AUDUSD
Downside Ahead for Aussie - COT Strategy Short DISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
SHORT
Australian Dollar (6A)
My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in 6A if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal
OI Analysis: Last 3 weeks of price rally has seen OI increasing while the CM's have been getting out of their longs. This is bearish.
ADX: Pinch forming.
Valuation: Overvalued VS Treasuries
True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency for this currency to go down to early October.
COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal
Supplementary Indicators: POIV, %R & Stochastic Sell Signals
Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
Market Analysis: AUD/USD Regain StrengthMarket Analysis: AUD/USD Regain Strength
AUD/USD is consolidating gains from the 0.6825 zone.
Important Takeaways for AUD USD Analysis Today
- The Aussie Dollar rallied above the 0.6735 and 0.6750 resistance levels against the US Dollar.
- There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at 0.6795 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from the 0.6700 support. The Aussie Dollar was able to clear the 0.6735 resistance to move into a positive zone against the US Dollar, as mentioned in the previous analysis.
There was a close above the 0.6750 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the pair tested the 0.6825 zone. A high was formed near 0.6824 and the pair recently saw a minor pullback.
There was a move below the 0.6810 level. The pair declined below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6764 swing low to the 0.6824 high. On the downside, initial support is near a key bullish trend line at 0.6795.
The next major support is near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6764 swing low to the 0.6824 high at 0.6780.
If there is a downside break below the 0.6780 support, the pair could extend its decline toward the 0.6750 level. Any more losses might signal a move toward 0.6735.
On the upside, the AUD/USD chart indicates that the pair is now facing resistance near 0.6810. The first major resistance might be 0.6825. An upside break above the 0.6825 resistance might send the pair further higher.
The next major resistance is near the 0.6880 level. Any more gains could clear the path for a move toward the 0.7000 resistance zone.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Aussie H1 | Rising into swing-high resistanceThe Aussie is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 0.6821 which is a swing-high resistance.
Stop loss is at 0.6844 which is a level that sits above a resistance that is identified by a Fibonacci confluence i.e. the 78.% projection and the 127.2% extension levels.
Take profit is at 0.6789 which is a swing-low support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci extension level.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
AUDUSD | 15m Trade Plan | Intraday15m: Can observe BoS and Swing Low
The price is now consolidating.
Plan A: As soon as the market takes buy-side liquidity, take a short position, followed by a 15m bearish confirmation.
Plan B: As soon as the market takes sell-side liquidity, take a long position, followed by a 15m bullish confirmation.
Plan C: Take a flip entry accordingly.
Do not deviate from the process; take entries in the 15m kill zones.
AUD/USD BEST PLACE TO SELL FROM|SHORT
Hello,Friends!
AUD/USD pair is trading in a local uptrend which we know by looking at the previous 1W candle which is green. On the 5H timeframe the pair is going up too. The pair is overbought because the price is close to the upper band of the BB indicator. So we are looking to sell the pair with the upper BB line acting as resistance. The next target is 0.670 area.
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Levels discussed on Livestream 29 August29th August
DXY: Could trade higher, needs to break above 101.20 (61.8%) to retest of 101.60
NZDUSD: Retracing down, look for reaction at 0.6220, Buy 0.6235 SL 25 TP 60
AUDUSD: Buy 0.6815 SL 20 TP 40
GBPUSD: Could trade up to 1.33, look for reaction at the strong resistance level.
EURUSD: Sell 1.1085 SL 40 TP 85
USDJPY: Sell 144.80 SL 40 TP 140
USDCHF: Buy 0.8445 SL 20 TP 40
USDCAD: Sell 1.3435 SL 20 TP 70
Gold: Could trade slightly higher, look for retest of 2500 to buy the bounce
$AUDUSD | Sell Trade | Market Exec |Technical Confluences:
Price is at Overbought conditions Daily timeframe
Price action is close to a resistance trendline and entering an Interest Zone
Fundamental Confluences:
Very similar to the OANDA:NZDUSD posting I did, all other Central Banks in the DM space wanting to cut rates, it negates off the yield premium that NZD would be getting against USD
Market is consolidating after all the USD sell-off and profit-taking mood before NFP is likely to happen
AUD being a commodity currency is greatly affected by China's economic performance and it is currently still looking bleak
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I have also taken a Short position in the FX:AUDUSD trade and monitoring that the Resistance trendline and Interest Zone don't break.
Within the Orange Zones, I will look to add position if I see further support that the Resistance will hold
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AUDUSD H1 I Bearish BreakoutBased on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price is falling to our sell entry at 0.6786.
Our take profit will be at 0.6750, a pullback support close to 50% Fibo retracement.
The stop loss will be placed at 0.6812, which is a swing-high level.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
AUD/USD: Price Faces Resistance After CPI ReleaseAUD/USD: Price Faces Resistance After CPI Release
Today, the Australian Bureau of Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures. According to ForexFactory, the actual annual inflation rate was 3.5% (expected = 3.4%, previous = 3.8%). In other words, inflation in Australia is declining, but not at the pace that might have been hoped for.
The initial reaction to the news was a sharp rise in the Australian dollar, with the AUD/USD rate increasing by approximately 0.4% in the first 15 minutes after the release.
However, the price then returned to levels seen before the inflation news was released. How can this be interpreted?
A technical analysis of the 4-hour AUD/USD chart shows that:
→ After the highly volatile 5 August, the price has been in an uptrend (as shown in blue). As a result of this rally, the price rose to the 0.680 level, where an important July peak was formed.
→ Following the inflation news, there was an attempt at a bullish breakout above this level, but it failed. Thus, the 0.680 level has confirmed its role as resistance.
→ The RSI indicator shows signs of bearish divergence, suggesting that the August rally may be fading.
The ascending blue channel remains relevant for now, but the 0.680 level appears to be a significant test of the bulls' intentions. The inability of the AUD/USD price to hold above the 0.680 level today may lead to a correction towards the lower boundary of the channel.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
AUD/USD At Amazing Selling Area , D Res Will Give Us 200 Pips ?This Is An Educational + Analytic Content That Will Teach Why And How To Enter A Trade
Make Sure You Watch The Price Action Closely In Each Analysis As This Is A Very Important Part Of Our Method
Disclaimer : This Analysis Can Change At Anytime Without Notice And It Is Only For The Purpose Of Assisting Traders To Make Independent Investments Decisions.
Australian CPI falls but markets not impressedThe Australian dollar continues to have a quiet week. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6796 in the European session, up 0.06% on the day at the time of writing.
Australia’s inflation rate continued to decelerate in July, although the markets were hoping for more. CPI rose 3.5%, down from 3.8% in June but above the market estimate of 3.4%. This was the lowest figure since March but much of the decline was driven by electricity rebates which artificially lowered electricity prices.
Core inflation eased but goods inflation remained flat. The markets weren’t impressed with the inflation data and the odds of a rate cut in November fell to 48%, down from 58% prior to the inflation release.
The markets are more dovish than the Reserve Bank of Australia, which has discussed raising rates at recent meetings. The central bank is not satisfied with the pace of underlying inflation and has projected that it won’t return to the target band of 2% to 3% until the end of 2025. Governor Bullock has said that the Bank has no plans to cut for at least six months, but the markets are betting that the RBA won’t stay on the sidelines while the Fed and other major central banks are lowering rates.
The financial markets are hanging onto every word from FOMC members and we’ll hear from members Christopher Waller later today and Rafael Bostic early on Thursday. As well, the US releases second estimate GDP for the second quarter on Thursday.
The initial estimate showed the economy powering ahead with a 2.8% gain, double the 1.4% pace in Q1. The second estimate is expected to confirm the initial reading and confirm that the economy remains in solid shape, despite concerns about a weak employment labor which led to a market meltdown earlier this month.
AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6784. Below, there is support at 0.6771
0.6805 and 0.6818 are the next resistance lines
Levels discussed on Livestream 28th August 28th August
DXY: Trading along 100.80, could trade lower to 100.55. If support level not broken, could range between 100.55 and 100.90
NZDUSD: Buy 0.6290 SL 20 T 70
AUDUSD: Looking for a break of resistance, Buy 0.6810 SL 20 TP 40
GBPUSD: Could trade up to 1.33, look for reaction at the strong resistance level.
EURUSD: Could range between 1.1160 and 1.12
USDJPY: Sell 144.25 SL 30 TP 75
USDCHF: Sell 0.8420 SL 30 TP 70
USDCAD: Sell 1.3445 SL 25 TP 80 (Hesitation at 1.34)
Gold: Above 2512 could trade up to 2525
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST Aug 26-30: USD EUR GBP AUD NZD CAD CHF JPYThis is Part 2 of the Weekly Forex Forecast for AUG 26-30th.
In this video, we will cover:
USD Index, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF, USDJPY
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
AUDUSD Is Bearish! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for AUDUSD.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 0.677.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 0.668 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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Levels discussed on 27th August Livestream27th August
DXY: consolidating along 100.80, needs to stay below 101.10 to maintain bearish sentiment, breaking 100.80 could trade down to 100.55
NZDUSD: Buy 0.6230 SL 20 TP 45
AUDUSD: Look for reaction at 0.68 (CPI Pending) Sell 0.6740 SL 25 TP 45 (Tomorrow)
GBPUSD: Buy 1.3225 SL 35 TP 70
EURUSD: Buy 1.1180 SL 25 TP 70
USDJPY: Wait for retracement to complete, before looking for selling potential. could retest 146
USDCHF: Nothing for now, look for reaction at 0.8445
USDCAD: Sell 1.3450 SL 20 TP 40
Gold: Could retest 2500, look for bounce to 2515
Aussie H1 | Potential bullish reversalThe Aussie (AUD/USD) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 0.6761 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 0.6738 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 0.6795 which is a pullback resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
AUD-USD Local Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
AUD-USD has hit a
Horizontal resistance level
Of 0.6800 and a bearish
Pullback is already happening
So we are locally bearish
Biased and we will be
Expecting a further move down
Sell!
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AUDUSD: Pullback From Resistance 🇦🇺🇺🇸
AUDUSD may keep retracing from a key daily structure resistance.
The price formed a cup & handle formation on that on an hourly time frame
after the market opening.
Its neckline was broken during the Asian session.
The pair may reach 0.6263 support soon.
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