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AUDJPY

AUDJPY - Long Story SHORT !Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. on Weekly: Left Chart AUDJPY has been stuck inside a big range and it is currently hovering around the upper bound / resistance zone in green. on H1: Right Chart For the bears to take over, and activate our sell setup, we need a break below the last low highlighted in gray. Meanwhile, AUDJPY would be bullish and can still trade higher inside the weekly resistance 97.0 - 98.0 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
Short
by TheSignalyst
4
AUDJPY Buy the pull-back.The AUDJPY pair is trading within a Channel Up pattern that is currently rising on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). A recently formed Bullish Cross on the 1D MA50, calls for a potential short-term pull-back similar to the August 24 MACD Bullish Cross. We will wait for that opportunity near the 1D MA200 and buy, targeting Resistance 1 at 97.675. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
RBA meeting playbook – a 25bp hike is the call Having been on hold since June the RBA should hike by 25bp to get the cash rate to 4.35%. We see a 60% chance of a hike priced into interest rate futures, with the market having a high conviction that if they don’t hike next week then they will almost certainly in December. 21 of 24 economists (surveyed by Bloomberg) are calling for the hike. The doves do have a case for the RBA keeping rates on hold, but the case to hike seems stronger., with Aussie economic data consistently beating expectations since early October. This should culminate in the RBA increasing its inflation forecasts for Dec-23 and June-24 by 25bp, with its trimmed mean CPI estimate likely revised higher by around 50bp. Given Q2 GDP came in 50bp above the RBA’s forecasts we should see its growth measures increase as well. One can argue that leaving rates on hold would risk the bank being seen as getting behind the inflation curve, and we can see market pricing of 5-year inflation expectations rising to 2.81% - approaching the highest levels since 2011. Some have also focused on Treasurer Jim Chalmers recent comments that the Q3 CPI print did not represent a “material” worsening in the inflation outlook, and by leaving rates on hold it could be seen as a sign of reduced central bank independence. The RBA to review the stress on households We can look ahead to the upcoming bank earnings reports with WBC (6 Nov), NAB (9 Nov) and ANZ (13 Nov) and review their asset quality given lending rates have increased so rapidly. In the prior trading updates, there was no clear evidence that borrowers were facing broad difficulties. In fact, projections that total scheduled P&I payments will push to 9.75% of household disposable income in 2024, suggest servicing this debt is still manageable. We also see over 40% of households are ahead on mortgage payments and have enough savings to cushion a further increase. In terms of volumes, APRA’s September lending data showed total gross loans and advances grew 0.7% m/m in September, with household lending growth +0.3% m/m and business growth +1.2% m/m. Credit card volumes increased 1.2%. And with house prices still on the rise, these are factors that will lean the RBA towards a hike. The RBA will be cognisant of the impact a further lift in the cash rate will have on households and businesses – but while some will be negatively impacted and undergo real stress, on the whole borrowers should be able to readily absorb more hikes. Trading the RBA meeting Given market expectations and pricing, should the RBA leave rates on hold but retain a hawkish bias, then we should see the AUDUSD drop 50 pips or so off the bat, with a solid rally likely seen in the AUS200. With the base case being we see a 25bp hike while maintaining a tightening bias, then all things being equal the AUD should find good buyers, with AUDUSD spiking 30-40 pips. AUDNZD has been the most sensitive to interest rate differentials, as we see here in the AUS-NZ 2-year forward rate differentials. If the RBA hike and imply more then AUDNZD should break the recent highs of 1.0940. In fact, on a simple rates model the AUDNZD cross should be trading closer to 1.1050. AUDUSD is more of a risk proxy than a rates play, taking direction from S&P500 futures and the HK50 index, but the setup is looking more compelling for longs. I prefer to play this from a momentum standpoint and wait for the close above 0.6445, for a potential move into 0.6600. EURAUD, AUDCHF and AUDJPY are also risk proxies and have a good relationship with the VIX index. Granted, if the RBA hikes, then we will likely see a pop in the AUD, but after a short period traders will revert to taking its direction from S&P500 futures and cross-asset volatility. Looking at AUD 1-week implied (option) volatility (vol) we see vols are not showing any real signs option market makers are expecting a significant change in the trading conditions next week. That said, given the split pricing for Tuesday, we could see some rapid-fire moves around the announcement and that is a risk traders need to manage.
Long
by Pepperstone
AUDJPY Technical Analysis And Trade IdeaIn this video, we offer an in-depth analysis of the AUDJPY currency pair, with a primary focus on the prevailing bullish price swing evident on the 1D and 1W timeframes. Notably, the pair is approaching a critical resistance level, suggesting the possibility of a retracement. Throughout our discussion, we delve deep into the intricate aspects of technical analysis, covering the prevailing market trend, price dynamics, market structure, and other key elements essential to effective technical analysis. As we progress through the video, we will explore a potential trading opportunity in greater depth. It's crucial to underscore that the content shared in this video is intended purely for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is paramount to acknowledge that participating in forex trading carries a significant level of risk. Therefore, it is imperative to prudently incorporate robust risk management strategies into your trading plan.
Long
by fxtraderanthony
Trade Idea AUDJPY Short📉 Trade Idea: #AUDJPY Short 📉 📌 Entry: Sell Stop @ 95.53 🛑 Stop Loss: 94.154 🎯 Take Profit 1: 94.914 🎯 Take Profit 2: 94.291 🧐 Trade Analysis: - 📊 1-Hour Divergence: A bearish divergence signals potential downside. - 🔄 Inverted Head and Shoulders: This pattern often indicates a reversal to the downside. - 📈 4-Hour Range: The pair is currently ranging, offering a potential trading opportunity. 📚 Educational Insights: 1️⃣ A bearish divergence occurs when the price is rising while the indicator (e.g., RSI or MACD) is falling, suggesting a potential reversal. 2️⃣ Inverted Head and Shoulders is a bullish reversal pattern, but when it appears in a downtrend, it may signal a bearish reversal. 3️⃣ Ranging markets provide opportunities for traders to profit from price fluctuations within a specific range. 📊 Remember to manage your risk and use proper position sizing. #TradingTips 💡 📢 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own discretion and risk management. #ForexTrading #TechnicalAnalysis 📈💹
Short
by T-Q
1
AJ – LOOK FOR SELL ENTRY ??Hi Friends! Let’s analyses this pair from multi time frame. JXY Weekly : Japanese Yen Index is getting rejection at Weekly support and moving upside. Meaning, Ttere will be a SELL presure for all JPY related pair H1 : AJ H1 is re-testing order block/supply zone. Let’s monitor price action and look for sell Just remember to manage your capital while trading. No matter how perfect your trading system is, the way you manage your risk is the key to be a consistent trader. FX:AUDJPY OANDA:AUDJPY FOREXCOM:AUDJPY
Short
by Trading_Zone_3773
1
AUDJPY: Big week for JPY Yen this weekThere's talk of the BoJ lifting the limit on yields to 1.5% from 1% this week, which would be a very strong catalyst for the Yen to start showing some strength. We can see that this pair does not have any direction at the moment, trading in a flag pattern, but I don't see this as either bullish or bearish at the moment. I'm not sure how or when or if to trade this but monitoring, my idea is based on BoJ protecting its currency generally, I am seeing the Aussie getting stronger so think we'll go up before coming back down, let's see...
Short
by Finchcliffe
AUDJPY BUY | Day Trading Analysis With Volume ProfileHello Traders, here is the full analysis. Watch strong action at the current levels for BUY . GOOD LUCK! Great BUY opportunity AUDJPY I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment. Support the idea with like and follow my profile TO SEE MORE. Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 🤝 Patience is the If You Have Any Question, Feel Free To Ask 🤗 Just follow chart with idea and analysis and when you are ready come in THE GROVE | VIP GROUP, earn more and safe, wait for the signal at the right moment and make money with us💰
Long
by TheGrove
6
AUDJPY H4 | Resistance overhead?AUDJPY is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse to drop lower towards our take profit target. Entry: 95.583 Why we like it: There is a swing-high resistance level Stop Loss: 96.065 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level Take Profit: 94.410 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
AUDJPY H4 | Falling to pullback supportAUD/JPY is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 94.412 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection level. Stop loss is at 93.900 which is a level that sits under a swing-low support and the 78.6% Fibonacci projection level. Take profit is at 95.165 which is a pullback resistance level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
AUDJPY Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance ) Risk Disclaimer: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
Long
by ShahedZare
AUDJPY Solid short signal.AUDJPY is on a 1-2-3 pattern like the one in July, currently on the 3rd led down. This is basically resembling Descending Triangle pattern. One last bearish leg to give before it breaks upwards. Trading Plan: 1. Sell on the current market price. Targets: 1. 94.000 (Support A). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) patterns between the two sequences are also similar both inside Channel Down formations. This also points to a bearish leg next. Please like, follow and comment!!
Short
by TradingBrokersView
AUDJPY - 4hrs ( Sell Trade Target Range 150 PIP )Pair Name : AUD/JPY 🗨Time Frame : 4hrs Chart / Close ➕Scale Type : Large Scale ------ 🗒 spreading knowledge among us and to clarify the most important points of entry, exit and entry with more than 5 reasons We seek to spread understanding rather than make money ✔️ Key Technical / Direction ( ❗️ short ) Type : Mid Term Swing —————————— 🏳️Bearish Retest 0.95100 Area Reasons - Major Turn level / M - Visible Range Value - inner Choch - Day / week low 🏳️Bullish Reversal 93.600 Area Reasons - Major Turn level / D - Patter Target - Trend Line area - Visible Range Poc / HVn - Fibo Golden - Month Low
Short
by GentleGoldenEngine
AUD trader – a big CPI print puts RBA hikes back on the table Positioning Clients are skewed long, with 63% of open interest is held looking for upside in AUDUSD. In the broad market, the big flow desks report that hedge funds (leveraged players) are small net short of AUDs, while ‘real money’ (pension funds, insurance, asset managers) have a large net short AUD exposure. Factors that could move the AUD? • The RBA minutes have put the market on notice that RBA rate hikes could make a comeback – they detailed that slower progress to get to the inflation to target (2-3%) would not be viewed favourably, and they have a lower tolerance for inflation. Housing is a key focal point, with Australian city house prices gaining for 7 straight months – the RBA noted that they’re seeing higher unit labour cost growth, coming in a time of declining productivity, which they see as inflationary. • Today’s speech by RBA gov Bullock didn’t see her push back on the markets view that the minutes were considered hawkish, and the Governor didn’t guide interest rate expectations lower – this offers rates traders real confidence in their pricing. • What is priced? Aus 30-day interest rate futures now price a 34% chance of a hike at the 7 November RBA meeting and a 54% chance of a hike at the December meeting – the rates door is more than ajar. • Next Wednesday’s Australia Q3 CPI (11:30 AEDT) is, therefore, a big-ticket event risk for AUD traders and could heavily influence rate pricing and therefore the AUD. It’s too early to see the consensus expectations for the trimmed mean CPI forecast, but headline CPI is expected to fall to around 5.2% YoY (from 6%) – recall, the RBA have forecast inflation at 4.25% by year-end, so an above consensus print could suggest the bank revise their forecasts higher. Anything above 5.4% should make the 7 Nov RBA meeting a live and pricing closer to 50%. • An above consensus Q3 CPI read, and we would also see the market price a hike in the Dec meeting as a near-done deal – the AUD should like that. • AUD bulls will want to see a higher Chinese equity market with the 10-day rolling correlation between the CSI300 index and AUDUSD at reasonable 0.54. While we see the PBoC pumping liquidity into the market, China/HK property stocks can't find a friend, and we eye a thoroughly expected default today from Country Garden, as they scramble to make a $15m coupon payment. AUD bulls need to see a far better tape in the China equity market to support vs the USD – the AUD crosses seem the better tactical play. • While ongoing concerns around China’s property sector keeps international money managers from moving overweight the region, China’s economy has likely troughed and is improving – we saw that in today’s Q3 GDP print and high frequency data dump. • Calls that the govt is prepared to blow out the deficit above 3% of GDP, by issuing $130b of new debt to fund infrastructure projects is a bullish consideration. However, the recent raft of mini-stimulus measures should start to be seen in the data flow. China’s economy should improve from here, although the property sector needs to be carefully monitored. • While we watch for direction from China equity, we see Australia’s relative terms of trade (ToT) on the rise – while the sensitivity we see between the AUD and its ToT comes and goes, the fact we see it rising should support the AUD. • With geopolitical issues very much front and centre, trading the AUD against other risk-associated crosses makes sense – the US economy still looks incredibly resilient vs G10 countries and a higher AUDUSD would require the VIX index to pull back below 14% and the S&P500 to climb higher (as well as China equity). What’s the play? The best AUD bullish expression of late has been against the NZD, given both are China proxies and we can see on the daily that the market shares this view – momentum studies show higher levels into 1.0850/1.0900 before we see better supply are favoured. AUDJPY approaches the recent highs of 96.00 and I favour it to get there, but there are Japanese intervention risks with short JPY positions at this juncture. The JPY also looks attractive as a geopolitical hedge – that said, if the market feels the situation in the Middle East will be contained and FX vol falls further, then AUDJPY could benefit from carry and diverging central bank policies. GBPAUD shorts have been my favoured play, and technically price is favoured lower - we do have UK CPI due out at 5 pm today and there are risks with being short GBP. Unless it’s a significant upside surprise (consensus 6.6% headline, 6% yoy core), then the BoE are on hold for an extended period.
Long
by Pepperstone