Aud
AUDUSD-The first interest rate cut is postponed until next year?The AUDUSD currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. In case of a valid failure of the channel ceiling, we can see the supply zones and sell within those zones with the appropriate risk reward. The loss of the drawn support range will pave the way down for this currency pair.
The Australian government’s plan to reform the central bank by splitting its board into two divisions is close to becoming law.Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s administration is pushing through dozens of bills in the Senate during the final parliamentary session of the year to implement these major reforms.
In this process, the government and the minority Green Party reached a last-minute agreement to revive stalled legislation. Previous negotiations had failed because the Greens demanded an immediate interest rate cut by Treasurer Jim Chalmers, which critics argued could undermine the central bank’s independence. Now, with sufficient political support, these long-awaited reforms are set to be enacted soon, potentially reshaping Australia’s monetary and economic policies.
Australia’s four major banks—ANZ, Commonwealth Bank, National Australia Bank, and Westpac—have adjusted their forecasts for when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will make its first interest rate cut. Westpac and NAB now expect this to occur in May 2025, while CBA and ANZ continue to anticipate a February 2025 cut, albeit with caution. The next RBA meeting is scheduled for December 9–10, 2024.
S&P Global Ratings, in its outlook for the global economy in Q1 2025, stated, “Risks are increasing as the new U.S. administration’s policies are likely to heighten inflationary pressures and tighten financial conditions.” The agency predicts global GDP growth of about 3% in 2025, with U.S. economic growth dropping below 2% and China moving toward 4% growth.
According to Bloomberg, economists anticipate that China’s exports will hit a record high this year as international customers place orders early to avoid potential tariffs threatened by Trump. Meanwhile, Australia, known as a safe haven for heavy-duty pickup trucks, is set to experience its most significant automotive shift in years, with new models arriving, including the first off-road hybrid vehicle from China’s BYD.
Australia, famous for its love of SUVs and petrol-fueled pickups, remains one of the laggards in adopting electric vehicles. According to the Australian Automobile Association, EV sales in Q3 dropped by 25% compared to Q2, accounting for just 6.6% of the market—the lowest share since 2022. However, the arrival of new hybrid models like the BYD Shark 6 could transform Australia’s automotive market and boost demand for electric and hybrid vehicles.
Meanwhile, a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Commerce reiterated the country’s opposition to unilateral U.S. tariffs. He urged the U.S. to adhere to World Trade Organization (WTO) rules and emphasized that imposing tariffs would not solve America’s economic challenges. China’s stance against unilateral tariff increases, including those threatened by Trump, remains consistent.
On the other hand, the U.S. economy grew at a robust pace in Q3, primarily driven by a significant surge in consumer spending as inflation continued to ease. GDP rose at an annual rate of 2.8% during this period. Consumer spending, the primary engine of economic growth, increased by 3.5%, marking the highest rate this year.
According to the GDPNow model, the real GDP growth rate (seasonally adjusted annual rate) for Q4 2024 was revised to 2.7% on November 27, up from 2.6% on November 19. Following the release of the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’ Personal Income and Outlays report, real personal consumption expenditures growth for Q4 was revised upward from 2.8% to 3.0%.
Sell AUD/CAD Triangle BreakoutThe AUD/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position Below the Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 0.9104
Target Levels:
1st Support – 0.9060
2nd Support – 0.9032
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
AUDUSD - Short Trade IdeaThis is a short idea on AUDUSD.
I'm anticipating lower prices towards a higher timeframe ascending trendline, after price took out buyside liquidity from a descending trendline and then displacing lower.
The trendline in the image is one isolated to around these timeframes, and not the HTF narrative. Besides that, I'm basing it off a Daily iFVG and Daily -OB. First target is the most recent low that price made.
Stoploss at immediate swing high, but completely possible for price to come up during a high impact news event to take out the buyside liquidity above. Either a sweep, or this idea is completely wrong.
Good luck and safe trading.
- R2F
AUDJPY Channel Up approaching its bottom.The AUDJPY pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the August 05 Low and yesterday broke below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The previous Low of the pattern was priced on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level as well as when the 1D RSI started rising after almost hitting the oversold (30.00) barrier.
As a result we are looking for a buy below 97.500, targeting 104.000 (just under the -0.236 Fibonacci extension, which was the last Higher High).
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GBPAUD - England will continue its economic growth?!The GBPAUD currency pair is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. In case of failure of this channel, we can see the supply zone and sell within that zone with appropriate risk reward. Continued movement in the channel will pave the way for this currency pair to go down to the demand zones. GBPAUD buy positions can be looked for in two demand zones.
Donald Trump, the U.S. president-elect, has threatened to impose a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports starting January 20, the day his presidency begins. In response, China’s embassy in Washington stated on Monday that neither the United States nor China would win a trade war. Liu Pengyu, the embassy spokesperson, said in a statement: “China believes that economic and trade cooperation between China and the United States is inherently mutually beneficial.”
In Australia, the monthly CPI index remained unchanged at 2.1% year-on-year in October, falling short of expectations for an increase to 2.5%. This marks the lowest annual inflation rate since July 2021. Core inflation indicators provided mixed signals, with CPI excluding volatile items and holiday travel dropping from 2.7% to 2.4% year-on-year. However, the trimmed mean CPI, the preferred measure of core inflation, rose from 3.2% to 3.5%, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures in certain sectors.
Michelle Marquardt, head of price statistics at the Australian Bureau of Statistics, highlighted that declines in electricity and fuel prices had a significant impact on annual CPI. She emphasized the importance of core inflation measures like the trimmed mean in offering deeper insights into inflation trends amid significant price fluctuations.
In the UK, according to the latest Reuters poll, house prices are expected to rise by 3.1% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026. These figures show slight adjustments compared to September’s survey. In London, house prices are projected to grow by 3.0% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026.
October inflation data for the UK exceeded expectations. Headline inflation rose to 2.3%, while core inflation unexpectedly increased to 3.3%, and services inflation reached 5.0%. Rising energy costs and a slowdown in declining goods prices were the primary drivers of this inflation increase.
The Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in December and cut rates by 25 basis points at its February meeting next year. Overall, the UK’s economic performance appears slightly better than the Eurozone, though it still struggles to achieve sustainable growth and economic recovery.
The UK’s manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.6 in November, with the new orders component falling to 47.0. The services PMI also declined to 50.0. These figures suggest that the Bank of England faces challenges not only in controlling inflation but also in improving economic activity, production, and employment. As a result, the central bank is likely to adopt a cautious and measured approach in its policy decisions, at least for the next month.
GBPAUDHere is our view on GBPAUD . Potential short opportunity.
GBPAUD has been in a downtrend for the past month. After GBPAUD broke below the KDZ (Key Demand Zone ) we have made a retest of it. With this in mind, we can speculate that GBPAUD will continue with the trend after making its retest to the KDZ (Key Demand Zone). Our entry is sitting roughly at around 1.94250 . Our SL (Stop Loss) is sitting at 1.95322 as the pair still might try to create a “double top” at the 1.95105 KL (Key Level) . Our TP (Take Profit) is sitting at the bottom of the range roughly at around 1.91261 .
Keep in mind this trade will take some time to be completed.
PARAMETERS
- Entry: 1.94250
- SL: 1.95322
- TP: 1.91261
KEY NOTES
- GBPAUD is in a downtrend for the past month.
- Broke below the KDZ (Key Demand Zone) and is now retesting it.
- Breaks above our SL (Stop Loss) would result in higher prices and possible reverses.
Happy trading!
FxPocket
Overlap resistance ahead?GBP/AUD is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 50% Fibonacci support.
Pivot: 1.9487
1st Support: 1.9338
1st Resistance: 1.9577
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
AUDUSD Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring AUDUSD for a selling opportunity around 0.64900 zone, AUDUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.64900 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Bearish drop?AUD/JPY is rising towards the pivot which lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could drop to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support.
Pivot: 100.20
1st Support: 99.09
1st Resistance: 100.86
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Potential bullish bounce?AUD/CAD is falling towards the pivot which is a pullback support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 0.91276
1st Support: 0.90738
1st Resistance: 0.91997
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bullish bounce off 50% Fibonacci support?AUD/NZD is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 1.10888
1st Support: 1.10488
1st Resistance: 1.11507
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Risk could plunge in 2025 if AUD/JPY clues are correctAUD/JPY is a classic barometer of risk. So I find it quite interesting to see that price action clues on the monthly chart are not too dissimilar to what we saw ahead of the GFC high in 2007. And if AUD/JPY plunges, the chances are it means global markets will also be in turmoil.
MS.
AUD/USD: Consolidation Amid Strength in Both CurrenciesAUD/USD: Consolidation Amid Strength in Both Currencies
The AUD/USD pair remained relatively steady last week, consolidating as both the Australian dollar (AUD) and the US dollar (USD) stood out as some of the strongest currencies in the forex market. While both currencies are supported by robust fundamentals, differing factors drive their respective strengths, creating an interesting dynamic for the pair.
Strength in the Australian Dollar
The Australian dollar’s strength stems from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) ability to maintain its current monetary policy. With interest rates at 4.35%, the RBA faces less urgency to implement sharp rate cuts, supported by:
- GDP Annual Growth Rate: Australia’s economy is growing at 1.00% annually, showing moderate but steady expansion.
- Inflation and Employment: Relatively high inflation and low unemployment provide the central bank room to hold rates steady, balancing growth with price stability.
These factors position the AUD as one of the more stable and attractive currencies among major forex pairs.
The Resilient US Dollar
On the other hand, the US dollar remains strong, bolstered by robust economic data and the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates:
- Initial Jobless Claims (Nov. 16): Better-than-expected at 213K, indicating a healthy labor market.
- S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Nov.): Surprising to the upside at 57.0, reflecting strong activity in the services sector.
With US interest rates at 4.75%, higher than Australia’s, and diminishing prospects of immediate rate cuts, the USD continues to attract global capital. However, the dollar’s strength is moderated by seasonal trends and risk-on sentiment, which tend to favor higher-yielding and riskier assets like the AUD.
Key Event Ahead for the AUD
The most significant event for the Australian dollar this week will be the release of the Monthly CPI Indicator (October) on Wednesday. The market is anticipating a reading of 2.3%, which will provide crucial insight into inflation trends and the RBA’s potential policy direction. A higher-than-expected result could further strengthen the AUD by reducing expectations of future rate cuts.
Seasonality and Risk-On Sentiment
Seasonal patterns and a supportive risk-on sentiment are also aiding the AUD/USD pair. Investors’ appetite for riskier assets typically benefits the Australian dollar, which is closely tied to global growth and commodity markets.
Conclusion
AUD/USD is in a unique position as both currencies are supported by strong fundamentals. While the Australian dollar benefits from steady domestic conditions and inflationary pressures, the US dollar is bolstered by robust economic performance and higher interest rates.
The upcoming inflation report in Australia will likely set the tone for the AUD’s near-term trajectory, while broader market sentiment and seasonal trends could favor continued consolidation or moderate gains in the pair.
What are your thoughts on AUD/USD? Could the Australian dollar take the lead, or will the US dollar maintain its upper hand? Share your insights in the comments!
Bearish drop?The Aussie (AUD/USD) is rising towards the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance and could drop to the pullback support.
Pivot: 0.6557
1st Support: 0.6442
1st Resistance: 0.6645
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
AUDUSD: Time to turn bullish again.AUDUSD is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 41.008, MACD = -0.006, ADX = 21.063) as it has been declining since the September 30th High. Technically though it is time to turn bullish again as not only has the 1D MACD formed a Bullish Cross, but the double bottom on the 1D RSI is identical to the February 13th 2024 Low. The resulting rebound reached the 0.5 Fibonacci level before a rejection. Consequently, we are turning bullish here, aiming for the current 0.5 Fib (TP = 0.66900).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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AUDUSD Is Approaching Key Retrace Area After Trend's BreakoutHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring AUDUSD for a selling opportunity around 0.65050, AUDUSD was trading in an uptrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 0.65050 support and resistance zone.
Trade safe, Joe.
Bearish reversal?AUD/CHF is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.57896
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.58224
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 0.57508
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
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Buy AUD/JPY Bullish ChannelThe AUD/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bullish Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the Upside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around the current price of 101.04, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 101.94
2nd Support – 102.54
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
AUDUSD - Trump continues to influence the dollar!The AUDUSD currency pair is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. In case of an upward correction due to the release of economic data this week, we can see the supply zone and sell within those limits with the appropriate risk reward. As long as the drawn upward trend line is maintained, the target of this corrective movement will be the ceiling of the descending channel.
The recent U.S. elections have sparked two contrasting narratives about the country’s economic future. One emphasizes economic growth through tax and regulatory cuts, while the other highlights downside risks stemming from tariffs and overall policy uncertainty. However, the business cycle’s strong performance to date remains a key consideration.
Forecasts suggest that U.S. economic growth will slightly slow to 2% in 2025, with unemployment rising modestly to 4.5%. Additionally, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE) index is expected to decrease by 0.5% next year, settling at 2.3%. The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December and reduce them further to 3.75% by the end of Q3 2025.
On the trade policy front, significant tariff increases on China are anticipated, though no major changes are expected elsewhere. These tariffs could reduce trade volumes and raise import prices.
According to a recent Federal Reserve Bank of New York report, credit application rejection rates in 2024 are projected to be significantly higher than in 2019. The report also indicates that households are expected to be less inclined to apply for credit next year. Rejection rates for mortgage refinancing and auto loans have reached record highs in the survey’s history. Furthermore, the share of Americans refraining from applying for credit due to discouragement is on the rise.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has revised its 2025 economic growth forecast for Australia downward, citing potential negative spillovers from the expected increase in U.S. tariffs on China. In its 2025 Australia and New Zealand Outlook report, Goldman now predicts a 1.8% rise in Australia’s GDP for next year, down from its earlier 2% forecast. This adjustment reflects the anticipated impact of tariffs on Australia’s exports, given that China is its largest trading partner.
President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose a 60% tariff on Chinese exports, aiming to protect American businesses and jobs.
In response, Chinese President Xi Jinping has remarked that China-Australia relations have maintained a positive trajectory of growth. He emphasized the need for enhanced coordination and cooperation between the two nations, stating that there are no fundamental conflicts of interest between them. Xi also called on Australia to create fairer trade conditions, announcing China’s readiness to increase imports of high-quality Australian products and encourage Chinese companies to invest in the country.
Falling towards the 38.2% Fibonacci support?AUD/CHF is falling towards the pivot which is an overlap support and could bounce to the pullback resistance.
Pivot: 0.57525
1st Support: 0.57174
1st Resistance: 0.57925
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.