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AUDUSD potential for drop! | 24th March 2022Prices are approaching our Pivot. We see the potential for a pullback from our sell entry at 0.75056 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences towards our Take Profit at 0.7425 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. RSI is portraying bearish divergence. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
AUDUSD close to breaking bullish long-termThe AUDUSD pair has turned bullish on the medium-term since it broke (firstly) above the dashed Lower Highs trend-line (similar to the September-October 2020 fractal) and (secondly) above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been intact since July 06 2021. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is supporting and right now the pair is attempting the most important test on the long-term, the Lower Highs trend-line of the Channel Down, which is the dominant (bearish) trend since the start of 2021. If broken, expect a Resistance 1 test (0.75570) initially, as long as the Higher Lows trend-line and the 1D MA50 are supporting. A 1D candle closing above the Resistance 1, can initiate a 0.78235 test, which is the Symmetrical Resistance of the September-October 2020 fractal. On the other hand, a 1D candle closing beow the Higher Lows trend-line, is a sell signal towards the 0.70000 Support. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
3
AUDUSD H4 Potential Bearish Reversal | 21st March 2022On the H4, price is near Pivot level of 0.74298 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection and 127.2% Fibonacci extension . Price can move towards the Take Profit level of 0.73105 which is in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection . Our bearish bias is supported by stochastic indicator where it is at resistance level . Alternatively, price might go up to Stop Loss level at 0.74829 with 161.8% Fibonacci extension . Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
AUDUSD H4 Potential Bearish Reversal | 21th March 2022On the H4, price is near Pivot level of 0.74298 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Price can move towards the Take Profit level of 0.73105 which is in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is supported by stochastic indicator where it is at resistance level. Alternatively, price might go up to Stop Loss level at 0.74829 with 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
AUDUSD 4hour Analysis March 20th, 2022AUDUSD Bullish Idea Weekly Trend: Bullish Daily Trend: Bullish 4Hour Trend: Bullish Trade scenario 1: We are very bullish on AU recently but now price action is right near key resistance around 0.74000. We know that price action is overextended and without structure so our best play is to wait for our next structure point. Our ideal scenario is if price action pulls back now to form a higher low closer to 0.73000. Look for strong bullish entry candles and target back toward 0.74000 resistance. Trade scenario 2: If price action continues to rally and we see price action break through 0.74000 resistance we ideally need a structure forming higher low above 0.74000 to even consider longs. Price action is just too overextended to take a trade without key structure.
Long
by ForexLeague
Dominant Currency Sentiment – AUD Supported Heading into today’s European trading session, the risk tone is leaning risk-on. Asia-Pacific indices are notably positive, measures of volatility subdued and safe-havens pressured. Leading Asia-Pacific indices to the upside is the Hang Seng at +6.16%, followed by the Nikkei 225 at +3.46%, the Topix at +2.47% and the CSI 300 and ASX 200 at +1.96% and +1.05%, respectively. In the FX complex, the positive risk-on tone – which remains a function of hopes for further stimulus from Beijing – sees safe-havens leading to the downside. CHF is currently the session laggard, followed closely by JPY and USD, with AUDUSD reclaiming the 0.73 handle. Indeed, the positive risk tone and strong employment report sees AUD leading to the upside. Both Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate beat expectations causing some analysts to now to suggest the RBA should adopt a more aggressive stance. CBA notes there is now a clear risk the RBA would drop its commitment to being “patient” on rates at the next policy meeting. Looking ahead. Today’s European trading session will see the latest inflation figures from Europe. However, the main event will be the BoE’s latest policy decision, where the central bank is widely expected to announce a further 25 basis point hike.
by thunderpips
AUD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy At their March meeting, the bank didn’t do much to surprise markets and stuck to a similar script compared to the previous meeting, with the exception of adding the Russia/Ukraine war as a major new source of uncertainty. While Unemployment is at 4.2% and expected to be below 4% throughout 2023, and with Inflation above the middle of the target range and expected to rise to 3.25 this year and stay at 2.75% throughout 2023, the continues dovish façade is getting a little embarrassing for the bank. Even though wage growth failed to surprise higher, consensus still expects it to reach 3% in Q2 and well above 3% in Q3, and once the 3% level is reached the RBA would have complete ran out of reasons to stay dovish. It’s clear that markets are looking straight through this though as STIR markets, bond yields and the AUD failed to see any real downside after the meeting and continued higher after a very brief and small dip lower. For now, the bank stays dovish, but the longer they stay in denial the longer the chances of a more aggressive hawkish pivot later. 2. Idiosyncratic Drivers & Intermarket Analysis Apart from the RBA, there are 4 drivers we’re watching for the med-term outlook: Recovery – unlike other nations where growth & inflation is expected to slow, Australia is expected to see a solid post-covid recovery China – With the PBoC stepping up stimulus & expectations of further fiscal support expected in 1H22, the projected recovery in China bodes well for Australia as China makes up close to 40% of Australian exports. However, the AUKUS defence pact could see retaliation against Aussie goods and is worth keeping on the radar. Commodities – Iron Ore (24% of exports) and Coal (18% of exports) keep grinding higher for various reasons, one being China’s expected recovery and the other the energy and inflation concerns given the geopolitical risks, and as long as these commodities are supported, they should remain supported. 3. Global Risk Outlook As a high-beta currency, the AUD usually benefits from overall positive risk sentiment as well as environments that benefit pro-cyclical assets. Thus, both short-term (immediate) and med-term (underlying) risk sentiment will always be a key consideration for the AUD. 4. CFTC Analysis CFTC positioning data for the AUD was interesting with large spec seeing almost no change (remember we anticipated a lot more unwind in this week’s data), while leverage funds saw a hefty increase in net-shorts and asset managers a hefty reduction in shorts. The only thin common among all three is that we are still in net-short territory, which despite frothy upside in the AUD, can still see upside, but price action is stretched right now. USD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy The Jan FOMC decision was hawkish on multiple fronts. The statement signalled a March hike as expected, but Chair Powell portrayed a very hawkish tone. Even though Powell said they can’t predict the rate path with certainty, he stressed the economy is in much better shape compared to the 2015 cycle and that will have implications for the pace of hikes (more and faster). Furthermore, he explained that there is ‘quite a bit of room’ to raise rates without damaging employment, which suggests upside risks to the rate path. A big question going into the meeting was how concerned the Fed was about recent equity market volatility . But the Chair explained that markets and financial conditions are reflecting policy changes in advance and that in aggregate the measures they look at isn’t showing red lights. Thus, any ‘Fed Put’ is much further away and inflation is the Fed’s biggest concern right now. The Chair also didn’t rule out the possibility of a 50bsp hike in March or possibly hiking at every meeting this year, which was hawkish as it means the Fed wants optionality to move more aggressive if they need to. We didn’t get new info on the balance sheet and Powell reiterated that they’re contemplating a start of QT after hiking has begun and they’ll discuss this in coming meetings. Overall, the tone and language were a lot more hawkish than the Dec meeting and more hawkish than consensus was expecting. 2. Global & Domestic Economy As the reserve currency, the USD’s global usage means it’s usually inversely correlated to the global economy and global trade. The USD usually appreciates when growth & inflation slow (disinflation) and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates (reflation). Thus, current expectations of a cyclical slowdown (and possible stagflation) are good for the Dollar. Incoming data will be watched in relation to the ‘Fed Put’ as there are many similarities between now and 4Q18, where the Fed were also tightening into a slowdown. If growth data slows and the Fed stays hawkish it’s a positive for the USD, once the Fed pivots dovish that’ll be a negative for the USD. 3. CFTC Analysis The USD remains a net-long across major participants, but with price action looking stretched and with peak hawkishness for the Fed arguably close with >6 hikes priced, the risk to reward of chasing USD strength is not very attractive right now. Continued stagflation and geopolitical risks it mean that stretched positioning might not be as important as usual. JP Morgan also shared some stats that suggest the USD has a historical tendency to strengthen in the 6 months going into a first hike but then to weaken during the 6 months directly after a first hike. This is an interesting phenomenon which is worth keeping in mind given the USD’s recent performance.
by thunderpips
3
AUDUSD potential for bounce | 16th MarchPrice is near buy entry level of 0.71749 in line with 100% Fibonacci projection and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Price can potentially bounce to the take profit level of 0.72830 in line with 100% Fibonacci projection and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Our bullish bias is supported by stochastic indicator as it is at support level. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Genesiv
AUDUSD can continue lower? 🦐AUDUSD on the 4h chart after the recent start a retracement move until the 0.71700 area. At the beginning of the downtrend, I can see an attempt of the price to break the resistance level at the 0.73600 over the 0.618 Fibonacci level, with the following bear pressure coming in that pushes lower the price with a consequent break of the bear flag and the daily ascending trendline. How can we approach this scenario? Now the market is close by a minor support and after a large. number of red candle i can expect some retracement to the upside brofre a break below. We will wait for the European market open and check if the price will break below the support area , in that case i ll check for a possible short entry according to the Plancton's academy rules. ––––– Follow the Shrimp Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger
Short
by InkyGrip
AUDUSD 4hour Analysis March 13th, 2022AUDUSD Bullish Idea Weekly Trend: Bullish Daily Trend: Bullish 4Hour Trend: Bullish Trade scenario 1: We are also looking very bullish on this pair, AU. We can consider our support level around 0.73000 as the key zone. As long as price action is above 0.73000 we will generally be looking for long scenarios. Ideally we can spot a strong reversal above 0.73000 with entry confirmations to enter long on. Trade scenario 2: For us to consider AU bearish we first need to see a break of 0.73000 support with a lower high below.
Long
by ForexLeague
1
AUD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy At their March meeting, the bank didn’t do much to surprise markets and stuck to a similar script compared to the previous meeting, with the exception of adding the Russia/Ukraine war as a major new source of uncertainty. While Unemployment is at 4.2% and expected to be below 4% throughout 2023, and with Inflation above the middle of the target range and expected to rise to 3.25 this year and stay at 2.75% throughout 2023, the continues dovish façade is getting a little embarrassing for the bank. Even though wage growth failed to surprise higher, consensus still expects it to reach 3% in Q2 and well above 3% in Q3, and once the 3% level is reached the RBA would have complete ran out of reasons to stay dovish. It’s clear that markets are looking straight through this though as STIR markets, bond yields and the AUD failed to see any real downside after the meeting and continued higher after a very brief and small dip lower. For now, the bank stays dovish, but the longer they stay in denial the longer the chances of a more aggressive hawkish pivot later. 2. Idiosyncratic Drivers & Intermarket Analysis Apart from the RBA, there are 4 drivers we’re watching for the med-term outlook: Recovery – unlike other nations where growth & inflation is expected to slow, Australia is expected to see a solid post-covid recovery China – With the PBoC stepping up stimulus & expectations of further fiscal support expected in 1H22, the projected recovery in China bodes well for Australia as China makes up close to 40% of Australian exports. However, the AUKUS defence pact could see retaliation against Aussie goods and is worth keeping on the radar. Commodities – Iron Ore (24% of exports) and Coal (18% of exports) keep grinding higher for various reasons, one being China’s expected recovery and the other the energy and inflation concerns given the geopolitical risks, and as long as these commodities are supported, they should remain supported. 3. Global Risk Outlook As a high-beta currency, the AUD usually benefits from overall positive risk sentiment as well as environments that benefit pro-cyclical assets. Thus, both short-term (immediate) and med-term (underlying) risk sentiment will always be a key consideration for the AUD. 4. CFTC Analysis Remember that the updated COT data we received on Friday only included price action until Tuesday of last week, which means the meteoric rip from the latter part of last week is not included in the data. Even though positioning is still very stretched and there is still room to unwind, we would expect quite a sizeable reduction in the current net-shorts with next week’s data as bag holders is no doubt starting to get worried. USD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy The Jan FOMC decision was hawkish on multiple fronts. The statement signalled a March hike as expected, but Chair Powell portrayed a very hawkish tone. Even though Powell said they can’t predict the rate path with certainty, he stressed the economy is in much better shape compared to the 2015 cycle and that will have implications for the pace of hikes (more and faster). Furthermore, he explained that there is ‘quite a bit of room’ to raise rates without damaging employment, which suggests upside risks to the rate path. A big question going into the meeting was how concerned the Fed was about recent equity market volatility . But the Chair explained that markets and financial conditions are reflecting policy changes in advance and that in aggregate the measures they look at isn’t showing red lights. Thus, any ‘Fed Put’ is much further away and inflation is the Fed’s biggest concern right now. The Chair also didn’t rule out the possibility of a 50bsp hike in March or possibly hiking at every meeting this year, which was hawkish as it means the Fed wants optionality to move more aggressive if they need to. We didn’t get new info on the balance sheet and Powell reiterated that they’re contemplating a start of QT after hiking has begun and they’ll discuss this in coming meetings. Overall, the tone and language were a lot more hawkish than the Dec meeting and more hawkish than consensus was expecting. 2. Global & Domestic Economy As the reserve currency, the USD’s global usage means it’s usually inversely correlated to the global economy and global trade. Thus, USD usually appreciates when growth & inflation slow (disinflation) and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates (reflation). With expectations that growth and inflation will decelerate this year that should be a positive input for the USD. However, incoming data will also be important in relation to the ‘Fed Put’. There are many similarities between now and 4Q18, where the Fed were also tightening aggressively going into an economic slowdown. As long as growth data slows and the Fed stays aggressive that is a positive for the USD, but if it causes a dovish Fed pivot and lower rate repricing it would be a negative input for the USD. 3. CFTC Analysis With peak hawkishness for the Fed arguably close to baked in for the USD, it’s been interesting to view the positioning unfold in the past few weeks. The USD remains a net-long across large specs, leveraged funds and asset managers, but price action has been looking stretched. However, given growing stagflation and geopolitical risks it means stretched positioning might not be as important right now, but worth keeping in mind of course.
by thunderpips
1