AUD/USD Bearish Breakout PotentialThe chart shows AUD/USD on a 1-hour timeframe, highlighting a consolidation phase with multiple rejections at resistance (labelled 1-4). The price has recently rejected the upper boundary and is breaking down from the range, suggesting bearish momentum. A significant liquidity grab appears to have occurred near the highs, followed by a strong rejection. The projected move suggests a further decline toward the next support level around 0.6300. Traders might look for confirmation via increased selling pressure and volume before entering short positions.
AUDUSD
AUD/USD: Smart Money Loading Up or Another Trap?AUD/USD – Bullish Momentum or Liquidity Grab?
Technical Breakdown:
The Australian Dollar vs. US Dollar (AUD/USD) is showing an interesting setup, with price action hinting at potential continuation to the upside. Let’s dive into the analysis across multiple timeframes to see if buyers are in control or if we’re facing another liquidity trap.
Weekly Timeframe:
• AUD/USD experienced a strong bearish move after reaching 0.6938 in September 2024, followed by a relentless downtrend to 0.6085 by mid-November.
• Since then, we’ve seen a three-week bullish push off the lows, suggesting a potential shift in sentiment.
• A higher low has been established, but the key question remains: Will buyers maintain control?
Daily Timeframe:
• A structural break above 0.6311 signals bullish intent.
• The market previously swept early buyers, forming a double bottom, before pushing back above resistance.
• Current price action is retesting this level, potentially building liquidity for the next leg up.
H4 Timeframe (Trade Execution Level):
• Price printed a higher low at 0.6371, and bullish momentum is attempting to reclaim the recent highs.
• A strong bearish retracement provided a potential early buy entry, setting up a high reward-to-risk trade.
• If price holds above the 0.6359 entry zone, we could see further upside targets.
Entry & Risk Management:
• Entry: 0.6359
• Stop Loss: 0.6371 (tight 5-pip stop)
• First Target: 0.6408 (1:6 RR)
• Final Target: 0.6446 (1:9-1:10 RR)
Market Psychology & Liquidity Play:
• Many traders chased the highs and placed stop losses below local support—these were swept out.
• A large bullish volume candle remains significant, hinting at strength in buyers.
• If the market sustains momentum, we could see a move toward higher resistance at 0.6446.
Conclusion:
AUD/USD is setting up for a potential bullish breakout, but traders must watch for confirmations on lower timeframes. If price structure holds, this could be a highly profitable swing trade.
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AUD/USD Bullish Breakout Signals Further UpsideAUD/USD has broken out of a bullish flag pattern on the 4-hour timeframe, suggesting continued upward momentum. A buy entry is recommended at a retest of the former resistance level near 0.63700, now acting as support, aligning with a key bullish trendline.
Technical Observations:
Higher High Formation: The AUD/USD pair has established a higher high on the 4-hour chart, confirming an ongoing bullish trend.
Bullish Flag Breakout: Price has decisively broken above a well-defined bullish flag pattern, typically a continuation pattern that signals further upside.
Support Confirmation: The 0.63700 level, previously acting as resistance, is anticipated to act as support upon a retest.
Trendline Confluence: A bullish trendline further reinforces the support zone near the 0.63700 level.
Trading Recommendation:
Entry Point: Buy AUD/USD near the retest of the 0.63700 level.
Stop Loss: Place a stop loss at 0.63200 to manage risk.
Take Profit 1: 0.64200
Take Profit 2: 0.64700
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves risk, and you should carefully consider your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.
AUDUSD Will Move Higher! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for AUDUSD.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 0.638.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 0.645 level soon.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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NZDUSD Cup Pattern: Bullish Breakout Targeting 0.60NZDUSD is currently trading at 0.57 and forming a classic cup pattern, signaling a potential bullish continuation toward the 0.60 target. The cup pattern is a well-known technical formation that typically indicates a period of accumulation, followed by a breakout to the upside. If the price breaks above the resistance level at the cup’s rim, it could trigger strong buying momentum, pushing NZDUSD higher.
From a technical standpoint, the cup pattern suggests that the market has undergone a correction and is now regaining strength. A confirmed breakout above the neckline would validate the bullish setup, with 0.60 as the next major resistance level. Traders should watch for increasing volume and bullish candlestick confirmations to strengthen the breakout scenario.
Fundamentally, the New Zealand dollar’s movement depends on risk sentiment, US economic data, and Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policies. If the US dollar weakens due to expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts or softer economic data, NZDUSD could gain additional upside momentum. Additionally, any hawkish signals from the RBNZ regarding inflation and interest rates could further support the bullish outlook.
In summary, NZDUSD is forming a bullish cup pattern, with a potential breakout targeting 0.60. A strong breakout above the resistance could accelerate the bullish move, supported by both technical patterns and fundamental factors. Traders should monitor global risk sentiment, US dollar trends, and RBNZ statements to confirm the momentum shift.
Bearish reversal?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the pullback support.
Pivot: 0.6421
1st Support: 0.6377
1st Resistance: 0.6465
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bullish continuation?The Aussie (AUD/USD0 is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 0.6376
1st Support: 0.6331
1st Resistance: 0.6449
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
AUDUSD H4 | Bearish DropBased on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is testing our sell entry at 0.6406, which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibo extension and the 61.8% Fibo projection, indicating a strong resistance level.
Our take profit will be at 0.6369, a pullback support level.
The stop loss will be placed at 0.6460, which is an overlap resistance level.
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AUDUSD - Look for a short !!Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on AUDUSD.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bearish market structure from 4H timeframe perspective, so I look for a short. As we can see price took buy side liquidity and now it's in bearish OB, I expect to see BOS on lower timeframe to open the trade.
Fundamental news: Upcoming week on Tuesday (GMT+2) we will see results of Cash Rate on AUD and on Thursday (GMT+2) we have Unemployment Rate. News with high impact on currency.
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AUD/USD Triangle Breakout (19.2.25)The AUD/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 0.6391
2nd Resistance – 0.6404
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AUD/USD breaks to a new weekly highFollowing the RBA’s hawkish rate cut supports, we are continuing to see bullish AUD/USD price action.
Earlier this week, the RBA provided no clear easing bias, citing risks on both sides of the inflation outlook. While it acknowledged that the disinflationary process is progressing, a strong labour market has kept policymakers cautious. The central bank’s governor Bullock highlighted risks to inflation, saying we cannot declare victory on inflation yet.
Overnight, we had some strong labour market data that further supported the Aussie dollar, and just now we have seen rates break to a new weekly high.
From a technical standpoint, the trend has been bullish on the AUD/USD ever since forming a hammer candle around the 0.6130 area a couple of weeks ago. Since then, it has consistently printed bullish price action, keeping buyers in control.
Previous resistance at 0.6330 has now turned into support, keeping the path of least resistance to the upside. This has potentially paved the way for a run toward the 0.6500 handle in the next few days.
Ahead of that, the 38.2% Fibo level comes into focus as 0.6415 next.
On the downside, the 21-day exponential moving average at around 0.6280 serves as the next support in the event of a breakdown below the abovementioned 0.6330 level.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
AUDUSD Bullish break-out signalThe AUDUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern for the whole month of February and since yesterday it is making a bounce on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line).
Today it broke above the previous High and this is a bullish break-out signal. The previous Bullish Leg that rebounded on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and broke above its previous High, targeted the 1.382 Fibonacci extension.
With the presence of an Inner Higher Highs trend-line, we expect the pair to hit the 1.382 Fib at 0.64250.
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AUDUSD Long Setup 2/19/25 (Smart Money)Smart money trading is the method I use.
It utilizes market structure, liquidity, and supply/demand zones. From my image you can see the steps before a long setup possibly in NY session tomorrow.
Liquidity was taken and momentum has went for the upside, looking for a long setup at my 7th step.
#AUDUSD 1DAYAUDUSD (4H Timeframe) Analysis
Market Structure:
The price has been in a downtrend but has now broken above the downtrend resistance, signaling a potential shift in market direction. A breakout from this level suggests that buyers are gaining strength, possibly leading to further bullish movement.
Forecast:
A buy opportunity may arise as the breakout indicates a change in trend. Waiting for a retest of the breakout level for confirmation can provide a stronger entry point.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Entry Zone: A buy position can be considered after a successful breakout and retest of the previous resistance as support.
- Risk Management:
- Stop Loss: Placed below the breakout level to minimize risk.
- Take Profit: Target key resistance zones where price may face selling pressure.
Market Sentiment:
The breakout of the downtrend resistance suggests that bullish momentum is increasing. A confirmed retest with strong price action can provide better confirmation for an upward move.
Falling towards 50% Fibonacci support?AUD/USD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.6304
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.6254
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 0.6375
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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AUD/USD Trades Near Year’s High After RBA DecisionAUD/USD Trades Near Year’s High After RBA Decision
Today, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) eased monetary policy, cutting the interest rate from 4.35% to 4.10%, according to Forex Factory.
As reported by Reuters:
→ This marks the first easing since the 2020 pandemic;
→ RBA Governor Michele Bullock stated that market expectations for two more cuts this year are “ambitious”;
→ The bank’s leadership remains cautious about further easing prospects.
While analysts had accurately predicted the February rate cut, AUD/USD saw volatility without a significant move, possibly because market participants are more focused on Trump’s tariff plans, which could impact global trade and Forex markets.
Technical Analysis of AUD/USD Today
Since mid-December, the AUD/USD pair has mostly traded within the 0.6200–0.6300 range, except for early February’s sharp drop when Trump’s tariff policies shook currency markets.
However, demand appears resilient:
→ After plunging to around 0.6100, the price quickly rebounded into the range;
→ Arrows highlight rapid recoveries after short-term dips;
→ A blue ascending trend channel is forming on the chart.
These factors suggest growing appeal for the Australian dollar, with the 0.6300 level potentially acting as support going forward.
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AUD/USD BEARS ARE STRONG HERE|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
AUD-USD uptrend evident from the last 1W green candle makes short trades more risky, but the current set-up targeting 0.625 area still presents a good opportunity for us to sell the pair because the resistance line is nearby and the BB upper band is close which indicates the overbought state of the AUD/USD pair.
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AUDUSD Bullish AUD/USD has successfully broken a strong resistance level, signaling bullish momentum. After the breakout, we may see a retracement to the previous resistance area, which could now act as support before the next leg up. If buyers continue stepping in, further upside movement is expected.
🔹 Key Levels to Watch:
✅ Support: Retesting the previous resistance zone
✅ Bullish Confirmation: Holding above support could fuel further upside
Always follow proper risk management and wait for confirmation before entering trades
The RBA just cut by 25bp: Instant ViewThe RBA have just cut their cash rate for the first time since late 2020. Using their monetary policy statement and updated forecast, I provide my instant high-level view of what this could mean fir future policy - with an update to my AUD/USD outlook thrown in for good measure.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Falling towards 50% Fibonacci support?The Aussie (AUD/USD) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 0.6301
1st Support: 0.6259
1st Resistance: 0.6376
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
AUD/USD: Australian Dollar Strengthens Ahead of RBA DesicionThe Australian dollar has been rising, gaining around 1.5% over the past three sessions against the U.S. dollar. The current bullish movement continues as the market awaits the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decision in the coming hours. The RBA is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points , bringing the new rate to 4.1%.
However, the market has already priced in this decision, as expectations for a rate cut have been consistent for several days. This has allowed upward momentum to persist, as any bearish reaction to the RBA's move may have already been absorbed into the price.
Additionally, as the trade war between the U.S. and China escalates, Australia's economic ties with China have strengthened, boosting confidence in the region and supporting a bullish outlook for the Australian dollar.
Breakout from Sideways Range
Until recently, AUD/USD had been trading within a key range, with resistance at 0.62923 and support at 0.61929. But the recent bullish move has broken through this resistance, leading to stronger buying pressure in the short term.
As long as price remains above the upper boundary of this range, the Australian dollar could maintain its upward momentum in the near term.
RSI Indicator: Overbought Signals?
Not everything is bullish, as the RSI indicator is now approaching 70, the overbought zone.
If the RSI remains above this level for the next few sessions, it could signal an imbalance between buyers and sellers, as well as the potential for short-term selling corrections.
Key Levels to Watch:
0.61929 – Distant Support: Lower boundary of the previous range.
Frequent price oscillations at this level could revive the previous downtrend seen since September 2024.
0.62923 – Key Support: Aligns with the Ichimoku Cloud barrier and the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA).
A tentative level where short-term bearish corrections could occur.
0.64323 – Major Resistance: Corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
If the bullish bias pushes price toward this level, it could signal the beginning of a stronger uptrend in the short term.
By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst