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Aussie extends losses, job data nextIt has been a rough week for the Australian dollar, which has is down close to 2 per cent this week. AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7232, down 0.28% on the day. Australia releases key employment data early on Thursday, and the forecast is not encouraging. The economy is expected to have shed 42.5 thousand in July, after a gain of 29.1 thousand in June. The unemployment rate is projected to tick upwards to 5.0%, up from 4.9%. Wage growth data was released today, with Q2 showing a gain of 0.4%, down from 0.6% in the previous two quarters. With much of Australia under lockdown due to the outbreak of the delta variant of Covid, employment numbers could get worse and send the Australian dollar lower. The currency has fallen 1.9% this week and earlier today fell to a 10-month low. Unless the upcoming job numbers are stronger than expected, it could continue to be a rough week for the Australian dollar. The Federal Reserve will host a summit in Jackson Hole next week, and the meeting will be closely watched for any signals regarding a taper, possibly at the December meeting. Fed Chair Powell has taken great pains to telegraph his plans and keep the market in the loop. A tapering of the asset purchase program would be a massive move, and the Fed would make sure to clearly notify the markets of its plans at Jackson Hole or at the September meeting. With investors on the alert for a tapering signal, and an upsurge in Covid sapping confidence in the global recovery, sentiment towards the safe-haven US dollar should remain strong. AUD is testing resistance at 0.7402. Close by, there is resistance at 0.7431. On the downside, 0.7225 is fluid in support. Below, there is support at 0.7103
by OANDA
AUDUSDFrom the weekly point of views, the price was created a weekly strong demand zone, expect a deeper pullback to this area before another new impulse to the upside. From the daily perspective, this demand zone is correlated with the daily support area, because we have multiple support resistance touches inside of this area. From the hedge funds' point of view, they are bearish bias on AUD on the longer-term perspectives. But in the today new report, they were added around 3.3k of long positions and closed 800 of short positions on AUD. During AUD push to the downside, short closed but long added, implies they are actually accumulating their long positions in order to buy at the lower price. The proper way to approaching this pair is to wait for the pullback to the demand zone, then only looking for the long opportunity inside the demand area. A deeper pullback is expected since we have an overextended move to the upside from the weekly point of view. The result might not follow my analysis, and this analysis is based on the technical and COT perspective. Comment below let me know your views on AUDUSD.
by JackyTong96