or adding new ones) could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. Any catalyst that triggers more downside in Australia’s key commodity exports (additional China restrictions, demand destruction fears, and additional news on recent centralized iron ore buyers) could be negative for the AUD. The RBA has just started their new hiking cycle, and we’ve recently already heard the same stubbornly dovish comments from the likes of Gov Lowe pushing back against aggressive tightening. Thus, any overly dovish comments from them in the week ahead can trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the AUD remains positive for now, but that is largely dependent on what happens to China and whether key commodities like Iron Ore and Coal can stop their recent bleeding. Until the covid situation improves materially and until commodities stabilize, the AUD might struggle to maintain upside short-term momentum. USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE Hawkish Fed policy remains a key driver for Dollar strength. With headline inflation >8%, the Fed has been pressured to tighten policy aggressively, hiking rates by 75bsp at their June meeting, and continuing with Quantitative Tightening. However, as a result of increasing fears of a growth slowdown (as evidenced by recent econ data), STIR markets have repriced lower, and now expects a terminal rate of 3.3% (versus >4% before the June FOMC meeting). As STIRs reprice lower, we are expecting that to act as a possible short-term negative driver for the USD. Even though lower STIRs should be negative for the USD, as a lot of hikes have been baked in, the growth concerns sparked further risk off concerns this past week, which supported the USD. The USD is usually inversely correlated to the global economy and trade, appreciating when growth & inflation slows and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates (reflation). Further expectations of a cyclical slowdown and continued tight monetary policy expectations has seen investors shun risk assets and even bonds (usually considered a safe haven), and the USD has been a key benefactor of the rush to safety in recent weeks. Even though US bonds are considered safe havens, the current high inflation has seen a strong stock-to-bond correlation and has caused big bond outflows. With bonds not fulfilling its usual save haven role the USD has been the haven of choice. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES As aggressive Fed policy has been supporting the USD, any incoming data (this week’s ISM Services and NFP) that sparks further aggressive hike expectations, or additionally any comments from FOMC members that signals even more aggressive policy could trigger bullish reactions in the USD. As the cyclical outlook for the global economy is very bleak, and the USD is considered a safe haven, it means incoming data that exacerbates fears of recession and triggers a big rush to safety could trigger bullish USD reactions. Further outflows in US bonds means more USD safe haven appeal. So, watching key triggers for further upside in bond yields like rising commodity prices, rising inflation expectations and upside surprises in inflation data could also trigger further USD bullish reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Apart from this past week, the USD has reacted cyclically to incoming data which could suggest markets is shifting from safe haven focus to the rising risks of recession. The worse growth data gets, the higher likelihood of a ‘Fed Put’ in the months ahead. Thus, extremely bad ISM Services PMI or NFP data this week could trigger bearish reactions in the USD. Tactically the USD is trading at cycle highs, and aggregate CFTC positioning is close prior highs which acted as local tops for the USD. Thus, stretched positioning could make the USD vulnerable to mean reversion in the short-term. With a lot already priced for the Fed, it won’t take much for the Fed to disappoint markets on the dovish side. Any FOMC comments that suggests more concern about the economy than inflation could trigger bearish reactions in the USD BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressive and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk assets. But we do want to be mindful that lots has been priced for the USD, and as growth deteriorates, we are expecting that the weigh on the USD if markets start pricing in a higher likelihood of a less hawkish Fed due to higher recession risks. The opposite side to that though is that further concerns about the economy sees more safe haven inflows into the Dollar. Positioning is stretched, so we would prefer much deeper pullbacks for new med-term USD longs and would look for short-term catalyst that offer shorter bearish sentiment trades against the current strong bull trend.
by thunderpips
AUD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BULLISH BASELINE Despite a decent recovery from the start of the year, the AUD has struggled in the midst underlying negative risk sentiment, China’s continued struggles with Covid breakouts, and more recently the big slump in key commodities (Iron Ore & Coal). China’s economy is always a key focus for the AUD. While all major economies are expected to slow in 2022, China is expected to recover (monetary and fiscal policy very stimulative). The expected recovery is a key input for our bullish AUD bias. China’s recovery and planned infrastructure spending should support Australia’s terms of trade due to key commodity exports like Iron Ore, Coal and LNG. However, the expected recovery in China has not been enough to keep key Australian commodity prices supported, and the big flush lower in those markets saw chunky downside for the AUD in the past week. The RBA that has finally starting their hiking cycle (fairly aggressively as well) should be supportive for the AUD, but as markets were well prepared for the RBA’s departure from their unnecessary dovish stance the pivot has not been very supportive. The short-term problem to the current bullish bias for the AUD is further virus concerns in China and further drops in commodities. As long as the covid situation stays bleak, and commodities continue to fall, the AUD might struggle to take advantage of positive drivers and makes it more sensitive to underlying risk sentiment. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Positive Covid developments in China (easing restrictions, more fiscal or monetary stimulus, or letting go of the covidzero policy) could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. With the RBA just getting started with their hiking cycle, there is scope for them to turn more aggressive, which means any overly hawkish comments or actions from them in the week ahead could trigger some bullish reactions. Any catalyst that triggers some recovery in Australia’s key commodity exports (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China, higher inflation fears) should be supportive for the AUD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Negative Covid developments in China (increasing restrictions or adding new ones) could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. Any catalyst that triggers more downside in Australia’s key commodity exports (additional China restrictions, demand destruction fears, and additional news on recent centralized iron ore buyers) could be negative for the AUD. The RBA has just started their new hiking cycle, and we’ve recently already heard the same stubbornly dovish comments from the likes of Gov Lowe pushing back against aggressive tightening. Thus, any overly dovish comments from them in the week ahead can trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the AUD remains positive for now, but that is largely dependent on what happens to China and whether key commodities like Iron Ore and Coal can stop their recent bleeding. Until the covid situation improves materially and until commodities stabilize, the AUD might struggle to maintain upside short-term momentum. USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE Hawkish Fed policy remains a key driver for Dollar strength. With headline inflation >8%, the Fed has been pressured to tighten policy aggressively, hiking rates by 75bsp at their June meeting, and continuing with Quantitative Tightening. However, as a result of increasing fears of a growth slowdown (as evidenced by recent econ data), STIR markets have repriced lower, and now expects a terminal rate of 3.3% (versus >4% before the June FOMC meeting). As STIRs reprice lower, we are expecting that to act as a possible short-term negative driver for the USD. Even though lower STIRs should be negative for the USD, as a lot of hikes have been baked in, the growth concerns sparked further risk off concerns this past week, which supported the USD. The USD is usually inversely correlated to the global economy and trade, appreciating when growth & inflation slows and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates (reflation). Further expectations of a cyclical slowdown and continued tight monetary policy expectations has seen investors shun risk assets and even bonds (usually considered a safe haven), and the USD has been a key benefactor of the rush to safety in recent weeks. Even though US bonds are considered safe havens, the current high inflation has seen a strong stock-to-bond correlation and has caused big bond outflows. With bonds not fulfilling its usual save haven role the USD has been the haven of choice. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES As aggressive Fed policy has been supporting the USD, any incoming data (this week’s ISM Services and NFP) that sparks further aggressive hike expectations, or additionally any comments from FOMC members that signals even more aggressive policy could trigger bullish reactions in the USD. As the cyclical outlook for the global economy is very bleak, and the USD is considered a safe haven, it means incoming data that exacerbates fears of recession and triggers a big rush to safety could trigger bullish USD reactions. Further outflows in US bonds means more USD safe haven appeal. So, watching key triggers for further upside in bond yields like rising commodity prices, rising inflation expectations and upside surprises in inflation data could also trigger further USD bullish reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Apart from this past week, the USD has reacted cyclically to incoming data which could suggest markets is shifting from safe haven focus to the rising risks of recession. The worse growth data gets, the higher likelihood of a ‘Fed Put’ in the months ahead. Thus, extremely bad ISM Services PMI or NFP data this week could trigger bearish reactions in the USD. Tactically the USD is trading at cycle highs, and aggregate CFTC positioning is close prior highs which acted as local tops for the USD. Thus, stretched positioning could make the USD vulnerable to mean reversion in the short-term. With a lot already priced for the Fed, it won’t take much for the Fed to disappoint markets on the dovish side. Any FOMC comments that suggests more concern about the economy than inflation could trigger bearish reactions in the USD BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressive and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk assets. But we do want to be mindful that lots has been priced for the USD, and as growth deteriorates, we are expecting that the weigh on the USD if markets start pricing in a higher likelihood of a less hawkish Fed due to higher recession risks. The opposite side to that though is that further concerns about the economy sees more safe haven inflows into the Dollar. Positioning is stretched, so we would prefer much deeper pullbacks for new med-term USD longs and would look for short-term catalyst that offer shorter bearish sentiment trades against the current strong bull trend.
by thunderpips
AU BIG SHORT OPPORTUNITY - SWING TRADEAUD/USD Not looking good here. There is a strong key level at 68-69c that has acted as a huge resistance and support in the past going back years down the line if you take a look. We've created some real heavy bearish structure leading into this level and we just closed below it on the daily. IF the bearish trend continues, we could see a rejection of this level and what once was support will turn to resistance and i see no stopping it until the Weekly order block located below at my TP. Big R:R Trade. Risk Rating: 6/10 NFA DYOR.
Short
by AltSetupsTrader