AUD/USD: Potential Fakeout Warning
On the 1-hour timeframe, we’ve broken out of the blue resistance trendline, but caution is advised. The price may face rejection at the red resistance zone, where sellers remain active.
Waiting for confirmation before opening a short position from this zone is a safer approach. Watch this level closely for clearer signals. 🎯
AUDUSD
Aussie H1 | Potential bearish reversalThe Aussie (AUD/USD) is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 0.6246 which is an overlap resistance.
Stop loss is at 0.6284 which is a level that sits above a multi-swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 0.6199 which is a swing-low support.
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Bearish Setup in AUD/USDT: Trendline Support Under PressureAUD/USDT is currently moving in a classical bearish pattern, with the price taking temporary support at the lower trendline.
However, this support appears weak, and it is unlikely to hold for long. A breakdown from this level could lead to further downside momentum.
More bearish movement is expected as the structure remains in favor of sellers.
DYOR, NFA
AUD/USD lower ahead of RBA minutesThe Australian dollar has posted losses on Monday. Early in the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6227, down 0.31% at the time of writing.
It's a very light calendar week, with the Christmas holiday just around the corner. The Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes of this month's meeting on Tuesday, which is the sole Australian event this week.
At the December meeting, the RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% for the ninth straight time. Still, the rate statement held out hope for a near-term rate cut, based on some nuances in the language. Previous statements had signaled that rate hikes were on the table, with the board stating it was not "ruling anything in or out", but this phrase was omitted in the December statement.
The RBA also sounded more optimistic about the inflation outlook, with the statement noting that the board was "gaining confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards target". The market viewed this language as being dovish, although Governor Bullock reiterated after the meeting that the February rate decision would be based on the data.
In the US, durable goods orders declined 1.1% m/m in November, after an upwardly revised 0.8% gain in October and well below the market estimate of -0.4%. The decline was largely driven by a decrease in new orders for transportation equipment.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence index fell sharply in December to 104.7, down from an upwardly revised 112.8 and well off the market estimate of 113. Consumers were less optimistic about the employment outlook and incomes. The Conference Board report found that consumers are concerned that the tariffs proposed by the incoming Trump administration will push prices higher in 2025.
AUD/USD pushed below support at 0.6247 and tested support at 0.6219 earlier
0.6278 and 0.6306 are the next resistance lines
AUD-USD Swing Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
AUD-USD is trading in a
Downtrend and the pair
Made a bearish breakout
Of the key level of 0.6298
Which is now a resistance
So we are bearish biased and
As the pair is going up now
In a local correction we
Will be expecting a further
Move down after the
Retest of the new resistance
Sell!
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Cosolidation Approaching The Main Downtrend on AUDUSDHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring AUDUSD for a selling opportunity around 0.62900 zone, AUDUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.62900 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
AUDUSD buy Trading IdeaHello Traders
In This Chart AUDUSD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
today AUDUSD analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (AUDUSD market update)
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AUD/USD BUYERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|LONG
Hello, Friends!
Previous week’s red candle means that for us the AUD/USD pair is in the downtrend. And the current movement leg was also down but the support line will be hit soon and lower BB band proximity will signal an oversold condition so we will go for a counter-trend long trade with the target being at 0.639.
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AUDUSD - Look for a sell !!Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on AUDUSD.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bearish market structure from 4H timeframe perspective, so I look for a short. I expect price to continue the retracement to fulfill the imbalance and then to reject from bearish OB + institutional big figure 0.63000.
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Mastering AUDUSD: Key Trading Zones Revealed for Optimal EntriesGreetings, traders! Welcome to this AUDUSDmarket analysis, where we focus on identifying higher-probability trading opportunities.
In this video, I start by analyzing the yearly down to the daily charts, highlighting key trading zones, and discussing the confirmations we look for to optimize our swing entries.
If you like the breakdown, boost the idea and follow to receive more ideas.
Trade safely
Trader Leo
AUD/USD Approaching Key Long-Term Support ZoneChart Analysis:
The Australian Dollar has fallen sharply and is now approaching a key support level near 0.6172, last tested in October 2022.
1️⃣ Support Zone:
The horizontal level at 0.6172 represents a critical long-term support area. A test of this level could attract significant attention from market participants.
2️⃣ Fibonacci Retracement:
The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the larger upswing sits around 0.6042, which could act as an extended support level if the current zone is breached.
3️⃣ Moving Averages:
50-day SMA (blue): The pair remains well below this level, currently at 0.6524, signaling strong bearish momentum.
200-day SMA (red): Positioned at 0.6615, reflecting a broader downtrend in play.
4️⃣ Momentum Indicators:
RSI: At 30.54, nearing oversold territory, which could signal a potential short-term bounce or pause in the downtrend.
MACD: Deep in negative territory, with no clear signs of reversal as the MACD line continues to trend downward.
What to Watch:
Price action near 0.6172: Will the level hold, or will a break open the door for further declines toward 0.6042?
RSI divergence or bullish patterns near support could indicate the possibility of a rebound.
AUD/USD remains under significant pressure, with momentum favoring bears as the pair approaches a pivotal support zone.
-MW
AUDUSD - Very bearish for the Aussie Dollar!Very bearish for the AUDUSD. The Aussie dollar is coming under pressure.
Breakout from the aqua colored symmetrical triangle to the downside. Note the AUDUSD was already on a secular long term down trend (under the red downtrend line).
Potential price target of red arrow at 55 cents, or worse still the 48 cent target of the early 2000s (green arrow).
AUD/USD Declines as RBA Holds Interest Rates SteadyThe AUD/USD pair is experiencing continued downward pressure following the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decision to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.35% during its final policy meeting of the year. RBA Governor Michele Bullock articulated this choice at a press conference, highlighting that the interest rate has remained at this 12-year high for nine consecutive meetings in December. Currently, the price is trading around 0.6395, reflecting this bearish trend.
Market participants are keenly awaiting key economic data, including the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) announcement and Thursday's unemployment claims, along with the Core Producer Price Index (PPI). These reports are anticipated to introduce considerable volatility into the market. Should favorable economic indicators emerge for the USD, the AUD/USD could potentially approach the next demand zone. At this time, we are not looking to initiate any positions but rather to monitor the price movement and await a possible reach toward that demand area.
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AUDUSD - What message will the Federal Reserve's dotplot have?!The AUDUSD currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. In case of a valid failure of the channel ceiling, we can see the supply zones and sell within those zones with the appropriate risk reward. If the downward momentum decreases, we will look for buy positions on the midline and bottom of the channel.
Investors are cautiously anticipating the key decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting. It is widely expected that the central bank will announce its third rate cut of the year and provide projections for 2025.
Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, noted that market participants are eagerly awaiting updates from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and any hints regarding the trajectory of future rate cuts. He stated, “We expect the Federal Reserve to implement a 25 basis point rate cut this week, followed by four additional cuts next year.”
The Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting is anticipated to confirm a quarter-point rate reduction while also providing updated projections for potential rate cuts in 2025 and possibly 2026.
Meanwhile, the U.S. services sector has expanded at its fastest pace since October 2021, injecting fresh momentum into the economy, even as the manufacturing sector faces a deeper downturn. The S&P Global services index rose from 56.1 to 58.5 in December, while the manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3, marking its lowest level in 55 months.
These figures highlight a widening gap between sustained growth in the services sector and further declines in manufacturing. Factory output and order volumes have dropped at a faster pace, while the cost of imported raw materials from China has risen due to concerns over potential tariffs from the Trump administration.
Following the release of this data, projections for real private gross investment growth in the fourth quarter dropped from 2.4% to 1.2%, while forecasts for real government spending growth in the same period rose from 2.4% to 2.6%. Additionally, U.S. holiday retail sales for 2024 are expected to reach a remarkable $979 billion.
According to a recent report by Fitch Ratings, declining demand poses the most significant risk to global commodity markets if the U.S. imposes new tariffs and affected countries retaliate.
Fitch has warned that potential U.S. tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico could weaken global economic growth, particularly in China, the world’s largest consumer of commodities. This could exert significant pressure on base metals, chemical products, and oil markets.
However, Fitch also noted that China’s economic stimulus measures could offset some of this pressure. At the same time, new tariffs on specific goods, such as steel and aluminum, could increase price volatility and disrupt trade routes.
Bloomberg reported that J.P. Morgan believes the upward trend in European government bonds is nearing its end. The firm now views Australia as the next promising market for stronger performance.
Kim Crawford of J.P. Morgan explained that there is limited room for further gains in Europe, as swap markets have already priced in the potential rate cuts by the European Central Bank. He also highlighted that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s stance, which has yet to reduce rates in this cycle, positions Australian bonds for stronger growth compared to other developed markets.
NZDUSD H1 Short At Market TP +100 pips🔸Hello traders, let's review the H1 chart for NZDUSD today. Price
contained withing sliding bear channel previously rejected multiple
times from overhead resistance.
🔸Currently expecting price to clear S/R and complete the
break of structure pattern near 5820 then dump to 5750 / 5700.
🔸Previously rejected from overhead resistance, sequence of lower
highs in progress and expecting yet another rejection into double top
and also re-action with the bear channel.
🔸Recommended strategy for NZDUSD traders: short at market now, SL 40 pips TP1 +60 pips TP2 +100 pips final exit at 5750. good luck traders!
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Market Analysis: AUD/USD Sink Further, Losses Mount Market Analysis: AUD/USD Sink Further, Losses Mount
AUD/USD declined below the 0.6400 and 0.6375 support levels.
Important Takeaways for AUD/USD Analysis Today
- The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from well above the 0.6400 level against the US Dollar.
- There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6340 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to clear the 0.6430 zone. The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below the 0.6400 support against the US Dollar, as discussed in the previous analysis.
The pair even settled below 0.6375 and the 50-hour simple moving average. There was a clear move below 0.6340. A low was formed at 0.6317 and the pair is now consolidating losses. On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the 0.6340 level.
There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6340. It is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6429 swing high to the 0.6317 low.
The next major resistance is near the 0.6375 zone or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6429 swing high to the 0.6317 low, above which the price could rise toward 0.6385. Any more gains might send the pair toward the 0.6430 resistance.
A close above the 0.6430 level could start another steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance on the AUD/USD chart could be 0.6500.
On the downside, initial support is near the 0.6320 zone. The next support sits at 0.6350. If there is a downside break below 0.6350, the pair could extend its decline. The next support could be 0.6320. Any more losses might send the pair toward the 0.6300 support.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
AUDUSD - Top-down Analysis ReviewThis is an AUDUSD top-down analysis using ICT concepts along with some of my own considerations. I demonstrate how I work my way down all the way from the 12-month timeframe to the daily timeframes. Everything is relevant, especially the bodies of the candles.
Read the chart this way and have insights you would otherwise never have.
- R2F
AUDUSD Is Bullish! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for AUDUSD.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 0.633.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 0.637.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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