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Audusdanalysis

AUDUSD: AUD/USD eased slightly, while the Australian stock markeImmediately after better-than-expected inflation data, the Australian dollar fell again. In addition, weakening inflation has also provided the market with more information about the RBA's interest rates in the coming time when the Reserve Bank of Australia has had many difficulties in controlling inflation and has only stopped raising interest rates. interest rate in November. Currently, the market is expecting that the RBA will have a 50 bps interest rate cut in 2024.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
AUD/USD’s bumpy ride to continueAUD/USD started 2024 strong, above 0.68 after a nearly 4% rally in December. However, the exchange rate soon ran into trouble and reversed this rally. I maintain the Q1 and Q4 forecasts for AUD/USD of 0.68 and 0.72 respectively. While there is a further repricing of the Fed, which will weigh on the exchange rate, investors will also push back expectations for RBA rate cuts, and I think we are getting close to peak investor pessimism towards China’s economy. Are we close to peak China pessimism? Iron prices rallied strongly into year-end and took AUD/USD along with them.. Industry watchers put the rally down to restocking from low levels of inventories ahead of the Australian cyclone season and potential supply interruptions. There were also newswire reports of steel makers operating at losses to boost employment and in anticipation of larger stimulus for the beleaguered residential property sector. The RBA vs the Fed The RBA was a gentler rate hiker than the Fed. This, along with China’s weak recovery has contributed to a downtrend in AUD/USD after the pandemic even as global equity markets and commodity prices have rallied. I think the game changer for AUD/USD during 2024 will be the relative Australian and US monetary policy outlooks. Looser fiscal and monetary policy Down Under Australia is also undergoing a further loosening in fiscal policy in the coming six months. The Stage 3 tax cuts have been a known quantity since the general election in H122. Both major parties went to the polls with them as part of their policy manifestos. The tax cuts were to unify the 32% and 37% income tax brackets for annual incomes between AUD45-200k into a single 30% bracket starting 1 July. The Stage 3 tax cuts were equivalent to about 50bp worth of RBA rate cuts, according to some economists’ estimations. This assumes a significant proportion of them were going to be saved by higher income groups. These factors will have two implications for the relative monetary policy paths of Australia and the US: (1) the Fed will be able to cut rates sooner than the RBA; and (2) the Fed will cut rates more than the RBA. So, I expect a rise in the Australian-US short-term rates spread in 2024 to give the AUD/USD a lift. Follow for more updates on the FOREX and STOCK market:
Long
by Elite_Forex
AUD/USD Shows Strength Amidst Geopolitical Tensions and Techn...AUD/USD Shows Strength Amidst Geopolitical Tensions and Technical Signals In a surprising display of resilience, the AUD/USD pair traded higher on Monday, rebounding from the 50% Fibonacci level following a significant pullback to the support level at 0.65250. This rebound was reinforced by the dynamic bullish trendline, which has proven to be a reliable support. Notably, the price surged above the 200 moving average, while the RSI moved out of oversold conditions. Geopolitical Developments: Despite heightened geopolitical tensions and a stronger US Dollar (USD), as evidenced by a tragic drone attack near a US outpost in Jordan, the Australian pair exhibited notable strength. The incident, which resulted in casualties among US service members, has prompted the Biden administration to consider specific plans for a response, potentially including strikes into Iran. Market Dynamics: Australia's money market remains stable, buoyed by upbeat crude oil prices. The AUD's resilience could also be attributed to news of additional stimulus measures by the People's Bank of China (PBoC). The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Bulletin reflects a moderation in businesses' price growth expectations over the past six months, though prices are anticipated to stay above the RBA's inflation target range of 2.0–3.0%. Despite this, the RBA is expected to lower borrowing costs later this year. Upcoming Economic Indicators: Investors eagerly await Tuesday's Australian Retail Sales, anticipating a decline of 0.7% compared to the previous increase of 2.0%. Additionally, attention is focused on Wednesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Forecast: Despite the complex geopolitical landscape and economic indicators, our forecast for AUD pairs remains bullish. We are eyeing a take profit at the 0.6700 level, aligning with the positive technical signals and the overall strength exhibited by the Australian Dollar. Traders are advised to stay attentive to evolving market dynamics and adjust their strategies accordingly. Our preference Long positions above 0.64 with targets at 0.68 & 0.69 in extension.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
AUDUSD: Fed and BoE interest rate decisions, economic data and UEconomic calendar with market-impacting events including the latest Fed and BoE monetary policy decisions, US NFP reports, German and Eurozone fourth-quarter growth, manufacturing PMIs and Chinese services, German and Euro zone inflation data. In addition to the economic calendar, a series of major US technology companies will announce their latest fourth quarter business results. On Tuesday, Alphabet (GOOG) and the world's largest company Microsoft (MSFT) will release financial reports, while on Thursday, Amazon (AMZN), Apple (APPL) and Meta Platform (META) will release financial reports. Announce earnings after the market closes. The US stock market continues to set new records as investors remain determined to take risks. The upcoming earnings announcement of the "Magnificent 7" will weigh on the indexes due to the large proportion of these businesses and put the market at risk. Last week Tesla (TSLA) disappointed the market and fell about 12% following their earnings release.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
AUDUSD SELL | Day Trading AnalysisHello Traders, here is the full analysis. Watch strong action at the current levels for SELL . GOOD LUCK! Great SELL opportunity AUDUSD I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment. Support the idea with like and follow my profile TO SEE MORE. Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 🤝 Patience is the If You Have Any Question, Feel Free To Ask 🤗 Just follow chart with idea and analysis and when you are ready come in THE GROVE | VIP GROUP, earn more and safe, wait for the signal at the right moment and make money with us💰
Short
by TheGrove
1
#AUDUSDIn the W1, the previous corrective wave includes a complete corrective cycle, and the current motivational wave, according to its acceleration, has moved in the form of a complete cycle, which can correct itself to at least 50% of the previous wave, and then enter upward wave 3 or C, which It can move at least up to 100% of its wave. The current wave should have an upward movement and then a correction in the form of a three-wave step. Therefore, after moving up, you can wait for the return to the green box range to confirm the continuation of the upward trend. If the green box breaks down, the correction wave can probably continue up to 23% Fibo.
by alikze
DeGRAM | AUDUSD is near the psychological levelAUDUSD is trading near the psychological level at 0.66000. The market made a pullback in the form of an ascending channel. The price is in a bearish trend, and most likely it will continue going down, breaking the ascending channel. The market created the bearish harmonic pattern, which is extra confirmation at the resistance level. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
Short
by DeGRAM
1
AUDUSD: The foreign exchange market is quiet, the USD is stable Most Asian currencies remained weak on Wednesday, with the dollar hovering near a six-week high as markets awaited further signals on when the Federal Reserve would start cutting interest rates. The Australian dollar weakened by 0.1%, although January's PMI data showed improvement in manufacturing and services activity. The Australian dollar, which is often used as an indicator of overall Asian markets' risk appetite, is also trading near seven-week lows. The US dollar has stabilized near six-week highs as the economy continues to grow. Data, Fed meeting underway The dollar index and dollar index futures each fell 0.1% in Asian trade, after rising earlier to their highest since early December. The dollar got off to a strong start to 2024, with solid inflation and jobs data showing traders' expectations that a Fed rate cut was imminent have largely dissipated. That perception was further exacerbated by a series of hawkish comments from Fed officials last week. The focus now shifts to fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data scheduled for release on Thursday and data on the PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, scheduled for release on Friday. Signs of a recovery in economic growth and inflation would give the Fed more incentive to keep interest rates high for longer periods of time. The reading also came days before the Fed's first meeting in 2024, when the Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates at a 23-year high. However, the Fed is still expected to start cutting rates before the end of the year, and traders will be watching for any such signals from the meeting.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
AUD/USD Trade alert: Strong USD vs RBA's rate decisionAUD/USD Trade alert: Strong USD vs RBA's rate decision Talk of a US$278 billion (1 trillion yuan) rescue package for Chinese shares might not be enough to support AUD/USD. Countering this positive signal for the AUD is general US dollar strength, caused by a shift in the market regarding the likelihood of a March rate cut. At the turn of the year, it was priced above 80% probability, but that's now fallen to 42%. On the daily chart, we can see the AUD/USD testing on the key support zone at 0.6550 with some consolidation just above this level before the next move. Looking a little further ahead, AUD might find the upwards momentum it needs with Australia's inflation rate data released on January 30 next week, followed closely by the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision on February 5. The inflation figure is the last major report the RBA will have to consider before it meets next week for its first interest rate decision of 2024. Will they keep their rate unchanged on February 5 or surprise the market with another 25-basis-points hike and give a pop to the AUD/USD?
by BlackBull_Markets
1
AUD/USD, NZD/USD hint at a round of risk-offIf commodity FX is anything to go by, we could be in for a bout of risk-off. The yen and US dollar were the strongest majors, which saw AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY pull back from cycle highs and form bearish outside days alongside AUD/USD and NZD/USD. The fact that AUD/USD reversed at its 200-day average and closed beneath the 200-day EMA makes it likely the 2-day bounce from support we anticipated has run its course. And with NZD/USD hitting new cycle lows with a bearish engulfing day and closed beneath its 100/200-day EMAs likely brings 60c into mind for bears, and 65c for AUD/USD bears.
Short
by CityIndex
Potential swing trade long on AUD/USDLike NZD/USD, the Aussie is refusing to roll over despite a strong US inflation report. That is in itself a sign of strength. The daily chart is yet to see a close beneath the Q3 open, and the lows are holding above the 50-day EMA and 38.2% Fibonacci level. A bullish RSI divergence also formed from the oversold zone to suggest a swing low has formed or is near. The bias remains bullish above last week's low ad for an initial move to 0.6750 - a break above which assumes a move for 0.6800.
Long
by CityIndex
AUD bears eye break below 65c, but a bounce could be due firstRisk aversion reigns supreme, casting a dark cloud over AUD/USD just before today’s employment report drops. A stellar jobs report is unlikely to spark calls for an imminent RBA hike, but it might prompt some short covering on the Aussie. Besides, there are early signs of stability above the 65c zone with Wednesday’s lower wick, which saw a false break of the lower keltner band. Perhaps some mean reversions is due. Bulls could seek dips towards 65c with a stop below and initially target the 200-day MA – a break above which assumes a deeper retracement and relief rally for global stocks. However, given our bias for the US dollar remains bullish over the weeks ahead, bears may want to seek evidence of a swing high forming below 0.6650 before committing to fresh shorts. A break beneath 65c brings 0.6370 into focus.
Long
by CityIndex
AUDUSD H1 / BULLISH CHANNEL GOING AFTER FVG / LONG ENTRY ✅💲Hello Traders! This is my idea related to AUDUSD H1. I see a very nice bullish structure, and I expect a rise until the first FVG as a first target. It represents a good opportunity to execute a long trade. Traders, if you liked my idea or if you have a different vision related to this trade, write in the comments. I will be glad to see your perspective. ____________________________________ Follow, like, and comment to see my content: www.tradingview.com
Long
by GoodTradeST
2
AUD/USD BUY AUDUSD has reached the horizontal support area on the daily timeframe chart. 📈 Expectations: Anticipate the pair to re-test key support levels, as highlighted in the attached chart. 📊 Trading Strategy: This trade is based on a combination of technical analysis and candlestick patterns. It's a long-term position, so ensure sufficient margin to manage market fluctuations. Implement proper risk management in line with your account size. 🚦 Trading Rules: 1️⃣ Rule 1: If the trade does NOT surpass our entry-level (🟢 GREEN LINE ON THE CHART), Do not enter the trade. 2️⃣ Rule 2: When the market hits Target 1, consider closing some positions or move your STOP LOSS to ENTRY price for safe trading. 3️⃣ Rule 3: After reaching Target 1, avoid placing new trades based on the same signal/alert. 4️⃣ Rule 4: If the market consolidates for more than 2 days, close the trade and patiently wait for the next favorable trading opportunity.
Long
by Pro-Trading-Africa
1