Aud
EURAUD some more upside to 1.686?Eur has been pretty strong past period against aud, has been in my watchlist /tradelist as well.
Should have bit more upside. Let's see
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AUDUSD Buy confirmed if the 1D MA50 breaks.The AUDUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since February 02. Yesterday it hit again Support 1 (0.62885) for the 3rd time in October and held it. The first hit was also on the Diverging Lower Lows trend-line of the Channel Down and even though there is still room before it hits the hard bottom of the pattern, the Bullish Divergence (Higher Lows) on the 1D RSI in the past 2 months, indicates that this is already a strong buying candidate.
If a 1D candle closes above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), something we haven't seen since July 31 2023, buying will be confirmed. Our target it at least the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level at 0.66000. The June 16 rebound even hit the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which currently is above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), a key long-term Resistance.
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AUD/USD rises for fifth day (but resistance looms)The Aussie has risen for a fifth day, but it is worth noting that minor rallies tend to peter out around the 5-6 day mark. Price action on the 1-hour chart also suggests the rally could be corrective, against its drop from 65c-63c.
Given a bearish RSI divergence is forming on the 1-hour RSI (14) and the 50-day EMA resides around the weekly R1 pivot, we're looking for evidence of a swing high and for momentum to turn lower.
AUD/USD looks set to extend its bounceThe Aussie fell in line with our bearish bias last week, thanks to stronger-than-expected CPI data from the US and the Middle East conflict. Yet despite the risk-off sentiment, the Aussie held above 63c last week and formed a bullish engulfing day on Monday.
A bullish engulfing candle also formed on the 4-hour candle, prices are back above the September low and are now considering a break above the monthly pivot.
Given the liquidity gap (LG) that formed during last week's decline, a break above last week's high assumes the LG could be filled if prices break higher.
The near-term bias remains bullish above the 4-hour candle low.
Bullish Outlook for GBP/AUDI believe the GBP/AUD pair remains a favorable buy. It appears to be severely oversold, and on the larger time frames, it continues to exhibit a bullish sentiment. Over the coming weeks, which may extend to a total of 3-5 weeks, we anticipate movement towards our targets. It's advisable to monitor this currency pair closely, as it presents substantial upside potential. Please remember to trade responsibly.
I'll continue to update as needed.
Hope you all have a great trading week.
EURAUD continues in the upward move.EURAUD - 24h expiry
There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end.
Although we remain bullish overall, a correction is possible with plenty of room to move lower without impacting the trend higher.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
A move through 1.6825 will confirm the bullish momentum.
Short term RSI is moving higher.
We look to Buy at 1.6750 (stop at 1.6690)
Our profit targets will be 1.6900 and 1.6930
Resistance: 1.6850 / 1.6900 / 1.6925
Support: 1.6750 / 1.6700 / 1.6675
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✨ NEW: AUDUSD ✨ DAY TRADE ✨PA is already in the DEMAND ZONE, however, it's possible that it has a little more to go to the downside. So I've decided to TAKE A CHANCE at shorting low on the curve.
‼️ THIS IS AN AGGRESSIVE SHORTING OPPORTUNITY ‼️
SSO @ 0.6415 ⏳
TP1 @ 0.6315
⚠️ TREND
— Momentum: Big Picture Uptrend
— Price Action: Downtrend Retracement
— CounterTrend: YES (aggressive risk trade)
AUDJPY Solid short signal.AUDJPY is on a 1-2-3 pattern like the one in July, currently on the 3rd led down.
This is basically resembling Descending Triangle pattern. One last bearish leg to give before it breaks upwards.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 94.000 (Support A).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) patterns between the two sequences are also similar both inside Channel Down formations. This also points to a bearish leg next.
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AUDUSD BEARISH SETUP|LONGHello Traders, here is the full analysis.
Watch strong action at the current levels for SELL GOOD LUCK! Great SELL opportunity AUDUSD
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EURAUD possible forecastPrice has just recently had a MSS to the upside. It is now currently approaching a previously established supply zone that it could use to retrace into the deeper 4h structure to take out liquidity and mitigate a demand zone it left during the expansion. It is this very same demand zone that price could use to expand further up to take out the external daily swing high.
AUDUSD will go Up soon(⏰(4-Hour)⏰🏃♂️ AUDUSD is running in 🟡 Price Reversal Zones(PRZ) 🟡 and near the Important Support line and Support line .
💡Also, we can see Regular Divergence(RD+) between two Consecutive valleys .
🔔I expect AUDUSD will go UP at least to the Resistance line(2) .
Australian Dollar/U.S.Dollar Analyze ( AUDUSD ) 4-hour time frame⏰.
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AUD trader – a big CPI print puts RBA hikes back on the table Positioning
Clients are skewed long, with 63% of open interest is held looking for upside in AUDUSD.
In the broad market, the big flow desks report that hedge funds (leveraged players) are small net short of AUDs, while ‘real money’ (pension funds, insurance, asset managers) have a large net short AUD exposure.
Factors that could move the AUD?
• The RBA minutes have put the market on notice that RBA rate hikes could make a comeback – they detailed that slower progress to get to the inflation to target (2-3%) would not be viewed favourably, and they have a lower tolerance for inflation. Housing is a key focal point, with Australian city house prices gaining for 7 straight months – the RBA noted that they’re seeing higher unit labour cost growth, coming in a time of declining productivity, which they see as inflationary.
• Today’s speech by RBA gov Bullock didn’t see her push back on the markets view that the minutes were considered hawkish, and the Governor didn’t guide interest rate expectations lower – this offers rates traders real confidence in their pricing.
• What is priced? Aus 30-day interest rate futures now price a 34% chance of a hike at the 7 November RBA meeting and a 54% chance of a hike at the December meeting – the rates door is more than ajar.
• Next Wednesday’s Australia Q3 CPI (11:30 AEDT) is, therefore, a big-ticket event risk for AUD traders and could heavily influence rate pricing and therefore the AUD. It’s too early to see the consensus expectations for the trimmed mean CPI forecast, but headline CPI is expected to fall to around 5.2% YoY (from 6%) – recall, the RBA have forecast inflation at 4.25% by year-end, so an above consensus print could suggest the bank revise their forecasts higher. Anything above 5.4% should make the 7 Nov RBA meeting a live and pricing closer to 50%.
• An above consensus Q3 CPI read, and we would also see the market price a hike in the Dec meeting as a near-done deal – the AUD should like that.
• AUD bulls will want to see a higher Chinese equity market with the 10-day rolling correlation between the CSI300 index and AUDUSD at reasonable 0.54. While we see the PBoC pumping liquidity into the market, China/HK property stocks can't find a friend, and we eye a thoroughly expected default today from Country Garden, as they scramble to make a $15m coupon payment. AUD bulls need to see a far better tape in the China equity market to support vs the USD – the AUD crosses seem the better tactical play.
• While ongoing concerns around China’s property sector keeps international money managers from moving overweight the region, China’s economy has likely troughed and is improving – we saw that in today’s Q3 GDP print and high frequency data dump.
• Calls that the govt is prepared to blow out the deficit above 3% of GDP, by issuing $130b of new debt to fund infrastructure projects is a bullish consideration. However, the recent raft of mini-stimulus measures should start to be seen in the data flow. China’s economy should improve from here, although the property sector needs to be carefully monitored.
• While we watch for direction from China equity, we see Australia’s relative terms of trade (ToT) on the rise – while the sensitivity we see between the AUD and its ToT comes and goes, the fact we see it rising should support the AUD.
• With geopolitical issues very much front and centre, trading the AUD against other risk-associated crosses makes sense – the US economy still looks incredibly resilient vs G10 countries and a higher AUDUSD would require the VIX index to pull back below 14% and the S&P500 to climb higher (as well as China equity).
What’s the play?
The best AUD bullish expression of late has been against the NZD, given both are China proxies and we can see on the daily that the market shares this view – momentum studies show higher levels into 1.0850/1.0900 before we see better supply are favoured.
AUDJPY approaches the recent highs of 96.00 and I favour it to get there, but there are Japanese intervention risks with short JPY positions at this juncture. The JPY also looks attractive as a geopolitical hedge – that said, if the market feels the situation in the Middle East will be contained and FX vol falls further, then AUDJPY could benefit from carry and diverging central bank policies.
GBPAUD shorts have been my favoured play, and technically price is favoured lower - we do have UK CPI due out at 5 pm today and there are risks with being short GBP. Unless it’s a significant upside surprise (consensus 6.6% headline, 6% yoy core), then the BoE are on hold for an extended period.
AUDUSD Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring AUDUSD for a selling opportunity around 0.64100 zone, AUDUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.64100 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
GBPAUD: Breakout of support and dynamic trendlineWe've had a breakout of both support and descending dynamic trendline with no retest, which I'm expecting.
I can't see us retesting the dynamic trendline so considering shorts on the LTF's when we return to the resistance (formerly support) line.
Expecting Aussie strength and Pound weakness, we may go higher with the interest rate decision from the BoE this week (so if I'm in a trade I'll often pull out before the news or at least get the SL tighter as oscillation often reduces in the few hours before the news), so will be on guard for this, however I don't think we'll break back into the rising trend.
euraud sellprice rejected daily high level 1.67000 creating a double top pattern. price just closed below 1hr order block zone (white box) and is should do some order fills for the 4hr order block (grey boxes). im expecting price to head the the gold box which is the 0.5 0.618 retracement of the daily zone.
AUDUSD Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring AUDUSD for a selling opportunity around 0.63800 zone, AUDUSD was trading in an uptrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 0.63800 resistance zone.
Trade safe, Joe.
AUDCAD: Time to Short 🇦🇺🇨🇦
Here is a classic example of a top-down confirmation setup:
after a breakout of a key support on a daily, AUDCAD retested that.
The price was steadily growing within a bearish flag formation.
The text of structure triggered a strong bearish reaction
and the price violated a support of the flag.
It confirms the strength of the sellers and a highly probable bearish continuation.
Goals: 0.859 / 0.8576
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AUDNZD Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring AUDNZD for a selling opportunity around 1.07300 zone, AUDNZD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.07300 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
AUDUSD: Thoughts and AnalysisToday's focus: AUDUSD
Pattern – Support hold
Support – .6285
Resistance – .6425
Hi, and thanks for checking out today's update. Today, we are looking at the AUDUSD on the daily chart. Currently, we are watching price from 6285 support; if this level can hold and the USD continues to push lower, we will look for further upside from the AUDUSD. If buyers can get a mini run going, we see 6425 as the first resistance.
If sellers can break today's rally and move below support, this could set up a new leg lower that could test lower 6200 areas if seller momentum can get going.
Let's see if buyers can continue to hold 6285 support.
Good trading.
AUDCAD Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in tomorrow's trading session we are monitoring AUDCAD for a selling opportunity around 0.86300 zone, AUDCAD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.86300 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.