Audusddaily
Is it risk on for the AUDUSD? Is it risk on for the Aussie dollar? Russia launched a full scale attack on Ukraine this week and this caused a short dip in the market before a strong reversal, bringing up the prices of risk on asset classes across the board. Are we going to see a continuation of trend for the audusd or will there be a deeper correction?
BULL CASE
Price makes one more push up to 0.7350 where it meets stronger resistance.
BEAR CASE
Price breaks down from here and finds some support at around 0.695 area.
We are slightly bias to the upside. If price breaks the stronger resistance, we will be looking at a sustained move to the upside and a larger long term consolidation range.
Break of consolidation structure coming for AUDUSDThe aussie dollar traded in a sideways action this weak, consolidating upwards from it's downward trend. Shorts that have got in this week would have given up and it looks like the move on the last day of the week signals a stronger break to the downside. This push to the downside will likely find some support around the 0.69 levels before the market decides what to do. From a macro perspective, a long and rough ride to 0.675 is what I will be expecting to see. If you are able to get in for a short this week, this level is good for an entry and your stop loss should be safe by placing it on 0.723.
AUDUSD Bearish!AUDUSD is still in a bearish cycle, but I think we are about to reach critical areas. On the larger time frames there is further room for even more downside to about 0.67 which I have been expecting since late last year (2021), but currently we expect the move lower to at least break the January 28 (2022) low. The 0.67 is between the 50% and 61.8% retracements of the impulsive move higher from the March 2020 low, of which from then we can expect the AUDUSD pair to resume the bullish cycle even going to just above 1.000.
Clear downside for AUDUSD.The aussie dollar broke down this week after a fake out to the upside. We can expect to see more downside to come this week. You can either enter a short at these levels at market open next week or wait for a pullback to short it. The pullback should retest 0.715 and breakdown from there. Our full target will be 0.675 and the timeframe for this to happen within is March 15 to 16. Once the rates kick in, I expect to see a full on recovery of risk on.