AUDCHF Trade this rejection or break-outThe AUDCHF pair is now on its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) having rebounding on the 1-year Support Zone. Even though the multi-year pattern is a Channel Down, we are low enough historically, having reached levels not seen since March 16 2020, that we may have to start considering a long-term reversal.
As such, our trading plan is focused on a potential rejection or bullish break-out. Short near the top of the Channel Down for a potential Lower Highs trend-line rejection and target 0.56000 (Support Zone). If however the price breaks above the Lower Highs trend-line, take the loss on the short and buy, targeting the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) at 0.63000.
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Audchfsignals
AUDCHF BUY TF H4 TP = 0.5913On the H4 chart the trend started on Aug. 06 (linear regression channel).
There is a high probability of profit taking. Possible take profit level is 0.5913
Using a trailing stop is also a good idea!
Please leave your feedback, your opinion. I am very interested in it. Thank you!
Good luck!
Regards, WeBelievelnTrading
AUDCHF Channel Up intact. This pull-back is a buy opportunity.The AUDCHF pair is on the 3rd straight day of a strong short-term pull-back and just touched the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in almost 3 weeks. The long-term bullish trend remains intact though as the dominant structure is a 7-month Channel Up.
As long as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) holds, we will remain bullish, targeting 0.62250 (+6.20% Bullish Leg, similar to the previous two).
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AUDCHF Bottom of Channel Up. Buy opportunity.The AUDCHF pair gave us a solid sell signal last time (April 05, see chart below) but then broke above and established a Channel Up:
The price is now at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of that Channel Up, below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), calling for a short-term buy amidst the start of the next Bullish Leg. On top of that, the RSI is approaching its 1-year Support Zone, which every time it was touched, the price rallied by at least +4.50%.
As a result, we remain bullish as long as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is intact and attempt a first buy now, targeting 0.61750 (+4.50%).
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AUDCHF - Potential Bullish OpportunityThe AUD/CHF currency pair has recently exhibited notable price action, presenting an opportunity for technical analysis. Employing harmonic pattern recognition and key support levels, this report aims to outline potential bullish movements and associated trade parameters.
Harmonic Pattern Formation:
A Harmonic Pattern (XABCD) has emerged within the AUD/CHF pair, signaling a potential reversal from the prevailing bearish sentiment. This pattern, identified at a crucial support area, suggests an imminent bullish trajectory.
Key Support Area:
The formation of the Harmonic Pattern coincides with a significant support level, adding credence to the potential bullish outlook. This confluence strengthens the likelihood of a reversal and subsequent upward movement in price.
Technical Entry Strategy:
Entry: Consider initiating a long position near 0.58778, strategically positioned to capitalize on the anticipated bullish momentum.
Stop Loss: Implement a stop loss order at approximately 0.58274 to mitigate potential downside risk and preserve capital in the event of adverse price movements.
Profit Targets:
Target 1 (TP-1): Set the initial profit target at 0.59293, aligning with the expected bullish move following confirmation of the pattern.
Target 2 (TP-2): Establish a secondary profit target at 0.59794, aiming to capitalize further on the anticipated upward price trajectory.
Trade Management:
As with any trade, it is essential to remain vigilant and adapt to evolving market conditions. Monitor price action closely, particularly the breakout of the bearish 4-hour trendline, as confirmation of this breakout will validate the bullish bias and support trade execution.
Conclusion:
In summary, the AUD/CHF currency pair presents a compelling opportunity for bullish movement, supported by the formation of a Harmonic Pattern at a key support area. By adhering to the specified entry, stop loss, and profit target levels, traders can effectively capitalize on the anticipated upward price momentum while managing risk appropriately.
*Note: Trading involves inherent risks, and it is recommended to conduct thorough analysis and exercise prudent risk management strategies.*
AUDCHF 1D Golden Cross signaling a decline. Best sell in market.The AUDCHF pair has just formed a Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame but even though it is theoretically a bullish structure, it hasn't historically behaved as such for this pair. We view its effect on the 1W time-frame in order to go as back in time as possible and get conclusions.
In the past 10 years (since the May 2014 1D Golden Cross, which was bullish) there have been 5 such formations, all of which made the pair peak either before or on the Cross and delivered a Lower Low, in some instances even with brutal sell-offs.
In the last 2 occurrences, the 1D Golden Cross started Channel Down declines that both hit at least the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) again before any trend change. As a result, we comfortably turn bearish now on AUDCHF, targeting the 1D MA200 by August.
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AUDCHF Triangle waiting for the break-out.The AUDCHF pair is trading within a Triangle pattern since August with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) acting as the Resistance, having consecutive near rejections in December. If that breaks, we expect an aggressive bullish run towards Resistance 2, despite the presence of Resistance (0.952625). In that case, we will buy the break-out and target 0.61500 (just below Resistance 2).
If however the Triangle breaks downwards first, we will wait until the price breaks below Support 1 (0.560685) and target 0.54000 (-9.09% from the recent high, which was a standard decline in 2023). This scenario is quite likely to take place as the 1D RSI has been trading within a Channel Down, showcasing a Bearish Divergence.
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AUDCHF On the verge of a strong move.The AUDCHF pair has been trading within a Channel Down since February's High and currently sits just below its top (Lower Highs trend-line). Having formed a 1D MA50/ 100 Bullish Cross and tests the Lower Highs for the 3rd time in 2 months, it is highly likely to finally break the bearish trend upwards. We will only buy though above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and aim towards Resistance 1 at 0.61500. Until this break-out, we will follow the long-term bearish Channel Down and short aiming at 0.53500 (-9.09% similar to the two previous bearish sequences).
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AUDCHF ____ INCOMING BEARISH MOVEHello Guy,
It's another trading week and I want to share my view on AUDCHF with you. Legggoooo!!!
If you take a look at the monthly timeframe, you will notice that price just reacted from a monthly orderblock.
If you drop down to the weekly timeframe, you will notice that price had created a bearish CHOCH and has retraced to the weekly supply OB from which we can expect a bearish continuation. You may also notice that we are currently at the neckline of the M pattern on the weekly chart.
On the daily chart, you will notice how price just took out a strong supply zone which caused a strong drop in price. You can also notice the W pattern and we should expect a retracement.
Now, I am monitoring price movement in the 1-hour timeframe to see if I can get my trade setup to go short.
Endeavor to keep this pair on your radar.
Follow for more updates like this.
Cheers.
Jabari
AUDCHF: 18/10/2023:🔴Sell opportunity
Well, you can see important supply zone ond bearish order block on the chart.
In these zones we can search for a low time frame confirmation.
Please pay attention to the details.
💡Wait for the update!
🗓18/10/2023
🔎 DYOR
💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌
AUDCHF Hit our bullish target. Now time to sell the Channel DownThe AUDCHF pair has hit the 0.58200 target (0.382 Fibonacci level) we set on our last buy call (see idea below) and is resting today at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down pattern since the January 27 2023 High:
The price price is now on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and just below the 0.5 Fibonacci level. There is also a chance that the dotted Channel Down will be materialized, so the technical Lower High max extension is a little higher. The sell confirmation typically comes when the 1D MACD makes a Bearish Cross. Our target is a potential -9.10% extension at 0.54000.
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AUDCHF Buy signal within the Channel Down.The AUDCHF pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the January 27 2023 High. The price is currently on a 2-week rise and following the completion of a 1D MACD Bullish Cross, it can extend to at least the 0.382 Fibonacci level based on the previous two Lower Lows of the Channel Down. As a result, we are targeting 0.58200, which would also make a technical contact with the 1D MA100 (green trend-line).
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AUDCHF Short-term Buy SignalThe AUDCHF pair reached the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the 2-year Channel Down pattern and rebounded, testing now the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Then that 1D MA50 test took place after the RSI on the 1W time-frame rebounded on its Support Zone, all three times the price hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). This can happen a little quicker at 0.62000 or slower at 0.61500. Choose the appropriate target depending on the course of the price action.
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AUDCHF Consider this buy break-out signalThe AUDCHF pair hit yesterday its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since September 05 2022. The key on the current price action is the weekly (1W) closing. In September it failed to close a 1W candle above the 1D MA200 and naturally it got rejected to the bottom the long-term Channel Down that it has been trading in since mid 2021.
The current sequence is quite similar to the July 2021 - March 2022 fractal. The pair failed to close a week above the 1D MA200 during October 2021 and dropped back to the bottom of the Channel Down. In early March 2022 though, on the new 1D MA200 test, it succeeded at closing a week above it and the price soared eventually to the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down, just above the 1.236 Fibonacci extension level, completing a +10.60% rise.
So naturally if we get that weekly closing above the 1D MA200 now, probabilities are with us to buy and target 0.6800, whihc is slightly below a +10.60 extension and the 1.236 Fib. As long as the price closes below it though, it remains a sell opportunity, towards at least the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on the short-term.
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AUDCHF - Break or channelThe pair has been trading in ascending channel, but currently from the 1HTF Perspective price is forming Lower highs and lower lows which is an indication of change in the preceding trend. Expecting the break of channel ,then a Retest or a possible continuation pattern for the move to the downside.
AUDCHF Inverse Head and Shoulders targeting the 1D MA200The AUDCHF pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since February 25 2021 High. At the moment, it is below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) but appears to have completed an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern that is a technical formation typically found on market bottoms.
In fact, with the RSI on the 1W double bottoming and rebounding, the current pattern resembles the IH&S of the August 20 201 bottom. As you see, that pattern also trading the Right Shoulder around the 1D MA50 and then rebounded and hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). We expect the 1D MA200 to get hit once more before a pull-back and is currently our medium-term target.
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AUDCHF Strongest buy opportunity of 2022-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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The AUDCHF pair is approaching the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the Channel Down pattern that it has been trading in since the February 25 2021 High. Last time it did was on December 03 2021. At the same time, the 1W RSI hit its 1 year Support Zone, where it is close to doing so again today.
On a long-term horizon, this is the most optimal buy entry. We can target the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on the short-term (as it happened on Jan 10 2022) and the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down, if we close a candle above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
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AUDCHF On the verge of a break-outThe AUDCHF pair seems to be repeating the October 2021 - January 2022 fractal both on candle and RSI terms on the 1D time-frame (both recording a -7.50% decline). The price has been closing below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since June 15. A break above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) would be a bullish break-out signal, targeting the Lower Highs trend-line and (under conditions that we will analyze when the time comes), the 1.236 Fibonacci extension.
On the other hand, a break below 0.6500 (just below the July 01 low), would be a bearish break-out signal towards the 2.0 Fib lower extension (0.63000).
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AUDCHF Emerging Death Cross can push it back to 0.6513.The AUDCHF pair is seeing a short-term rebound following the July 01 Low and is approaching the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). It has been trading below the latter since June 16 and the former since June 17.
The emerging Death Cross formation (when the MA50 crosses below the MA200) can put a stop to this short-term recovery and push the price to a new Low just like the last 1D Death Cross did a year ago, on July 28 2021. A 1D candle close above the 1D MA50 invalidates the Death Cross and targets the Lower Highs trend-line.
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AUDCHF Neutral for the summer, bullish break-out end-of-yearThe AUDCHF pair has been neutral since the start of April following our plan with great consistency, as outlined on our last analysis:
As you see, the price has been trading inside that box as the June - September 2020 fractal suggested. This time, we also have the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) that provides support. The 1D MACD shows that we are at a point where one last pull-back is possible before the pattern breaks to the upside. We keep scalping this formation until 0.7100 breaks, which will be a bullish break-out call aimed at 0.726500 and (under circumstances which we will update) the 1.236 Fibonacci extension at 0.746560.
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