AUDJPY
AUD/JPY; Fade the rallies; Long term Short BiasPretty much everything is aligned in favor for this pair to post significant loses in the near future. (Including the sentiment indicators which are in firmly bearish territory!)
E.g., Fade the rallies!
- China's reopening is a dud - to say the least -, more importantly, with substantial long term implications;
- The commodity picture is strongly DEflationary, across the board; (US hard landing ; is Crude is going to hold around $60, or not?!; etc.)
- Japan is gaining it's industrial stride, benefiting from a deflationary (raw materials) environment and it's rapidly rising significance as the regional key stone vs. China;
- Australia (without much China) has the significance of a distant (albeit important) military outpost and that's all! (At the end of the day Australia bears even far less significance than India, which is simply too far from the developed world to play any notable role. - Australia happens to be even more removed and distance/sea lanes do matter nowadays, far more than at any time during the past 50 years!)
- ... and the list goes on . (A list which is rather long, all of it in favor of Japan.)
AUDJPY - FUNDAMENTAL + TECHNICAL BIAS#AUDJPY
These days, AUDJPY is slightly UP due to MARKET RISK ON. The reason for that was that the MARKET SENTIMENT was somewhat POSITIVE with FED UPDATES. JPY WEAK AFTER BOJ MEETING.
Because of that, XXXJPY CURRENCIES went UP very fast. It still has an effect. Anyway, they said that the BOJ MONETARY POLICY will be relaxed even more.
Therefore, after JPY becomes PRICE, XXXJPY PRICES may be UP in the future. Even now, we see that the MARKET is somewhat MARKET RISK ON. We expect AUDJPY to RETRACE to higher resistance. Anyway, if the AUDJPY goes upside down again, the VIX should go down and the JPY should go up, and STOCKS should go up. The dollar should continue to strengthen as it has in recent days.
AUDJPY can definitely SELL at 89.25 LEVEL. But somehow, after that, AUDJPY may go UP to 95.54 LEVEL. Anyway, if JPY becomes WEAK, if the UP SIDE STRUCTURE is BREAK, there is a very good situation to BUY AUDJPY.
AUDJPY is getting excitingly bullishToday we say the break above the downtrend trendline, and this is after the uptrend trendline has been respected. HH and HL pattern validates an uptrend and we should continue the price journey north. A little pullback is healthy, and this is where we'll go for our long position.
AUD/JPY Short PositionHere is my analysis for a potential short position I have taken on AUD/JPY.
The original analysis was spotted on the M15 chart showing a large RSI divergence, However the main analysis was done on H1 graph.
My Reasoning for this short is:
- Large RSI divergence on both M15 and H1 graph.
- Large Supply zone hit where a lot of retracements have been before.
- Strong start rejection in resistance zone.
- MACD crossover forming.
- Lower volume on MACD too.
I believe this will be a larger swing position with 2 positions personally taken both risking 1% combined.
Position 1:
Entry - 91.135
TP - 90.112
SL - 91.650
Position 2:
Entry - 91.134
TP - 89.735
SL - 91.854
Both positions holding a 2.00 roughly RR ratio with risking 1% of capital combined.
AUDJPY SHORTHi Traders,
A possibility to look for sell Entry near the 91.3 area. Can look for entry with a trendline break or we can look for a rejection coming out from the fibonacci level area.
My TP will be at 90.1 area. We have new Australian and Japanese news coming in this week.
Always trade with a stop loss along with Money management. Avoid over leveraging.
Follow me and hit the Boost if you like my charts.
Thank you. 👍
AUDJPY to stall at trend of lower highs?AUDJPY - 24h expiry
The downward trending resistance line at 91.30 should provide the ideal target and fade level as medium term bears build positions into the current strength.
Previous support level of 90.50 broken.
The trend of higher intraday lows has also been broken.
Further downside is expected.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
We look to Sell at 91.22 (stop at 91.65)
Our profit targets will be 90.25 and 90.05
Resistance: 91.30 / 91.90 / 92.32
Support: 90.00 / 89.15 / 88.50
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
AUDJPY Trading Plan - 14/May/2023Hello Traders,
Hope you all are doing good!!
I expect AUDJPY to go Up after finishing the correction.
Look for your BUY setups.
Please follow me and like if you agree or this idea helps you out in your trading plan.
Disclaimer: This is just an idea. Please do your own analysis before opening a position. Always use SL & proper risk management.
Market can evolve anytime, hence, always do your analysis and learn trade management before following any idea.
AUDJPY to see a temporary move higher?AUDJPY - 24h expiry
Previous support located at 90.00.
Previous resistance located at 90.50.
The trend of higher intraday lows has also been broken.
Further downside is expected.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels.
We look to Sell at 90.50 (stop at 90.90)
Our profit targets will be 89.50 and 89.30
Resistance: 90.25 / 90.50 / 91.00
Support: 90.00 / 89.50 / 89.00
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
JPY Pairs top-down analysisHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.