The Aussie has a strong bearish momentum, could it drop further?The price is rising towards the pivot which is a pullback resistance and could drop to the pullback support.
Pivot: 0.6250
1st Support: 0.6144
1st Resistance: 0.6301
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
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The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
AUDUSD
AUDUSD (4H) UT ANALYSIS🔹 Current Market Overview:
The AUD/USD pair is trading at a current price of 0.62085 . Recent price movements suggest consolidation near this level, forming a potential base for upward momentum.
📈 Buy Signal Details:
Entry Price: 0.6243
Stop Loss: 0.61994
Take Profit: 0.62866
🔹 Key Observations:
Trend Analysis:
The pair is recovering from oversold conditions on the 4-hour timeframe.
RSI indicates neutral-to-bullish momentum, currently hovering near the 50-55 range .
Support and Resistance Levels:
Strong support identified at 0.6190–0.6200 .
Immediate resistance is observed at 0.6240–0.6250 , aligning with our entry point.
Volume Analysis:
Buying pressure is building, with consistent above-average volume near 0.6200 .
🔹 Strategy Commentary:
A break above 0.6243 confirms bullish momentum and validates the buy entry.
A well-placed stop loss at 0.61994 ensures minimal downside risk.
The take-profit target at 0.62866 aligns with the upper channel of recent price action, offering a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.
🔹 Risk Management Tips:
Consider monitoring economic events that may impact AUD, such as commodity price trends or Reserve Bank of Australia announcements.
Adjust your position size based on your risk tolerance, ensuring the total loss from the stop loss remains within your acceptable limits.
AUDUSD - ANALYSIS👀 Observation:
Hey traders! Here’s my analysis for the AUD/USD pair. I’m currently expecting a small pullback before the price continues its downward trend. My first target for this move is between 0.60780 and 0.60430 .
However, if the Australian Dollar breaks above 0.63022 on the 1H timeframe and holds, I anticipate a pullback towards higher levels on the higher timeframes.
📉 Expectation:
Downward movement towards 0.60780 - 0.60430 , unless 0.63022 is broken.
If 0.6322 is broken to the upside, expect a pullback on higher timeframes.
💡 Key Levels to Watch:
Target Range: 0.60780 - 0.60430
Resistance to break: 0.63022
💬 What’s your take on AUD/USD? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below!
Trade safe
Weekly FOREX Forecast Jan 20-24thThis is an outlook for the week of Jan 20-24th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
USD Index
EURUSD
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
CAD, USDCAD
CHF, USDCHF
JPY, USDJPY
The USD is at a higher time frame Supply Zone. This coincides with the Inauguration Day for Trump. The USD Index will potentially start to turn over here, if the 2016 Inauguration Day is used as a model. No selling until a bearish break of structure! But stay vigilant, and be careful buying into a HTF Supply Zone!
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
AUD/USD: Neutrality Emerges in the Bearish ChannelThe dominance of the US dollar, driven by expectations of a high interest rate (4.5%) from the Federal Reserve as the annual CPI (2.9%) remains far from the 2% target , has weakened the Australian dollar in the short term. The AUD/USD has lost 11% of its value since late September 2024, and for now, neutrality has taken over the market as the next Federal Reserve decision (January 29) approaches.
Bearish Channel
The bearish channel stands out as the most significant technical formation on the chart currently. The price has consistently adhered to oscillations between the channel’s upper and lower boundaries. However, recent minor bullish corrections have led to price stagnation near the support zone, which aligns with the channel's current upper boundary. Over time, this could challenge the integrity of the bearish formation, particularly if short-term buying pressure continues to build.
Neutral Movements
The ADX indicator line remains above the neutral zone of 20 but has started to decline steadily from its recent highs in the 40 range.
The TRIX line continues to oscillate below the neutral 0 zone, indicating that the average movements of the exponential moving averages have been predominantly bearish. However, the line’s slope has turned positive and is gradually approaching the neutral zone in the short term.
Both indicator trends suggest that the long bearish momentum might be experiencing a period of exhaustion, coinciding with the neutrality generated by the current support zone. If this effect persists, the existing bearish channel may struggle to generate new lows in the coming sessions.
Key Levels
0.62906: Current resistance level. Persistent oscillations near this level could ultimately invalidate the current bearish channel formation dominating the chart.
0.61929: A key support level, responsible for halting the long bearish trend. It aligns with recent weekly lows and the upper boundary of the bearish channel. Sustained oscillations below this level could signal a new phase of selling pressure and revive the current bearish trend.
By Julian Pineda, CFA - Market Analyst
AUDUSD: Channel Down targeting 0.61000AUDUSD is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 41.051, MACD = -0.004, ADX = 18.547) as it is trading inside a 3 month Channel Down. As long as it is below the 4H MA200, the trend remains bearish and according to the 4H RSI fractal we are on November 25th 2024 levels. Sell the next bounce (TP = 0.61000).
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EURUSD GOING UPEUR/USD: Why It’s Heading Higher
Technical Analysis:
The EUR/USD is showing bullish momentum, breaking above key resistance levels. The pair is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, confirming an uptrend. A bullish crossover in the MACD and rising RSI suggest further upside potential. Key resistance is at 1.10, with support holding strong at 1.085. A breakout above 1.10 could open the path toward 1.12.
Fundamental Analysis:
The Euro is supported by robust economic data, including better-than-expected PMI figures and hawkish signals from the ECB. Meanwhile, the USD is under pressure as the Fed signals a pause in rate hikes amid cooling inflation. Diverging monetary policies and improving sentiment in the Eurozone favor further EUR/USD gains.
Keep an eye on upcoming ECB speeches and U.S. employment data for potential volatility.
#AUDUSD WEEKLYAUDUSD (Weekly Timeframe) Analysis
Market Structure:
The price is currently testing a channel support level that has consistently acted as a strong base for upward movements in the past. This indicates a potential area for bullish momentum to emerge if the support holds.
Forecast:
A buy opportunity is anticipated if the price confirms a bounce from the channel support, signaling a potential move toward the upper boundary of the channel.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Entry Zone: Near the channel support level after confirmation of a bounce.
- Risk Management:
- Stop Loss: Placed below the channel support to limit downside risk in case the pattern fails.
- Take Profit: Target the midline or the upper boundary of the channel for potential upside gains.
Market Sentiment:
The price action at the channel support reflects a possible bullish sentiment, with buyers likely to regain control if the support remains intact. Waiting for confirmation of a bounce is recommended before entering the trade to ensure alignment with market direction.
#AUDUSD 1HAUDUSD (1H Timeframe) Analysis
Market Structure:
The price has broken below a key trendline support, indicating a potential shift in market momentum toward the downside. The breakdown suggests that buyers could not maintain control, and selling pressure has begun to dominate.
Forecast:
A sell opportunity may arise if the price retests the broken trendline as resistance and confirms rejection, signaling further bearish movement.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Entry Zone: After the price retests the broken trendline and shows signs of rejection.
- Risk Management:
- Stop Loss: Placed above the retest level or the recent swing high to manage risk.
- Take Profit: Target the next support levels or significant price zones below for potential downside objectives.
Market Sentiment:
The breakdown of the trendline support highlights a bearish sentiment in the short term. Waiting for a retest provides a more strategic entry point, minimizing risk and aligning with market confirmation. Proper risk management is essential.
Bearish drop?The Aussie (AUD/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support that lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Pivot: 0.6218
1st Support: 0.6181
1st Resistance: 0.6246
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
USD/JPY : Ready for more Fall?! (READ THE CAPTION)Upon analyzing the USD/JPY chart in the daily time frame, we see that the pair is currently trading around the 157.060 level. Given the recent price action, I anticipate a significant correction in USD/JPY in the near future.
The first potential target for this decline is 156.25, so keep a close eye on this level! Stay tuned for updates as we track this movement together.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments below!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
AUDJPY GOING DOWNWe almost had the first part (you can take a look at the blue arrow on the 3rd of January), and it indeed reached the exact price we wanted it to (red dotted line)
However it has come back up since then, which shows that there's still a high buying volume for this asset.
But at some point, it is to come down and break the first red to reach the second lower red.
We made two possibilities for you to get the scheme.
GOLD MICRO ANALYSISAnd this is what the micro view looks like. If you've not seen our precedent post on the macro view, you should check it out so you get the global scheme of the move.
The red line has to be reached at some point over the next few weeks, maybe even days, because Gold has a "desert area" to cross : this is the area where there's no blue lines, which are basic KL.
What we believe is that when there 's no or not enought KL, the price moves way faster, hence the green drawing.
Could the Aussie bounce from here?The price is falling towards the pivot which lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 0.6182
1st Support: 0.6159
1st Resistance: 0.6243
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
AUDUSD Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring AUDUSD for a selling opportunity around 0.62600 zone, AUDUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.62600 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
AUDUSD Retest of Key breakout area at 0.62060-Fakeout or Retest.Following US CPI coming out as expected, (showing a slight uptick in inflation for December) TVC:DXY pushed back to 108.6-108.4 area:
-> A rising wedge was identified on AUD/USD with an exit on the upside following CPI release.
-> Aussie is trading at a key area around 0.6260, whether it will be a retest of the top of the wedge or a reclaim of this resistance and become a fakeout is still to be determined.
Bulls narrative:
-> Bulls see the current set up as a breakout from a wedge followed by a three leg pullback (5 min the time frame), they want a retest of 0.6260 followed by a follow through buying around 0.6260 and a reclaim of the 5 min EMA. bulls need to see follow through buying and consecutive bull bars. Previous 4H close above 0.62070 shows the market is willing to go above.
Bears narrative
-> After breakout there was no significant follow through buying followed by 5 consecutive bear bars on the 30 min. >A reclaim of the 0.62025 on the 4H timeframe would open the door to downside targets for at least a test of the bottom of the wedge at 0.61700. W
-> Bears want weak buying around the 0.6260 and trap bulls for follow through selling and put them in a loosing trade
For now, trade favors bulls with potential for upside targets around the daily 20EMA and a retest of the 0.62800 and 0.63000 area. If none of these scenarios play out in the coming hours, market will go sideways to down.
Aussie rises after US core CPI declines to 3.2%The Australian dollar is higher for a third consecutive trading day. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6233, up 0.63% at the time of writing.
The US inflation report for December was a mixed bag, as headline CPI rose while the core rate declined. Headline CPI rose to 2.9% y/y from 2.7% in November, matching the market estimate. Monthly, headline CPI rose to 0.4%, up from 0.3% and above the market estimate of 0.3%.
The more important story was the decline in core CPI, which excludes food and energy and is more closely watched by the Federal Reserve than the headline data. Core CPI eased to 3.2% y/y in December, down from 3.3% over the past three months and below the market estimate of 3.3%. Monthly, core CPI ticked lower to 0.2% in December, down from 0.3% a month earlier and in line with the market estimate.
The decline in core CPI was small but still significant, as the core rate showed downward movement after remaining unchanged for three months. Investors responded by raising the probability of a quarter-point cut in March at 29%, up from 19% prior to the inflation release, according to CME's FedWatch. The Fed meets at the end of the month and is virtually certain to hold rates.
Australia releases the December employment report early on Thursday. Australia's labor market remains solid, although the economy as a whole is struggling. Job growth increased by a strong 35.6 thousand in November, beating expectations. Will the positive trend continue? The market estimate for December stands at 15 thousand, which would mark a nine-month low. The unemployment rate has been low and fell to an eight-month low in November at 3.9%. It is expected to creep up to 4.0% in December.
The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Feb. 18 and the strength of the labor market is a key consideration in the central bank's decision-making. As long as the labor market remains solid and does not deteriorate quickly, the RBA can afford to hold off on a rate cut. If, however, the employment report is softer than expected, it would put pressure on the RBA to lower rates at next month's meeting.
AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6231. Above, there is resistance at 0.6255
0.6189 and 0.6171 are providing support
AUDUSD BUY SIGNAL. Don't forget about stop-loss.
Write in the comments all your questions and instruments analysis of which you want to see.
Friends, push the like button, write a comment, and share with your mates - that would be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. I personally will open entry if the price will show it according to my strategy.
Always make your analysis before a trade
AUD/USD SHORT FROM RESISTANCE
Hello, Friends!
AUD/USD pair is trading in a local downtrend which know by looking at the previous 1W candle which is red. On the 2H timeframe the pair is going up. The pair is overbought because the price is close to the upper band of the BB indicator. So we are looking to sell the pair with the upper BB line acting as resistance. The next target is 0.613 area.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Ghost Traders FX AUD/USD 4H Continuation [SHORT]Price formed a weak low @ 0.613 on Friday last week.
It looks to me that most of this rally has just been big money taking profit on short positions as opposed to any real buying pressure on AUD or we would of seen a faster recovery, not a slow drip up.
Price has rejected the previous 4H ranges BOS and close back below it forming strong consolidation.
I'm anticipating news today sweep one last time below the low set @ 0.613, tapping into a key level used in 2020 COVID recovery and the Higher Time Frame analysis heading into full swing.
Goodluck gang.
AUDUSD H1 | Bearish Reversal Based on the 4-hour chart analysis, the price is rising toward our sell entry level at 0.6221, which is a key resistance near the 127% Fibonacci extension. This level is expected to act as a potential reversal point in the bearish setup.
Our take profit is set at 0.6172, an overlap support.
The stop loss is set at 0.6133, below the recent swing low and a key support zone, providing room for price fluctuations while protecting against invalidation of the bearish setup.
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