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GBPAUD to the moon?Taking a long position on GBPAUD, main reasons being: - BoE holding interest rates for now and less rate cuts are expected next year, could drive more institutions to hold GBP and increase it's value - AUD are trade partners with China who are experiencing significant economic instability - COT traders are 57% long on GBP (+2.14% compared to last week) - COT traders are 52% long on AUD, but are adding more short positions (-4.53% change in net long positions compared to last week) - Retail traders are 93% short on GBPAUD (I find that retail is usually wrong, so this is a positive signal for GBPAUD longs in my book) This trade is more based on Australia's weakness rather than Britain's strength. I was also thinking of shorting AUDJPY (see previous trade idea) or AUDUSD. I couldn't get in a position that I liked on AUDJPY (yet) and I'm already in a short position on EURUSD, so I want to diversify a bit away from the US Dollar. The reason I'm entering here is because it is filling an imbalance candle, and it's also at the 0.682 mark on the Fibonacci retracement tool. If I get taken out I don't mind, there may be better entries on GBPAUD available if that happens, or there may be an opportunity to short AUDJPY instead, which I prefer the fundamentals of. Don't take this as investment advice, I'm just sharing what I'm doing. Please don't follow me blindly, create your own strategy and ideas.
Long
by ciantrades
2
AUDJPY Fall? And potential Stock Market correction?Potential short idea on AUDJPY Reasons for (potential) entry: - COT traders are buying JPY and selling AUD fairly aggressively - AUD cutting interest rates, JPY hiking interest rates - AUD could be under pressure due to reliance on China, who are facing economic uncertainty In the past, when COT traders have bought JPY as aggressively as this there's been a stock market correction after it. Not saying it's definitely going to happen again - but JPY is seen as a 'safe-haven' currency and it's usually bought up when investors are risk-off. Stocks have been on a crazy bull run for the last year, I wouldn't be too surprised if there was some sort of correction in it soon.
Short
by ciantrades
7
Over+750 pip in GBP/AUD in our last call(07/31/2024)in our last analysis We were expecting a big rally for GBP/AUD. Since then the price moved in our favor and made over +750 pip for us. Despite weaker CPI data for AUD, we are now looking for a correction in the 1.98 zone. Our technical view has been shown in the chart. If you like it then Support us by liking, Following, and Sharing. Thanks For Reading Team Fortuna -RC (Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
by fortunamarkets
AUD/USD: Waiting for the RBA meeting today.Early this morning, Australia's job advertising data and inflation data dropped, signaling a change in the economy as tightening policies take effect. Currently the currency market is pricing in a 60% chance that the RBA will raise interest rates tomorrow. However, concerns about economic recession are also an issue banks need to consider at tomorrow's meeting. After keeping interest rates unchanged (4.1%) in the June meeting, a rate hike could send AUD back to around 0.6600. Today, at 10:30 am there will be two important news that directly affects AUD : - Cash Rate - RBA Rate Statement AUD/USD is gradually approaching the overbought zone on the RSI indicator. If tomorrow the bank keeps interest rates unchanged, this pair may fall back below 0.6500. Conversely, a rate hike could push the price target up to resistance at the 200-day DMA (blue)/0.6596.
Short
by MrTrongVo
GBPAUD - Will The AUD Continue To Be Bearish?Analysis: Bullish Confluences In an upwards trend Break & retest of a previous area of resistance for support 38.2% fib retracement level present Upwards trendline present GBP is the second strongest major currency where as the AUD is the 7th strongest major currency 25K short positions decrease for the GBP 2K short position increase for the AUD Bearish Confluences 30K long position decrease for the GBP 1K long position increase for the AUD Stay Safe - The JPI Team Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read and responded to. We any comments at all so thank you! Disclaimer: This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does too. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Long
by jpeacockfx
8
EURAUD - Bullish Breakout Of The Range?Analysis: Bullish Confluence Factors Upwards trend Break and retest of a previous area of resistance for support 38.2% fib retracement level In an upwards channel Longer term upwards trendline present EUR is the strongest major currency whereas the AUD is the 7th strongest major currency 2K short position increase for the AUD Neutral Confluence Factors Neutral decrease in positions both long and short for the EUR Stay Safe - The JPI Team Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read and responded to. We any comments at all so thank you! Disclaimer: This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does too. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Long
by jpeacockfx
AUDJPY - Could The JPY Be Getting Stronger?Analysis: Bearish Confluence Factors In a downwards trend Break and retest of a previous area of support for resistance Downwards trendline touch Increase of 2K short positions for the AUD Decrease of 12K short positions for the JPY Bullish Confluence Factors AUD is the 7th strongest major currency where as the JPY is the 8th strongest major currency Stay Safe - The JPI Team Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read and responded to. We any comments at all so thank you! Disclaimer: This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does too. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Short
by jpeacockfx
4
GBPAUD - Will We See This Pair Rise After CPI?Analysis: *THIS SETUP WAS SHARED IN OUR VIP GROUP YESTERDAY* Strong upwards trend (bullish confluence factor) Retest of a key level (bullish confluence factor) 50% fib retracement level touch (bullish confluence factor) Upwards trendline touch (bullish confluence factor) GBP 2nd strongest major currency (bullish confluence factor) AUD 3rd weakest major currency (bullish confluence factor) 24K long position increase for the GBP (bullish confluence factor) 5K long position decrease for the AUD (bullish confluence factor) Comment: We have a strong reasons to be bullish on this pair, hence why we are. The CPI figures coming out for the AUD could give us the catalyst we need for this pair to head higher. Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read and responded to. We any comments at all so thank you! Stay Safe - The JPI Team Disclaimer: This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does too. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Long
by jpeacockfx
6
AUDCAD - Bullish CAD On The Horizon?Analysis: Looking at price action we can see that price is in a downwards trend. We're seeing lower lows and lower highs being formed which confirms that we're in a downwards trend, so we're only looking for shorting opportunities. Price has made a deep pullback to the current lower high and we did put in a new lower low so this is looking like a great place to enter. At this level we also can see that it has been tested multiple times and we can see big rejections from this area showing that there is a lot of pressure at this level so it's more likely to hold and continue to the downside rather then it breaking and heading to the upside, especially when we add the fact that we're also in a downwards trend. We don't have any other added confluences for this trade, however the technicals are still valid for our strategy. Fundamentally the AUD is 3rd weakest major currency whereas the CAD is the 2nd weakest currency so this doesn't go in our favour but this isn't the full picture. Recently we saw a huge decrease in long positions on the CAD and the AUD, but we saw a small decrease in short positions on the AUD whereas we saw a huge decrease in short positions on the CAD. Basically meaning that more short positions were closed on the CAD then the AUD signifying that there might be an end coming to the bearishness for the CAD. With our speculation on oil prices rising which is heavily correlated to the CAD we can see some strong bullish momentum on the horizon for the CAD which is why fundamentally we prefer the CAD over the AUD. With all of the technicals and fundamentals combined together we get a bearish outlook on this pair. Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read. We appreciate it all. Stay Safe - JPI Disclaimer: This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does to. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Short
by jpeacockfx
10
AUDCAD - CAD Strength On The Horizon?Analysis: Price has been in this downwards trend for a while now and we're expecting this to continue. Price has been forming a series of lower highs and lower lows which confirms our thesis that price is trending to the downside. Recently we saw price break below a key level of support and we're now seeing that same level get retested for resistance and we suspect that it will hold, as support can quite often become resistance and this level has held as resistance in the past before. To add to our idea we've also got the 50% fib retracement level at our area which we expect bears will be sat at wanting to push price to the downside which works with our idea. We've also got a downwards trendline which again we expect sellers will be waiting at, holding and pushing price down further. When we look at the fundamentals the AUD and CAD are both very similar in strength and weakness so there isn't any real bias here however we do still favour the CAD over the AUD as more institutions are exiting out of their short positions on the CAD and are in fact going long instead where as for the AUD we're seeing an increase in both long and short positions by institutions. Another factor why we prefer the CAD over the AUD is the the CAD is heavily related the oil prices. With Canada being the 4th largest oil exporter in the work and with the possibility of oil prices being on the rise again we could see the CAD start to gain some more strength. The AUD did have some positive news that came out yesterday however we don't see this bullishness continuing, especially after the AUD news release later on tonight which we expect will be bearish for the AUD. With all of the confluences factors that we have we get a short bias on this pair at this level so this is a pair that we are interested in. Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read. We appreciate it all. Stay Safe - JPI Disclaimer: This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does to. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Short
by jpeacockfx
14
AUD/USD: Short at 1.0570-1.0580 Range Following the remarks of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the market has returned to a state of volatility after two trading days of digestion. This volatility is unlikely to be broken before the release of US non-farm payroll data in February, and the market needs such adjustments to repair the impact of the previous sharp drop. Therefore, today's market trend will be relatively simple. In the face of this volatility, the most suitable operation for AUD/USD is naturally to short on rallies. Based on the market situation, the following recommendations are given: Short at the range of 0.6630-0.6640, with targets at 0.6610, 0.6590, and 0.6570, and stop loss to be determined based on individual circumstances. FX:AUDUSD
Short
by investmentMr-X
AUDJPY - Update 3: Patience is Key Following last weeks RBA news and the market confluences we saw #audjpy break out the bearish trend its been in since September 2022 with a short bull rally in October 2022 then retesting the 95.00 area before eventually dropping back down into the 92.00 area we are currently sitting near. Since breaking out the zone we have now had 3 daily candles attempt to gain further bullish momentum by touching 93.00 only to be resisted by the 92.70 price which is a previous swing S&R. The aim of the game in this scenario with it sitting on a respective 50% level to be patient and wait to see what the market gives us after the opening next week, will the buyers take control and force a squeeze up and past 93.00 or will we again retest and pull back to the next S&R or respective level.
by OfficialKieranTrewick