Audnzdlong
1D/16H AUDNZD AnalysisHello Traders,
I will be watching the AUDNZD for a possible break-out above the previous Resistance levels. On the 1D chart, a Bullish Engulfing Candle formed and easily eliminated the prior days’ losses. Strong Hidden Bullish Divergence has also formed on the MACD Platinum/Price Chart 1D.
Elsewhere on the 16H, the price has diverged from the RSI since mid-April (see attached 16H chart). This has resulted in the current RSI level being quite far from the previous highs. The RSI appears to have some room to move upwards before reaching over-bought territory.
There is a possible short-term set-up to current Resistance levels but in my opinion, the risk/reward is not there.
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AUDNZD MULTI TIMEFRAME STRUCTURE ANALYSISThe pair has bounced from the horizontal resistance line and also from the diagonal channel resistance line on the daily and is now trading near the local highs.
The closeup analysis identifies that that the pair still has not broken the 4 month long diagonal support uptrend line, which is now close to intersecting with the greater channel resistance and the greater horizontal structure resistance lines.
Locally, there is an important horizontal support line, which forms one side of the appearing triangular pattern.
Together with the double bottom, the pair is set to reach the triangle resistance line.
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Long AUD/NZD, targeting 1.1000Recent developments
A dovish RBNZ policy announcement has been conducive to the pair's push to a six-month high. Further monetary policy of asset purchases over negative rates was largely expected.
Technical analysis
The pair has given back a bit since rallying at its fastest pace since 2014 (around 7% increase in just over a month). If it can break past previous 1.0850 key level, then there should be a chance to test 1.10 or at the very least trade up the channel with ease.
Primary drivers for a further move up
On the fundamental side, elevated risk sentiment on the backdrop of bottoming growth in markets, as well as the continued divergence between RBA and RBNZ should support the upward direction of the pair. Policymakers have remained quite dovish, which should be risk-positive as central banks have incentive to ease rather than tighten. With that being said, the RBNZ policy stance is looking more dovish than the RBA's. We can look at both policy stances and yield curves for an indication of what's to potentially come.
The RBNZ have kept the official cash rate at 25 bp, while the base of asset purchasing have been expanded to a cap of NZ$60bn. Although the market seems to be pricing in negative rates, I don't think it's likely that we will see that, given that the RBNZ effectively guided that it won't happen (at least for this year - although this could be on the cards for 2021). Why lose all credibility on forward guidance when there are other methods of easing such as bond purchasing or fixed term loans? Either way, the base case is further easing and I would look towards August and June meetings as further catalysts if financial conditions tighten.
On the contrary, the RBA has stopped purchasing bonds since early May after hitting 25 bp on the 3Y; keeping the curve at the current levels should be supportive to Australia, which remains a relatively high yielding Aaa country (despite slight rating downgrade).
Risks
Downside risk on AUD/NZD lie in 1) narrowing policy differentials, 2) risk sentiment softening, 3) and/or a more hawkish RBNZ that would lead to NZD strength, thus pushing the pair lower.
As such, targeting top end of the channel 1.1000 with a stop of 1.05985.
AUD/NZD moving up 🦐AUD/NZD created higher high higher lows in the past few days and now just broke the resistance structure.
Based on the price action pattern we can see an "inside candle" and we can expect the marker to move further up.
According to our strategy we can look for a Long position at the resets of the structure.
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The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
AN, YOU LOOKING FINE BABE!Another week! Let's go! Could not really sleep, so decided to have a quick look at the markets ... AN is looking good in my eyes. Share your thoughts. This entry is riskier than usual, but we going!
D: Uptrending
4H: broke level and retested ...
1H: just a clearer vision of the retest.
share ur thoughts.
AUD/NZD forming a triangleThis triangle is signaling us that there is indecision between Buyers and Sellers. They can deicide where the price will go. Right now and maybe even in next couple of days we will see this ranging to continue. However sooner or later we predict that either Bulls or Bears will take advantage of one another. This could be a nice trading opportunity for next week.
We have put Alerts on both directions and when one alert is triggered then we will make a decision.
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AUDNZD Set to Complete The RallyAUDNZD is making a five-wave Elliot Wave impulse pattern.
To complete the impulse sequence, the price is expected to make one last lower high and new higher high as projected on the chart.
The completion of wave (iv) corrective move around 38.2 Fib area will give us the opportunity to take advantage of wave (v).
What's your view on AUDNZD?
AUDNZD TRADING PLANHello dear subscribers!
The price of the AUDNZD H as been moving in an up trend
and is correcting to previous support of 1.0580
Watch price action on 1.0580
and as soon as it retest and breaks 1.0580 mark, you could buy.
Good luck to you.
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