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Divergent Inflation Paths: AUDUSD Set for Bearish MovementAnalysis for AUDUSD: Bearish Outlook 1. U.S. Inflation Trends: - Recent Data: The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed an increase of 3.4% year-over-year in December, the highest in three months. This rise was more than expected, indicating a continued inflationary pressure. - Core Inflation: Core inflation, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, remains firm. Notable increases were seen in used cars, apparel, housing, and car insurance costs. - Federal Reserve's Challenge: The Fed faces a difficult path in achieving its 2% inflation target. The recent data suggests that the decline in goods and energy prices is slowing, while inflation in housing and services remains high. 2. Impact on AUDUSD: - Rising U.S. Inflation: Higher inflation typically leads to expectations of tighter monetary policy from the Fed. This could result in a stronger USD as interest rates may rise to combat inflation. - Market Response: The release of the inflation data led to a fall in the S&P 500 and fluctuations in Treasuries, reflecting market uncertainty. 3. Comparison with Australian Economy: - Australian Inflation: The Australian economy is reportedly experiencing a decrease in inflation, moving towards stabilization. This contrasts with the U.S. situation, where inflation remains a concern. - Economic Stability: Greater stability in the Australian economy, compared to the ongoing inflationary challenges in the U.S., might typically favor the AUD. However, the current global economic environment appears to favor the USD. 4. Global and Political Factors: - Global Risks: Rising shipping costs and potential escalations in the Middle East could impact global inflation trends, potentially affecting currency markets. - U.S. Political Climate: Inflation continues to be a significant issue in U.S. politics, affecting public opinion and potentially influencing economic policy. 5. Technical Analysis: - Technical Indicators: Traders should look for technical confirmation of a bearish trend, such as resistance levels, moving averages, and RSI indicators. - Price Action: Watch for bearish patterns or breaks below key support levels in AUDUSD. Conclusion: Given the higher inflation rates in the U.S. and the expectation of continued Fed intervention to control inflation, there is a potential for a stronger USD against the AUD. However, traders should continuously monitor evolving economic data and geopolitical events that could influence market sentiment and currency values. Technical analysis should be used to validate any trading decisions in the context of current market conditions.
Short
by Wiiso
3
AUD/USD Strives for Heights Amid Dollar's ResurgenceAUD/USD Strives for Heights Amid Dollar's Resurgence: Navigating Market Dynamics The AUD/USD experienced a notable surge, reaching a fresh five-month high at 0.6870 before encountering a shift in momentum. During the American session, the pair saw a reversal, dipping below 0.6850 as the US Dollar staged a recovery, fueled by an uptick in Treasury yields. Market Response to US Data: Despite noteworthy data releases from the US on Thursday, including an unexpected increase in Initial Jobless Claims to 218,000, market participants seemed largely indifferent. The week ending December 23 also witnessed Pending Home Sales holding flat in November, falling short of the anticipated 1% increase. The resilience of the AUD/USD in the face of these figures suggests the pair's sensitivity to broader market dynamics. Upcoming Events and Data Focus: As we move into Friday's trading, Australia is void of scheduled data releases, placing the spotlight on the US with the release of the Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). However, the real anticipation is directed towards next week's US employment data, featuring crucial indicators such as ADP, JOLTS, jobless claims, and Nonfarm payrolls. Technical Analysis and Bullish Outlook: Our analysis maintains a bullish stance, tracking the AUD/USD's price movements. Notably, the pair exhibited resilience with two rebounds on the dynamic trendline within Fibonacci areas. The upcoming Fibonacci zone, ranging between 38.3% and 50%, emerges as a potential trigger for another bullish impulse, following a swing-style pattern. Conclusion: The AUD/USD's journey to a five-month high showcases its inherent strength, even amid a resurging US Dollar. The market's reaction to US data and the upcoming focus on employment figures sets the stage for continued volatility. With our bullish outlook guided by technical analysis, the AUD/USD's ability to navigate Fibonacci zones suggests potential opportunities for traders in the evolving market landscape. As the pair readies for the next leg of its journey, investors are poised for strategic moves aligned with the dynamic interplay of global economic forces. Our preference Looking for a Long positions with target at 0.6940
Long
by FOREXN1
3
AUD rally stalls ahead of key US PCE inflation reportThe Australian dollar’s rally has met its match around a key resistance area, which includes the January trendline and Q3 open price. A 2-bar reversal formed on Wednesday, following RSI reaching overbought the day prior. And as the US dollar has weakened on bets on Fed cuts ahead of a key PCE inflation report, I suspect there may be some disappointment and the potential for a USD dollar bounce. This is why we’re looking for some mean reversion and towards the 0.6570 at a minimum (near its 200-day EMA) or support around 65c. Bears could seek to fade into low volatility retracements within Wednesday’s range, while prices remain beneath Wednesday’s high.
Short
by CityIndex
AudUsd- An interesting zone to watchAs you know, I've been bullish AudUsd and called for a rise to 0.69 zone resistance. The target was reached at the end of the year and the pair started to correct immediately after. Although AudUsd started the year badly, the trend started in November remains strongly bullish and this correction could represent the opportunity for bulls to enter at a better price. Looking at the posted chart we can see that the recent correction brought the price down to a very interesting confluence of supports, given by the retesting of the falling broken trend line, a drop to the ascending trend line, and the horizontal support. As long as Friday's low is intact, I'm looking to buy dips.
Long
by Mihai_Iacob
AUDUSD: The USD soared amid higher US bond yields, pending key dThe US dollar posted strong gains on the first trading day of the year, supported by rising US yields. Market participants are currently awaiting the release of upcoming US labor market data and European inflation data to determine the direction of central bank policy. The dollar index, a measure that compares the U.S. currency with six other major currencies, rose 0.7%, its biggest single-day gain since October. This follows his 2% decline in 2023, ending his second consecutive year of increases. Last year's decline was due to market expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would cut interest rates significantly given the strong economy. The dollar's rise was supported by a rise in U.S. Treasury yields, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rising 7.1 basis points to 3.931%, its biggest one-day gain in more than three weeks. The dollar faced downward pressure last month after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled a potential rate cut in 2024, but Brown Brothers Harriman & Co.'s head of global currency strategy said: "The market is starting to realize that," Win Hsin said. "The US economy remains strong," he said, suggesting a "soft landing" could result in two or three precautionary cuts by 2024. However, the market is currently pricing in six rate cuts this year. As a result, the dollar could remain "under pressure and vulnerable" until those expectations materialize, Singh said.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
AUDUSD: 0.7150 is our next possible target in 2024?Happy New Year 2024. AUDUSD, has been bullish in daily timeframe, suggesting a clear move upwards 0.7150 region which is where we will exit our trade. Looking at the current price momentum it is clearly notable that price has already retraced and it is very likely it will rebound strongly in days to come. Entry can be available when the market opens where with 50-80 pips stop loss a long entry worth it. With the take profit of 600 pips, a great risk to reward.
Long
by Setupsfx_
9
USD Weakness and Potential Bullish Momentum on AUDUSDThe foreign exchange market, influenced by economic policies and global events, is undergoing a significant transformation in the AUDUSD currency pair. This analysis delves into the repercussions of the Federal Reserve's (The Fed) dovish policy decisions on the USD and explores how this has contributed to the strengthening of the Australian Dollar. Federal Reserve's Dovish Stance: In response to economic challenges, the Federal Reserve has embraced a dovish approach, refraining from raising benchmark interest rates to foster economic recovery. Chairman Powell's dovish signals have resonated in the currency markets, resulting in a depreciation of the USD. Market Analysis: Since the December 14 FOMC meetings, the AUDUSD has seen a noteworthy surge from 0.65690 to its recent peak at 0.68710. This upward trend, encapsulated within an ascending channel, signals bullish momentum. However, the ongoing correction phase suggests a temporary pullback before the upward trend resumes. Strategic Trading Approach: Entry Point: Strategically position the entry point around support levels, especially when accompanied by a confirmed bullish pattern. This approach capitalizes on the corrective phase, providing an advantageous entry position. Stop Loss: Manage risk with a stop-loss order below the ascending channel or the support level of 0.68061. This safeguards against unexpected market movements, offering a defined exit point if the trade deviates from expectations. Consider an alternative stop-loss placement around 0.67903 in case of a substantial shift. Take Profit: Set the take-profit level at 0.68815, representing the highest point in the past six months. This serves as a reasonable target for capitalizing on the bullish momentum. Conclusion: The Federal Reserve's cautious approach and the resulting USD depreciation have paved the way for potential bullish momentum on AUDUSD. Despite a brief correction, entering the market around support levels using bullish patterns offers an optimal strategy. Prudent risk management, with well-placed stop-loss orders, and targeting 0.68815 for profit-taking provide a concise plan for navigating the current USD weakness and the anticipated AUDUSD upswing. Traders can effectively capitalize on this market scenario with a strategic and well-informed approach.
Long
by fardycurry
1
AUDUSD Near Its 6-Month HighHi Traders! AUDUSD is having a strong finish to end the year and is targeting the 6-month high at 0.68948. Here are the details: After the double top at 0.68948 six months ago, AUDUSD was in a bear market for two months and then went into a range zone for three months. Last month, the market finally broke the 0.65175 range zone resistance and has been in a bull market ever since. We have a bullish view on this pair also in our long-term idea, as on the 1W chart, there has been a triangle breakout above the resistance trendline. The strategy here is to buy the market dips to target the six-month high at 0.68948. Preferred Direction: Buy Target Level: 0.68948 Technical Indicators: 20 EMA Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
Long
by BluetonaFX
Potential Bullish Setup on AUDUSD: 0.690 is next? 👀The AUD/USD pair has shown bullish momentum by breaking out of its previous range and establishing a new high. This breakout indicates strength in the upward trend. After setting this new high, the price action has entered a consolidation phase, now ranging between the new daily high and the monthly pivot point. This consolidation is a common pattern following a significant move, as the market digests its recent gains and traders assess their next steps. The daily high, which the price has recently tested, is now acting as short-term resistance. The monthly pivot point below serves as a potential support level within this new range. If the price maintains above the monthly pivot point and breaks past the daily high, it could suggest that the bullish trend is ready to resume, potentially leading to further gains. On the other hand, a drop below the monthly pivot might indicate a deeper retracement or a shift in market sentiment.
Long
by fxtraderkristina
1