AUDCHF
AUDCHF Double Bottoms with a Bullish Breakout on Key LevelAUDCHF has recently formed a double bottom pattern, and we have now witnessed a bullish breakout confirmation on the key level or neckline. This breakout indicates a potential upward movement in price. As a result, we expect the bullish momentum to continue, driving the price towards the recent high formed around 0.619.
GBPCHF I Impulse correction and continuationWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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RBA surprise and China uplift; The AUD nirvana backdropThe RBA has now ‘surprised’ the market with 2 back-to-back rate hikes, which were both priced at a 30% probability or below. Essentially, the RBA has injected a level of policy uncertainty greater than any other G10 central bank.
We also see its hawkish forward guidance maintained with “some further tightening of monetary policy may be required”. So, the question is how much pain the Aussie economy must endure before demand is sufficiently impacted to put inflation firmly on the path to target.
AUD supported by a confluence of factors
One of the beneficiaries of the RBAs hawkish guidance is the AUD, and it’s been on a roll – where the fundamentals have offered an almost perfect storm for AUD appreciation.
We’ve seen iron ore futures +17% since the 26 May lows and copper has lifted from $3.54p/lb. to $3.77 p/lb. The HK50 index was in a bear market but has now rallied 7% off the lows. A reversal and a stronger yuan would have been helpful (for AUD longs) but we’ve seen USDCNH pushing higher and looking for a break of 7.1500.
On the rates front we see interest rate differentials also a factor in AUD appreciation, and while we can see some uplift in market expectations for the immediate months ahead, it’s the aggression by which the market has repriced cuts over the next two years that have really hit home.
Looking at the pricing of 2-year forward rates we see that while expectations of near-term hikes have increased, it’s the level of expected rate cuts has been more aggressively priced out of the Aussie rates market that have been at play.
For example, on 26 April the central case of the market was that the RBAs cash rate would be 128bp (5 cuts) lower this time in 2 years. The re-pricing has taken the level of expected cuts over the next 2 years to just 34bp.
Rate cuts have also been walked back in other G10 countries, as we see below. However, when we contrast Aus 2yr forward rates to that of USD, EUR, NZD, and GBP (see below - in order), we see just how aggressive this move has been on a relative basis. This has proven to be a real tailwind for the AUD.
Moves in ASX200 equity; shorting banks has worked well
If the move-in rates are a tailwind for the AUD, it has been problematic and a sizeable headwind for the interest rate-sensitive parts of the Australian equity market.
Shorting Aussie banks has worked well really since early February, where competition has had to intensify to attract deposits, while higher funding costs have promoted a war on mortgage pricing. Net interest margins are to decline consequently, and Westpac has already stated they have seen a rise in 30-day delinquencies.
While would-be buyers step away, the speculative fraction of market participants senses this and gets more traction shorting equities that are bear trending. Traders can operate banks tactically, either as part of a long/short approach or as an outright directional trade against lower net interest margins and earnings.
What comes next? Are rates still too low?
With the market now having discounted much of the expected future RBA policy setting, the question is what happens next for RBA policy. Can we get to a point where the market fully prices out cuts for the coming 2 years altogether?
Shorter-term, with 8bp of hikes priced for the July RBA meeting (a 32% chance of a hike), is this again priced too low? We see the peak RBA cash rate expectations of 4.34% by September, should this be priced closer to 4.6% maybe even 5%?
To answer this we will watch a combination of broad financial conditions, global economic trends, domestic auction clearance rates and anecdotes on credit demand. However, of the known data points, we look for:
• 13 June Westpac consumer confidence / NAB business confidence.
• 15 June - May employment report
• 28 June – May CPI report
• 29 June – Retail sales
• 3 July CoreLogic House price index
• 4 July – RBA meeting
• 26 July – Q2 CPI
• 15 August – Wage Price Index
For now, especially on the higher timeframes, the wind is to the AUD's back, and we see key technical breakouts vs GBP, EUR, and JPY, with AUDNZD having been on a one-way rampage. AUDCHF is eyeing a break of its range higher, having rallied from 0.5867, where a daily close could set the pair on for the double-bottom target of 0.6230.
The time for shorting the AUD (on the higher timeframes) will come soon enough, but until China turns lower and rates look fully priced the skew in risk that for more upside in the AUD.
Finally AUD/CHF Made A Reversal Pattern , When We Can Buy ?This Is An Educational + Analytic Content That Will Teach Why And How To Enter A Trade
Make Sure You Watch The Price Action Closely In Each Analysis As This Is A Very Important Part Of Our Method
Disclaimer : This Analysis Can Change At Anytime Without Notice And It Is Only For The Purpose Of Assisting Traders To Make Independent Investments Decisions.
AUD/CHF BEARISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| SHORT
Hello,Friends!
AUD-CHF uptrend evident from the last 1W green candle makes short trades more risky, but the current set-up targeting 0.585 area still presents a good opportunity for us to sell the pair because the resistance line is nearby and the BB upper band is close which indicates the overbought state of the AUD/CHF pair.
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AUDCHF Is Bearish! Sell!
Take a look at our analysis for AUDCHF.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 0.589.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 0.577 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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AUDCHF Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in tomorrow's trading session we are monitoring AUDCHF for a selling opportunity around 0.59250 zone, AUDCHF is trading in a downtrend and currently seems to be in a correction phase in which it is approaching the major trend at 0.59250 support and resistance zone.
Trade safe, Joe.
AUD/CHF Will Explode! BUY!
My dear friends ,
My technical analysis for AUD/CHF is below:
The market is trading on 0.58943 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 0.59411
About Used Indicators:
The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AUD/CHF Volume areas 📊On AUD/CHF is nice to see strong buying reaction from the price 0.5948, there is nice to see strong volume area....
Where is lot of contract accumulated...
I thing that buyers from this area will be defend this long position...
and when the price come back to this area, strong buyers will be push up the market again...
Rejection of lower prices + Volume cluster are my mainly reason for this long trade....
Happy trading
Dale
Aud/Chf Buy Idea Is Still ValidIm holding a buy in Aud/Chf
We had a double bottom reversal pattern.
Then we had a swing high.
The We had a Retracement...
And After the retracement we are in consolidation / accumulation...
And When This is over I am expecting a Explosive Move Up!!!
Please Enjoy and if your still holding from before... Keep holding the trade...
AUDCHF Will Go Lower! Sell!
Take a look at our analysis for AUDCHF.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 0.594.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve0.590 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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AUDCHF ____ BULLISH EXPANSION IMMINENTHi Traders,
I just placed a buy-limit order on AUDCHF. It formed a buy-side liquidity pool that needs to be swept. This is one pattern I have noticed in the market for a long time. In this case, I expect it to play out for a few reasons I will list out.
1. On the monthly timeframe, we dumped into a key level now a retracement in at play
2. On the weekly timeframe, we have a weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG) to fill as marked on my chart
3. On the daily timeframe, the price created equal highs as I have marked on my chart which is just below the weekly FVG
The above reasons drive me to speculate about this rally.
This is not financial advice... It is just the trade I placed.
If you have any comments about my analysis or forex in general, let me know.
Enjoy
David
AUDCHF ready to turn up first time since Jan 2023Inv H and S is forming on the AUD/CHF.
We are seeing signs the market is ready to turn up.
1st with the Rising lows.
2nd the 7 is about to cross the 21MA.
3rd, the price is looking up to head back to 200MA.
4th RSI turned positive and has made higher lows.
Looks good for upside. We just need one good break up out of the downtrend and we good to go.
Target 0.6474