AUDUSD - 4hrs ( Buy Trade Target Range 150 PIP ) Pair Name : AUD/USD
Time Frame : 4hrs Chart / Close
Scale Type : Large Scale
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Key Technical / Direction ( Long )
Type : Mid Term Swing
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Bullish Break
0.66900 Area
Reasons
- Major Turn level / W
- Visible Range Lvn
- Pattern Break
- Day / week high Break
- Fixed Range Hvn
Bearish Reversal
0.68600 Area
Reasons
- Major Turn level / D
- Pattern Target
- Visible Range Hvn
- 3 Quarter High
- Fibo Golden Zone
AUDUSD
RBA's Bullock says no rate cuts coming, Aussie soarsThe Australian dollar has started the week with slight gains. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6685 in the European session, up 0.24% on the day at the time of writing. Earlier today, the Australian dollar rose as high as 0.6694, marking a one-month high.
Hawkish remarks from Reserve Bank of Australia’s Governor Bullock sent the Aussie flying on Friday. Bullock reiterated that there would be no interest rate cuts in the “near term”. Bullock used the same language after the meeting on August 6 and when she clarified that this meant a period of at least six months, the Australian dollar responded with strong gains. The RBA statement at the meeting expressed the Bank’s frustration that inflation remains too high and is coming down slower than the central bank had expected.
Will we gain any insights from Tuesday’s RBA minutes release? The minutes will indicate that the Board discussed the possibility of a rate hike, but that isn’t really news since the Board did the same thing at the previous two meetings. If the minutes show that the RBA has little appetite for a rate cut, that could send the Australian dollar lower as the markets are at odds with Bullock’s hawkish message.
The markets have fully priced in a rate cut of 25 basis points in November and expect further cuts early in 2025. The rate statement noted that inflation remained too high and was coming down slower than expected.
China will announce its loan prime rates (LPR) on early Tuesday. A month ago, China’s central bank surprised the markets and lowered the rates for the one-year and five-year LPRs for the first time in close to a year. The central bank is expected to maintain the one-year LPR at 3.35% and the five-year loan rate at 3.85%.
AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6691. Close by, there is resistance at 0.6713
0.6650 and 0.6628 are the next support levels
Levels discussed on Livestream 19th August19th August
DXY: Looking for reaction at 102 support, needs to stay below 102.35, beyond 102 could trade down to 101.45
NZDUSD: Buy 0.61 SL 20 TP 50
AUDUSD: Buy 0.6720 SL 25 TP 75
GBPUSD: Retest 1.29 Buy 1.2915 SL 25 TP 55
EURUSD: Sell 1.0985 SL 25 TP 90
USDJPY: Wait for retracement to complete, Sell 146.80 L 40 TP 150
USDCHF: Sell 0.8610 SL 20 TP 50
USDCAD: Sell 1.3680 SL 15 TP 45
Gold: Break 2510 could trade up to 2520
Bearish reversal?The Aussie (AUD/USD) is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support.
Pivot: 0.6716
1st Support: 0.6641
1st Resistance: 0.6797
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AUDUSD - Bullish Continuation / Fib EntryFX:AUDUSD is showing signs of a bullish continuation after rebounding from a significant support zone and continuing the higher highs and higher lows rally. A pullback to the buy zone offers a favorable risk-reward ratio for a long position. Traders should consider entering within the highlighted buy zone, with a stop loss set below 0.65604 anticipating continuation of the bullish momentum!
AUDUSD Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
Risk Disclaimer:
Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
AUDUSD Breakout And Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring AUDUSD for a selling opportunity around 0.67500 zone, AUDUSD was trading in an uptrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 0.67400 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
AUD/USD breaks outThe US dollar selling resumed and the AUD/USD having outperformed yesterday on the back of stronger Aussie data, has broken out above 0.6635-45 resistance just now. Can it hold its gains into the close? The breakout certainly suggests more gains could be on the way in the early parts of next week. Apart from PMI data, there is not much Aussie data to look forward to next week. So, the focus will be on the People’s Bank of China on Tuesday, followed by global PMIs on Wednesday and then the Jackson Hole Symposium at the end of the week. Can the AUD/USD extend its rise towards the July high near 0.6800?
PBOC interest rate decision
Chinese investors are looking at a relatively calm week following the release of important data in the preceding weeks. Overall, we saw mixed-to-weak data pointers, underscoring the need to lower interest rates. The People’s Bank of China last month cut interest rates in a surprise move. The 1-y Loan Prime Rate, which commercial banks use to lend to households and businesses, was trimmed to 3.35% from 3.45%, while 5-y Loan Prime Rate, which is an interest rate applied by commercial banks for mortgage loans, was trimmed to 3.85% from 3.95%. This time, no changes are expected, as the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and 7-day reverse repo rates have remained steady throughout August.
Jackson Hole Symposium
The Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, draws central bankers, finance ministers, and financial market participants from across the globe. The Fed has historically used this convention to signal major policy changes. Are we going to see the biggest hint yet that the FOMC will embark on a rate cutting cycle starting at their 18 September meeting? Recent data showing stronger retail sales and jobless claims indicate that a 25-basis point cut at the September FOMC meeting seems more probable than a 50-basis point reduction that was priced in a couple of weeks ago. However, given the Fed’s increasing emphasis on the labour market, the upcoming non-farm jobs report on September 6 will be crucial in determining the final decision.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com
XAU/USD : Gold Will Fall ? (READ THE CAPTION)By reviewing the 2-hour gold chart, we see that, as expected, gold entered the $2470 range and then experienced a sharp drop, correcting by 380 pips down to $2432! This was one of the most exciting analyses of the week. Currently, the price is trading around $2471, and we need to watch closely to see if it will get rejected again from the $2471 to $2477 range.
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The Main Analysis :
AUD/USD BEARISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| SHORT
Hello, Friends!
AUD-USD uptrend evident from the last 1W green candle makes short trades more risky, but the current set-up targeting 0.660 area still presents a good opportunity for us to sell the pair because the resistance line is nearby and the BB upper band is close which indicates the overbought state of the AUD/USD pair.
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Option market predicting a drop in AUD
Hey everyone! We've got some data from the CME Exchange for August 13th. We're looking at option sentiment, which is meant to fall quotes in the 0.63 area within 30-40 days (the option portfolio's shown in the screenshot).
It makes sense because there's a lot of bearish liquidity in that area, as confirmed by the price action there.But keep in mind that retail activity's contrarian indicator is still showing market bullish sentiment.
You need to wait for the graphics to confirm it's time to lower the prices.
Possible Inverted Head & Shoulder on DXY15th August
DXY: Possible Inverted Head & Shoulder forming (retail sales data pending), price above 102.70 can trade up to 102.90. Below 102.45, invalidates IHS, could trade down to 102 support.
NZDUSD: Sell 0.5985 SL 20 TP 40
AUDUSD: Likely range bound, Buy 0.6585 SL 20 TP 60
GBPUSD: Buy 1.2875 SL 25 TP 60
EURUSD: Sell 1.0990 SL 20 TP 45
USDJPY: Could continue to consolidate, watch for reaction at 146 and 148.
USDCHF: Sell 0.8620 SL 20 TP 60
USDCAD: Sell 1.3690 SL 20 TP 55
Gold: Above 2460 could trade up to 2480. Below 2460, break 2450 could trade down to 2430.
AUDUSD: Bearish Stocks and Trend BreakoutHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring AUDUSD for a selling opportunity around 0.66000 zone, AUDUSD was trading in an uptrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 0.66000 support and resistance zone.
We would like to consider the current bearish bias on stocks, due to the positive correlation AUDUSD should trade under pressure.
Trade safe, Joe.
Bullish bounce?AUD/USD is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could potentially bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.6567
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level which is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.6514
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level which lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 0.6641
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
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AUD/USD at Critical Resistance: Will the Bears Take Control?In the 4-hour chart for AUD/USD, we observe a critical test of resistance at the 0.66386 level, marked by the purple zone.
The pair has been rallying off a rising trendline, creating a series of higher lows, signaling strong bullish momentum.
However, the price action near the resistance level indicates a potential rejection, as seen with the formation of a doji candle, which suggests indecision in the market. This could be the first sign of weakening bullish momentum, with the possibility of a reversal.
If the price fails to break and sustain above the 0.66386 resistance, we might see a pullback toward the first support level at 0.65555. A break below this support could accelerate the downward movement, targeting the next support levels at 0.64800 and 0.64374.
On the flip side, if the pair manages to break above 0.66386, the next bullish target would be significantly higher, but this would require strong bullish momentum and possibly new catalysts from economic data or market sentiment.
AUDUSD: Bearish Continuation & Short Trade
AUDUSD
- Classic bearish setup
- Our team expects bearish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short AUDUSD
Entry Point - 0.6618
Stop Loss - 0.6663
Take Profit - 0.6528
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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AUD/USD faces key test with US CPI and Aussie jobs data loomingThe AUD/USD has found a bit of resistance around the 0.6640/0.6650 area ahead of the release of US CPI shortly.
The small pullback is largely due to profit-taking ahead of US inflation data and Australian employment data due for release in the early hours of Thursday. The underlying trend is bullish and so long as we don't see a hot inflation report from the US, the path of least resistance would remain to the upside.
The trend turned bullish on the Aussie ever since it created a false break reversal pattern beneath prior low around 0.6362. The sharp recovery from that level once it was reclaimed has lifted rates above several levels, including the 0.6500, 0.6565 and the 200-day average around 0.6600. These are now the key support levels to watch, especially the 0.6600 handle.
As mentioned, the focus is now turning to US inflation data. Following a weaker PPI report on Tuesday, investors will be hoping for a weaker CPI print today compared to a headline and core prints of +0.2% m/m expected (or 3.0% y/y for headline CPI).
If seen, or even if the data is line with forecasts, this could further cement expectations for a 50-basis point rate reduction in September and a total of 100 bp cuts for 2024. This scenario should further boost the AUD/USD outlook.
However, a strong print, which is evidently not priced in, could have a big negative impact on this and other major FX pairs.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com
Market Analysis: AUD/USD RalliesMarket Analysis: AUD/USD Rallies
AUD/USD is consolidating gains near the 0.6620 zone.
Important Takeaways for AUD/USD Analysis Today
- The Aussie Dollar started a downside correction from 0.6640 against the US Dollar.
- There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at 0.6610 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from the 0.6500 support. The Aussie Dollar was able to clear the 0.6580 resistance to move into a positive zone against the US Dollar.
There was a close above the 0.6600 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the pair tested the 0.6640 zone. A high was formed near 0.6642 and the pair is now correcting gains.
There was a move below the 0.6630 level. The pair declined below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6579 swing low to the 0.6642 high. On the downside, initial support is near a key bullish trend line at 0.6610.
The next major support is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6579 swing low to the 0.6642 high at 0.6600.
If there is a downside break below the 0.6600 support, the pair could extend its decline toward the 0.6580 level. Any more losses might signal a move toward 0.6545.
On the upside, the AUD/USD chart indicates that the pair is now facing resistance near 0.6640. The first major resistance might be 0.6650. An upside break above the 0.6650 resistance might send the pair further higher.
The next major resistance is near the 0.6700 level. Any more gains could clear the path for a move toward the 0.6740 resistance zone.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST AUG 12-16: USD EUR GBP AUD NZD CAD CHF JPYThis is Part 2 of the Weekly Forex Forecast for AUG 12-16th.
In this video, we will cover:
USD Index, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF, USDJPY
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