Aussie Dollar expected to fatten against the China Yuan
The Australia / China economic dependency & reliance runs almost as deep as Australia's ongoing and upbeat relationship with the USA.
Australia is where it is in only 300 years of white settlement because of its strong resources sector and China is one of its biggest consumers.
Recent stimulus to prop-up a failing economy the past few years in China should restore this ying-yang existence and a secured one for the 2 nations over the next little while.
Technically, you can see the path of the 2 currency's on the weekly chart. On the weekly it looks to be a tight consolidated range which will only serve to aid its breakout soon before traders are aware and its too late to buy the Oze at the better price.
AUDCNH
$AUDUSD: Both the dollar and Yuan pair are bullish...Historically, signals happening in both pairs suggest a good outcome for long trades in the Aussie dollar. I've caught a move before, when a weekly trend was expiring on the downside in $AUDCNH, and we rode a few nice moves up in $AUDJPY and $AUDUSD then. We now have a second chance at a similar juncture, while also the $DXY is at the end of a weekly uptrend in time, and sitting below the target it recently hit, which is right into a long term resistance level from the quarterly chart, so odds for people fading the dollar against strong currencies are above average currently. I'm long $GBPUSD, adding $AUDUSD to my short dollar basket in my FX account.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
ridethepig | Flash Crash In Play For AUDCNH !!A major breakdown ahead of the open as markets catch up to the virus disruptions. AUD and global trade are set to suffer for sometime, it will take a brave man to step against this flow.
On the monetary side, RBA tee'd up a rate cut in April with another in Q3 on the cards. Housing has already done the heavy lifting, will need A LOT more help from elsewhere to create a positive outlook in the near-term for AUD. PBOC in a 'whatever it takes' moment with the printer starting to overheat.
On the technicals, the doldrum 4.7-4.9 range remained intact throughout 2019. Since the new decade we have broken the lower end in the range via coronavirus trigger, a screaming warning for what is cooking globally. We are sitting at key support 4.5 which needs to hold otherwise we have a flash crash in play towards 4.3 - 4.25. Unless buyers step in quickly we are set to lose support on panic. Continue to sell weakness if we lose support.
For those tracking USDCNH :
For those tracking EURCNH :
Lastly, for those tracking Chinese Equities :
Best of luck all those in CNH, risks come from further PBOC intervention although looks like they ran out of time! Thanks all for keeping the likes, comments and charts coming!
AUDCNH - quick shortLike to switch to line chart from time to time. As shown below, I expect it to continue after this sharp bounce to that bolder white horizontal line (these lines are daily high/low wicks from the past).
Disclaimer: this idea is solely for my own purposes, to satisfy the ego, if it will work out ;)
AUD/CNH - wave 4 down to catch wave 5 upI missed the wave 1 up believing that the previous 5 wave down still had some way to go. I missed the current wave 3 up, but want to catch wave 5 up.
Based on fib levels and laying a Schiff pitchfork, there should be a wave 4 down. However, my current trading rules are I only trade when I get a clear cross-over on Stochastics.
I may therefore miss Wave 5 up simply because stochastics will not cross below 20%? Any recommendations from seasoned traders if I have conviction on trading patterns? Any other indicators (MACD?) that would help?