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Audusdanalysis

AudUsd- I expect a strong reversalFebruary has been marked by two significant breaks for FX:AUDUSD : one below the 0.6525 technical support and another below the psychological barrier of 0.65. With the pair now trading back above both levels, there is a strong likelihood that these breaks were false. As typically observed with false breaks, a robust reversal in the opposite direction may follow. Furthermore, if the price surpasses 0.66, we can interpret the 0.6480 zone as a higher low, indicating potential momentum for the pair to test the resistance at 0.69. I maintain a bullish stance on the Aussie dollar as long as the price remains above the recent low, and I am looking to buy on dips.
Long
by Mihai_Iacob
1
AUDUSD BUY | Day Trading AnalysisHello Traders, here is the full analysis. The completed correction, recovery and formation of a pre-breakout set-up hint at the continuation of growth. GOOD LUCK! Great BUY opportunity AUDUSD I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment. Support the idea with like and follow my profile TO SEE MORE. Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 🤝 Patience is the If You Have Any Question, Feel Free To Ask 🤗 Just follow chart with idea and analysis and when you are ready come in THE GROVE | VIP GROUP, earn more and safe, wait for the signal at the right moment and make money with us💰
Long
by TheGrove
3
AUD/USD SELL STOP at .6545If the price of AUD/USD declines to .6545 then it will have completed a solid M-Top pattern. This will also be a double top at .6573 where WR1 Pivot sits. All the signs are looking like AUD/USD BULLS left this market when the price returned to WR1 and now we should see AUD/USD BEARS take control. Curerntly the price is trapped between the 25 EMA and the 50 EMA on H1 and we would need to see the price break the 50 EMA in order for this trade to trigger. If the price does head south and the trade is on then we have a natural STOP above the double top and above WR1 at .6578 which would be a 33 pip SL. Target is initially 1:1 which takes us down to .6518 but AUD/USD will need to break the 100 EMA and the 200 EMA on H1 which will not be easy. The Pivot Point Supertrend is showing that the price is moving away from resistance and the Andean Oscillator's red SELL line is rising nicely. A few headwinds for this pair and 19:00 see the FOMC Meeting Minutes which will move the market and either kill this trade or advance it. Hopefully in just less than 7 hours we can get a b/e or + stop on this trade in case the news gives the USD a lift.
Short
by forextraplaces
Can AUD/USD claim more ground above 0.6500?Can AUD/USD claim more ground above 0.6500? AUD/USD has been making a short-term comeback from its 2024 low, crossing the 0.6500 mark due to a weaker Dollar. But is its downtrend intact still, or are we seeing the start of a sustained turnaround? Looking at the 4-hour chart, there are potential signs of a continued negative outlook, unless we see a break of the 100-day SMA at 0.6530. If that happens, the next target to keep an eye on is the 200-day SMA at 0.6600. Resistance levels are supported by a descending trend line currently aligned with $0.6500, suggesting that resistance at this point could hold back its upside potential. If selling pressure picks up again, AUD/USD might test 0.64797 initially before revisiting its 2024 low at 0.6452. A breach of this level could lead to the pair establishing new yearly lows and a retest of the 2023 low at 0.6270.
by BlackBull_Markets
1
AUDUSD: The USD stabilized amid the Fed's speculative cutsThe US greenback remained beneathneath a three-month top on Thursday, as marketplace individuals assessed the timing of capacity hobby fee cuts with the aid of using the Federal Reserve following remarks from Fed officers on inflation statistics. currently released. The yen, even though beneathneath stress this week, did now no longer fall to a three-month low towards the greenback on Tuesday, whilst Japan`s financial system entered recession with an sudden contraction in consecutive quarters because of vulnerable home demand. Inflation statistics from americaA shifted marketplace expectancies of a Fed fee reduce to mid-yr after the purchaser rate index confirmed a 3.1% upward push in January from a yr earlier, exceeding over the predicted 2.9% increase. Current marketplace valuations factor to no fee reduce in March, a giant alternate from a month in the past while there has been a 77% hazard of a reduce beginning there, in step with CME's FedWatch tool. The chance of hobby fees closing unchanged on the Fed's May assembly is presently at 60%. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, talking on Wednesday, stated the Fed ought to now no longer postpone reducing hobby fees for too long, although inflation is barely better than predicted withinside the coming months. Meanwhile, Fed Vice Chairman for Supervision Michael Barr mentioned that the adventure to accomplishing a 2% inflation fee can be challenging, as evidenced with the aid of using January CPI figures. The senior marketplace analyst from City Index cited that the Fed is taking a long-time period view in their course to 2% inflation, which lets in for a few deviation alongside the way. This sentiment is regular with remarks from Fed officers after the discharge of a better-than-predicted inflation document. The greenback index, a gauge of the dollar towards a basket of six fundamental currencies, consolidated beneathneath a three-month excessive of 104.ninety seven hit on Wednesday, in advance of americaA retail income document for the month January. It became ultimate recorded at 104.69.
Short
by Chart_MasterPro
A Golden Opportunity for Buyers?The AUDUSD has been on a bit of a slide since the end of 2023, but now it's shaping up to look like a solid pick for a short-term buy that could turn into a longer term move here's why. We're hitting a really important spot on the charts - the Monthly BUY zone that popped up last November after a big jump from the low in early October. Back in October, I shared an idea about buying when price dipped below 0.63, aiming for a climb up to 0.68. That’s exactly what has happened (you can check out related post below). Now, if you take a look at the Daily chart below, you'll notice the price is starting to slow as it gets closer to the 0.645 support level, which was a previous resistance area. What’s got me interested in this BUY idea is just as we touched the 0.645 support this week, my TRFX indicator popped up with a strong bullish signal. And when we zoom into the 4-hour charts, we're seeing even more buy signals occurring alongside slowly momentum. All this is telling me it’s a pretty good time to think about buying, aiming for a rise up to 0.67 or even higher. I’m thinking of putting a tight stop loss around 0.642 just in case things go south. But, if it does drop below 0.64, that might just be another chance to buy, as it could mean a deeper dip into the Monthly BUY zone. For now, I’m getting in on this pair and will keep an eye on how things unfold. Hope you found this interesting!
Long
by TheFxAce
12
AUDUSD: USD reached its highest level in 8 weeksThe US Dollar Index rose to 104.18, its highest level since December 2023. The US jobs report released on Friday (February 2) far exceeded market expectations. This information reinforced Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's statement at the end of the agency's policy meeting last week that an interest rate cut in March 2024 was unlikely. Expert Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, said that the optimistic US jobs report basically showed that an interest rate cut in March 2024 is very fragile. According to CME's FedWatch tool, traders are assessing just a 20% chance that the Fed could begin easing interest rates in March 2024, compared with nearly 50% a week ago. The possibility of cutting interest rates in May 2024 is also possible. Currency expert Carol Kong at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) said that the USD is likely to stabilize at its recent increase. US Treasury bond yields also skyrocketed due to expectations that interest rates will increase in the long term. Benchmark 10-year yield increased 5 basis points to 4.0829%
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
AudUsd could drop under 0.63 againFor the past 3 years, AudUsd has been in a downtrend, with the pair dropping almost 2,000 pips from its peak in February 2021, which was around the 0.8 zone. In November 2023, the pair initiated a reversal from a support zone, and by December, it even broke above the descending trend line, reaching a horizontal resistance level at 0.69. However, this upward breakout, initially perceived as a reversal of the downtrend, turned out to be a false break. AudUsd dropped back below the descending trend line, signaling strong bearish implications. Currently, the Australian dollar is hovering around the crucial 0.65 support level. A breach here could lead to a drop and a test of support around the 0.63 zone once again. I maintain a bearish outlook at this moment and will continue to do so as long as the pair remains below 0.66.
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
AUD/USD remains trapped beneath its 200-day EMAAUD/USD fell from the late-December high to mid-January low in a fairly straight line, so it is no surprise to see prices have consolidated. However, the consolidation cannot last forever so we're looking for its next directional. Given the Aussie has failed to rally despite 'good news' from China, perhaps a spell of bad news could send it lower. That, or a softer-than-expected inflation report on Wednesday. The daily chart shows the Aussie has repeatedly failed to post a daily close above its 200-day EMA, and has left a series of shooting star candles along the way. Bears could consider fading into retracements towards the 200-day EMA wit a stop well above it, and target the 0.6500 - 0.6520 support zone. AN RSI (2) above 90 could also help time a short trade as it could indicate a near-term top.
Short
by CityIndex
AUDUSD: AUD/USD eased slightly, while the Australian stock markeImmediately after better-than-expected inflation data, the Australian dollar fell again. In addition, weakening inflation has also provided the market with more information about the RBA's interest rates in the coming time when the Reserve Bank of Australia has had many difficulties in controlling inflation and has only stopped raising interest rates. interest rate in November. Currently, the market is expecting that the RBA will have a 50 bps interest rate cut in 2024.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
AUD/USD’s bumpy ride to continueAUD/USD started 2024 strong, above 0.68 after a nearly 4% rally in December. However, the exchange rate soon ran into trouble and reversed this rally. I maintain the Q1 and Q4 forecasts for AUD/USD of 0.68 and 0.72 respectively. While there is a further repricing of the Fed, which will weigh on the exchange rate, investors will also push back expectations for RBA rate cuts, and I think we are getting close to peak investor pessimism towards China’s economy. Are we close to peak China pessimism? Iron prices rallied strongly into year-end and took AUD/USD along with them.. Industry watchers put the rally down to restocking from low levels of inventories ahead of the Australian cyclone season and potential supply interruptions. There were also newswire reports of steel makers operating at losses to boost employment and in anticipation of larger stimulus for the beleaguered residential property sector. The RBA vs the Fed The RBA was a gentler rate hiker than the Fed. This, along with China’s weak recovery has contributed to a downtrend in AUD/USD after the pandemic even as global equity markets and commodity prices have rallied. I think the game changer for AUD/USD during 2024 will be the relative Australian and US monetary policy outlooks. Looser fiscal and monetary policy Down Under Australia is also undergoing a further loosening in fiscal policy in the coming six months. The Stage 3 tax cuts have been a known quantity since the general election in H122. Both major parties went to the polls with them as part of their policy manifestos. The tax cuts were to unify the 32% and 37% income tax brackets for annual incomes between AUD45-200k into a single 30% bracket starting 1 July. The Stage 3 tax cuts were equivalent to about 50bp worth of RBA rate cuts, according to some economists’ estimations. This assumes a significant proportion of them were going to be saved by higher income groups. These factors will have two implications for the relative monetary policy paths of Australia and the US: (1) the Fed will be able to cut rates sooner than the RBA; and (2) the Fed will cut rates more than the RBA. So, I expect a rise in the Australian-US short-term rates spread in 2024 to give the AUD/USD a lift. Follow for more updates on the FOREX and STOCK market:
Long
by Elite_Forex