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Audusdanalysis

AU:Will Positive Aussie Labor Data Hold as US Retail Sales Loom?The Australian Dollar (AUD) found support on Thursday following the release of positive labor market data. Australia's Employment Change rose by 64.1K in September, bringing total employment to a record-high 14.52 million. This strong labor data has provided a temporary boost to the AUD, despite broader market uncertainties. However, traders remain cautious ahead of the anticipated US Retail Sales data, which is expected to show a 0.3% increase for September, up from 0.1% in the previous month. Technical Analysis and Market Positioning From a technical perspective, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows a clear divergence in market sentiment. Retail traders appear to be strongly bullish on the AUD/USD, while smart money (institutional investors) has taken a bearish stance. This discrepancy often signals the potential for market reversals, as institutional players are generally more adept at positioning ahead of key market moves. Additionally, when looking at seasonality trends from the Forecaster and considering key Supply and Demand areas, there’s a possibility that the AUD/USD could experience a new drop. However, this is likely to occur after a brief retracement, as the market digests both the Australian labor data and the upcoming US economic figures. Outlook and Strategy For now, we are adopting a wait-and-see approach. Given the mixed signals from the COT report and the seasonal factors at play, we prefer to remain on the sidelines until the situation becomes clearer. The upcoming US Retail Sales data, along with other market-moving news, will likely provide further direction for the AUD/USD in the days ahead. Once the market reacts to these key events, we will reassess and consider potential trade setups accordingly. Patience is key, as the next few days could bring more clarity after the news impacts play out. ✅ Please share your thoughts about AUD/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
2
AUD/ USD ! 10/31 ! Support H4 and recoveryAUD/USD trend forecast October 31, 2024 The Australian Dollar (AUD) dipped slightly after mixed economic data from Australia and China’s PMI release on Thursday. However, hawkish expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy outlook helped support the AUD/USD pair and limited its downside. In September, Australian Retail Sales rose by 0.1% month-over-month, below the 0.3% forecast and down from 0.7% in August. Quarterly, Retail Sales grew by 0.5% in Q3, recovering from a 0.3% drop in the previous quarter. in the large frame - gold price will continue to fall back to strong support and have a larger recovery. In the context of not much AUD news at the end of the year, mainly important USD data /// BUY AUD/USD : zone 0.64800 - 0.64500 SL: 0.64000 TP: 60 - 300 - 500 pips (0.69500) Safe and profitable trading
Long
by Moon-ForexAcademy
1
I'll Long AUDUSD If This HappensI've been following AUDUSD closely, and since February 2021, we've been in an extended downtrend on the monthly timeframe. However, for the first time, we saw a break of structure (BoS), as the September monthly candle managed to break and close above the previous monthly LH. This break of structure is notable, as it could indicate a potential shift in the long-term trend. Though the impulsive move that resulted in September's break of structure wasn’t the strongest, likely due to price respecting the month-long trendline, it'll be interesting to see if buyers can defend price so that the current monthly HL isn’t taken out by sellers. While we’re seeing a large sell candle in October, buyers can still be considered in control as long as the monthly HL remains unbroken. Let’s move to the weekly timeframe to see if any interesting price data emerges there. On the weekly timeframe, as seen in the chart above, the previous weekly HL has been broken meaning sellers are gaining control over the buyers as they were able to break and close below the previous low. Not a single rejection. But does this mean we should all scream sell and short the life out of AUDUSD? Well, our business is not to be on the sell or buy team, our concern should be to make money regardless of the market trend. To do that, we need to look for patterns that suggest the probability of one outcome over another. That’s exactly why we’re doing this top-down analysis. So far, from the monthly timeframe down to the weekly, nothing has clearly indicated where we should buy or sell, even though we’re seeing strong red impulsive candles. Next, let's check the daily. Now, take a look at that pattern on the daily timeframe. What pattern is that? A bird pattern? Or maybe a plane pattern. (I'm Joe King.) It’s actually a falling wedge, a reversal pattern. But does that mean we should start buying AUDUSD? Not yet. It means we should start watching for a change in structure, perhaps on the 4-hour timeframe. Only then should we look out for our entries. Still no trading decision, so let’s check the 4-hour next. Please stay with me. Still no trading decision on the 4-hourly, but there’s a plan. If price can impulsively break the 4-hourly LH at 0.66611 and stays above, then I’ll be looking for a buy on a pullback, probably on the 1-hour timeframe, where I typically look for entries. But… what happens if price continues to trend down? Since I trade based on structure, I’ll be watching for price to pull back after breaking and trading decisively below the weekly HL at 0.66220 . One key lesson I’ve learned in my trading journey is that it’s not just about price breaking a zone; it’s about how it breaks it. From the weekly, we saw price break the weekly HL at 0.66220 . But as we scale down to the daily and 4-hourly, the pattern behind this break hints at a possible reversal. What are your thoughts on AUDUSD this week? Please share in the comment. My trading rule is simple, don't take position based on what you anticipate price will do, take position only when price does what you anticipate and presents you a point of entry.
Long
by youngbossy
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: (READ DESCRIPTION)AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Bullish Momentum Expected Above 0.6660 Pivot Point: 0.6660 The pivot at 0.6660 acts as a key support level, determining the near-term direction of the AUD/USD pair. As long as the price holds above this level, a bullish move is anticipated. Our Preference: Long Positions Recommended Trade: Long positions are preferred as long as the price remains above the 0.6660 pivot point. This suggests a potential rise toward higher resistance levels. Target Levels for Upside Movement: First Target: 0.6700 This represents an intermediate resistance where traders may look to take profits or assess continuation. Second Target: 0.6720 If the first resistance is surpassed, further gains toward 0.6720 are likely, indicating stronger bullish momentum. Alternative Scenario: Downside Risks If the price drops below 0.6660: Bearish Outlook: First Target: 0.6650 Second Target: 0.6635 These levels serve as potential support areas in a bearish scenario. Technical Insights: RSI Indicator: The RSI lacks downward momentum, signaling potential for further upside. This supports the bullish outlook and suggests that selling pressure may be limited. Moving Averages: AUD/USD trading above its short-term moving averages would further confirm the bullish trend if sustained.
by CharivapaAlgo
AUDUSD SELL TF H4 TP = 0.6653On the H4 chart the trend started on Oct. 1 (linear regression channel). There is a high probability of profit taking. Possible take profit level is 0.6653 This level, which I have outlined above, is certainly not a “finish” level. But it is the level that has the “highest percentage of hits on target.” Using a trailing stop is also a good idea! Please leave your feedback, your opinion. I am very interested in it. Thank you! Good luck! Regards, WeBelievelnTrading
Short
by WeBelieveInTrading
#AUDUSD 1HOn the AUD/USD 1-hour chart, the price has reached a key support level. This level represents an area where buying interest has previously stepped in, preventing further declines in price. The support zone indicates a potential reversal point, as the selling pressure may weaken and buyers could start to dominate. Forecast: Buy Given the strong support level, a buy opportunity is anticipated. Traders may consider entering a long position if the price holds above this support, with a potential upside toward nearby resistance levels. It's important to monitor the price action closely for confirmation that the support is holding before executing the trade.
Long
by PIPSFIGHTER
AUDUSD - Look for Reversal Long (INTRADAY) 1:4!USD has reached a seven-week high following the NFP news, driving USD pairs downward. A correction could be expected before USD resumes its bullish momentum if conditions hold. This presents a potential opportunity to capture some pips, especially with DVX reacting to the SBR Zone, similar to the current behavior in AUDUSD. Disclaimer: This is simply my personal technical analysis, and you're free to consider it as a reference or disregard it. No obligation! Emphasizing the importance of proper risk management—it can make a significant difference. Wishing you a successful and happy trading experience!
Long
by S-Fx_
AUDUSD / AFTER BREAKOUT THE CHANNEL - 4HAUDUSD / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS After the breakout channel , the price continues to rise, indicating the market is in an uptrend and buyers are dominating, putting upward pressure on the asset. The price level of 0.689 is identified as a key support level. As long as the price stays above this, the uptrend is likely to If the price remains above 0.689, the analysis expects it to move toward the supply zone between 0.697 and 0.701, where there might be resistance or selling pressure. If a 4-hour candle closes below the 0.689 support level, it signals a potential bearish move. In this case, the price may decline and head towards the demand zone between 0.683 and 0.680. My Target : supply zone between 0.697 and 0.701.
Long
by ArinaKarayi