AUDJPY - Change of character ✅Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on AUDJPY.
Technical analysis: Here we can see that price changed the character, in order to validate bullish market structure, I expect price to make a retracement to fill the imbalance lower and then to reject from bullish order block to create a new high.
Fundamental analysis: On Thursday we have news on AUD, will be released Unemployment Rate. Pay attention to the results in order to validate the analysis.
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AUDJPY
AUDJPY: Target 1 achieved! ...and now?Our last setup was correct, the FX:AUDJPY pair completed the harmonic structure and subsequently reached our Target 1 around 93.95. Having said that, on the 1H chart we have resistance around 94.45 (swing) and then 94.95 (Target 2), and from one of these areas the pair could trigger a pullback. Unfortunately, I don't have a clear short signal at the moment, so I am waiting for some Reversal or Continuation Pattern to form.
Below, you can study and analyze our latest bullish setup:
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QQQ | EU | AJ | BTC | DECRYPTERS Hi welcome to Team Decrypters
Here is our Analysis of 4 pairs On how we are expecting the market to Move
1 - BITCOIN
2- NASDAQ
3- AUDJPY
4 - EUR USD
THIS IS OVER AL LBIAS ONLY WE TRADE WHEN THERE WILL BE SETUP , ITS ONLY TO BE TAKEN AS TRADING PLANS
1- NASDAQ is on good level to sell
2- AUDJPY Good levels to Sell
3- Bitcoins good levels to Sell is Near 27k ( US is coming Hard on crypto , Time for the End of Bear market Rally )
4- Aud jpy we wait for this pair to give us Trade ( JPY MONETRY policy will soon be in Favor of currency thats our chance to Enter )
Personal View :- Plz refer to last post description about FED and its Relation to Nasdaq , I Really Think we will go Down but some More Damage is Needed First
I Even Think we will see Crash on NASDAQ sooner or later
#AUDJPY- 700 PIPS SETUP!Hey Everyone, AUDJPY will be seeing a strong reversal in coming days. waiting for price to continue the bullish trend until it reaches area where we will be seeing a strong reversal which marked as 'imbalance zone'. Let's not miss out on this one time opportunity.
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AUDJPY: Bullish Divergence, Will It Go Even Further to 93.800?Hi Fellow Forex Trader, Here's a Technical outlook on Aussie Yen!
Price Action Analysis
AUDJPY has broken out of the Symmetrical Triangle Pattern. The MACD Indicator also made a golden cross and hidden divergence, indicating a possible upside momentum to the target area.
All other explanations are presented on the chart.
The roadmap will be invalid after reaching the target/support area.
Support the channel by smashing the rocket button and sharing your opinions in the comment below!
"Disclaimer: The outlook is only for educational purposes, not a recommendation to put a long or short position on the Aussie Yen"
AUDJPY is impending reversal SHORTOn the one-hour chart, AUDJPY is in the area of overhead resistance and the supply zone. Both
the zero-lag MACD is showing bearish divergence. The mass index indicator has already given
a reversal signal where mathematically the indicator goes over 27 and then triggers when
it crosses down on 26.5 This indicator often misses a reversal but seldomly generates false
signals. Japan has had rock-solid central bank actions and policies perhaps propping up the
currency value in comparison with others including the Australian dollar. Overall, I have
high confidence in a short leveraged forex trade of the pair at this time. The stop loss is
just above the red supply zone while the target is just above the POC line of the volume
profile yielding a trade with a reward for risk of over 20.
AUDNZD bounces down from the Overbought ZoneOn the 15 minute chart- the AUDNZD pair is shown to have encountered overhead horizontal
resistance by the Luxalgo indicator. It has been unable to get above the 2nd standard deviaion
line of the anchored VWAP and deflected downward. Price is now below the POC line of
the multisession volume profile. Overall, bearish bias is on the chart as confirmed by the
zero lag MACD with the lines crossing down on the horizontal zero line. I will trade an additional
short sell trade on this pair and review the strength of AUD as compared with EUR USD and
JPY for other trade possibilities. My target here is the underlying green zone of support and
demand.
Will JPY momentum carry forward and set off further selling?Today's focus: JPY AUDJPY GBPJPY
Pattern – Fade Resistance holds
Possible targets – AUDJPY 92.50/92.30 GBPJPY 173.39/172.95
Support – AUDJPY 92.30 GBPJPY 173.15
Resistance – AUDJPY 93.30 GBPJPY 174.20
Today’s update focuses on JPY strength, that we have seen picking up since yesterday’s US session. We have looked at the AUDJPY and GBPJPY in detail. Are we seeing a turn in momentum? Both of these markets showed strength in the short term or sit in uptrends.
After seeing the fades yesterday and today combined with resistance, could this be of sellers gaining control?
Thanks for stopping by. Good trading, and have a great day.
AUDJPY - FUNDAMENTAL + TECHNICAL BIAS#AUDJPY
These days, AUDJPY is slightly UP due to MARKET RISK ON. The reason for that was that the MARKET SENTIMENT was somewhat POSITIVE with FED UPDATES. JPY WEAK AFTER BOJ MEETING.
Because of that, XXXJPY CURRENCIES went UP very fast. It still has an effect. Anyway, they said that the BOJ MONETARY POLICY will be relaxed even more.
Therefore, after JPY becomes PRICE, XXXJPY PRICES may be UP in the future. Even now, we see that the MARKET is somewhat MARKET RISK ON. We expect AUDJPY to RETRACE to higher resistance. Anyway, if the AUDJPY goes upside down again, the VIX should go down and the JPY should go up, and STOCKS should go up. The dollar should continue to strengthen as it has in recent days.
AUDJPY can definitely SELL at 92.00 LEVEL. But somehow, after that, AUDJPY may go UP to 95.54 LEVEL. Anyway, if JPY becomes WEAK, if the UP SIDE STRUCTURE is BREAK, there is a very good situation to BUY AUDJPY.
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AUDJPY - Massive Breakdown Coming!AUDJPY setting up for a massive move lower. We are anticipating a move similar to wave W, which was over 1000pips.
We are currently in a WXY correction. We've almost completed wave X. Looking for a rejection around the 618 fibonacci level.
Trade Idea:
- Watch for rejection or lower timeframe trendline break for a risk entry
- For a safe entry, watch for a break of red trendline
- Stops above price after red trendline breaks
- Targets: 88 (600pips), 85 (900pips), 82.5 (1150pips)
Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
AUD/JPY continue with the Uptrend ☝️On AUD/JPY is nice to see strong buying reaction from the price 92.35 and 92.05, there is nice to see strong volume area....
Where is lot of contract accumulated...
I thing that buyers from this area will be defend this long position...
and when the price come back to this area, strong buyers will be push up the market again...
Uptrend + Volume cluster are my mainly reason for this long trade....
Happy trading
Dale
GBPJPY I It will keep growing Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** GBPJPY Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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Is AUDNZD due for a reversal?AUDNZD as shown on the 15- minute chart is rising after the Australian central bank raised its
prime rate in keeping up with another global tightening. Since May 24th AUDNZD has risen 4%
in various legs with some consolidation but no downturns. ADUNZD may be due for a correction.
IT is shown here on the 15-minute chart along with the "Alpha Trend" indicator, the zero lag
MACD indicator and the visible range volume profile. AUDNZD is above the POC line
showing bullish buying pressure to have pushed it higher. However, on the MACD, the K/ D lines
are setting up a cross over the histogram which typically is a sell signal. AUDNZED may hae
had a decent trend up but could now be getting ready for a "reversion to the mean"
Because of this I will watch AUDNZD as a candidate for a short trade perhaps with a
retracement of 2% ( 1/2 of the trend up) over a period of several days.
AUDJPY Double Sell SignalThe AUDJPY pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the October 21 2022 High. Supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), it not only entered yesterday the Resistance Zone of December 13, but also reached the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down.
This is a Double Sell signal and as long as candles close below it, we will be selling towards Support 1 and the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the Channel Down at 85.100. If a 1D candle closes above the Resistance Zone, we will continue buying for a short-while and target Resistance 2 (95.750).
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RBA surprise and China uplift; The AUD nirvana backdropThe RBA has now ‘surprised’ the market with 2 back-to-back rate hikes, which were both priced at a 30% probability or below. Essentially, the RBA has injected a level of policy uncertainty greater than any other G10 central bank.
We also see its hawkish forward guidance maintained with “some further tightening of monetary policy may be required”. So, the question is how much pain the Aussie economy must endure before demand is sufficiently impacted to put inflation firmly on the path to target.
AUD supported by a confluence of factors
One of the beneficiaries of the RBAs hawkish guidance is the AUD, and it’s been on a roll – where the fundamentals have offered an almost perfect storm for AUD appreciation.
We’ve seen iron ore futures +17% since the 26 May lows and copper has lifted from $3.54p/lb. to $3.77 p/lb. The HK50 index was in a bear market but has now rallied 7% off the lows. A reversal and a stronger yuan would have been helpful (for AUD longs) but we’ve seen USDCNH pushing higher and looking for a break of 7.1500.
On the rates front we see interest rate differentials also a factor in AUD appreciation, and while we can see some uplift in market expectations for the immediate months ahead, it’s the aggression by which the market has repriced cuts over the next two years that have really hit home.
Looking at the pricing of 2-year forward rates we see that while expectations of near-term hikes have increased, it’s the level of expected rate cuts has been more aggressively priced out of the Aussie rates market that have been at play.
For example, on 26 April the central case of the market was that the RBAs cash rate would be 128bp (5 cuts) lower this time in 2 years. The re-pricing has taken the level of expected cuts over the next 2 years to just 34bp.
Rate cuts have also been walked back in other G10 countries, as we see below. However, when we contrast Aus 2yr forward rates to that of USD, EUR, NZD, and GBP (see below - in order), we see just how aggressive this move has been on a relative basis. This has proven to be a real tailwind for the AUD.
Moves in ASX200 equity; shorting banks has worked well
If the move-in rates are a tailwind for the AUD, it has been problematic and a sizeable headwind for the interest rate-sensitive parts of the Australian equity market.
Shorting Aussie banks has worked well really since early February, where competition has had to intensify to attract deposits, while higher funding costs have promoted a war on mortgage pricing. Net interest margins are to decline consequently, and Westpac has already stated they have seen a rise in 30-day delinquencies.
While would-be buyers step away, the speculative fraction of market participants senses this and gets more traction shorting equities that are bear trending. Traders can operate banks tactically, either as part of a long/short approach or as an outright directional trade against lower net interest margins and earnings.
What comes next? Are rates still too low?
With the market now having discounted much of the expected future RBA policy setting, the question is what happens next for RBA policy. Can we get to a point where the market fully prices out cuts for the coming 2 years altogether?
Shorter-term, with 8bp of hikes priced for the July RBA meeting (a 32% chance of a hike), is this again priced too low? We see the peak RBA cash rate expectations of 4.34% by September, should this be priced closer to 4.6% maybe even 5%?
To answer this we will watch a combination of broad financial conditions, global economic trends, domestic auction clearance rates and anecdotes on credit demand. However, of the known data points, we look for:
• 13 June Westpac consumer confidence / NAB business confidence.
• 15 June - May employment report
• 28 June – May CPI report
• 29 June – Retail sales
• 3 July CoreLogic House price index
• 4 July – RBA meeting
• 26 July – Q2 CPI
• 15 August – Wage Price Index
For now, especially on the higher timeframes, the wind is to the AUD's back, and we see key technical breakouts vs GBP, EUR, and JPY, with AUDNZD having been on a one-way rampage. AUDCHF is eyeing a break of its range higher, having rallied from 0.5867, where a daily close could set the pair on for the double-bottom target of 0.6230.
The time for shorting the AUD (on the higher timeframes) will come soon enough, but until China turns lower and rates look fully priced the skew in risk that for more upside in the AUD.
07062023 - #AUDJPYOverall, AUD is strong, and AUDJPY made new highs yesterday. Nikkei dropped this morning but at support. Am thinking if the fake test of highs and failure could be a top. Given AUD strength, going short will be countertrend move. A test of 93.16 with a rejection will be good to test a short for a move to 92.7 for a 2.8 R trade and expect a bounce off 92.7.
Stops at the highs.