Levels discussed during livestream 4th November4th November
DXY: Needs to break 103.90 to trade up to 104.30 (trendline)
NZDUSD: Sell 0.5985 SL 30 TP 45
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6590 SL 25 TP 50
GBPUSD: Sell 1.2985 SL 40 TP 130
EURUSD: Buy 1.0910 SL 30 TP 90
USDJPY: Ranging between 151.70 and 153.40, looking for breakout potential following major news
USDCHF: Buy 0.8645 SL 20 TP 55
USDCAD: Sell 1.3910 SL 20 TP 100
Gold: Needs to break 2730 to trade down to 2710
AUDUSD
Trade idea - AUDUSD Long4H
Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern potentially in play.
Clear support & resistance zone is there.
Corrective approach towards entry zone.
Market moving in Bull Flag formation.
Fibonacci completions aligning with entry zone.
= Confirmation to place Buy limit.
1.5% risk.
Aiming to take full profit at Daily TP.
Aussie:Elliott Wave Structure Suggests More Downside After RallyThe RBA stands out with a potentially different approach compared to other central banks, as inflation in Autralia remains relatively high, making rate cuts this week less likely. This could support a rally in the Aussie, which aligns with the Elliott Wave pattern showing wave A in its final stages, with a strong five wave sell-off from September highs.
A bounce could develop then, especially if the HSI remains stable or even moves higher this week.
However, once the Aussie shows a solid recovery, be awre for a potential resumption of the downtrend, ideally from around 0.67 resistance; from the area of a former wave four. For those trading this pair, it’s worth waiting for a bounce before entering on the short-side.
Grega
Market Analysis: AUD/USD Rebound Could Be LimitedMarket Analysis: AUD/USD Rebound Could Be Limited
AUD/USD is attempting a recovery wave from 0.6540.
Important Takeaways for AUD/USD Analysis Today
- The Aussie Dollar found support near 0.6540 and is now recovering against the US Dollar.
- There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 0.6575 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair dipped from the 0.6600 resistance zone. The Aussie Dollar declined below 0.6600, but the bulls were active near 0.6540 against the US Dollar.
A low was formed near 0.6537 and the pair is now correcting losses. There was a move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6659 swing high to the 0.6537 low. There was also a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 0.6575.
The pair is now above 0.6585 and the 50-hour simple moving average. On the upside, immediate resistance is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6659 swing high to the 0.6537 low at 0.6610.
The first major resistance is near a rising channel at 0.6630. A clear upside break above 0.6630 could send the pair toward 0.6660. The next major resistance on the AUD/USD chart is near 0.6680, above which the price could rise toward 0.6725. Any more gains might send the pair toward 0.6740.
On the downside, initial support is near 0.6575 or the 50-hour simple moving average. The next support could be the 0.6540 zone. Any more losses might send the pair toward the 0.6500 support.
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AUDUSD h4 | Be arish Drop Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 0.6619, which is a pullback resistance and a 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Our take profit will be at 0.6558, a swing-low support level.
The stop loss will be at 0.6662, an overlap resistance level.
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Falling towards 38.2% Fibonacci support?The Aussie (AUD/USD) is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 0.6585
1st Support: 0.6538
1st Resistance: 0.6649
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Trump or Harris? Markets Awaits Outcome Trump or Harris? Markets Awaits Outcome
This week, the U.S. presidential election will command everyone's attention.
Market watchers will be focused on a handful of pivotal swing states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Pennsylvania is potentially the most critical.
Yet, the results may not be immediate. In 2020, for instance, the Associated Press declared Biden the official winner about three and a half days after polls closed.
This time around, a win by Trump could strengthen the dollar, driven by the possibility of heightened tariffs that may also weigh on currencies closely linked to China, such as the Australian dollar. With daily MACD in negative territory, AUD/USD appears on track to test the next support at 0.6490, aligned with a trend line since October 2023
In contrast, Newsquawk suggests that a Harris victory could pressure the dollar, with potential gains in commodities and the euro.
XAU/USD : Bull or Bear ? NFP's coming! (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the #Gold chart in the 30-minute timeframe, we can see that, as observed last night, gold dropped sharply from $2782 to $2731, creating a significant liquidity gap. As mentioned yesterday, the first key demand zone was between $2733-$2735, and once the price reached this critical zone, it was met with buying pressure, leading to a rebound of over 250 pips, taking gold up to $2757. Currently, gold is trading around $2752, with the NFP report ahead.
If the NFP data comes in lower than the forecast, it could push gold to higher levels. Conversely, if the data is higher than expected, we might see further declines in gold. There’s no certainty here, so I prefer to observe rather than make any trades on gold today.
Good luck, friends!
AUDUSD Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
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AUD-USD Will Keep Falling! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
AUD-USD is trading in a
Downtrend and the pair
Is making a pullback from
The horizontal level of 0.6600
From where we are already
Seeing a bearish move down
So a further bearish continuation
Is to be expected
Sell!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
Analyzing the AUD/USD pair on the 1-hour timeframethe AUD/USD pair on the 1-hour timeframe, the pair is currently in a downtrend but has not yet reached the green support zone. If the price returns to this zone, it could attract buyers, potentially pushing the price upward. This scenario may present a long opportunity, provided there's a confirmation signal before entry.
Key Points:
Current Trend: Downward movement towards support.
Support Zone: Identified in green on the chart.
Potential Action: Look for bullish confirmation signals upon price reaching the support zone before considering a long position.
Always ensure proper risk management and wait for clear confirmation before entering a trade.
XAUUSD IS BACK !With a little more drawdown today and the beginning of next week, XAUUSD has showed everyone what it was capable of the past few days by reaching such high levels ;
It has to bounce on the double uptrend green limit, then go up and wait a little for the 5th of november ;
on this day markets will go nuts for every asset, so it seems like gold might be going for a big rally to the 2780/90s
US100 TOWARDS THE SKYWe missed the entry yesterday thinking it would bounce way harder than that, it actually took several hours to get back in an uptrend position ;
for now it seems a little corection to the LL is coming after the 15:30 rush ;
after that, US100 is going to the roof and taking the uptrend direction back.
AU:Will Positive Aussie Labor Data Hold as US Retail Sales Loom?The Australian Dollar (AUD) found support on Thursday following the release of positive labor market data. Australia's Employment Change rose by 64.1K in September, bringing total employment to a record-high 14.52 million. This strong labor data has provided a temporary boost to the AUD, despite broader market uncertainties. However, traders remain cautious ahead of the anticipated US Retail Sales data, which is expected to show a 0.3% increase for September, up from 0.1% in the previous month.
Technical Analysis and Market Positioning
From a technical perspective, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows a clear divergence in market sentiment. Retail traders appear to be strongly bullish on the AUD/USD, while smart money (institutional investors) has taken a bearish stance. This discrepancy often signals the potential for market reversals, as institutional players are generally more adept at positioning ahead of key market moves.
Additionally, when looking at seasonality trends from the Forecaster and considering key Supply and Demand areas, there’s a possibility that the AUD/USD could experience a new drop. However, this is likely to occur after a brief retracement, as the market digests both the Australian labor data and the upcoming US economic figures.
Outlook and Strategy
For now, we are adopting a wait-and-see approach. Given the mixed signals from the COT report and the seasonal factors at play, we prefer to remain on the sidelines until the situation becomes clearer. The upcoming US Retail Sales data, along with other market-moving news, will likely provide further direction for the AUD/USD in the days ahead. Once the market reacts to these key events, we will reassess and consider potential trade setups accordingly.
Patience is key, as the next few days could bring more clarity after the news impacts play out.
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Pre NFP Trade Analysis1st November
DXY: Stronger NFP, DXY bounce off 103.80 to trade up to 104.60. If 103.80 broken, could trade down to 103.45
NZDUSD: Sell 0.5925 SL 20 TP 60 (DXY Strength)
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6545 SL 25 TP 60 (DXY Strength)
GBPUSD: Sell 1.28 SL 40 TP 120 (DXY Strength)
EURUSD: Buy 1.0905 SL 25 TP 100 Hesitation at 1.0950 (DXY Weakness)
USDJPY: Sell 151.40 SL 40 TP 200 Hesitation at 150.55 (DXY Weakness)
USDCHF: Buy 0.8710 SL 20 TP 40 (DXY Strength)
USDCAD: Sell 1.3915 SL 15 TP 30 (DXY Weakness)
Gold: Needs to stay below 2760, break 2740 could trade down to 2708
US100 BREAKING THE UPTREND !!Possible new route for nasdaq as it has broken the green uptrend we were hoping that would never break ;
now it s sketchy, does it go all the way down and stops to the general uptrend, or does it also break that ?
it seems tough with RSI levels and current economic situations to break such a strong trend, but be ready for everything !
Looks Like Someone's Prepping for a Rocket Launch in AUD!Alright, alright, it seems like someone has seriously geared up for a rocket launch in the Australian dollar, and it’s happening in the next few days.
Looks like we might get some news dropped right after everything goes down, or maybe I’m just out of the loop.
A super aggressive portfolio, a Call Spread, popped up yesterday, and it looks like they’re still pouring in options today.
Targets for the futures are set at 0.68-0.6825. It’s like a rocket ready to go...))
US100/NASDAQ NEXT MOVEAfter successfully forecasting today's move (white line), this big drawdown was unexpected but it means two things :
- it has to correct before tonight
- it will not go under the green lower uptrend limit, because then it turns into a whole new trend and the 1D/4H/2H RSI is too low for any downtrend to start now.
It will go back up at 3:30 PM fot the big daily punch.